Cannabis commercialization question

[BNRT]

A Dutchman then tells you that almost no one does it in Amsterdam, despite being quite legal[...]

Just FYI, I didn't talk about Amsterdam. I live on the other side of the country.

And yeah, it is significantly cheaper to grow your own weed than it is to buy it. You usually pay somewhere around 5 Euro per gram of medium quality weed. You can buy a seed for about the same money and get somewhere around a 100 grams. Even accounting for electricity costs and such, it is still much cheaper. Yet even most regular smokers I know don't grow their own weed. Whether due to constraints of place and time or because buying it is much easier. (Never mind hash, which is a little more labour intensive than weed.)

 

[Thomas]

Just FYI, I didn't talk about Amsterdam. I live on the other side of the country.

And yeah, it is significantly cheaper to grow your own weed than it is to buy it. You usually pay somewhere around 5 Euro per gram of medium quality weed. You can buy a seed for about the same money and get somewhere around a 100 grams. Even accounting for electricity costs and such, it is still much cheaper. Yet even most regular smokers I know don't grow their own weed. Whether due to constraints of place and time or because buying it is much easier. (Never mind hash, which is a little more labour intensive than weed.)

I actually thought of that after I had posted, that you might not live in Amsterdam that is, but I thought "what the heck".. Just a quick question which is fairly irrelevant to the discussion tho, does the decriminalization apply to all of the Netherlands, or is it just Rotterdam and Amsterdam? I have heard the latter claimed you see, and it seems a bit odd to me.

 

[BNRT]

I actually thought of that after I had posted, that you might not live in Amsterdam that is, but I thought "what the heck".. Just a quick question which is fairly irrelevant to the discussion tho, does the decriminalization apply to all of the Netherlands, or is it just Rotterdam and Amsterdam? I have heard the latter claimed you see, and it seems a bit odd to me.

It applies to all of the Netherlands, we have coffeshops in the east as well. Although I think city councils can decide for themselves how many coffeeshops they want.

 

[Thomas]

Isn't how much it brings in in taxes immaterial anyway? Personally I don't think the good stuff is growable by throwing a bunch of seeds over a fence anyway.

But the real savings will come from many people not being killed every year over drug money. We are pumping huge amounts into criminal syndicates that could be staying in the country. We waste a bunch of money on enforcement as well.

Quite.

 

[GeeMack]

Eh, no, you're missing several factors, like massive rise in electricity bills, police monitoring of the same and neighbours smelling the odour and then tipping off the police.
Also, urban indoor marijuana production is easily spotted by the authorities with a thermal camera. There's numerous anecdotal stories of the police doing this in Europe at least, but what I have seen the most, is that monitoring of power bills is the killer, to a point where hydro/indoor growers use gasolin driven power generators.

And you're missing the point that this discussion is about the economic implications of marijuana after it's made legal. So nothing in your above post is relevant to the current conversation. I'm sure you agree.

 

[BenBurch]

Eh, no, you're missing several factors, like massive rise in electricity bills, police monitoring of the same and neighbours smelling the odour and then tipping off the police.
Also, urban indoor marijuana production is easily spotted by the authorities with a thermal camera. There's numerous anecdotal stories of the police doing this in Europe at least, but what I have seen the most, is that monitoring of power bills is the killer, to a point where hydro/indoor growers use gasolin driven power generators.

Five plants in a small closet is not a "massive rise" in energy; Its equivalent to a new plasma TV left on most of the day, or to keeping the thermostat down on the A/C. And that small an operation would have no smell outside the closet. Nor can thermal imaging see the half-dozen fluorescent tubes that would be used. We are not talking about a high pressure sodium lamp and associated ballast, but even if we were, one lamp is insignificant. What they detect with electric bill stuff and thermal images are operations with dozens of plants and many intense lamps.

When I was in college in the 70s many people had plants on this scale in their apartments, so I have seen this first hand.

And really, they would never devote that sort of resources to a tiny operation that had no commercial output. Does not make good headlines. Does not look good to voters.

 

[BenBurch]

And you're missing the point that this discussion is about the economic implications of marijuana after it's made legal. So nothing in your above post is relevant to the current conversation. I'm sure you agree.

That too. And I assure you, were it legal tomorrow, you would see complete kits for sale in a week to allow you to do this efficiently, cheaply, and easily.

 

[Thomas]

And you're missing the point that this discussion is about the economic implications of marijuana after it's made legal. So nothing in your above post is relevant to the current conversation. I'm sure you agree.

That wasn't the point no, the point was that ben said that people who got busted, only got busted by coincidence, so I told him that there are other factors than coincidences. You're the one who missed the point.

Five plants in a small closet is not a "massive rise" in energy; Its equivalent to a new plasma TV left on most of the day, or to keeping the thermostat down on the A/C. And that small an operation would have no smell outside the closet. Nor can thermal imaging see the half-dozen fluorescent tubes that would be used. We are not talking about a high pressure sodium lamp and associated ballast, but even if we were, one lamp is insignificant. What they detect with electric bill stuff and thermal images are operations with dozens of plants and many intense lamps.

When I was in college in the 70s many people had plants on this scale in their apartments, so I have seen this first hand.

And really, they would never devote that sort of resources to a tiny operation that had no commercial output. Does not make good headlines. Does not look good to voters.

Well, the 70ies are over, you use strong light bulbs today, like 420W high pressure sodium bulbs, for measure, then my Panasonic plasma TV use 109W. Some people also use 1000W bulbs - going more pro. Using a 40W will result in a long skinny plant that will grow very slowly. Pull the other one.

That too. And I assure you, were it legal tomorrow, you would see complete kits for sale in a week to allow you to do this efficiently, cheaply, and easily.

Such kits are not illegal, and therefore already in sale.

 

[GeeMack]

That wasn't the point no, the point was that ben said that people who got busted, only got busted by coincidence, so I told him that there are other factors than coincidences. You're the one who missed the point.

And Ben was correct.

Well, the 70ies are over, you use strong light bulbs today, like 420W high pressure sodium bulbs, for measure, then my Panasonic plasma TV use 109W. Some people also use 1000W bulbs - going more pro. Using a 40W will result in a long skinny plant that will grow very slowly. Pull the other one.

And you're still under the mistaken impression that there's only one way to grow a decent batch of excellent marijuana.

 

[BenBurch]

OK, got some proof? Arrest statistics vs number of plants seized would be a good starter.

 

[Thomas]

OK, got some proof? Arrest statistics vs number of plants seized would be a good starter.

270,935 indoor cultivated plants were seized in 2005 in the United States, do you claim that all of these were large scale operations? Besides, it's not my job to prove a negative, it's your job to provide evidence that none of these were small scale homegrowers. Your claim, the burden of evidence is on you. I have lots of news stories to provide evidence of the opposite. No news at 11.

Again, do you claim that no one gets arrested for growing marijuana in their closet? Some statistics would be interesting instead of claims based on your experience with a bunch of anecdotes collected 40 years ago.

 

[BenBurch]

Show me the number of arrests involved in that? What is the average?

ETA: Because I cannot read that article due to a firewall filter.

 

[Toke]

This is a bit of a red herring*, the issue here is whether people would bother to grow their own if it was legal.
I say it depends on the taxation level, as good weed can be grown cheap.

*****************************
I am not sure how this look in a post. (not good)
Hope it does not get the whole tread caught in your filter.

ETA: Copy/pasting the schematics/statistics does not work.

*Here red herring is the pickled spiced type, and kind of ok.

 

[GeeMack]

This is a bit of a red herring*, the issue here is whether people would bother to grow their own if it was legal.
I say it depends on the taxation level, as good weed can be grown cheap.

Exactly my point since the beginning of this conversation. If legal marijuana is taxed at a rate above the value of the time and effort it takes to grow it, people will grow it. Either way it will effectively wipe out the black market, because if it's cheap enough at the liquor store or pharmacy, people will buy it there, and if it's not, after the risk of property forfeiture is eliminated, bootleggers will be unable to profitably compete with home-brewing, so to speak.

If there were barriers to entry like exorbitant start-up costs, unreasonable operating expenses, or difficulty in growing a good product, the situation might be different. But take away the risk of losing one's home and property, and the barriers to entry virtually vanish. Excellent quality marijuana can be grown for a couple of dollars per ounce by almost anyone within a few miles of almost anywhere in North America.

 

[Thomas]

Another thing is, and more relevant to the OP of this thread, is that I hope we're all in agreement that it would be lucrative for any state to legalize marijuana and tax it, because even if it's just half of the numbers I and others have digged up so far, then it's still a heck of a lot of money. Downright ending the financial crisis tho, is another matter.

 

[Aepervius]

For those which wanted to see the table linked by thomas, and since this is a DEA
statistic, i think there is no copyright on it, so I think it is safe to copy here.

for the full US :

Total Outdoor Outdoor Indoor Indoor Bulk Eradicated
Cultivated Plots Cultivated Grows Cultivated (lbs) Ditchweed Arrests Weapons Assets
Seized


4,209,086 29,950 3,938,181 2,959 270,935 117,506 218,633,492 7,697 3,998
$34,263,650

Basically over around 8 thousand arrest, 4 million plants seized from outdoor grows from 30000 plots, and about 300000 plants indoor. So outdoor is a factor 12 to indoor.

I think a lot of people in city would not bother growing the stuff even if legal, unless the price were artifcially inflated.

Heck, a lot of people do not bother make their own cigarette with preparred tobacco and instead buy much more expansive premade one. And you think they would bother growing their own stuff if the price is right ? Dream on.

 

[AvalonXQ]

Cigarette taxes have sky-rocketed, and yet we don't see much home-grown tobacco.

 

[WildCat]

Cigarette taxes have sky-rocketed, and yet we don't see much home-grown tobacco.

While growing tobacco is easy, curing tobacco is not something the average smoker has the ability to do. Creating proper smoking tobacco is much more difficult and involved process than producing top quality marijuana.

eta: but damned if they're not trying! Apparently tobacco is starting to reach that price point: http://www.coffinails.com/curing_tobacco.html

 

[AvalonXQ]

Is tobacco really that much harder to properly cure, or are smokers just used to marijuana that's not properly cured?

I would certainly expect commercial marijuana cigarrettes to quickly out-strip your dealer-wrapped joint in quality.

 

[Thomas]

Is tobacco really that much harder to properly cure, or are smokers just used to marijuana that's not properly cured?

I would certainly expect commercial marijuana cigarrettes to quickly out-strip your dealer-wrapped joint in quality.

Indeed.

Anyway, curing tobacco shouldn't be much more difficult than making hashish, and hashish is after all what a lot of people smoke instead of weed in Northern Europe. I strongly doubt that these people will begin to make their own hashish instead of buying it retail. I also doubt that they will begin to cure their own tobacco, because that should already have been in effect now, then.