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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Who said anything about 'white' blood cells? I didn't. I said 'blood cells', which means any type of blood cell. This is what I wrote, point out the white blood cell part if you can:



http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6094698&postcount=3228

Why then are you going on about white cells?

The 20% amounted to 20% of ALL the material on the blade extracted from the scratch, 20% of 0 - 10 cells. Some of those cells may have been blood cells, some of them may not. But no matter the number of blood cells between 0 - 10, 20% of that 0 - 10 is not going to be enough to register a positive blood test.

Ermmmmm.......because red blood cells are the ones that the presumptive blood tests analyse (they contain iron-rich haemoglobin, which is what the presumptive tests look for). And white blood cells are the ones that DNA tests analyse (red blood cells contain no nucleus, and therefore no DNA).

So, whether Fulcanelli realises it or not, he was bringing both red and white blood cells into the argument.
 
And your use of the little phrase "let alone how" in regard to the climb is strange and unsupportable too.
Why are you making this presumptuous deduction, that this is a "strange and unsupportable" assumption? It is valid, no one was able to scale the wall and get in through that window during the defense's test. Therefore it is not unsupportable. The test exists to back it up. We cannot know exactly how Rudy managed it (if he did it at all) when no one can reproduce his climb.

If Rudy was considering burglary of the cottage, he would have noticed the defective shutter as a potential entry point. The window above the balcony didn't have that problem. They shutter could be properly latched meaning that a burglar would have to tear open the shutter as well as break the window. The nearest streetlight is on that side of the cottage and lights up the balcony. The window that was broken is in the shadows at night.
The balcony appears to be shielded from view by a dense stand of trees, likely blocking all view toward this balcony.

http://img19.imageshack.us/f/breakinangleofobservatius4.png/
http://www.apcom.net/bin/content_3/TopNews/imgs/C_3_TopNews_74105_foto.jpg
http://blog.seattlepi.com/dempsey/library/Merediths__House.jpg

If anyone has a picture looking toward the balcony from the road clearly showing the window I'd appreciate seeing it.

On at least two occasions shortly before Meredith's murder, someone was seen lurking outside the cottage at night (once by Meredith herself, IIRC).

I don't find it hard to imagine Rudy whiled would have been whiling away some of his ample free time casing suitable targets.

And given the "thing" he apprarently had for foreign female students, and the specific interest he had expressed to the 'boys downstairs' in both Amanda and Meredith, perhaps he found the time for a little stalking while he was at it.
Yes, no one doubts Rudy was at the cottage that night or on several occasions before. I wonder though how frequent it is for burglars to break into their friends houses?
 
Sure, the police would have arrived at the cottage with a 'police carpenter' with his handy plane in his back pocket.

Why would they bother fixing the outside shutters?

To seal the scene.

How would he have known the shutter was defective unless he tried to close it himself?

By looking at it. The fact that the shutters didn't close properly would be clearly visible from the outside.

The balcony cannot be viewed from the road or from any of the neighbouring flats.

Google street view showing the view of the cottage balcony from the road.

To say it politely, your claim is factually incorrect.

And I find it rather ironic that you claim he didn't go in through the balcony/kitchen window route because he didn't want to be seen...but are only too happy to argue he did a spiderman up to Filomena's room in full view of the flats across the street, anyone walking or driving down the road, anyone on the top level of the car park across the road or anyone entering the cottage via the drive or indeed anyone exiting the cottage.

Your bogus claim about the balcony not being visible indicates you don't really understand the layout of the cottage and it's relationship to other buildings in the area.
 
Where was Rudy's rucksak then? And why did he leave with it so empty?


In case you hadn't noticed, a young woman was murdered in that cottage between the time when Rudy arrived there and when he left. Many of his plans had probably changed as a result.
 
Which deductions of mine are you referring to here?

Well, let's see, how about this one;

"Any woman (and any man who has any experience whatsoever of removing women's bras) will confirm that there is only one normal way to undo a rear bra clasp."

I think that was rather an extraordinary claim, amusing too.
 
red cells have hemoglobin;white cells have DNA

Who said anything about 'white' blood cells? I didn't. I said 'blood cells', which means any type of blood cell. This is what I wrote, point out the white blood cell part if you can:



http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=6094698&postcount=3228

Why then are you going on about white cells?

The 20% amounted to 20% of ALL the material on the blade extracted from the scratch, 20% of 0 - 10 cells. Some of those cells may have been blood cells, some of them may not. But no matter the number of blood cells between 0 - 10, 20% of that 0 - 10 is not going to be enough to register a positive blood test.

If you want to argue that the cells were not blood, then you must invoke magic cleaning fluid that can remove or destroy blood cells but not other cells. Or this fluid must have the strange property of not being able to flow into small imperfections along the surface of the knife. Neither one is credible.

But let’s go back to what you originally wrote, “And only if your exceptionally lucky and win the odds the maximum you may expect is 'one' blood cell. Of course you're never going to get a positive with a blood test.” Your argument is that there were at most 10 cells, and only 20% were used in the TMB test. Let’s assume for simplicity that half of the cells were blood and half were not; this would leave us with one cell. Because you were speaking about the number of cells derived from a DNA study, this hypothetical one cell must be a white cell, inasmuch as red blood cells do not contain DNA. Taking LJ’s ratio of 800 red cells per one white cell as a given, this implies 800 red blood cells, not one cell. TMB reacts with hemoglobin in red blood cells. True, you did not use the words “red” or “white,” but if you had, you might have seen your error sooner.

Let’s review your overall scientific record, including the previous thread. You essentially asserted that courts could rule spectroscopic noise out of existence. I wish I could remove spectroscopic noise from my experiments by decree, but it is not possible. You wrote, “Hardly. Pathogens 'multiply', DNA does not.” This is patently false with respect to polymerase chain reaction, a key step in forensic DNA analysis. Each cycle of PCR can double the amount of DNA present. Now comes your erroneous blood cell argument. Three strikes and you are out in anyone’s baseball game.
 
strangulation

halides1,

I do not think you will find any real world legal cases to back up your expectations, since this is an area which is still being investigated with more recent academic studies into DNA left on a victim after an assault.

Odeed,

In this strangulation case from the Detroit, MI area, there was DNA evidence, but the police are being tight-lipped with respect to the details. I asked the reporter, and he believed that the medical examiner collected the evidence.

There is also a case from Chicago, but again details are lacking.
 
I think "Dan O" (along with others) is wrong here. His assertion is that the key mechanism is somehow linked to the spring latch bolt, so that the door could be opened from the outside without the key, even if the spring latch were operating as intended.

But an analysis of the types of exterior door locks available for sale shows none which link the lever-handle-operated spring latch to the key mechanism. In fact, the descriptions explicitly point out the separation of the two mechanisms. Here's an example from the UK's biggest DIY superstore website (note the "additional information" section for the explicit separation of the deadbolt and the latch):

http://www.diy.com/diy/jsp/bq/nav.jsp?action=detail&fh_secondid=9276755&fh_view_size=10&fh_start_index=70&fh_eds=%3f&fh_location=%2f%2fcatalog01%2fen_GB%2fcategories%3C{9372016}%2fcategories%3C{9372049}%2fcategories%3C{9372273}%2fcategories%3C{9392102}%2fspecificationsProductType%3ddoor_locks&fh_refview=lister&ts=1278326148027&isSearch=false


This link isn't working for me.

Your "analysis" of merchandise at a do-it-yourself big box store surveys a relatively limited subset of available door hardware. They will have a wide selection of trims and finishes provided for a small selection of lockset configurations.

And not one of the combined latch/deadbolt sets on the B&Q website appears to allow the latch to be operated using the key.


Look at more sites.

So, this tends to support my opinion that the door furniture in the cottage was incorrectly selected and/or installed. And that there was then no option but to disable the spring latch, otherwise it would be impossible under any circumstances to open the door from the outside, without someone on the inside opening the latch using the lever handle.


No, it really doesn't support anything except that a quickly and casually made review of a consumer outlet will not make you an authority on door hardware. In spite of impressive square footage and websites such stores offer only a small fraction of the vast amount of lockset applications available in the industry.

However, if someone can post a link to a combination lockset which allows for the latch to be operated via the same key which operates the deadbolt, I'll be all ears (or eyes).


http://www.jmlock.com/arrow-a-series-mortise-lock-storeroom-ball.aspx

That took me less than two minutes to find. There are plenty more examples. I used a three word search criteria, and found it in the first catalog link I chose to open. It helps to know what is actually available.
 
Assume that the police did go over the line in an Italian interrogation. How would the suspect prove this in a system where there are no recordings, no witnesses besides the police and even saying that police abuse happened is considered a crime?[QUOTE]

Excellant point, Kestrel!
As you wrote, there is no way to prove if any of what Amanda Knox has said happened to her is true, for in this modern age where the Italian cops were listening in on her conversations and phone calls, they DID NOT even record the 1 interrogation that made her change her story.

Personally, I for one gave Miss Knox's story a lot more credibility when I first read that she was threatened with 30 years in jail, as Douglas Preston was too, IIRC, when he was brought in for questioning while researching his book "The Monster of Florence". The fact that the story of being hit is causing problems for Amanda Knox now and she STILL will not change her story and deny that it happened to her helps me further believe that it did happen. I guess she learned from that interrogation of the night of Nov. 5th/6th.:(
RWVBWL
 
I think you will find that the Corbin lock catalogue indicates quite well that all its locks which resemble the one at the cottage have independent latch and cylinder mechanisms:

http://www.mul-t-lock.co.uk/uploads/file/pdfs/Corbin/Corbin locks.pdf

The locks which resemble the one in the cottage are all advertised separate of the cylinder assembly, which must be purchased separately. The cylinders advised for all these types of locks are the type which move just a deadbolt.

Well, if they used that catalog, why didn't they just use one of the locksets with the roller latch as I had suggested should have been on the door in the first place.


Do we see enough of the door to know if it uses a multi-point locking system? This may account for the additional strike plates that appear to be visible in the new tenant photo.
 
<snip>

On the other hand, if as Mary_H has theorized, the false-positive was part of some sort of psychological game being played on Knox, what was the objective? She was already under arrest, in part due to the "false" confession" involving Lumumba, so it doesn't appear to be a very useful tactic.


The objective very well may have been to obtain information about her sexual history, although I think they could have obtained the same information through an interview with a prison doctor or psychologist. As I said before, if they wanted to give her some "terrible news" in order to obtain just a confession, then they could have chosen some "terrible news" that wasn't related to sex or to how many partners she had had.

The tactic of using the falsified test results, if it was a tactic, strikes me as something devised by a person or people who enjoy scheming, or are at least predisposed to taking the roundabout, "more intriguing," way to get at information. Nevertheless, the false positive did result in getting quite a bit of information from Amanda, and Mignini allowed the information about Amanda's sexual activity to form part of his case..

In place of the comment by Barbie Nadeau, I will provide one from one of Amanda's advocates, Judy Bachrach. She thought they might have wanted to find a connection between Amanda and Rudy:

“…And that’s just the mini-version of the mess Knox is now in, and how the Italian judicial system works – or doesn’t work. Within days of her incarceration – as few in the United States know, despite all the media attention -- the girl was informed that tests showed she had contracted HIV/AIDS. She was ordered to list all her lovers in writing, and detail in each instance what sort of contraception, if any, was used, and how many sexual encounters she’d had with every man. In very short order that list was leaked to an Italian and a British newspaper, both sympathetic (as almost all British and Italian newspapers are) to the prosecution…."

“….And as things turned out, it wasn’t true. The false diagnosis seems to be a little trick someone in authority concocted, possibly to get her to admit that one of her lovers was an unemployed vagrant drug dealer named Rudy Guede. Guede happens to be the one person correctly convicted for the murder….”

http://www.obit-mag.com/articles/murder ... manda-knox
 
OK, thanks for that. Here's a link again to the picture I'm talking about. It shows the new tenant of the cottage standing in the doorway, and you can see the door frame with the grooves at top and bottom. I don't think it's either of the two things you mention, but looks to me like an additional security lock operated by the handle (at least, that's the case with the similar mechanism on our doors), which is what makes me wonder if the outer handle was functional too. If so, it seems to me that even if the door handles didn't work with the latch, they may still have been needed to lock the door, in that you might have had to lift up the handle/turn it a particular way before the key could be turned.


As Dan_O has pointed out (and I concur), without a catalog reference to the particular Corbin lockset installed on that door it remains only conjecture as to exactly what application was in use. Further, many mortise locksets offer different configurations which can be selected by the installer, and even more which are possible to someone with the skill and knowledge to manipulate the internal mechanisms.

If I am looking at the right thing in the photo you linked, I believe what you are seeing is the receiver to a separate lock installation, unrelated to the entry lockset we have been discussing. It would be nice if there is a version of that photo available which could be magnified, as the entry lock pics were. I might be able to tell you more, then.
 
I think you will find that the Corbin lock catalogue indicates quite well that all its locks which resemble the one at the cottage have independent latch and cylinder mechanisms:

http://www.mul-t-lock.co.uk/uploads/file/pdfs/Corbin/Corbin locks.pdf

The locks which resemble the one in the cottage are all advertised separate of the cylinder assembly, which must be purchased separately. The cylinders advised for all these types of locks are the type which move just a deadbolt.


I think that you may be confusing the wording of a 'cylinder sold separately' disclaimer with your desire to prove that the cylinders must operate only the deadbolt. In all but the most low end distribution packaging it is standard practice to offer the cylinders separately. This is because most higher end users will implement their own keying schedule. The cylinder is only an appendage, like the handle trim, which might be lever or knob of various styles. What function it provides is determined by the mechanism of the lock assembly. This can vary greatly.

---------------------------------

@katy_did

LJ's catalog link may have inadvertently provided clues to your question about the additional strike plates in the door frame.

On page 6 of the .pdf file he linked to is a "multipoint" residential entry lockset which appears to be almost exactly what we are seeing in the Knox apt. entry door, including the full length edge plate seen in the door leaf itself. (That had me a bit puzzled when I reviewed the door lock pictures.)

These "multipoint" locksets ( named thus because they actuate several bolt points with the same single manipulation of the lock mechanism) are not yet common in the U.S., but apparently are becoming more widely applied in European markets.

If you look at the strike plates included on that page you will see that they are very much like the one shown i the upper frame in your photo. And from the diagram it would seem to be installed at the proper height.

The included description does not incline me to believe that the particular model displayed would allow for an operable handle mounted in the center of the exterior side of the door, but it isn't possible to be certain from the information supplied there.
 
Why are you making this presumptuous deduction, that this is a "strange and unsupportable" assumption? It is valid, no one was able to scale the wall and get in through that window during the defense's test. Therefore it is not unsupportable. The test exists to back it up. We cannot know exactly how Rudy managed it (if he did it at all) when no one can reproduce his climb.

The defense lawyer climbed to the window to demonstrate that the climb was not out of reach. You are falsely implying that he attempted to climb into the window, but was unable to do so.

When the lawyer climbed, it was the outside of a sealed crime scene. The shutters had been closed and probably wired shut. The window had been at least boarded over. Conditions far different from the night of the murder, when the shutter was unlatched when the window could easily be broken by tossing a rock.

Breaking and climbing into the window on the night of the murder would have been rather easy for anyone with some degree of flexibility and upper body strength.
 
Sorry if I missed it, but I'm not yet caught up, but can you either point out where in the thread this has been demonstrated or back this claim up somehow?

Here, on page 251, under the headings "Dispositional Vulnerabilities" and "The Phenomenology of Innocence" Kassin talks about the fact that young people are more likely to make false statements under pressure, possibly due to "immaturity of judgment" (a quality I think it's safe to say Amanda has displayed on some occasions), and that innocent people are vey much more likely to cooperate with police, waive their rights and so forth because they think that they are not at risk of prosecution.

Someone young, naive and factually innocent of the crime fits the profile of someone quite likely to cooperate with police and then make an internalised false statement, under sufficient pressure.

I think Fiona mentioned other research indicating that Amanda fit the profile of people known to have given false statements incriminating themselves in other ways as well, but I don't think she linked to it and she has bowed out of the discussion. I wasn't able to find anything that fit the bill immediately to hand.
 
If you want to argue that the cells were not blood, then you must invoke magic cleaning fluid that can remove or destroy blood cells but not other cells. Or this fluid must have the strange property of not being able to flow into small imperfections along the surface of the knife. Neither one is credible.

But let’s go back to what you originally wrote, “And only if your exceptionally lucky and win the odds the maximum you may expect is 'one' blood cell. Of course you're never going to get a positive with a blood test.” Your argument is that there were at most 10 cells, and only 20% were used in the TMB test. Let’s assume for simplicity that half of the cells were blood and half were not; this would leave us with one cell. Because you were speaking about the number of cells derived from a DNA study, this hypothetical one cell must be a white cell, inasmuch as red blood cells do not contain DNA. Taking LJ’s ratio of 800 red cells per one white cell as a given, this implies 800 red blood cells, not one cell. TMB reacts with hemoglobin in red blood cells. True, you did not use the words “red” or “white,” but if you had, you might have seen your error sooner.

Let’s review your overall scientific record, including the previous thread. You essentially asserted that courts could rule spectroscopic noise out of existence. I wish I could remove spectroscopic noise from my experiments by decree, but it is not possible. You wrote, “Hardly. Pathogens 'multiply', DNA does not.” This is patently false with respect to polymerase chain reaction, a key step in forensic DNA analysis. Each cycle of PCR can double the amount of DNA present. Now comes your erroneous blood cell argument. Three strikes and you are out in anyone’s baseball game.

Regardless of the ratio of red blood cells to white, there were still, at most, 2 cells tested for blood. Unless you can show that luminol is able to detect a single blood cell, your argument is, entirely, invalid.
 
Also, this "dropped to save money" explanation makes absolutely no sense at all. It might have made sense if this was Meredith's first week in Italy, and she dialled her UK voicemail without thinking about it, then suddenly thought "uh oh, this is going to cost me a lot of money." But this was more than six weeks into her stay in Italy.

By this time, she would either have reconciled herself to picking up (and paying) or not picking up her UK voicemail messages. Why, on this particular evening, would she have thought "Oooh, I'll call my UK voicemail", dialled the international number, then had second thoughts? Makes no sense at all.

I think we need to be careful making these sorts of claims: I could make up any number of everyday scenarios to explain such a call. Someone might accidentally hit the speed dial for their voicemail while trying to set an alarm or compose a text message they didn't end up sending, or doing some other task with their phone that doesn't involve making an actual call. Or someone might decide to check their messages, then remember they left the kettle on and hang up to deal with it, and never get around to actually checking their messages.

I agree that it would be mildly unusual to make such a call, and that a stranger messing with the phone trying to turn it off fits a bit better, but it's not exactly conclusive evidence of anything.
 
Thoughtful at PMF has posted the 2nd part of his summary of Raffaele's appeal. My reading of this is that he does a pretty good job, and seems to present it fairly, just as he did in part one. I hope he does the same with Amanda's appeal. I appreciate the time and effort he put into this and find the results to be a useful tool for me on a personal level.
Hi RoseMontague,
This morning I finally read what "Thoughtful" has posted on PMF.
I felt that this was an interesting point to ponder as far as the murder timeline goes:

"33) Meredith's cell phone habits: a rather interesting remark, namely that on holidays and in the evenings/nights, Meredith's English phone (called the “black box” of the investigation as, like an airplane's black box, it contains information about her last moments) provides evidence that she tended to send quite a large number of text messages. On the evening of Nov. 1 very little happened on her phone, which they say is “drastically different” from her usual habits, and they attribute it to the murder happening earlier in the evening.

1. At 20:56 she attempted to call home. The attempt failed because either no one answered, or she wasn't in a good zone, or the network was congested. What is surprising is that she didn't try to call home again, although she usually spoke to her family before going to bed, and even several times a day. This fact together with the absence of her usual text messages seem to indicate that the events leading to the murder started around this time.
.

Interesting...
RWVBWL

PS-I wonder if you Rose, or anyone else knows "Thoughtful" and could see if both parts of the Summary of the Main Points of the Sollecito appeal could be posted here too on JREF. That would be nice...
 
The objective very well may have been to obtain information about her sexual history,

<snip>

from one of Amanda's advocates, Judy Bachrach. She thought they might have wanted to find a connection between Amanda and Rudy:

Taken at face value a plausible reason, albeit via a rather roundabout path. The problem is that it's still little but conjecture written from a biased point of view - take out the supposition and use more neutral language and this is what we get.

“…Within days ... [Knox] was informed that tests [were positive for] HIV/AIDS. She ... list[ed] all her lovers in writing, and detail[ed] in each instance what sort of contraception, if any, was used, and how many sexual encounters she’d had with [each]. ... that list was leaked to an Italian and a British newspaper …."

“….And as things turned out, it wasn’t true.

Which largely fits the known facts and puts us right back to the beginning. You have your theory about the HIV test/psychological torture and I remain unconvinced.

What's really needed is to know which test(s) gave the false positive and what standard practice/relevant law is in in the Perugia system regarding HIV test results.

IF for example, Knox was indeed told of two false positives* (and one was Western Blot results) before a third test turned up negative AND it's standard to NOT tell the prisoner of positive ELIZA tests, then you've got a strong case.

On the other hand, if standard practice was to inform prisoners of positive ELIZA tests (and to ask them to be prepared to provide a list of sexual partners) before the Western Blot was run, then I'd say your theory is a non-starter. (Although the facts wouldn't say much for the medical ethics of the Perugia system)

As for the list, my recollection is that it leaked to the media via Knox's prison diary, not a medical form. Unless I'm mistaken it makes for an even more circuitous method to try to link Knox and Guede. (IE, "Let's tell her she's positive, but we're going to run another test to be sure. Then hope she writes in her entirely voluntary diary salacious material and/or her list of lovers, which might include Guede, THEN tell her the negative results.)

So unless someone has that information, I suspect this direction is going to be less fruitful than I had hoped.


* My guess is that the two false positives story is the result of a miscommunication somewhere - someone read or heard there was a false positive and that there were two tests and conflated the two.
 
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