• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cannabis commercialization question

Emperor_Gestahl said:
Maaaaaaaaan legalizing pot wouldn't fix a damn thing economically. Honestly I think it could even be bad for the smokers price and quality-wise. The advantage of legalization would be the separation of the plant from the violent gangs/cartels, giving the cannabis industry over to law-abiding entrepreneurs. Technically this wouldn't be for sure stimulative because criminals are part of the real economy too, but justice-wise it's a win-win.
Click to expand...

Way to ignore the entirety of the thread....maaaaaan
 
DreadNiK said:
Firstly - who says the govt will impose an extreme tax upon it? What if they legalise say a certain number of plants for home growing or some other personal consumption rule, and then aim to set the tax level to maximise tax revenue?
Click to expand...
Fair enough, I think it seems plausible that they will, at least when coming from Nottingham.. ehm.. Denmark, with one of the highest tax rates in the world.. Besides, they're doing it with tobacco, and if they can with cannabis as well, then they most likely will.
Secondly, can you please provide some evidence other than appealing to your own authority as to the relative merits of indoor/outdoor/hydro growing etc? I know it is hard to get sources on something that is illegal in many countries, but I did a quick bit of googling last night and found no clear cut evidence for what you are arguing.
Click to expand...
There are limited sources on this for natural reasons yes.. But it's quite logical that you can't guarantee a 20% THC level in outdoors weed, since you can't guarantee the weather! This is why you'll find that some seed sites doesn't list the THC level for outdoor seeds, but do it for indoor seeds - where the "weather" is guaranteed.

Another thing, is that the Dutch make their cannabis behind closed doors - trade secrets - to a point where they have been excluded to a seperate category from the annual cannabis cup because their hashish is too superior - they call it nederhash. It will be the fine wine of a possible legalized-marijuana-world. It won't be a small market, it will a market on par with fine wine and 12 y/o whiskey. It's state of the art.
 
Thomas said:
http://www.yolkstalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/WastedPotential.jpg

It looks like someone else has done the math as well. For USA anyways.
Click to expand...


Well the chart says, "Revenues based on state by state marijuana consumption," but it doesn't indicate at what rate these taxes might be applied. So since there isn't any sort of known tax structure to use for the calculations, it's fair to say the numbers are based on someone's guess.

It also doesn't say whether they're considering the fact that excellent quality marijuana only costs a few dollars an ounce to grow at home, so if the tax rates make commercial purchases too costly, people will simply grow their own.
 
Last edited:
GeeMack said:
Well the chart says, "Revenues based on state by state marijuana consumption," but it doesn't indicate at what rate these taxes might be applied. So since there isn't any sort of known tax structure to use for the calculations, it's fair to say the numbers are based on someone's guess.

It also doesn't say whether they're considering the fact that excellent quality marijuana only costs a few dollars an ounce to grow at home, so if the tax rates make commercial purchases too costly, people will simply grow their own.
Click to expand...
These numbers will always be based on assumptions due to various factors. But unless you have something better to add, then I'm going to stick with the best assumptions we have so far. You do the math, I already did mine on page 1. And for your assumption that everybody will grow their own, well, look at Holland ok, and what a Dutchman has already told you in this thread. But it didn't really sink in, did it?
 
Coffee shops in Holland also sell seeds in packs of 5.
It appears to be the legal limit for growing at home.
 
Toke said:
Coffee shops in Holland also sell seeds in packs of 5.
It appears to be the legal limit for growing at home.
Click to expand...

Illinois has a 5-plant limit of having being busted be a Misdemeanor. Now, they call this "decriminalization," but a Misdemeanor is a criminal offense non-the-less. If they really meant this to be decriminalized, they would make it an offense against the tax act and fine you the tax plus a penalty and be done with it.
 
Thomas said:
These numbers will always be based on assumptions due to various factors. But unless you have something better to add, then I'm going to stick with the best assumptions we have so far. You do the math, I already did mine on page 1. And for your assumption that everybody will grow their own, well, look at Holland ok, and what a Dutchman has already told you in this thread. But it didn't really sink in, did it?
Click to expand...


Since your assumption is based on a mistaken notion that excellent quality marijuana can't be grown in backyards, basements, sun porches, and garages for a reasonable price and in quantities necessary to support the demand, your assumption is flawed.

And I'm not sure why you cling to the mistaken belief that everywhere is like Holland. I happen to live within 150 miles of nearly 30 million acres of some of the worlds most productive agricultural land. That's three times more agricultural land than the total land area of Holland. And the state to my west is just as productive. And the state to my east does almost as well. I could pitch a handful of seeds along the fence row of a pal's farm, come back in a few months, and fill the back of a pickup truck with a year's supply for everyone I ever knew who smoked pot. And if my pal wasn't risking having his land confiscated, that sort of thing would be common.

Marijuana costs about the same to produce as parsley, sage, rosemary, or thyme. Those can typically be bought by the ounce for just few dollars, and in bulk for less than 20 dollars a pound. And just like tomatoes, bell peppers, and zucchini, when the backyard gardens are harvested, lots of people will be giving it away to friends and neighbors.

If the tax scheme applied to legal marijuana brings the total price to more than people are willing to pay, they'll grow it. Of course that price point will be a subjective decision. Some won't want to bother with growing it. It will be less practical for some people. And only a minuscule fraction of pot smokers are the kind of hard core stoners you see going in and out of the dope shops next door to you, those few people who really are stupid enough to believe you can't grow excellent marijuana in a backyard garden.

BenBurch said:
Illinois has a 5-plant limit of having being busted be a Misdemeanor. Now, they call this "decriminalization," but a Misdemeanor is a criminal offense non-the-less. If they really meant this to be decriminalized, they would make it an offense against the tax act and fine you the tax plus a penalty and be done with it.
Click to expand...


If there were no restrictions on growing just five plants per person, if people weren't risking losing their property for growing it, the marijuana black market would be effectively wiped out within a couple of years. Even without any taxation or fines, there would be a huge decrease in the state's financial burden that comes with enforcement of prohibition. That savings alone would be an economic step in the right direction.
 
GeeMack said:
And I'm not sure why you cling to the mistaken belief that everywhere is like Holland. I happen to live within 150 miles of nearly 30 million acres of some of the worlds most productive agricultural land. That's three times more agricultural land than the total land area of Holland. And the state to my west is just as productive. And the state to my east does almost as well. I could pitch a handful of seeds along the fence row of a pal's farm, come back in a few months, and fill the back of a pickup truck with a year's supply for everyone I ever knew who smoked pot. And if my pal wasn't risking having his land confiscated, that sort of thing would be common.

Marijuana costs about the same to produce as parsley, sage, rosemary, or thyme. Those can typically be bought by the ounce for just few dollars, and in bulk for less than 20 dollars a pound. And just like tomatoes, bell peppers, and zucchini, when the backyard gardens are harvested, lots of people will be giving it away to friends and neighbors.
Click to expand...

I think you're both talking about a point I made, which I like to clarify (a bit). Yes, everyone could grow their own supply, if they wanted to. Just as they could with parsley, sage, rosemary, or thyme. My point was that not everyone wants to, just as not everyone wants to grow their own rosemary. In the same way as it's easier to buy some rosemary in the supermarket, it's easier to buy your weed in a coffeeshop. It costs more, but for the majority* the monetary cost outweighs the effort to grow your own.

On the other hand, the marijuana has to come from somewhere. This is done in part by small-scale home-growers but also by larger-scale, more criminally inclined organisations. I think the latter in part because it is still illegal for coffeeshops to buy their supply. Again, I have no hard data on that either.

Now, carry on.

*I have no idea if the majority in the Netherlands grows or buys, but from pure anecdotal evidence I would say the majority buys.
 
BNRT said:
I think you're both talking about a point I made, which I like to clarify (a bit). Yes, everyone could grow their own supply, if they wanted to. Just as they could with parsley, sage, rosemary, or thyme. My point was that not everyone wants to, just as not everyone wants to grow their own rosemary. In the same way as it's easier to buy some rosemary in the supermarket, it's easier to buy your weed in a coffeeshop. It costs more, but for the majority* the monetary cost outweighs the effort to grow your own.
Click to expand...


The point is that people would be unwilling to pay for store bought parsley if the tax rate made it much more expensive to buy than to grow. And they wouldn't be willing to buy black market parsley if that was significantly more expensive than growing it at home. The only thing that currently prevents those dynamics in the pot market, in the US anyway, is the fact that people risk forfeiting their property if they are caught growing a small crop. If it were legal, that situation would change 180 degrees.

It's a little hard to keep track because he keeps the goal posts moving, but Thomas's position seems to be that legalizing marijuana wouldn't eliminate the black market. He seems to believe that legal pot would be taxed so highly that people would buy bootleg weed instead of paying the commercial price. I contend that if the tax rate is prohibitively high, people will generally grow their own and/or coop with friends. Plenty of them already do.

Thomas seems to believe that bootleggers, even though they can't grow better and/or cheaper pot than anyone else, would still somehow find a market. I contend that the object of the black market is to make money. There would be no substantial profit available to a black market since home grown pot cost only a few dollars per ounce.

On the other hand, the marijuana has to come from somewhere. [...]
Click to expand...


Indeed. And if it's significantly more expensive to buy it commercially, because of high taxes, or from the black market, because the black market requires a reasonable profit in order to exist, that "somewhere" will be, more often than not, people's very own backyards. It grows like a weed almost anywhere in North America.
 
Anybody can grow 5 plants in a small closet or cabinet in an urban apartment. In fact, many, many people do grow on that scale. You only hear about them when one of them is unfortunate enough to get busted by coincidence, because nobody gets amounts you could sell from that sort of setup.
 
Isn't how much it brings in in taxes immaterial anyway? Personally I don't think the good stuff is growable by throwing a bunch of seeds over a fence anyway.

But the real savings will come from many people not being killed every year over drug money. We are pumping huge amounts into criminal syndicates that could be staying in the country. We waste a bunch of money on enforcement as well.
 
BenBurch said:
Anybody can grow 5 plants in a small closet or cabinet in an urban apartment. In fact, many, many people do grow on that scale. You only hear about them when one of them is unfortunate enough to get busted by coincidence, because nobody gets amounts you could sell from that sort of setup.
Click to expand...
Eh, no, you're missing several factors, like massive rise in electricity bills, police monitoring of the same and neighbours smelling the odour and then tipping off the police.
Also, urban indoor marijuana production is easily spotted by the authorities with a thermal camera. There's numerous anecdotal stories of the police doing this in Europe at least, but what I have seen the most, is that monitoring of power bills is the killer, to a point where hydro/indoor growers use gasolin driven power generators.
 
GeeMack said:
The point is that people would be unwilling to pay for store bought parsley if the tax rate made it much more expensive to buy than to grow. And they wouldn't be willing to buy black market parsley if that was significantly more expensive than growing it at home. The only thing that currently prevents those dynamics in the pot market, in the US anyway, is the fact that people risk forfeiting their property if they are caught growing a small crop. If it were legal, that situation would change 180 degrees.

It's a little hard to keep track because he keeps the goal posts moving, but Thomas's position seems to be that legalizing marijuana wouldn't eliminate the black market. He seems to believe that legal pot would be taxed so highly that people would buy bootleg weed instead of paying the commercial price. I contend that if the tax rate is prohibitively high, people will generally grow their own and/or coop with friends. Plenty of them already do.

Thomas seems to believe that bootleggers, even though they can't grow better and/or cheaper pot than anyone else, would still somehow find a market. I contend that the object of the black market is to make money. There would be no substantial profit available to a black market since home grown pot cost only a few dollars per ounce.
Click to expand...
Haha, am I moving the goal posts? You keep rambling about how there won't be a lucrative market because people can just grow their own super duper weed. A Dutchman then tells you that almost no one does it in Amsterdam, despite being quite legal, to which end you switch directly back to the (highly irrelevant) black market goalpost and ignores the fact that urban people use these things called supermarkets. Your input in this thread has been nothing but a parody thus far.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom