As an addition to everything you've stated above Rolfe, are we seriously proposing that after the BKA raid on the PLFP cell in Germany in October, discovering a considerable cache of arms and explosives, and crucially, a radio cassette manipulated into a bomb, Gadaffi then formulates a plan to exact his revenge for the '86 US raid, obtains all the relevant parts and semtex, and send the bomb from Malta straight back to the heart of where these devices were initially discovered just a few weeks before: Germany, and Frankfurt Airport?
No, not very seriously. I'm just trying out theories for size. We still don't have a narrative I'm especially comfortable with insofar as it reasonably explains all the main facts as we have them, so one must continue to consider all possibilities.
The possibility that Megrahi had a hand in it can't be dismissed while we still lack a reasonable explanation for B8849. I felt this all along, but then dismissed it with the observation that we have no real clue where B8849 came from, or what was in the tray. As Paul Foot remarked, it could have been a case of wine or a bag of golf clubs. There are a number of possibilities that have to be considered as regards its origin, once you accept that the evidence from Luqa says there was no unaccompanied bag actually on KM180 - it's not an open-and-shut connection. In addition, if B8849 went on the plane, it was x-rayed by Maier. Careful, conscientious Maier who was aware of the threat from Toshiba BomBeat radios.
However, I can't get over the sheer size of the coincidence. Megrahi really was at Luqa that morning, travelling as Abdusamad. For some random piece of mis-routed luggage just to
happen to appear in the system in such a way as to make it look as if there was a rogue bag on KM180 is one helluva big coincidence. The sort of coincidence Cannistraro and Marquise would have given a major body part for, in fact. The whole business of the vanishing records and the divine intervention of the Erac printout only compounds the mystery.
So, I tend to favour the possibility of some distinctly non-divine intervention in the Frankfurt department, over this huge and remarkably convenient coincidence. The trouble is, this introduces its own problems. First, it adds a whole new chapter to the proposed conspiracy. Not only do we have the Hayes/Feraday/Thurman triumvirate in a position to manipulate the evidence found at Lockerbie, we have to postulate involvement of Frankfurt personnel - principally the BKA, but also quite possibly Erac and Berg. Second, it's not nearly so easy to pick holes in that story as it is to find anomalies in the RARDE investigation. It's a completely bizarre sequence of events, but accepting that, it holds together fairly well. Either we still have to accept a degree of coincidence in that Bogomira fortuitously saved a printout that later turned out to be exactly what was needed to support a fabricated trail of evidence leading to Megrahi, or she is one helluva actress.
Paradoxically, if we were forced to accept that the timer fragment and the radio manual were wholly genuine and Hayes and Feraday the soul of integrity, this wouldn't really to my mind give huge weight to the Libya theory, as there's no real reason Jibril's group couldn't have acquired these items. They certainly don't implicate Megrahi personally, and unless you can support the "Megrahi introduced the bag at Luqa that morning" part, you simply don't have any sort of a case. However, there's every reason to suspect Hayes, Feraday and Thurman of shenanigans, and the timer fragment and the radio manual to be fabrications.
Conversely, it's relatively difficult to hand-wave tray B8849 away without postulating a positively supernatural coincidence, and yet if you don't do that, you very definitely have specific evidence suggesting a connection to Megrahi. I'm not quite sure how you square this circle.
This is why I was trying out a variant of the Official Version, to see if there was any possibility it might fly. I like it in that it explains tray B8849, and it actually explains the bizarre purchase from Gauci, which I otherwise simply can't get my head around. It's unsatisfying as regards the timer fragment and the radio manual, as it assumes these are genuine, despite the very strong reasons for suspecting they're anything but. On the other hand, this again reduces the extent of the postulated conspiracy (down to basically bribing Gauci and Giaka to provide the extra evidence that would be necessary to get a conviction).
It also reopens most of the enormous objections that have dogged the Official Version all along - all but the 38-minute explosion, that is. We still have absolutely no idea how the case was got on the plane at Malta, despite huge efforts on the part of the investigators to crack this aspect, and actually the distinct possibility that someone involved might have talked by now. The theory provides no explanation for the disappearing Frankfurt records, though in fact such a disappearance would have been essential to the central premise of the proposed plot - that the Malta introduction wouldn't be identified, and so the PFLP-GC would take the blame. It also leaves us with the
Bedford suitcase being a huge unexplained coincidence, and frankly that is nearly as big a coincidence (if it wasn't the bomb bag) as tray B8849 would be (if
it wasn't the bomb bag).
But most of all, we have the problem of Frankfurt security. If that bomb came through Frankfurt, Maier should have picked it up. Frankfurt was on the alert for a device of exactly that nature. You can suggest after the event that Maier must have missed it, if you like, but the idea that a terrorist who was aware of the alert at Frankfurt nevertheless decided to press ahead regardless in the hope that a device still had a decent chance of getting through undetected is pretty far-fetched. (At least the Frankfurt bag-switch theories postulate that Frankfurt security and Maier were deliberately and actively circumvented, rather than assuming the device sailed through entirely unaided.)
Finally, we have the problem of the positioning of the bag in the luggage container, which was vital, but which this theory has no possible way to influence. We've really just swapped one set of problems for another, and we have to decide which set we prefer. In fact, for the "Gadaffi was trying to mimic a PFLP-GC attack" scenario to work at all, we really have to postulate not only that the Luqa airport security was completely subverted, but that Frankfurt was too, and the BKA weren't that bothered about it -
and that Gadaffi also had at least one agent among the loaders who transferred the interline baggage on the tarmac at Heathrow. This is getting just as ridiculous as suggesting that the BKA were into some sort of cover-up, following which they co-operated with Cannistraro's little scheme.
I merely want to examine all reasonable possibilities (so far as any possibility meets the criteria of "reasonable" in this case). We're not the "Megrahi didn't do it" campaign on any point of principle, and a
reasonable conclusion that Megrahi did it would be as acceptable as any other reasonable conclusion. It's not looking promising though.
Rolfe.