BobTheDonkey
Illuminator
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2009
- Messages
- 4,501
Just a thought to throw out there:
First, let's for one moment assume that the break-in (rock through the window, ruffled clothing etc) was staged - i.e. that nobody actually entered the house via that route.
Now, it seems to be commonly agreed that if Rudy Guede were the lone assailant (or even if he were assisted by other unknown accomplices), he would have had no reason to stage a break-in. The reasoning for this is that only someone who lived in the house and therefore had a key to the front door (i.e. Amanda Knox) would have any motivation to fake a break-in - in order to misdirect police towards a "stranger" intruder.
However, I think it is possible to show why Guede might have had a motivation to stage a break-in - even if only he were involved in the crime.
My reasoning would be this: suppose that Guede turned up alone at the front door to the cottage on the night of the 1st November (say, at around 9.30pm). Maybe he was looking to score or smoke some dope (maybe he tried the boys' house downstairs first...). Anyhow, it's entirely possible that he knocked on the girls' front door, and it's equally possible that Meredith let him into the flat. After all, Meredith had met Guede before (in the boys' flat, I believe, and also possibly on Halloween), so he wouldn't be a total random stranger to her.
Maybe Guede quickly realised he was alone in the house with Meredith. He may even have asked where all the others (boys and girls) were, and Meredith might have innocently told him that they were all away. Maybe Guede then saw his opportunity to have his way with Meredith. Maybe she resisted, and so on........
So, having killed Meredith, Guede might have quickly realised that if he simply left the house and closed the front door behind him, this would narrow down the field of potential suspects dramatically. In effect, it would narrow down the field to either those who had their own keys, or those who Meredith would have felt comfortable letting into the house. And in that second category, there were only probably a couple of dozen or so (maximum) people in Perugia. (and Rudy already knew that all the boys from the flat below were away).
In other words, had the body been discovered with no signs of forced entry, the police would have been able to narrow the search to people with access to keys, and people known to Meredith. Guede could have quickly realised that many people knew that Meredith knew who he was (even if only in passing), and she almost certainly knew that he hung out with the boys in the flat below.
So, with all that in mind, I think it's entirely logical that Guede might have elected to stage the break-in himself. After all, he may well have performed similar break-ins before, and would have realised that a break-in implies no link to the property being broken into. In addition, if he thought the police would buy the "break-in" scenario (one can only guess that he didn't really look out of the window before he broke it...), he might even have thought it could come to his aid if he'd been subsequently solely accused of Meredith's murder/assault (i.e. "Why would I break into the house? I knew Meredith, and she'd have let me in").
As it turned out, of course, the break-in was quickly deemed improbable - if not impossible. But I believe that even Guede alone would have had a plausible motivation for staging such a break-in. It doesn't automatically point towards AK/RS's guilt, in my view.
Except that doesn't match the bloody footprints...nor the lack of his DNA in Filomena's bedroom. While absence of his DNA is not evidence that he wasn't there...there is simply no evidence he was ever in Filomena's room after Meredith was murdered (those damned pesky bloody footprints leading right out the front door strike again