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Amanda Knox guilty - all because of a cartwheel

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That didn't all happen 'later', they had all that against them from the night of the 5th (and the stuff regarding Patrick's phone and his lack of alibi they had by the time they appeared in court on the 8/9th.

The police didn't announce all three committed rape and murder, they announced they had those responsible for it in custody. There's a difference.

Here is an excerpt from the translation of Matteini's report that ran in the Telegraph:

"It is possible to reconstruct what happened on the evening of November 1. Sollecito Raffaele and Knox Amanda spent the entire afternoon smoking hashish.

On the evening around 8.30pm, while Knox found herself at the house of Sollecito, she received the message from Diya Lumumba who, rather than simply warning her to not come to work, instead confirmed the appointment that evening, having obviously agreed beforehand that the girl would provide him with help in having an encounter with her friend Meredith;

Sollecito Raffaele, bored of the same old evening and wanting to try "extreme experiences" as can be found on his blog with the date 13 October 2007 and as he confirmed in the audience chamber (experiences that can include also an intense sexual relation which breaks up the monotony of everyday life) went out with Amanda.

The two met Diya Lumumba in piazza Grimana around 9pm and went together to the apartment on via della Pergola 7, of which only Amanda had the key.

It was more or less at this time that either Sollecito or Knox turned off their mobile phones, which became active again the following morning.

A little after, Meredith returned or she might have been already there. She went into her room with Patrick, after which something went badly, in the sense that in all probability Sollecito came in and the two started to try a swap, to which the girl refused.

She was then menaced with a knife, a knife which Sollecito usually had with him, and with which Meredith was struck in the throat


She was quite sure she had it all figured out, but what evidence supported her conclusions? How did she extrapolate from Amanda's statement, or from any other information available to her, that Sollecito wanted a "swap"?

It was all malicious speculation, unsupported by a shred of evidence.
 
not exactly a rape prank

Here's a link to a rape prank in Conn from Nov.:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/24/shu-lacrosse-rape-three-s_n_368889.html


So, ya know, it's not like this stuff doesn't happen.

All charges were dropped. It is difficult to know without being there, but sounds more like a really stupid prank that I might have done when I was in college.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/gang_rape_case_against_conn_lacrosse_VNTagFthrHrWZsBDUTQBcM
 
Why is it so difficult for some to believe that burglars can turn rapists?

just a quick google search and you find this for example:
"A burglar who twice raped a young woman and threatened to kill her after breaking into her home to fund a night of gambling has been jailed." http://menmedia.co.uk/rochdaleobserver/news/s/1234455_evil_rapist_jailed_for_eight_years


It isn't a matter of it being so difficult to imagine. It's that the actual statistical likelihood is far less than the impressions of likelihood that most people have developed from the way media report crimes. Your use of a news article to support your point is an example of this.

A similar example is found in the rush to pass laws reponding to stranger predators of children. Many, if not most people are under the mistaken impression that strangers are responsible for the majority of child abductions and murders when in reality the opposite is true. The percentage of children under five killed by strangers is in the single digits, but most targeted legislation aims at that subgroup. It would make more sense to target mothers. That one subgroup alone accounts for nearly a third of all young child murders. It wouldn't be as politically expedient, though.

Yes, rapes by burglars do happen, but overall it is not a normal pattern for habitual burglars without a record of violence. It is really rather rare in comparison to rapes by someone known to the victim, or even in comparison to rapes by strangers who are not burglars.
 
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I'm curious if there is a single person on this forum that has been in an interrogation. Everyone seems to put themselves in Amanda Knox's shoes and state what "they would do". How the hell do you know? Stilicho says anyone is capable of murdering someone on any given day. Bobthedonkey thinks just about anyone is capable of murder. Yet, it's not possible for an innocent person to place herself at the murder scene and finger an innocent man?

I said as much back in my first post here, two months ago.

Post 5710 of this thread (I'd post the direct link, but I can't yet.)

My own personal experience is part of the reason why I think Amanda is full of it.
 
Charlie Wilkes said:
She was quite sure she had it all figured out, but what evidence supported her conclusions? How did she extrapolate from Amanda's statement, or from any other information available to her, that Sollecito wanted a "swap"?

It was all malicious speculation, unsupported by a shred of evidence.

She wasn't certain at all. It wasn't a 'trial', it was simply a preliminary judgement intended solely to justify the arrest, continued detention of the suspects and to move the investigation forward. It was written in the full knowledge that as the investigation progressed elements of current evidence may later be found to be incorrect and discarded and that new evidence may emerge, either confirming or changing the preliminary findings. The Italian public understand this, it's how their system works.
 
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Why is it so difficult for some to believe that burglars can turn rapists?

just a quick google search and you find this for example:
"A burglar who twice raped a young woman and threatened to kill her after breaking into her home to fund a night of gambling has been jailed." http://menmedia.co.uk/rochdaleobserver/news/s/1234455_evil_rapist_jailed_for_eight_years

Nobody is arguing that it is unknown for burglars to rape and/or murder their victims. Your post is completely missing the actual point that was being made and that is: There is no difference between a burglar laying eyes on a victim and deciding to rape them, then there is in Massei's scenario of seeing Amanda and Raffaele getting it on, then seeing Meredith and deciding to attack her. The only real difference, is that Massei adds the extra sexual stimuli of Rudy seeing Amanda and Raffaele getting off with each other./

It should also be pointed out here, that in the cases of burglars who rape their victims there is nearly always a history in their records of sexual attacks and/or sexually deviant behaviour and/or violence. All of these factors are absent from Rudy's record. They also tend to be dominant and aggressive in nature. Rudy is not...he's submissive, a follower, a pleaser.
 
It should also be pointed out here, that in the cases of burglars who rape their victims there is nearly always a history in their records of sexual attacks and/or sexually deviant behaviour and/or violence. All of these factors are absent from Rudy's record. They also tend to be dominant and aggressive in nature. Rudy is not...he's submissive, a follower, a pleaser.

Do you have evidence for that claim about burglars who rape their victims? I ask because I came across an article in the Guardian the other day that seems to contradict it. It's about criminal profiling, the old style and the newer style which relies more on statistics than 'hunches'.

"84% of rapists have been convicted of a crime," Sutton says. "Any crime! Parking in a disabled bay. Or robbery. So don't go looking for your sex criminals. Look for your burglars."

"Isn't that a bad fact?" I say. "Surely it doesn't narrow down your suspect pool. How's that fact going to help?"

"It's a great fact!" Rainbow says. "It means we already have the rapist's name! He will have a criminal record."

Until now, Rainbow explains, the supposition propagated by people such as Britton was that rapists and sex murderers graduated from committing minor sexual offences. It sounded like a shrewd theory, one that gave psychological profilers reasons for existing. Indeed, it was one of the main reasons they first went after Colin Stagg. The problem is, Rainbow now says, they've taken the time to do the statistical research and it turns out not to be true.

"There's no data to back it up," he says. Whereas, he says, the 84% statistic is true. His point is that the 84% statistic is not the kind of intriguing deduction that would captivate an old-style profiler. It doesn't tell you much about the labyrinthine mind of the sex criminal. It's an ungainly, dull fact, but it is real. And that makes it lovely.
 
She wasn't certain at all. It wasn't a 'trial', it was simply a preliminary judgement intended solely to justify the arrest, continued detention of the suspects and to move the investigation forward.

Exactly. They had taken an action that they needed to justify, but they didn't have evidence, so they resorted to rank speculation. Then they needed to justify their speculation, which is how they came up with the knife, the bra fastener, the luminol footprints, and other junk forensics, augmented by police perjury and witnesses dragged from the gutter. It's a classic formula, by no means unique to this case.
 
katy_did said:
"84% of rapists have been convicted of a crime," Sutton says. "Any crime! Parking in a disabled bay. Or robbery. So don't go looking for your sex criminals. Look for your burglars."

"Isn't that a bad fact?" I say. "Surely it doesn't narrow down your suspect pool. How's that fact going to help?"

"It's a great fact!" Rainbow says. "It means we already have the rapist's name! He will have a criminal record."

In the UK (which is what Sutton and Rainbow are discussing), parking in a disabled bay without a blue badge will not get you a criminal record, it's not a recordable offence and thus a person's name won't appear on the PNC. If the disabled bay is on private land (eg a supermarket car park), the bay isn't enforceable anyway and you can safely ignore a 'fine'*. Annoying to those of us who do have blue badges and who need the disabled bays, but there you go.

I have no reason to disbelieve Sean Sutton's statistic of 84%, but question how he's obtaining that number if he's including non-recordable offences.

*UK only - An invoice from a private parking company is not a fine, it's an unenforceable invoice. PPCs have no power to fine you.

Sorry for the slight derail, but it does bear on the veracity of that 84% statistic.
 
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Do you have evidence for that claim about burglars who rape their victims? I ask because I came across an article in the Guardian the other day that seems to contradict it. It's about criminal profiling, the old style and the newer style which relies more on statistics than 'hunches'.

I don't think this is quite the silver bullet you were looking for.

And as for myself, I made no stand in favour of either statistics or hunches.
 
Exactly. They had taken an action that they needed to justify, but they didn't have evidence, so they resorted to rank speculation. Then they needed to justify their speculation, which is how they came up with the knife, the bra fastener, the luminol footprints, and other junk forensics, augmented by police perjury and witnesses dragged from the gutter. It's a classic formula, by no means unique to this case.

There was no 'speculation', it was based primarily on the signed testimony of Raffaele Sollecito and Amanda Knox. Neither was the clasp, footprints or knife speculation, it was forensic evidence. As the investigation progressed, more evidence against the pair was found. I fail to see why this is a problem. perhaps you can point it out?

Police perjury? Can you justify or evidence this accusation? In short Charlie, do you have anything with more substance then slogans to sling around?
 
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There was no 'speculation', it was based primarily on the signed testimony of Raffaele Sollecito and Amanda Knox. Neither was the clasp, footprints or knife speculation, it was forensic evidence. As the investigation progressed, more evidence against the pair was found. I fail to see why this is a problem. perhaps you can point it out?

Police perjury? Can you justify or evidence this accusation? In short Charlie, do you have anything with more substance then slogans to sling around?

I'd agree in principle that the use of the allegation "police perjury" in the argument is too strong and is currently unwarranted in that context. However...... you are arguing that if one has no evidence to corroborate a particular charge or opinion, then that charge/opinion by definition has no validity. So, you argue, in order to make an allegation of this sort, one has to show that it happened. Which all sounds perfectly reasonable on the face of it. But in an instance such as this (police perjury), we only have the word of the potential accused party (here, the police), set against the conflicting word of the potential accuser (here, presumably, AK on appeal, as well - in passing - as some posters on here), together with any supporting or contradictory circumstantial evidence. We have no direct evidence one way or the other, since the police apparently didn't make an audio or video recording of the interrogation

So, one should weigh up three things in assessing the validity of such an allegation: first, the credibility of both sides; second, the motivation and opportunity of both sides; and third, the way in which other known evidence tends to support or disprove the allegation of perjury.

I'd freely grant that most right-thinking people would instinctively accord the police very high levels of credibility - with a fair amount of justification. By and large, police have a deservedly good reputation for upholding the law with diligence and honesty. And I'd also freely contend that most people would regard AK as a less credible subject (although part of that belief might be based on a circular rationale that she is a lying murderer). I'd add that in this instance the Perugia police's credibility might be somewhat dented by the town drive-through episode, the way in which they arrested Lumumba (and possibly how they treated him in custody), and the way in which they leaked deeply incriminating information so freely (NOTE: yes, yes, I KNOW the Knox/Mellas camp also leaked information, and I'd argue that this damaged their credibility too - but it doesn't lessen any potential criticism of the police for doing the same).

Regarding motivation and opportunity, the situation gets a little murkier. AK clearly has strong motivation in accusing the police of misconduct (and therefore, by extension, of perjury). Her motivation is to remove any doubts over her own insistence of innocence, and to damage the police's reputation (which might help her in other areas of the evidence against her). However, the police clearly would also have a strong motivation and opportunity to deny any accusations of misconduct on the stand, if such misconduct did occur.

Furthermore, in the absence of any recorded evidence, those police that were in the interview room (were there not five or six at one point?) would be sure that only they, the interpreter, and AK could ever testify as to what actually went on. And after AK is discounted, then the police would only need to ensure that all the relevant officers were "onside" (potentially relatively easy, as shown by past historical examples), and that the interpreter would also not contradict their version of events (more difficult and therefore less likely, but the interpreter was retained and paid by the police for her services, and was a citizen of Perugia).

And on the "supporting evidence" front, I'd say that evidence in "favour" of AK would be the bizarre confession (which I've already argued in previous posts could conceivably be interpreted as the outcome of coercion and suggestion), and - to a smaller degree - the lack of any recording. Yes, yes, I know one can argue that a recording might not have been mandatory for "witness interviews, but I think AK could argue that she should have been under "suspect" status by the time she led up to her confession. Evidence "against" AK on this particular issue is actually nothing - since, intellectually, one has to discount the "evidence" of the police statements on the stand, and indeed the evidence of AK's eventual conviction, for reasons of circularity.

For those who would suggest that my argument in the paragraphs above is based on fantasy and pure conjecture (just because it COULD happen, doesn't mean it DID happen), I'd agree. But I'd equally point that it is intellectually invalid to argue that the police didn't/couldn't commit perjury JUST because a) they said they didn't commit perjury, and b) there's currently no smoking-gun evidence that they did so. I think the only way to analyse this properly is to adopt an approach similar to the one I've used above. This type of approach suggests that the whole misconduct issue might not be as cut-and-dried as it might at first appear. But of course it's perfectly feasible that one might employ this type of approach and conclude in favour of the police's version of events - and I have no problem with that if the conclusion has been arrived at properly.
 
There was no 'speculation', it was based primarily on the signed testimony of Raffaele Sollecito and Amanda Knox.

Again I quote Matteini:

"...in all probability Sollecito came in and the two started to try a swap, to which the girl refused.

She was then menaced with a knife, a knife which Sollecito usually had with him, and with which Meredith was struck in the throat."

You don't see that as speculation? What "signed testimony" supports that statement?
 
By-the-by, I see the usual shenanigans have been going on since I was last here......

Your point is a re-presentation of something that you and others have said before. You say that, in this case, that you can't conceive of a situation where an "innocent" AK would go from talking in a somewhat carefree and scattergun fashion (as you imply) about her alibi one moment, to breaking down and confessing the next moment.

This implies two things: firstly, that AK's change of story was more-or-less instantaneous; and secondly that it was entirely voluntary and of her own free will. I'd argue that neither of these things are correct.

You state that any rational (and innocent) person would have responded to the news that RS no longer supported her alibi with a simple cross-accusation of RS ("he's lying"). But I contend that the situation is infinitely more complicated than that. She had been confronted with an unexpected and emotionally devastating u-turn from someone whom she'd always assumed was unequivocally "on her side" (and I don't mean that in an "accomplice" way, merely in an emotional way). She was also most likely simultaneously informed that the police were certain she was lying about any meeting with Lumumba, and could well also have been informed that other evidence pointed firmly to her guilt.

In those circumstances, when you add in a dose of fear of being feeling increasingly in the police spotlight, even rational and innocent people CAN and DO react in unusual and often self-incriminating ways. And AK not only "makes up another elaborate scenario that has absolutely no resemblance to the original one". She in fact makes up (or confirms under suggestion...) another elaborate scenario which not only implicates her, but which implicates another person who had nothing to do with the crime.

My "library" of false confessions is currently closed for a re-indexing of all the titles. But I can tell you without fear of contradiction that I could find you all sorts of examples where people who were subsequently proven totally innocent went, during the course of a police interrogation, from denying involvement to a full or partial confession.

And I re-iterate, just for the avoidance of any doubt: I'm not asserting that AK's dramatic change of position during this interrogation was DEFINITELY down to coercion, and that it (and all insinuations arising from it) MUST therefore be completely disregarded. What I'm arguing is that many of the factors present in historical false confessions appear to be present in this particular situation. That - together with the indisputable fact that many parts of AK's "confession" are demonstrably false in themselves - leads me to believe that, on balance, there's a lot more to this "confession" that meets the eye. We shall see.

I would think that many of those factors are present in any interrogation where there are multiple witnesses/suspects. Even more so if said witnesses/suspects are guilty of the crime for which they are being interviewed/interrogated.
 
Again I quote Matteini:

"...in all probability Sollecito came in and the two started to try a swap, to which the girl refused.

She was then menaced with a knife, a knife which Sollecito usually had with him, and with which Meredith was struck in the throat."

You don't see that as speculation? What "signed testimony" supports that statement?

But the arrest wasn't confirmed on the basis of what Matteini speculated that the evidence suggested in regard to scenario, but rather the fact that the evidence suggested they were involved. After that, speculations on scenarios are superflous, merely the cherry that is required of judges to put on the cake. It's the cake that sealed their arrest and the continuing investigation against them, not the cherry. And that's you're problem in regard to the Massei Report also...you are focusing on the cherry rather then the cake. The cake is the substance and that is what convicted them.
 
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In the UK (which is what Sutton and Rainbow are discussing), parking in a disabled bay without a blue badge will not get you a criminal record, it's not a recordable offence and thus a person's name won't appear on the PNC. If the disabled bay is on private land (eg a supermarket car park), the bay isn't enforceable anyway and you can safely ignore a 'fine'*. Annoying to those of us who do have blue badges and who need the disabled bays, but there you go.

I have no reason to disbelieve Sean Sutton's statistic of 84%, but question how he's obtaining that number if he's including non-recordable offences.

*UK only - An invoice from a private parking company is not a fine, it's an unenforceable invoice. PPCs have no power to fine you.

Sorry for the slight derail, but it does bear on the veracity of that 84% statistic.

Yes I agree, and had the same problem as you with that part of what he said (since parking in a disabled bay wouldn't get you a criminal record anyway). It might be that he was exaggerating for effect (ANY criminal offence, even a parking ticket!), since he does go on to say that the advantage of the statistic is that the rapist might well already have a criminal record or at least be known to police, which wouldn't be the case for the minor (civil) offence he mentions. The main point he seems to be making is that a rapist will probably have a previous criminal history, just not necessarily for prior sexual offences. Agreed that the disabled parking bit confuses the issue, though.
 
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I don't think this is quite the silver bullet you were looking for.

And as for myself, I made no stand in favour of either statistics or hunches.
No 'silver bullet', Fulcanelli. Just pointing out that what you said about a rapist/burglar 'nearly always' having prior sexual offences doesn't seem to be accurate - unless you have some evidence to suggest otherwise, of course, in which case fair enough.
 
No 'silver bullet', Fulcanelli. Just pointing out that what you said about a rapist/burglar 'nearly always' having prior sexual offences doesn't seem to be accurate - unless you have some evidence to suggest otherwise, of course, in which case fair enough.

That's the thing with these studies, they're as common sand. You'll always find one to support your convenience. Statistics will prove anything you want if your criteria is lax...as is the case in your example.
 
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