In my case it is less than what I know, perhaps it would be better to state what I believe and what I don't believe.
I believe that the break-in was staged. I don't believe Rudy or anyone else entered by that window. I believe the rock was brought inside the flat and used to break the window after the room was trashed.
I believe you would have to live in a cartoon world to hold that belief. The outside shutters that cannot be latched will not offer sufficient resistance to deflect the rock if thrown from the inside. The rock would sail through the window and shutters and land outside with most of the glass.
The glass is scattered through the room in a pattern not inconsistent with a rock breaking the glass from the outside. There is no glass visible on top of the clothing and there is glass visible under the clothing. I saw this from the pictures that Charles produced even before Bruce joined in with the close ups.
Having dealt with several broken windows, I can tell you that more glass will fall out of the window after the initial breakage. Finding some glass on top of the computer and clothing under the broken window would not be surprising.
Can you identify what makes you believe that the break-in was staged?
I don't believe the various stories about the accidental water spill/busted pipe. Both Amanda and Raffaele put a lot of importance on the movement of the mop and the reasons for that movement.
There is a very good reason why both Amanda and Raffaele would be thinking or and writing about the movements of the mop. That is because the mop is something the cops were showing a great deal of interest in. Amanda probably made some mention of the mop in an early interview and that innocuous object would have shouted
CLEANUP to the cops ears. In every interview after that, the pair would have been grilled on exactly what was done with the mop looking for excruciating details.
I don't believe Raffaele would have any problem breaking into Meredith's room. I don't believe that Meredith normally locked her door when she was away or sleeping and I believe Raffaele's statement to a reporter prior to his arrest that she didn't normally lock her door was a truthful one. I believe he got this information from Amanda.
That particular lock type requires a key to lock it. If Amanda and Raffaele had locked the door, they would have the key to unlock it. As for whether the door was normally locked, how would you tell by looking if the door was locked or unlocked? Do you normally go around checking your roommates doors to see if they are locked when they are asleep or away?
Raffaele tried hard enough to open the door that he managed to split the wood. A cheap american door would have blown open by then. How did Raffaele know how to not quite use enough force to break through?
I too believe that if he had continued trying he would have been able to break it open. But this would be about the same time that Amanda is talking to her mom and getting advice to call the police. Raffaele calls his sister, calls 211 and they both go outside to wait for the police to arrive.
I believe both Amanda and Raffaele knew what they would find when the door was forced (with little trouble) open.
Do you believe this because Amanda and Raffaele were not with the rest of the group in front of the door? You have a tight group of people with multiple people talking at the same time in a language that Amanda was barely conversant in. She would have felt invisible and retreated to avoid being trampled by the mob. Raffaele would have followed her. This is a social situation that can be repeated and studied and I think you would find the same response most of the time.
