Project Astrometria:Global Cooling until 2100?

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And talking about the Little Ice Age:
What would happen if the sun fell to Maunder Minimum levels? has a description of the results from a just released paper On the Effect of a New Grand Minimum of Solar Activity on the Future Climate on Earth (Feulner & Rahmstorf 2010) (a PDF) that uses an actual climate model to do the predictions rather than whatever the Russians used.

Thanks again for 2 more links but the last one (bolded) needs "your log-in for any password-protected part of the AGU Web site." can anyone join?

I'm at work just now so I can't check it out properly or join, even if it's possible.

BTW I still need to finish those other links you suggested.

EDIT: I'm home now and I see the site wants you to pay to view the PDF, pity but I've found you can view a part of the paper here:

http://skepticalscience.com/What-would-happen-if-the-sun-fell-to-Maunder-Minimum-levels.html
 
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Some thing to think about the strong correlation between the Milankovitch_cycles WP and the Ice Ages. if there was a stronger influence from inner solar dynamics, I think it would overwhelm the Milankovitch cycles.

:)
 
Some thing to think about the strong correlation between the Milankovitch_cycles WP and the Ice Ages. if there was a stronger influence from inner solar dynamics, I think it would overwhelm the Milankovitch cycles.

:)

Thanks for the link and the interesting thought. My work load is heavy and I'll have to wait until I have time to think it over, as best a layman can, that is ;)
 
No, there are many excellent experts in the same field that disagree with him. He has many experts that support his views (a few in his field) and someone has to be first in a new discovery, right? I happen to think it might be his turn!

Here are the panel at WeatherAction’s international conference, Imperial College London Oct 28th 2009:

Hans Schreuder Analytic Chemist of ILMCD, Peter Gill - Physicist, Fellow of the Energy Institute and Member Inst of Physics, John Sanderson Physicist Pres Royal College Of Science Assoc, Piers Corbyn Astrophysicist founder WeatherAction, Prof Phillip Hutchinson Energy expert, Dr David Bellamy naturalist, Gabe Rychert Climate Realists.com. Joe D’Aleo of American Meteorological Soc & Dr Kirill Kuzanyan Solar Physicist (Moscow/Beijing) contributed by live Web-link

They all support him.

Science isn't a popularity contest (and if it was he'd lose).
 
Science isn't a popularity contest (and if it was he'd lose).

Yes, Science isn't a popularity contest. Care to give a rational argument against Piers Corbyn's science, rather than,as some do, an irrational attack on the man?

I'm not so sure your right about Piers not winning a popularity contest! If you add up the pros and con comments for these utube videos you'll see what I mean.

weatheraction 100 year Forecast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VakA4-qAuWE&feature=related

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action & Francis Wilson of Sky News
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl-1jEMlb4U&feature=player_embedded

Piers Corbyn interview on the BBC News Channel August 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C65hDa1qjnY

Piers Corbyn - ABC interview Weather Action June 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iPg5Z_hVlE
 
Yes, Science isn't a popularity contest. Care to give a rational argument against Piers Corbyn's science, rather than,as some do, an irrational attack on the man?

Post #81 (yours) links to a rational rebuttal to his "science".

As to where the ad homs come from: the science has so little grounding in reality that it's hard to criticize. Once we've pointed out that the effect he's guessing is large is not, in fact, large (which would be the end of the story for a real scientist), what else is there to say? Except to ask "hang on, why isn't this guy isn't taking these numbers seriously? Oh, because he's not a scientist".
 
Yes, Science isn't a popularity contest. Care to give a rational argument against Piers Corbyn's science, rather than,as some do, an irrational attack on the man?

I'm not so sure your right about Piers not winning a popularity contest! If you add up the pros and con comments for these utube videos you'll see what I mean.

weatheraction 100 year Forecast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VakA4-qAuWE&feature=related

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action & Francis Wilson of Sky News
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl-1jEMlb4U&feature=player_embedded

Piers Corbyn interview on the BBC News Channel August 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C65hDa1qjnY

Piers Corbyn - ABC interview Weather Action June 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iPg5Z_hVlE

I meant a popularity contest with credible climatologists. A popularity contest with nobodies is even less scientific (if that's even possible) than one with credible, relevant qualifications.
 
Post #81 (yours) links to a rational rebuttal to his "science". .

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=143
No, it doesn’t “it varies over a 11 year cycle” This is misleading, the total sunspot cycle is over 22 years. Also, they are only measuring total solar irradiance (TSI) (sunlight) not the other Sun outputs which he talks about! And this “To understand why solar influence is so small” just side steps it or misunderstands it. So this is not a rebuttal of PC’s work,

As to where the ad homs come from: the science has so little grounding in reality that it's hard to criticize. Once we've pointed out that the effect he's guessing is large is not, in fact, large (which would be the end of the story for a real scientist), what else is there to say? Except to ask "hang on, why isn't this guy isn't taking these numbers seriously? Oh, because he's not a scientist".

Hold on! If you really think Piers Corbyn is only “guessing” he must be the luckiest man alive. He consistently forecasts the weather correctly months in advance and the MET, here in the UK, keep getting it wrong when they try to make long term forecasts. The MET get approx 150m each year of tax payer’s money and PC get NO public money. He seems to know something they don’t. When you take into account he’s been getting it right for a decade and the MET getting it wrong for much longer than that, who’s the real scientist then?

I meant a popularity contest with credible climatologists. A popularity contest with nobodies is even less scientific (if that's even possible) than one with credible, relevant qualifications.

Who are the credible climatologists? Jones or Mann? Or maybe, Francis Wilson of Sky News? But he was made to look foolish in that interview, so who then?

Those “nobodies” are part of the tax paying public who seem to recognise, in growing numbers, that PC is a genuine scientist. Treat them with contempt at your peril.
 
They are right in that the ends of the ices ages were foillowed by increases in CO2 about 800-1000 years later.

And talking about the Little Ice Age:

#1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Causes_of_ice_ages
The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for both the large-scale ice age periods and the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age.

Solar variation refers here to changes in the amount of total solar radiation and its spectral distribution
Apart from solar brightness variations, more subtle solar magnetic activity influences on climate from cosmic rays or the Sun's ultraviolet radiation cannot be excluded although confirmation is not at hand since physical models for such effects are still too poorly developed.

In my view:

This doesn’t take into account solar wind and major magnetic effects eg:
The 93 million mile long magnetic ropes that link the Sun and Earth seem to be a major conduit for this energy. That together with the solar wind whizzing past the planet at a million miles an hour being affected by these ropes towards the magnetosphere. That's my understanding of a possible mechanism that could affect our climate.



#2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
See above (In my view)

#3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity
See above (In my view) and this from Christopher Monckton of Brenchley on the topic: “Even if temperature had risen above natural variability, the recent solar Grand Maximum may have been chiefly responsible. Even if the sun were not chiefly to blame for the past half-century’s warming, the IPCC has not demonstrated that, since CO2 occupies only one-ten-thousandth part more of the atmosphere that it did in 1750, it has contributed more than a small fraction of the warming. Even if carbon dioxide were chiefly responsible for the warming that ceased in 1998 and may not resume until 2015, the distinctive, projected fingerprint of anthropogenic “greenhouse-gas” warming is entirely absent from the observed record”

#4 http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
“When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit”. I think this may be only part of the answer See above (In my view)

From the first link on “Causes of Ice Ages” The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for both the large-scale ice age periods and the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age

#5 http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation.htm
“The UNEP and the IPCC like to speak about correlation between “global temperatures and CO2”, but they never speak about correlation between solar activity and global temperatures because, they say, the Sun's activity has a negligible influence on Earth's climate – as if the planet were receiving heat from other more important sources!”
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/correlaEng.html

#6 http://www.skepticalscience.com/Visual-depictions-of-CO2-levels-and-CO2-emissions.html

Excellent videos I enjoyed them. Not ignoring the physics of GHG regarding C02. but many are saying that it trails the warming, by some 800 years, not driving the warming.

#7 http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=143
“it varies over a 11 year cycle” This is misleading, the total sunspot cycle is over 22 years.
Also they are only measuring total solar irradiance (TSI) (sunlight) not the other Sun outputs! See above (In my view)

#8 http://www.agu.org/login/
Can’t read the full PDF without paying – pity.

So to sum up, the links you gave were very interesting but don’t move me from my view.


Some thing to think about the strong correlation between the Milankovitch_cycles WP and the Ice Ages. if there was a stronger influence from inner solar dynamics, I think it would overwhelm the Milankovitch cycles.

:)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Yes, I see your point and agree. I notice there are quite a few problems for the Milankovitch cycles theory eg: 100,000-year problem, 400,000-year problem, Stage 5 problem etc…..

Effect exceeds cause
The effects of these variations are primarily believed to be due to variations in the intensity of solar radiation upon various parts of the globe.

Yes, maybe if we take into account the inner solar dynamics of the solar winds and magnetic effects rather than just the solar radiation.

Thanks Reality Check and Dancing David for making me spend time looking at these links.

Sorry for such a long post and I’m about to make it even longer stating my “understanding” and a piece on magnetic ropes linking the Sun and Earth or as NASA calls them now Flux Transfer Event "I think there are two varieties of FTEs: active and passive."

The 93 million mile long magnetic ropes that link the Sun and Earth seem to be a major conduit for this energy. That together with the solar wind whizzing past the planet at a million miles an hour being affected by these ropes towards the magnetosphere. That's my understanding of a possible mechanism that could affect our climate.

Here's what NASA have found and say:

Magnetic Portals Connect Sun and Earth

Oct. 30, 2008: During the time it takes you to read this article, something will happen high overhead that until recently many scientists didn't believe in. A magnetic portal will open, linking Earth to the sun 93 million miles away. Tons of high-energy particles may flow through the opening before it closes again, around the time you reach the end of the page.

"It's called a flux transfer event or 'FTE,'" says space physicist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "Ten years ago I was pretty sure they didn't exist, but now the evidence is incontrovertible."

(snip)

Now that Cluster and THEMIS have directly sampled FTEs, theorists can use those measurements to simulate FTEs in their computers and predict how they might behave. Space physicist Jimmy Raeder of the University of New Hampshire presented one such simulation at the Workshop. He told his colleagues that the cylindrical portals tend to form above Earth's equator and then roll over Earth's winter pole. In December, FTEs roll over the north pole; in July they roll over the south pole.

Sibeck believes this is happening twice as often as previously thought. "I think there are two varieties of FTEs: active and passive." Active FTEs are magnetic cylinders that allow particles to flow through rather easily; they are important conduits of energy for Earth's magnetosphere. Passive FTEs are magnetic cylinders that offer more resistance; their internal structure does not admit such an easy flow of particles and fields. (For experts: Active FTEs form at equatorial latitudes when the IMF tips south; passive FTEs form at higher latitudes when the IMF tips north.) Sibeck has calculated the properties of passive FTEs and he is encouraging his colleagues to hunt for signs of them in data from THEMIS and Cluster.

"Passive FTEs may not be very important, but until we know more about them we can't be sure."

There are many unanswered questions: Why do the portals form every 8 minutes? How do magnetic fields inside the cylinder twist and coil?

"We're doing some heavy thinking about this at the Workshop," says Sibeck.
Meanwhile, high above your head, a new portal is opening, connecting your planet to the sun.


http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30oct_ftes.htm

Comments anyone?
 
Hold on! If you really think Piers Corbyn is only “guessing” he must be the luckiest man alive. He consistently forecasts the weather correctly months in advance and the MET, here in the UK, keep getting it wrong when they try to make long term forecasts. The MET get approx 150m each year of tax payer’s money and PC get NO public money. He seems to know something they don’t. When you take into account he’s been getting it right for a decade and the MET getting it wrong for much longer than that, who’s the real scientist then?
Really. The ever reliable source (ahem) that is wikipedia suggest almost the exact opposite.

Who are the credible climatologists? Jones or Mann? Or maybe, Francis Wilson of Sky News? But he was made to look foolish in that interview, so who then?
Who cares who they are? Science is not a popularity contest. The data is all that matters.

Those “nobodies” are part of the tax paying public who seem to recognise, in growing numbers, that PC is a genuine scientist. Treat them with contempt at your peril.
I'm not treating them with contempt, I'm treating your appeals to public opinion with contempt.
 
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=143
No, it doesn’t “it varies over a 11 year cycle” This is misleading, the total sunspot cycle is over 22 years.

The 22-year cycle is how long it takes the solar B field to get from large adn north-pointing, through zero, to large south-pointing, through zero, and back to north. Solar activity doesn't depend on the direction, only the magnitude, so over 22 years it goes large, small, large, small---that's an 11 year cycle.

Also, they are only measuring total solar irradiance (TSI) (sunlight) not the other Sun outputs which he talks about! And this “To understand why solar influence is so small” just side steps it or misunderstands it. So this is not a rebuttal of PC’s work,

I gave you the numbers on the other outputs already. They're tiny, tiny, tiny. If the solar cycle made them fluctuate by a factor of 100 (which it doesn't) they still wouldn't matter. And the data (in your link) immediately tell you they don't matter.

Please don't cite "other outputs" again until you can identify such an output that actually matters. Otherwise you might as well be citing astrological signs.
 
The 22-year cycle is how long it takes the solar B field to get from large adn north-pointing, through zero, to large south-pointing, through zero, and back to north. Solar activity doesn't depend on the direction, only the magnitude, so over 22 years it goes large, small, large, small---that's an 11 year cycle.
...

Correct.
 
Ummm, the big input here would be in umm microwave range? Or inductive heating? The magnetic waves make the earth's molecules get all excited and rub against each other, the friction makes heat. Right? Like in stoves with the slick glass cooktops?
 
Ummm, the big input here would be in umm microwave range? Or inductive heating? The magnetic waves make the earth's molecules get all excited and rub against each other, the friction makes heat. Right? Like in stoves with the slick glass cooktops?

picture.php


The peak is in the visible part of the spectrum; Once you get up to 1 mm (bottom of microwaves and WAY to the right of this chart) you are talking a small emission. This is why its fairly difficult to image the sun in radio frequencies.
 
Really. The ever reliable source (ahem) that is wikipedia suggest almost the exact opposite.
Yes really, Ah! Wiki, wonder what anonymous assassin wrote that piece on PC?

Who cares who they are? Science is not a popularity contest. The data is all that matters.
So those ones I mentioned aren’t credible in your eyes? Why is that? Yes data does matter, PC has a track record of correct predictions, second to none.

I'm not treating them with contempt, I'm treating your appeals to public opinion with contempt.
Your back peddling now. It was you that said PC couldn’t win a popularity contest. Science isn’t about popularity or consensus, if it was, the Sun would still revolve around the Earth. Someone has to think the unthinkable first. I happen to think PC is first in this new discovery and NASA’s magnetic rope evidence backs him up.

The 22-year cycle is how long it takes the solar B field to get from large adn north-pointing, through zero, to large south-pointing, through zero, and back to north. Solar activity doesn't depend on the direction, only the magnitude, so over 22 years it goes large, small, large, small---that's an 11 year cycle.
Wrong!

“The 11-year sunspot cycle is actually half of a longer, 22-year cycle of solar activity. Each time the sunspot count rises and falls, the magnetic field of the Sun associated with sunspots reverses polarity”
http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/activity/sunspot_cycle.html&edu=high
The point is, the reverse polarity of the solar sunspot cycle has a different effect on the Earth's climate as PC makes clear.

I gave you the numbers on the other outputs already. They're tiny, tiny, tiny. If the solar cycle made them fluctuate by a factor of 100 (which it doesn't) they still wouldn't matter. And the data (in your link) immediately tell you they don't matter.

Please don't cite "other outputs" again until you can identify such an output that actually matters. Otherwise you might as well be citing astrological signs.

NASA doesn’t agree with you:

“A magnetic portal will open, linking Earth to the sun 93 million miles away. Tons of high-energy particles may flow through the opening before it closes again, around the time you reach the end of the page.”

"We were wrong. The connections are not steady at all. They are often brief, bursty and very dynamic."

“Earth's magnetic field presses against the sun's magnetic field. Approximately every eight minutes, the two fields briefly merge or "reconnect," forming a portal through which particles can flow. The portal takes the form of a magnetic cylinder about as wide as Earth.”

“Sibeck believes this is happening twice as often as previously thought. "I think there are two varieties of FTEs: active and passive." Active FTEs are magnetic cylinders that allow particles to flow through rather easily; they are important conduits of energy for Earth's magnetosphere.”

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30oct_ftes.htm

Wrong, see my replies to Tubbythin and ben m

Ummm, the big input here would be in umm microwave range? Or inductive heating? The magnetic waves make the earth's molecules get all excited and rub against each other, the friction makes heat. Right? Like in stoves with the slick glass cooktops?

Yes, that's part of what PC is saying, as I understand it, all very dynamic.
 
“The 11-year sunspot cycle is actually half of a longer, 22-year cycle of solar activity. Each time the sunspot count rises and falls, the magnetic field of the Sun associated with sunspots reverses polarity”

Like I said. The Sun's activity (flare rate, sunspot count, etc.) depends on the half-cycle (11 year peak to peak). The sign of the field---measurable only with space probes and utterly irrelevant on the Earth---is on a 22-year cycle.

“A magnetic portal will open, linking Earth to the sun 93 million miles away. Tons of high-energy particles may flow through the opening before it closes again, around the time you reach the end of the page.”

"We were wrong. The connections are not steady at all. They are often brief, bursty and very dynamic."

You don't even know what those quotes are talking about, do you? They'd talking about the very exciting and dramatic 10^15 Joule events which represent huge variations in the solar wind energy but utterly negligible sub-part-per-billion variations of the Earth's energy. (And, moreover, whose activity waxes and wanes on the 11-year cycle, not the 22-year cycle.)
 
Sounds like a pretty stiff breeze to me. Would it have an effect like blowing the atmosphere a bit thinner on the side facing the sun? Like a tide? Less atmosphere to soak up energy = more hitting Earth's surface? Not a huge change, but could be more than the little bit soaked up by CO2 shown in the chart above?
 
...snip...
This doesn’t take into account solar wind and major magnetic effects eg:
The 93 million mile long magnetic ropes that link the Sun and Earth seem to be a major conduit for this energy. That together with the solar wind whizzing past the planet at a million miles an hour being affected by these ropes towards the magnetosphere. That's my understanding of a possible mechanism that could affect our climate.
I guess what impresses you is the 93 million mile long magnetic ropes bit not the actual amount of energy.
That's my understanding of a possible mechanism that could affect our climate not at all.
It is also easly shown to be true:
See ben m's post
Originally Posted by ben m
Solar irradiation (visible/IR/UV): 10^24 Joules per year.
The biggest solar flares/magnetic storms/etc ever to hit Earth: 10^15 Joules, total.
That is 0.0000001% for the most energetic events seen from the Sun. Flux transfer events are not as energetic but let us make the very bad assumption that every flux transfer event is. They happen every 8 minutes. That is 0.007% of the solar irradiation.


See above (with actual numbers).

#3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity
See above (In my view) and this from Christopher Monckton of Brenchley on the topic: “Even if temperature had risen above natural variability, the recent solar Grand Maximum may have been chiefly responsible. Even if the sun were not chiefly to blame for the past half-century’s warming, the IPCC has not demonstrated that, since CO2 occupies only one-ten-thousandth part more of the atmosphere that it did in 1750, it has contributed more than a small fraction of the warming. Even if carbon dioxide were chiefly responsible for the warming that ceased in 1998 and may not resume until 2015, the distinctive, projected fingerprint of anthropogenic “greenhouse-gas” warming is entirely absent from the observed record”
See above (with actual numbers).

And Christopher Monckton of Brenchley is wrong (or the quote outdated)
  • The Moderm Maximum ended in 2004. We are nnow in the Modern Minimum.
  • Climate scientists have shown that the climate sensitivity is enough for the observed increase in CO2 to cause the observed increase in temperature.
  • The warming did not end in 1998.
  • I have no idea what fingerprint is missing.
#4 http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
“When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit”. I think this may be only part of the answer See above (In my view)
See above (with actual numbers).
The blogger is wrong about ice ages and the Earth''s orbit and I may have given the same impression.
The causes of ice ages are not known but there are a number proposed.
There is strong evidence that the Milankovitch cycles affect the occurrence of glacial and interglacial periods within an ice age.

#5 http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation.htm
“The UNEP and the IPCC like to speak about correlation between “global temperatures and CO2”, but they never speak about correlation between solar activity and global temperatures because, they say, the Sun's activity has a negligible influence on Earth's climate – as if the planet were receiving heat from other more important sources!”
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/correlaEng.html
This ignores the fact that over the last 35 years the Sun's output has decreased slightly while temperature has increased:
Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?
and remember that the output of the Sun is 1,000,000,000 times that of its major variations (solar flares).

The web page itself is suspicious since it cites one graph in one paper published in 1995. The question you should be asking is - where are the dozens of more current papers on the same subject? Or for that matter why have the authors of that paper not backed the paper up with more research in the last 15 years?

#6 http://www.skepticalscience.com/Visual-depictions-of-CO2-levels-and-CO2-emissions.html

Excellent videos I enjoyed them. Not ignoring the physics of GHG regarding C02. but many are saying that it trails the warming, by some 800 years, not driving the warming.
Those many are correct - in the past warming has been followed by CO2 release from the warming oceans.
But (one more time) - that does not mean that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. The properties of CO2 mean that it is a greenhouse gas. If it increases then temperature increases. The only question is by how much.

So to sum up, the links you gave were very interesting but don’t move me from my view.
So to sum up, your view cannot be changed by pointing out the actual science and numbers?
 
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