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Project Astrometria:Global Cooling until 2100?

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Well, it sure has leveled off. Depending on who you listen to, the last few years are either "not significanty warmer" Or "not significantly cooler".

How about we form a concensus: NO trend for (pick one- 8,9, or 12) years?
 
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1. Lots of things visible & invisible happen on the sun - ejecting particles, radiation, changing magnetic fields etc.

Solar irradiation (visible/IR/UV): 10^24 Joules per year.
The biggest solar flares/magnetic storms/etc ever to hit Earth: 10^15 Joules, total.

"Known physics tells me that this oncoming train is going to hit me," you say, standing on the train tracks, "but isn't it possible that the train will be knocked over by a rogue swarm of mosquitos? If they sting the engineer they could have an amplified effect. As a skeptic I must weigh both possibilities fairly. I'll stand right here until the controversy is resolved."
 
Say, just how much does the sun vary in size? in percentage of area?

We do from studies of other cycles that it isn't the peak that caused climate change, it's how close together the peaks come. So, the astrometrics may not line up exactly with peak temps. But peak temps might folllow a tighter string of astrometric events?
 
Changes in solar radius;

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/214/4523/907

Photoelectric solar radius measurements since 1974 at Mount Wilson show no change in the solar radius, with a limit of abouit 0.1 arc second (1 standard deviation), over the interval. (1979) The limit is set by residual systematic effects.

http://www.csun.edu/sfo/sfosolar.html

(a 5 arc second change - about 400 km total radius change from max to min - miniscule; )

Solar astronomers are announcing today that they have detected a change in the solar radius over the last two solar cycles that appears to track sunspot cycle maxima and minima, becoming larger as solar activity increases.

So... The sun does not vary much in size. When it does it tracks well-known solar cycles. We already know the effect of solar cycles on climate...

CO2 change is of a magnitude to overpower any change in solar output due to the sunspot cycle.
 
OP has no "defence" because OP is incorrect.
At least Pielke Sr. had the grace for a mea culpe when in a fit of pique he claimed a similar bit of nonsense.

and as pointed out HADCrut has no coverage in the Arctic... a rather significant issue as the area is showing the greatest rate of change. :garfield:
 
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist says this "The attacks on what the Global Warmers deem as 'solar theory' are the product of disgraceful dishonesty which marks the integrity of the scientific establishment at its lowest level since the Papal Inquisition"

Now I'm not really one for character assassinations, but your characterization of Piers Corbyn is somewhat off the mark:

wiki said:
Piers Richard Corbyn (born Chippenham Wiltshire, 10 March 1947)[1] is, in the meteorological community, a maverick British weather forecaster[2] and consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and which he also bets on. He also was a left wing squatters rights[3] activist.

Personally, he claims (on his wiki discussion page) to have a "first class degree in Physics" and a masters in Astrophysics. No one, apparently, has been able to verify those in the face of his insistence. Given his background, even if it is true according to what he says, I'd still not give much credence to his statement.
 
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Personally, he claims (on his wiki discussion page) to have a "first class degree in Physics" and a masters in Astrophysics. No one, apparently, has been able to verify those in the face of his insistence. Given his background, even if it is true according to what he says, I'd still not give much credence to his statement.
According to this alumni newletter Piers Corbyn does have a MSc in Astrophysics (1981) from Queen Mary University of London.
The fact that the degree is in astrophysics rather than meteorology goes some way to explaining his obsession with explaining weather using astrophysics.
 
According to this alumni newletter Piers Corbyn does have a MSc in Astrophysics (1981) from Queen Mary University of London.
The fact that the degree is in astrophysics rather than meteorology goes some way to explaining his obsession with explaining weather using astrophysics.

When your only tool is a hammer, you look at all problems as nails.
 
Some contradictory studies:
Some contradictory studies:
1)“None of the natural processes can account for the overall warming trend in global surface temperatures ... solar forcing contributed negligible long-term warming”

They only measure solar irradiance (sunlight) not the Sun’s other outputs!

2)” Cyclical changes in the sun's energy output are not responsible for Earth's recent global warming”

Two decades ago, "it did a U-turn. If the sun had been warming the Earth, that should have come to an end, and we should have seen temperatures start to go the other way," See PC comments below.

3)” brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century”

They only measure solar irradiance (sunlight) not the Sun’s other outputs

4)” no indication of a systematic trend in the level of solar activity that can explain the most recent global warming”

“the solar cycle length analysis does not follow Earth's global mean surface temperature. A further comparison with the monthly sunspot number, cosmic galactic rays and 10.7 cm absolute radio flux since 1950 gives no indication of a systematic trend in the level of solar activity that can explain the most recent global warming.”
See PC comments below.

5)” Solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades”

See PC comments below.

Thanks again varwoche for these links “Some contradictory studies:” I enjoyed reading them. I won’t pretend I understood all of it but you wouldn’t expect that of a layperson, would you?.

From what I do understand, Piers Corbyn would give the same answer to your “contradictory studies” he gave to this question:



Hi Piers
Ive been convinced by your ideas but have trouble explaining the following from sourcewatch

"Usokin, Schussler, Solanki and Mursula -- also found that the correlation between solar activity and temperature ended around 1975. At that point, temperatures rose while solar activity stayed level. This led them to conclude that, during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend,


pierscorbyn (1 month ago)
Reply

1. They mix up Electromagnetic radiation with particles. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY (= particles reaching earth) is what is needed. One must also wonder about temps given Climategate
2. The link is MAGNETIC not the 11 yr cycle but 22yr so half the time the 11 yr solar activity cycle and world temps which follow the MAGNETIC cycle will be out of phase
3. Their findings are based on confusion.
4. Have a look at presentations on our website - eg as in WAnewsNos 47 and 80

Thanks Piers Corbyn

I can hear you saying “What! He is right and everyone else is wrong?”

Well, It seems to me he may be the first to be on the right track.

He has a proven track record of correct extreme weather predictions, months in advance. He doesn’t claim infallibility but he has been correct with 85% success rate for the world and over 90% for USA on land.

This has been confirmed in Independent assessments by the University of Sunderland agreeing his long range forecasts of storms and cold spells are statistically significant with the chance of them being down to luck being only one in a thousand.

So how else is the Sun to interact with the Earth if not through... sunlight?

Are you suggesting some kind of effect from the solar wind, magnetic fields, coronal mass ejections, what?
See my reply to varwoche
Started cooling by increasing the rate of warming? Is that like braking by pressing the accelerator?

And what the hell does "started cooling" mean anyway? When did it "start cooling" here?

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28149d1e907d3f18.jpg[/qimg]
I can only say again - see my post #20 for links “Piers Corbyn explains:-“ he makes it very clear

Reality Check
Sunspots affecct TSI - that is why the chart is there.
The paper is all about TSI - no mention of the solar wind, falres or CME.

On your point regarding Phil Jones and the cooling since 2002. I mention his comments as my response to macdoc - "Still waiting for your defence of your statement"

So, the Earth has "started" cooling, as they predict. as we enter solar cycle 24 and it's expected to deepen in solar cycle 25, they say.
[/quotre]
So the Earth has not "started" cooling. The trend is statistically insignificant.


Scientists publish papers. The Project Astrometria are scientists. Piers Corbyn is a weatherman.


Someone is lying to you. HADCRUT3's data is not under suspicion of being manipulated to show a warming trend.

Other datasets show that the statistically insignificant cooling is much less in the last 8 years (2002 - 2010) as I stated before:
Did Phil Jones really say global warming ended in 1995?

If you plot the NASA GISS data from 2002 to 2010 then there is an even less statistically significant cooling trend (~0.3 C per decade).

All datasets show that there is statistically insignificant warming in the last decade (2000 - 2010).

See my post #20 for links “Piers Corbyn explains:-“ he makes it very clear.

The main goal of the project:

"The study of global processes occurring deeply inside the Sun and of consequent variations of physical processes in the system Sun-Earth as well as the study of fine structure and dynamics of active and quiet regions of the photosphere and of their cyclic variations."

I see the bolded sentence above, as meaning what you say is not there, solar wind, flares and CME. The Russian – English translation is good but it not perfect and we face a little bit of the language barrier, I feel. Regardless, this project is clearly, IMHO, not just about TSI (total solar irradiance – sunlight)


Also, see my reply to varwoche

“Piers Corbyn is a weatherman” that’s not fair, he is more than that. An Astrophysicist and Climatologist and he has tried to publish, but been blocked. In my view he doing well with his evidence based science.

You may be right, there is a lot of disinformation around regarding data.



Solar irradiation (visible/IR/UV): 10^24 Joules per year.
The biggest solar flares/magnetic storms/etc ever to hit Earth: 10^15 Joules, total.

"Known physics tells me that this oncoming train is going to hit me," you say, standing on the train tracks, "but isn't it possible that the train will be knocked over by a rogue swarm of mosquitos? If they sting the engineer they could have an amplified effect. As a skeptic I must weigh both possibilities fairly. I'll stand right here until the controversy is resolved."
see my reply to varwoche
Why? Do you understand the meaning of statistically insignificant, yes or no?


Really? More so than all the solar and climate scientists that disagree with him?
see my reply to varwoche
Now I'm not really one for character assassinations, but your characterization of Piers Corbyn is somewhat off the mark:



Personally, he claims (on his wiki discussion page) to have a "first class degree in Physics" and a masters in Astrophysics. No one, apparently, has been able to verify those in the face of his insistence. Given his background, even if it is true according to what he says, I'd still not give much credence to his statement.

your entitled to your view of PC


Project Astrometria and Piers Corbyn seem to me to be on the right track to understanding what drives climate change. They could have the answer to why the warming of the MWP changed to the cooling of the LIA.

These discoveries by NASA are also in their favour, it seems to me:

Colliding Auroras Produce Explosions of Light

December 17, 2009: A network of cameras deployed around the Arctic in support of NASA's THEMIS mission has made a startling discovery about the Northern Lights. Sometimes, vast curtains of aurora borealis collide, producing spectacular outbursts of light. Movies of the phenomenon were unveiled at the Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union today in San Francisco.

"Our jaws dropped when we saw the movies for the first time," says space scientist Larry Lyons of UCLA, a leading member of the team that made the discovery. "These outbursts are telling us something very fundamental about the nature of auroras."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17dec_whenaurorascollide.htm


Magnetic Portals Connect Sun and Earth

Oct. 30, 2008: During the time it takes you to read this article, something will happen high overhead that until recently many scientists didn't believe in. A magnetic portal will open, linking Earth to the sun 93 million miles away. Tons of high-energy particles may flow through the opening before it closes again, around the time you reach the end of the page.

"It's called a flux transfer event or 'FTE,'" says space physicist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "Ten years ago I was pretty sure they didn't exist, but now the evidence is incontrovertible."

Indeed, today Sibeck is telling an international assembly of space physicists at the 2008 Plasma Workshop in Huntsville, Alabama, that FTEs are not just common, but possibly twice as common as anyone had ever imagined.
Right: An artist's concept of Earth's magnetic field connecting to the sun's--a.k.a. a "flux transfer event"--with a spacecraft on hand to measure particles and fields. [Larger image]

Researchers have long known that the Earth and sun must be connected. Earth's magnetosphere (the magnetic bubble that surrounds our planet) is filled with particles from the sun that arrive via the solar wind and penetrate the planet's magnetic defenses. They enter by following magnetic field lines that can be traced from terra firma all the way back to the sun's atmosphere.

"We used to think the connection was permanent and that solar wind could trickle into the near-Earth environment anytime the wind was active," says Sibeck. "We were wrong. The connections are not steady at all. They are often brief, bursty and very dynamic."

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30oct_ftes.htm
 
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See my reply to varwoche

Your reply to Varwoche doesn't address my point. I don't need to wait around to see if someone else can add up a bunch of non-light components of the solar power output; I just added them up for you. They're all measured already, and the actual power output is utterly insignificant. Look at the numbers.

The one thing where there's a vague possibility of an amplification---whether cosmic rays seed clouds---has been extensively studied (http://www.realclimate.org/, http://www.sciencedaily.com/, etc.) and there's no evidence of any actual effect.
 
He has a proven track record of correct extreme weather predictions, months in advance. He doesn’t claim infallibility but he has been correct with 85% success rate for the world and over 90% for USA on land.
He has no proven track record until you provided the proof.
So far you have proved that he has an advertised track record that he uses to sell his services.

This has been confirmed in Independent assessments by the University of Sunderland agreeing his long range forecasts of storms and cold spells are statistically significant with the chance of them being down to luck being only one in a thousand.
Where were these assessments (plural) published?

There is A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997. Google Scholar gives only 4 citations for the paper which was published in 2000.
This has been discussed elsewhere:
I do have access to this paper at work. I think that my intuition that the author didn't normalize the statistics for climatology was basically correct. The skill scores were vastly inflated by the fact that forecasting non-occurrences of a "rare" event yields a high success rate. In this case, gales are rare in England in the summer so Summertime forecasts of no gales occurring are almost guaranteed to be correct.

Corbyn issues forecasts of events happening in intervals which are between 3 and 6 days long. Even given this amount of leeway, only 23 of the 41 gales during the study period occurred in an interval that Corbyn had forecast a gale for, and there were 21 intervals for which Corbyn forecast a gale but none occurred.
So the paper has flaws and makes it clear that Piers Corbyn is basically saying bad weather will happen in winter and not in summer. Big surprise!

Reality Check
The paper is all about TSI - no mention of the solar wind, falres or CME.
See my post #20 for links “Piers Corbyn explains:-“ he makes it very clear.
Exactly where does he mention this specifc paper (Astrometria)?

"The study of global processes occurring deeply inside the Sun and of consequent variations of physical processes in the system Sun-Earth as well as the study of fine structure and dynamics of active and quiet regions of the photosphere and of their cyclic variations."
I see the bolded sentence above, as meaning what you say is not there, solar wind, flares and CME. The Russian – English translation is good but it not perfect and we face a little bit of the language barrier, I feel. Regardless, this project is clearly, IMHO, not just about TSI (total solar irradiance – sunlight)
There is no bolded sentence above in what you quote.
Regardless the paper is clear - it is only about the TSI

The instrument that they are using can only detect the TSI. They are not detecting
  • The solar wind,
  • CME,
  • flares or
  • unicorns :D.
“Piers Corbyn is a weatherman” that’s not fair, he is more than that. An Astrophysicist and Climatologist and he has tried to publish, but been blocked. In my view he doing well with his evidence based science.

He is a weatherman with the wrong credentials. He has a qualification as an astrophysist. He is not a climatologist:
  • There is no evidence that he has studied the subject.
  • He has never published a paper on the subject. For that matter he does not seem to every published anything about astrophysics either.
  • The forecasts that you have presented have been weather forecasts - local and short term. Climate science is global and long term (decades).
  • If he states that he tried to publish and was blocked for a political reason/conspiracy/dislike then he is a liar.
How about you give us a list of the papers that he has tried to publish, the journals that he submitted them to and the reasons why they were not published?

For that matter there is a little thing called the internet - he is free to put his papers on it. He is also free to put preprints on the ArXiv server.

In my view you have taken in by a guy with a good advertising campaign. In which case there is a certain bridge in New York that you may be interested in :rolleyes:!
 
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Your reply to Varwoche doesn't address my point. I don't need to wait around to see if someone else can add up a bunch of non-light components of the solar power output; I just added them up for you. They're all measured already, and the actual power output is utterly insignificant. Look at the numbers.

The one thing where there's a vague possibility of an amplification---whether cosmic rays seed clouds---has been extensively studied (http://www.realclimate.org/, http://www.sciencedaily.com/, etc.) and there's no evidence of any actual effect.

Sorry, I couldn't give you an answer you liked.

You could try asking Piers Corbyn on his site, i would be interested to hear his reply. You could do it here:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact11&fsize=0
 
He has no proven track record until you provided the proof.
So far you have proved that he has an advertised track record that he uses to sell his services.

Thursday 18 Feb 2010 Forecasts with proven skill
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. Weather Action has audited accuracy, for example, the WeatherAction advance forecast of May 5 2009 predicted “Bay of Bengal land hit on May 24-26 2009” the event was verified by Cyclone Alia in the Bay of Bengal May 25 2009. Please see the Short List table below for more details of successful predictions and notable major extreme events. Download Excel table report See below for full independently Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts March to Sept 2008 showing a success rate of 85% in forecasting of generally relatively unusual extreme events in narrow time windows. Download pdf format report See below the Audited Assessment report of WeatherAction world extreme events forecasts for the period October 2008 to April 2009 and a cover letter from the Auditors re USA & Canada eventsDownload pdf format formal audit report Download pdf format report

http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0

There is no bolded sentence above in what you quote.
Regardless the paper is clear - it is only about the TSI

I've corrected that error and bolded the sentence, sorry.

[*]There is no evidence that he has studied the subject.
[*]He has never published a paper on the subject. For that matter he does not seem to every published anything about astrophysics either.
[*]The forecasts that you have presented have been weather forecasts - local and short term. Climate science is global and long term (decades).
[*]If he states that he tried to publish and was blocked for a political reason/conspiracy/dislike then he is a liar.
[/LIST]How about you give us a list of the papers that he has tried to publish, the journals that he submitted them to and the reasons why they were not published?

For that matter there is a little thing called the internet - he is free to put his papers on it. He is also free to put preprints on the ArXiv server.

In my view you have taken in by a guy with a good advertising campaign. In which case there is a certain bridge in New York that you may be interested in :rolleyes:!

Your entitled to your view of PC but it seems to me your indulging in character assassination here.

You could put your questions to PC directly, on his site, weatheraction.com

I’m sure he would respond politely.

BTW what's your view of the NASA links I posted and my point?
 
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Getting back “on topic”

Project Astrometria: Global Cooling until 2100?

Read the article here: http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html


The American Geophysical Union's journal Eos attracted a lot of attention, as it suggested that the levels of magnetic activity associated with recent sunspots indicated that the sun might be returning to a state of low activity, similar to that of the Maunder Minimum, which occurred in the late 17th century. That change in solar activity was notable for setting off what's called the Little Ice Age, which plunged Europe into a deep chill.

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf







How to adapt to another LIA?
 
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Thursday 18 Feb 2010 Forecasts with proven skill
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific literature. Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
That is the paper you mentioned before and as I replied:
A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’: October 1995–September 1997. Google Scholar gives only 4 citations for the paper which was published in 2000.
This has been discussed elsewhere:
Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss
I do have access to this paper at work. I think that my intuition that the author didn't normalize the statistics for climatology was basically correct. The skill scores were vastly inflated by the fact that forecasting non-occurrences of a "rare" event yields a high success rate. In this case, gales are rare in England in the summer so Summertime forecasts of no gales occurring are almost guaranteed to be correct.

Corbyn issues forecasts of events happening in intervals which are between 3 and 6 days long. Even given this amount of leeway, only 23 of the 41 gales during the study period occurred in an interval that Corbyn had forecast a gale for, and there were 21 intervals for which Corbyn forecast a gale but none occurred.

So the paper has flaws and makes it clear that Piers Corbyn is basically saying bad weather will happen in winter and not in summer. Big surprise!

Thursday
Weather Action has audited accuracy,...
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0
Weather Action wrote a report and then got it independently audited by WeatherNet. That has the same problem as the paper. It is a list of predictions and their outcomes - not an analysis of whether the predictions are any better than "there will be bad weather here in this week in winter".

I've corrected that error and bolded the sentence, sorry.
"The study of global processes occurring deeply inside the Sun and of consequent variations of physical processes in the system Sun-Earth as well as the study of fine structure and dynamics of active and quiet regions of the photosphere and of their cyclic variations."
And the bolding does not change the fact that the paper is about the TSI. They are especially interested in its origins and so studying the fine structure and dynamics of active and quiet regions of the photosphere and of their cyclic variations via:
The main tasks of the project
  • Coordinate and photometric monitoring of the solar disk diameter and the shape of the solar limb with the error of 0.005 arc seconds and of its oblateness with the error of around 10-6R☉ (by the median of 100 observations) with a frequency of 5 Hz;
  • Coordinate and photometric monitoring of two central and sixteen limb sections of the disk with spatial resolution around 0.7 arc second with a frequency of 0.05 Hz;
  • Coordinate and photometric measurements of angular distances between reference stars +2.5 ≤ mb < +6.5 with the error of 0.004 arc seconds (by the median of 100 measurements) for image scale calibration and to control the stability of functional parameters of the limbograph as a whole (six times a month);
  • Creation of the unique database containing fundamental high-precision series of the above measurements over the period of at lest a half of an 11-year cycle;
  • In-flight fine-tuning of the unique scientific instruments providing the above measurements for the further long-term observations of the Sun with the use of unmanned space vehicles.


They are not studying
  • The solar wind,
  • CME,
  • flares or
  • unicorns :biggrin:.
The authors are also incorrect about the link of TSI to climate:
Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate (PDF) published in Nature in 2006.
Variations in the Sun's total energy output (luminosity) are caused by changing dark (sunspot) and bright structures on the solar disk during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The variations measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years. In this Review, we show that detailed analysis of these small output variations has greatly advanced our understanding of solar luminosity change, and this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century. Additional climate forcing by changes in the Sun's output of ultraviolet light, and of magnetized plasmas, cannot be ruled out. The suggested mechanisms are, however, too complex to evaluate meaningfully at present.

Your entitled to your view of PC but it seems to me your indulging in character assassination here.


I have no idea about PC's character. He could be a saint. The facts are that he is a weatherman with the wrong credentials. He has a qualification as an astrophysicist. He is not a climatologist since
  • There is no evidence that he has studied the subject.
  • He has never published a paper on the subject. For that matter he does not seem to every published anything about astrophysics either.
  • The forecasts that you have presented have been weather forecasts - local and short term. Climate science is global and long term (decades).
You could put your questions to PC directly, on his site, weatheraction.com
I have no questions for PC. You are the one asserting
Originally Posted by Haig
“Piers Corbyn is a weatherman” that’s not fair, he is more than that. An Astrophysicist and Climatologist and he has tried to publish, but been blocked.
I am asking you what is your evidence that he has tried to publish, but been blocked?

BTW what's your view of the NASA links I posted and my point?


You did not really make a point because the papers are not about climate. They are about
Flux transfer events deliver negligible energy to the Earth. They have no effect on the climate and maybe a tiny effect on weather (but then PC is not a weatherman so we can ignore that :rolleyes:!).

See ben m's post
Solar irradiation (visible/IR/UV): 10^24 Joules per year.
The biggest solar flares/magnetic storms/etc ever to hit Earth: 10^15 Joules, total.
That is 0.0000001% for the most energetic events seen from the Sun. Flux transfer events are not as energetic but let us make the very bad assumption that every flux transfer event is. They happen every 8 minutes. That is 0.007% of the solar irradiation.
 
Getting back “on topic”

Project Astrometria: Global Cooling until 2100?

Read the article here: http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
As has already stated this paper is flawed as far as trying to correlate climate with variations in solar irradiation.

ETA
Reading through the paper suggest that their errors are because they are astrophysicists trying to do climate science and citing other astrophysicists trying to do climate science. A couple of points
  • There is no sign that they have an actual climate model (but the cited papers are in Russan so this is uncertain). It looks like they assume that all climate variation is caused by the TSI and ignore all other effects such as greenhouse gases.
  • They make a common mistake of noting that the the end of ice ages is followed about 1000 years later by increases in CO2 (from the warming of oceans). They then assume that the current warming is not caused by increases in CO2.
    But:
    • It is possible to calculate the effect of increasing CO2 has on global temperature - this is the climate sensitivity to doubling or halving of CO2 and is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C.
    • We have measured the amount of CO2 emiisions from industrial activities. This has increased about 35% since the start of industralization. This is confirmed by the Keeling curve where the ratio between istopes of carbon tell us how much of the CO2 is from the burning of fossil fuels.
    • Thus the current warming is driven by CO2.
The American Geophysical Union's journal Eos attracted a lot of attention, as it suggested that the levels of magnetic activity associated with recent sunspots indicated that the sun might be returning to a state of low activity, similar to that of the Maunder Minimum, which occurred in the late 17th century. That change in solar activity was notable for setting off what's called the Little Ice Age, which plunged Europe into a deep chill.

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf
How to adapt to another LIA?
Wear fur :).

The Eos paper is already out of date - sunspots are back and with a vengence (now), initally returned in December 2009.
 
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