The warmers are becoming skeptics

Status
Not open for further replies.
As it happens, they are produced by potholer54 (a youtube alias). He is a retired Australian science journalist; some of his background is explained in the first video of the series these are a part of. He can be reached through youtube messaging on his channel (I've exchanged emails with him on a different matter).

Thanks Shadron.
I have no idea why others could not have explained this in a simple way.

So he is independent. Great, that is something at least.
And his opinion is valid - but others have different ones and can pull it apart from another angle.
My point here remains that the video is not the final word, which some would have us believe. If it were, investigations into Climategate would not be continuing/getting underway.

Back to the OP.

Why are people turning away?
Will the decline in support continue?
Will it bounce back.

These are the things I wanted to explore here, although I am flattered by the attention that others like to give to me and my opinions. :)
 
Last edited:
First, please show me where these have been debunked by independant parties. That includes police, parliaments et al.
What do police and parliaments have to do with anything? That's like calling a fireman to decide the outcome of a football game. It's an inappropriate authority.

Tell you what, give me two or three of what you think are the strongest accusations about the emails, and I'll find you the actual context.

Second, hackers or theives (or a whistleblower) matters how exactly if, they are ultimately shown to have done the wrong thing?
You didn't make that "if" big enough. The stuff people love to point at in those emails fall into one of two categories: (1) jargon that sounds bad unless you understand what they are talking about and (2) individual scientists (you know, people) blowing off steam.
 
Nahh.
It wasn't my question to start with and at any rate AGW wasn't specified. The goalposts were not set, nor moved by me.
Aar, I have accepted the reply given in terms of the literal (or not) reading of the original post.

So where is the IPCC and the false data, evidence?

ETA: I did not characterize it well in this post:

You stated:
Have the IPCC not (basically) admitted they lied for politicaly prudent reasons in recent times.
So admission to lie, evidence of politics?

Evidence?
 
Last edited:
The goalposts were not set, nor moved by me.
Aar, I have accepted the reply given in terms of the literal (or not) reading of the original post.
Endless weaseling. Thread after thread, writing off a body of science with the wave of an arm, defaming the entire field as if it's a Kevin Bacon board game, blindly echoing conspiratorial nuts like Watts and Monckton, evidence be damned because the burden has been shifted entirely.

It's the fact-free zone known as A.A.Alfie.
 
Endless weaseling. Thread after thread, writing off a body of science with the wave of an arm, defaming the entire field as if it's a Kevin Bacon board game, blindly echoing conspiratorial nuts like Watts and Monckton, evidence be damned because the burden has been shifted entirely.

It's the fact-free zone known as A.A.Alfie.

Weasling?
A question was asked (bu someone else btw), I questioned an element oif it, It was answered and I accepted it.
What more do you want?

Back to the OP though - as much as I enjoy the personal attention I am receiving -

WHY IS PUBLIC OPINION MIGRATING?
 
Hmm, let's see... public opinion (or ideological trolling) has yet to:
  1. Somehow materialize WMDs in Iraq
  2. Provide any evidence of any divine being
  3. Provide any evidence of anything paranormal
  4. Prove that the US government had any involvement in 9/11 or JFK's assassination
  5. Give any reason to believe extra-terrestrials have visited the planet
  6. Show that politicians are reliable or even competent at anything besides politics

Among other things. But, yeah, go ahead and argue ad populum as a defense for denial. Continue to show just how flimsy your arguments really are.
 
Last edited:
I didn't realise that is what I was doing. I am asking why do you think this is occuring.

You have a broad range of interests there btw, must keep you busy.:)
 
Among other things. But, yeah, go ahead and argue ad populum as a defense for denial.

Sorry, who elects governments?

Public opinion has turned in Australia to the extent that the government's carbon pollution reduction scheme does not have a hope in hell of passing. The IPCC is losing the PR war in a big way, and this is what this particular thread is about, ad homs and strawmen notwithstanding.
 
Sorry, who elects governments?

Public opinion has turned in Australia to the extent that the government's carbon pollution reduction scheme does not have a hope in hell of passing. The IPCC is losing the PR war in a big way, and this is what this particular thread is about, ad homs and strawmen notwithstanding.

That's a far better response than Alfie's evasions and dancing around actually saying anything. And it's worth considering.

However, while people do indeed elect governments, governments are nothing if not distinctly self-preservationist by nature. This happens to be why even the parties who make it into office that one would intuitively assume have anti-science predilections still manage to put as much money as their predecessors into science funding. The reason for this is that it's in a nation's best interest to continue scientific research and funding is that such things are at the core of industrial innovation, and without such things a nation cannot achieve or maintain economic and cultural dominance without it. As much as the anti-intellectual populists may love to think otherwise, their government representatives aren't going to abandon the very things that allow the government to thrive.

And therein lies the lack of foresight and complete naivete of the anti-intellectual populists. Their governments aren't going to abandon the very scientists that their screeds are crying out against. Neither, in fact, are the companies out there whose interests lie in maintaining or keeping a market advantage. If one government isn't going to help them achieve that advantage, they'll find one who does. It's inevitable. I don't have any concern for the science when people bring these inane populist appeals forward, because all the populist arguments do is show just how lacking in any understanding of the economics of science such populists really are.
 
Wow.
What a lot of big words.

Now. back to reality.

The science gets on the nose.
The politicians have electorates.
The electorates don't like the IPCC and the stench that is the politics around AGW (the point of the thread, for those intelligentsia with comprehension difficulties).
So, the politician either has to move away from the scandal or commit political suicide.

I wonder what will happen?

So, he either backs away or he is replaced by another, who this time does not support squillions of dollars going to the IPCC, greean taxes, carbon reductions strategies that do nothing, 'smelly' science etc etc.

And you think funding will continue unabated.

Now who's in denial?
 
Last edited:
There is a HUGE difference between being skeptical of proposed solutions or action plans to address AGW, and being skeptical of AGW.

Oh, nice false dichotomy by the way, that 'move away or commit political suicide'. 'Green' solutions and technologies are still tremendously popular and alternate energy research doesn't stand on AGW alone. I think you're over estimating this (or these) 'scandals' hold on the public opinions of AGW, as you are focusing on specific strategies which have never had the same level of acceptance as AGW theory overall.

It's the same type of weasel wording used in polls with pre-determined goals.
 
Oh, there may be some token drop of funding, but all you're doing is again showing your ignorance. There's a lot more to the funding on global warming than playing the stupid politics game, and there are very real purposes for the research taking place on the subject. Some of the research is being used-- even while the global warming issue is sourcing this data-- in assisting geological predictions for the purpose of land and mineral rights right now. For all the bluster about how the scientists obviously have some ulterior motive, the government and private companies seem perfectly pleased to utilize their data for the purpose of claiming rights to natural resources, particularly in the Arctic. Further, oil is somewhere around four times as expensive to extract as it was 30 years ago, and anyone thinking that this isn't precisely the reason companies like Exxon and individuals like T. Boone Pickens have already been spending gobs of money on research for alternatives then you're stupid or naive. Back to the geological part, though, there is a demonstrably heavy agricultural influence in US politics (and in other nations), and regardless of what someone wants to conclude politically crop returns and soil erosion are big enough deals to necessitate further scientific study by these organizations-- trying to fold them and re-create some new ones would be ridiculously wasteful (and hypocritical of the populist ideologues). What's so stupid about the anti-intellectual populism is that it asserts that such changes wouldn't affect everyone clearly, and it would every time you visit the gas station or the grocery, and no politician is going to risk that no matter how stupid they are about the science. Like him or hate him, Obama was correct in that there are other nations surpassing the US in alternative energy research, and just because some other administration might phrase it differently for political purposes it doesn't change the fact that money will be spent on figuring out how to mitigate any gaps that appear and retain intellectual dominance of the nation. One of the most important aspects of immigration (a separate debate) in this country happens to be the huge amount of brain trust that the US absorbs from all over the world, and this applies to climate science along with others. It's antithetical to national interests to cut science funding-- which is beginning to become evidenced by Bush's hamstringing of stem cell research as an example-- and far more often than not a politician's political ideologies are going to clash with national interests if they think cutting funding is going to be worthwhile.

So, you want to know what's going to happen to the IPCC? Very little, if anything. Want to know what will happen to funding? At best, a political term or so of lowered funding (but not much lower). And in the meantime, if any funding gets cut too far you'll see scientists applying for work visas to continue their study elsewhere, which will cause some concern among public and private interests in keeping reasonably-paid scientists close, and there won't be any silly televised debates about whether to increase funding to bring researchers back. And all the while, the ignorant anti-intellectual populists will consider themselves winners while the world continues to research and study, shaking their heads at the stupidity of a few political groups who equate populist victories with political or scientific ones.

Like I said, it's inevitable. All the populist anger in the world isn't going to change what's actually happening in the climate, and the wheels of business, commerce, and eventually politics are going to be driven by what actually is and not what a bunch of anti-intellectuals want. But go ahead and feel free to respond with more incredulity instead of actually refuting anything with substance.
 
'Green' solutions and technologies are still tremendously popular and alternate energy research doesn't stand on AGW alone.

Precisely. And furthermore, even taking out the whole GW argument completely, there are still huge segments of real and present economic forces (like agriculture) that make use of climate science regularly. For some reason, deniers seem to be under the mistaken impression that climatologists sit around discussing global warming as their research or something.
 
There is a HUGE difference between being skeptical of proposed solutions or action plans to address AGW, and being skeptical of AGW.

Oh, nice false dichotomy by the way, that 'move away or commit political suicide'. 'Green' solutions and technologies are still tremendously popular and alternate energy research doesn't stand on AGW alone. I think you're over estimating this (or these) 'scandals' hold on the public opinions of AGW, as you are focusing on specific strategies which have never had the same level of acceptance as AGW theory overall.

It's the same type of weasel wording used in polls with pre-determined goals.

I absolutely agree with you, and I may be guilty of being overly simplistic. I am talking about what happens among the 'masses'. Solutions, the science and the politics are all separate matters entirely. I agree. But try telling that to Joe Sixpack, then ask the politician whose job is on the line if the difference matters.

Others are banging on that popular opinion does not change the science. I don't know why they see the need to do this, no one is arguing this point at all. The fact is that 'popular opinion' is changing right now.
What does it mean, why exactly do we (you) think this is happening and what might be the ramifications.

Rather than others screaming abuse about it from their soapboxes I want to explore these questions. Seems we cant.
 
Last edited:
Hiyo!
Dancing David said:
Nahh.
It wasn't my question to start with and at any rate AGW wasn't specified. The goalposts were not set, nor moved by me.
Aar, I have accepted the reply given in terms of the literal (or not) reading of the original post.

So where is the IPCC and the false data, evidence?

ETA: I did not characterize it well in this post:

You stated:
Have the IPCC not (basically) admitted they lied for politicaly prudent reasons in recent times.
So admission to lie, evidence of politics?

Evidence?
 
Public opinion has turned in Australia to the extent that the government's carbon pollution reduction scheme does not have a hope in hell of passing. The IPCC is losing the PR war in a big way, and this is what this particular thread is about, ad homs and strawmen notwithstanding.
It's a shame for public opinion to be swayed by misinformation and irrelevencies. This is something that should concern skeptics, not delight them, nor be used as a shield to hide behind. (Not to imply that you're delighted.)
 
Dancing David said:
Nahh.
It wasn't my question to start with and at any rate AGW wasn't specified. The goalposts were not set, nor moved by me.
Aar, I have accepted the reply given in terms of the literal (or not) reading of the original post.

So where is the IPCC and the false data, evidence?

ETA: I did not characterize it well in this post:

You stated:
Have the IPCC not (basically) admitted they lied for politicaly prudent reasons in recent times.
So admission to lie, evidence of politics?

Evidence?


Bumpity bump bump bumpity bump bump, look at Frosty go.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom