New death penalty study claims deterrence effect in Texas

[Francesca R]

^Don't really know what that's saying, but one reason many people dislike the deterrence notion is that it (if it is believed) can be put forward as "justifying" even erroneous executions.

 

[cwalner]

Killing people to make the death rate drop seems similar to killing them to make the sun rise. Maybe if we took them to a high place in the center of town and cut out their still beating heart we could get out the right message.

So when you claim to be for traditional American values, you think of Christians as nothing more than upstart usurpers.

 

[GlennB]

From the study :
"The study analyzed data from January 1994 through December 2005, during which 284 lethal injections were carried out in Texas ........
Of the years studied, four had more than 30 executions, including a record 40 carried out in 2000.
Researchers ran mathematical models that considered homicide figures from the Texas Department of Public Safety to see if month-to-month fluctuations in executions could be associated with subsequent month-to-month fluctuations in homicide counts."

It looks like abuse of statistics. Can statistics sue the authors for defamation of character?

 

[Piscivore]

So when you claim to be for traditional American values, you think of Christians as nothing more than upstart usurpers.

All Hail Coatlicue!

 

[commandlinegamer]

One of Britain's last executioners, Albert Pierrepoint, was quoted as saying

The fruit of my experience has this bitter aftertaste...Capital punishment, in my view, achieved nothing except revenge.

And also, in regard to an acquaintaince, nicknamed Tish, who murdered his girlfriend and had been a regular in Pierrepoint's pub:

I thought if any man had a deterrent to murder poised before him, it was this troubadour whom I called Tish. He was not only aware of the rope, he had the man who handled it beside him singing a duet. The deterrent did not work.

Not all hangmen necessarily held the view that capital punishment didn't work. I get the feeling though that aside from the fact Pierrepoint was carrying on the family business (both his father and uncle were executioners), he maybe thought if it has to be done, let it be done quickly and with dignity.

 

[stilicho]

Well, if I can switch sides for a moment. The authors of this study say that the effect is too small to notice in states that execute 2-4 people per year and that one has to have a lot of executions to notice the trend. That's why they focused only on Texas.

I'd like to see the deterrent effect of executions on non-capital crime, too. And what about expanding the definition of capital crime?

There are a lot of experiments we could try.

 

[Cain]

Are you saying that if you were traveling in a state with no death penalty, you would be more likely to commit a murder than if you were traveling in a state with a death penalty?

This is exactly what happened. A woman in Arkansas killed a man in a parking lot. She and her friend fled the state and went on a crime spree hoping to make it to Mexico. Given the opportunity to drive STRAIGHT THROUGH Texas into Mexico, she refused. Wouldn't mess with Texas. Cops ended up surrounding them at the Grand Canyon.

 

[quadraginta]

This is exactly what happened. A woman in Arkansas killed a man in a parking lot. She and her friend fled the state and went on a crime spree hoping to make it to Mexico. Given the opportunity to drive STRAIGHT THROUGH Texas into Mexico, she refused. Wouldn't mess with Texas. Cops ended up surrounding them at the Grand Canyon.

Aside from the fact that argument by anecdote isn't very useful, in this example her thinking wasn't very clear if that was the reasoning. If she killed the dude in Arkansas she wouldn't have been tried for the murder in Texas, no matter where she was apprehended.

 

[The Fool]

you execute people to get politicians elected. WTF has it got to do with murder rates?

 

[bpesta22]

Murder rates by state correlate a small .22 with number of executions in a state since 1976.

However, if you compare the 16 states that haven't executed anyone with the 24 that have, murder rates per 100,000 residents are 3.0 and 5.5, respectively, t=3.83, p , .000.

That's a pretty big effect (d is larger than 1.0)! It's got more to do with the residents of states that do and do not have a DP, then whether the DP itself is a deterrent.

I think you'd have to look within states to answer that question.

 

[cwalner]

However, if you compare the 16 states that haven't executed anyone with the 24 that have, murder rates per 100,000 residents are 3.0 and 5.5, respectively, t=3.83, p , .000.

Bpesta, this is either a typo (most likely), really bad math, or you did not include 10 states at all in your analysis. As the last one may be relevant (ie states that have the DP but have not executed anybody for some time, like CA) please advise which is the case.

 

[bpesta22]

Bpesta, this is either a typo (most likely), really bad math, or you did not include 10 states at all in your analysis. As the last one may be relevant (ie states that have the DP but have not executed anybody for some time, like CA) please advise which is the case.

Dang, good catch-- the embarrassing thing is I had to edit the post 3 times or so for other stupid typos. It is 34.

Thanks!

 

[Cain]

Aside from the fact that argument by anecdote isn't very useful, in this example her thinking wasn't very clear if that was the reasoning. If she killed the dude in Arkansas she wouldn't have been tried for the murder in Texas, no matter where she was apprehended.

Hmmmmm... now that you mention it, I think the reason she refused to go to Texas was because she had been raped there. I forget, it's been a long time since I've seen it, but I'm pretty sure Louise was the smart one.

 

[tsig]

So when you claim to be for traditional American values, you think of Christians as nothing more than upstart usurpers.

Gimme that real old time religion.

 

[stilicho]

This is exactly what happened. A woman in Arkansas killed a man in a parking lot. She and her friend fled the state and went on a crime spree hoping to make it to Mexico. Given the opportunity to drive STRAIGHT THROUGH Texas into Mexico, she refused. Wouldn't mess with Texas. Cops ended up surrounding them at the Grand Canyon.

Something sounds a little wrong about this anecdote. Please correct me if I'm wrong but each of Arkansas, Texas, and Arizona have the death penalty.

Why avoid Texas only to drive into another jurisdiction which also punishes you with lethal injection?

Perhaps the anecdote illustrates instead that criminals are dumb. Anyone have the t stats on that?

 

[stilicho]

you execute people to get politicians elected. WTF has it got to do with murder rates?

The OP report says it does.

Where do you get the idea that you execute people to get elected? I live in a nominally democratic country and we haven't executed anyone for almost half a century. I doubt anyone would get any more votes by demanding it.

Our federal election issues are:

1] Health care
2] Economy
3] Environment
4] Poverty
5] Afghanistan
6] Federal deficit
7] Urban funding
8] Child care
9] Canada-US relations

I don't even know where capital punishment would rank. It wasn't featured in the poll: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.08.30_PoliIssues.pdf

Is support for capital punishment really an election issue in Texas?

 

[Fiona]

Murder rates by state correlate a small .22 with number of executions in a state since 1976.

However, if you compare the 16 states that haven't executed anyone with the 24 that have, murder rates per 100,000 residents are 3.0 and 5.5, respectively, t=3.83, p , .000.

That's a pretty big effect (d is larger than 1.0)! It's got more to do with the residents of states that do and do not have a DP, then whether the DP itself is a deterrent.

I think you'd have to look within states to answer that question.

I don't really understand this. I found this

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-1996-2008

For 2008, the average Murder Rate of Death Penalty States was 5.2, while the average Murder Rate of States without the Death Penalty was 3.3

Is it not right?

 

[Ian Osborne]

Where do you get the idea that you execute people to get elected? I live in a nominally democratic country and we haven't executed anyone for almost half a century. I doubt anyone would get any more votes by demanding it.

It appears to be the case in America, where no one wants to be the guy who's soft on crime. Check out the case of Ricky Ray Rector and its alleged role in the 1992 presidential election.

 

[cwalner]

It appears to be the case in America, where no one wants to be the guy who's soft on crime. Check out the case of Ricky Ray Rector and its alleged role in the 1992 presidential election.

I noted that your locations lists Bath (I assume that is Bath, England, not Bath, Bubble).

As somebody who actually voted in the 1992 election, I have to say WTF? I don't even remember this as an issue in the campaign. Even so, from the link you provided it appears as if the issue was Clinton making a point to attend the execution during the campaign, not that the execution was performed to help Clinton's run for president

 

[Elaedith]

I've seen reference to studies before that showed a small short-term reduction in homocides following an execution. I remember looking at examples as a statistics exercise when I was an undergraduate. What the studies showed was that homocides initially dropped in the short-term, then rose to higher than the pre-execution rate, then dropped back to the pre-execution rate. When averaged out, there was no effect in the longer term. Is this study claiming something different? Or are they only reporting the short-term effect which I thought was already well established?