New death penalty study claims deterrence effect in Texas

[Ladewig]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/6802314.html

Apparently this story didn't travel very far outside of Texas. I cannot find many news articles about it.

HUNTSVILLE — As many as 60 people may be alive today in Texas because two dozen convicted killers were executed last year in the nation's most active capital punishment state, according to a study of death penalty deterrence by researchers from Sam Houston State University and Duke University.

A review of executions and homicides in Texas by criminologist Raymond Teske at Sam Houston in Huntsville and Duke sociologists Kenneth Land and Hui Zheng concludes a monthly decline of between 0.5 to 2.5 homicides in Texas follows each execution.
“Evidence exists of modest, short-term reductions in the numbers of homicides in Texas in the month of or after executions,” the study published in a recent issue of Criminology, a journal of the American Society of Criminology, said.

[snip]

This study, however, is the first to focus on monthly data in Texas, where researchers said the number of executions — 447 since capital punishment resumed in 1982 — is statistically significant enough “to make possible relatively stable estimates of the homicide response to executions.” A national deterrent effect can't be determined because “most states ... have not engaged in a sufficient level or frequency of executions per year,” they said.

I am having a hard time believing that they correctly calculated a monthly decline for an event that can occur 30-40 times per year, but perhaps I am biased.

Any thoughts?

 

[Puppycow]

Well, it is a peer-reviewed study.

 

[Cainkane1]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/6802314.html

Apparently this story didn't travel very far outside of Texas. I cannot find many news articles about it.



I am having a hard time believing that they correctly calculated a monthly decline for an event that can occur 30-40 times per year, but perhaps I am biased.

Any thoughts?

The death penalty would sure deter me and whose to say it hasn't detered me?

 

[Ladewig]

The death penalty would sure deter me and whose to say it hasn't detered me?

Are you saying that if you were traveling in a state with no death penalty, you would be more likely to commit a murder than if you were traveling in a state with a death penalty? I ask because we are not measuring whether punishment in general deters people (as it most probably does in your case (I could be wrong, feel free to elaborate)), we are measuring whether the death penalty deters more murders than life in prison.

 

[JFrankA]

A yellow light went up in my mind when I read the quote you posted. It said.

monthly decline of between 0.5 to 2.5 homicides in Texas follows each execution.

Which to me, leads to the question of "well, what about the month after? Does it go back up? If so, how much and is it more than the decline?"


ETA: doing a quick look around Google, I found this, but I'm not sure how accurate it is. http://www.statemaster.com/graph/cri_hom_tot_num_of_vic-crime-homicide-total-number-victims

 

[Fiona]

The USA has a higher murder rate than any other developed western country, by an order of magnitude.Those other countries do not have the death penalty.

The USA has the death penalty in some states. Those states with the death penalty do not have a lower murder rate than those which don't.

Is there some reason for ignoring all those facts in favour of this microscopic level of analysis? Or are those fact wrong ?

 

[Ladewig]

The USA has a higher murder rate than any other developed western country, by an order of magnitude.Those other countries do not have the death penalty.

The USA has the death penalty in some states. Those states with the death penalty do not have a lower murder rate than those which don't.

Is there some reason for ignoring all those facts in favour of this microscopic level of analysis? Or are those fact wrong ?

Well, if I can switch sides for a moment. The authors of this study say that the effect is too small to notice in states that execute 2-4 people per year and that one has to have a lot of executions to notice the trend. That's why they focused only on Texas.

 

[paiute]

Is there some reason for ignoring all those facts in favour of this microscopic level of analysis?

Jesus.

 

[quadraginta]

Jesus.

Is that an explanation, an exclamation, or an expletive?

 

[JihadJane]

What if they run about of people to execute - the murder rate will skyrocket?!

 

[Ocelot]

If I were a muderer in a state with the death penalty it would certainly deter me....


...from leaving any witnesses.

 

[jiggeryqua]

What if they run out of people to execute - the murder rate will skyrocket?!

Which would return the 'system' to some sort of balance, so long as the authorities can convict the culprits (or someone else, it hardly matters as far as the deterence effect is concerned, I'd imagine) and provided they have the foresight to spread their executions out on a monthly basis.

Meanwhile...

The USA has a higher murder rate than any other developed western country, by an order of magnitude.Those other countries do not have the death penalty.

They don't have guns in the hands of private citizens either, by and large. Pure coincidence of course...

The exceptions, from the top of my head, include Switzerland - which has a history of neutrality rather than warfare and where, I believe, the possession of a gun also entails a commitment or obligation to defence training.

 

[Fiona]

Well, if I can switch sides for a moment. The authors of this study say that the effect is too small to notice in states that execute 2-4 people per year and that one has to have a lot of executions to notice the trend. That's why they focused only on Texas.

Yes I understand that. What I don't understand is why the small "deterrence effect" is more important than the much larger "lack of deterrence" effect which seems to be indicated by the fact that people are not deterred, in huge numbers, in the USA whether the state has capital punishment or not.

Surely if deterrence worked the murder rate would be lower overall? Or does that not matter for some reason ?

 

[tsig]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/6802314.html

Apparently this story didn't travel very far outside of Texas. I cannot find many news articles about it.



I am having a hard time believing that they correctly calculated a monthly decline for an event that can occur 30-40 times per year, but perhaps I am biased.

Any thoughts?

Killing people to make the death rate drop seems similar to killing them to make the sun rise. Maybe if we took them to a high place in the center of town and cut out their still beating heart we could get out the right message.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The USA has a higher murder rate than any other developed western country, by an order of magnitude.Those other countries do not have the death penalty.

The USA has the death penalty in some states. Those states with the death penalty do not have a lower murder rate than those which don't.

Is there some reason for ignoring all those facts in favour of this microscopic level of analysis? Or are those fact wrong ?

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

We're #1!

 

[paiute]

Trinity

Is that an explanation, an exclamation, or an expletive?

All three.

 

[Francesca R]

Whether capital punishment deters "capital crime" is hardly a new debate, and there's a weighty arsenal of peer-reviewed studies arguing lots of different points of view. (I like this one which is pretty old).

If I was to argue against the death penalty (which I would) I would steer clear of "It doesn't deter anyway". IMO sceptics of deterrence would be best advised to pinpoint what is wrong or suspicious in the data or reasoning of the analysis that argues that it is.

 

[Aepervius]

They don't have guns in the hands of private citizens either, by and large. Pure coincidence of course...

The exceptions, from the top of my head, include Switzerland - which has a history of neutrality rather than warfare and where, I believe, the possession of a gun also entails a commitment or obligation to defence training.

Not guns, rifle as far as I remember. And in some neighbor country like France you also have (had?) a huge percentage of rifle possession and usage , for hunt. But handgun indeed were pretty rare, if you consider a few million rare (IIRC there are a few million gun permit in germany for example).

 

[rwguinn]

well, I will pretty much guarantee that those put to death have learned their lesson and will never commit another crime of any kind. Other than that? Who knows. How do you prove that something that might have happened didn't?

 

[ponderingturtle]

well, I will pretty much guarantee that those put to death have learned their lesson and will never commit another crime of any kind. Other than that? Who knows. How do you prove that something that might have happened didn't?

How about if like the wrongly convicted arsonist they never commited a crime in the first place?

I guess we can look at it this way, that sacrificing him was good for the comunity as it likely saved lives...