Does anyone really trust the CBO numbers?
Compared to what? So far, I'd trust the CBO's estimates over any others I've seen (Cato Institute, for example).
They are usually wrong and they are specifically told how to add up the numbers by whoever wrote the bill (meaning they have to count the predictions in the bill as if they are set in stone).
Are they usually wrong more than any other estimate that depends on future events?
Also, I don't think it's correct to say that they are told by the bill's sponsors
how to calculate their estimates. I think they are told which estimates to make.
Also they have to guess, round off and "estimate" how many people will do this or that regarding the bill (ie opt out and pay fines etc.) and how much aspects of it will cost now and in the future.
I agree. It's an estimate. Is there any better way to estimate the effect of a large bill like this on the federal budget? I think most of us here accept that psychics are much worse at this sort of thing.
It's a rough estimate at best and a total shot in the dark at worst especially in a health care related bill where numbers are not very solid like an estimate on building infrastructure (and even in those cases the numbers can be wrong). Also in ten years a lot of things could happen. Basically what I'm saying is that the CBO numbers don't matter in many cases and especially in health care bills.
Funny, critics of healthcare reform were clamoring for CBO estimates earlier.
Get the money first (or at least a plan to get the money) and then make a bill around that money. We should be getting UHC but this bill is a total **** up and not even close to ideal.
I agree that a true UHC system would be far better, aside from the fact that it would never pass through even this, the Congress most friendly to healthcare reform we're likely to see for a loooong time.
So, back in the real world. . . This bill sort of does what you're saying. It phases in many of the expenditure parts of the bill after a couple of years. (Critics of the CBO claim that it's a gimmick to count all ten years in a 10 year estimate since most of the deficit reduction happens in the first 5 years. I pointed out that even so, it still reduces the deficit just counting the second 5 years of that period, and beyond that, these numbers are even less certain than they already are--like doing a weather forecast for the day's weather 6 months from now.)