UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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There are plenty of charlatans out there. I find it difficult to believe that a scientist would be "afraid" to reveal his identity for fear of ridicule or fear of retribution of some kind. I am not stating that he is lying, I just find his behaviour curously unscientific.

claiming against all the evidence to be qualified at something is a usual run of the mill tactic employed by people with feelings of deep insecurity,
its quite common
of course the fact that there is no scientific qualification to enable someone to become an expert on something which is defined as "unidentified" is usually lost in the process
:D
 
If by 'Maccabee's research' you mean the link at http://www.brumac.8k.com/MexCityAug697/MexCtySmearAnalysis.html , then I strongly disagree. It confirms Sanio's statistical analysis by finding two frames in which the differences in motion blur are visible to the naked eye.

I also disagree that Sanio's analysis is not replicable. He gives the methodology, which should be enough. You compare the sharpness of horizontal lines in the UFO image with the sharpness of horizontal lines on the background buildings.
These two values should track from frame to frame, and also track the speed of apparent vertical motion in the frame.
Given that, you can write your own program to process the frames, which is what needs to happen anyway for a truly independent replication.

YES. You are right! I think this video is then most likely a HOAX.

But still I believe we cannot accept Sanio saying " I have custom built some software and it has confirmed...". Who knows if what he did was correct or accurate?

Anyway, I accept the possibility of hoax here.
 
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Let's lay it out one more time.
UFO = Unidentified Flying Object
Nothing to do with aliens is implied. It means unknown.
Unknown means we do not know. It does NOT imply we think aliens. It does not imply we think it means blimp. It does not imply we think it means a crack in a camera lens. It means we do not know.
If you are using a different definition for UFO - stop it, you're lying - either to yourself or to others.
So ALL PEOPLE IN THE WORLD WHO ARE SANE know that UFOs exist.
If you mean aliens - of any color, stripe, origin, fantasy, shape, or mathematics, say so.
If you are too ashamed of your belief to state it - that tells you something about yourself the rest of us don't need to know but you should work on.

Excuse me Lissa... I am sorry but if you read just three posts above your post (that I have just referenced) I DO state my all my beliefs very clearly... can I ask you to go back and read that post and then tell me whether I have stated my beliefs of not? Thank you.
 
Wait, maybe we're being harsh here. Does Rramjet understand how blimps work? Maybe he thinks we're just making them up to mess with his alien theory.
 
I stated:

Moreover, I KNOW eyewitness accounts can be erroneous. However I also knoiw they CAn be entirely accurate also. I also know we CAN determine what circumstances lead to misperceptions and we CAN account for that when assessing UFO reports.

That is the trick isn't it? What standards do you apply on determining how accurate a witnesses story is? What makes you an authority? Is it because you have declared yourself an expert by being a "scientist"?

Let’s get the facts on the record here:

First, a great deal of research over many years has been put into the fallibility of human perception. We now know pretty accurately, and can describe very precisely, those conditions under which our perceptions can be mislead.

Given that, when we assess the value of the information contained within a UFO report, we CAN use that previous research to inform us if there are conditions present that might lead to perceptual errors.

It has nothing to do with me being a “scientist”, it is a simple, logical procedural matter. If there are conditions present that might lead to inaccuracy in (for example) a distance estimate… then we say so. This does NOT mean that other estimates (like shape) will be inaccurate. It is “horses for courses”.

You seem to be wanting to say that just because perception IS fallible, we cannot believe anything the eyewitnesses say… and THIS is just nonsense.
 
Wait, maybe we're being harsh here. Does Rramjet understand how blimps work? Maybe he thinks we're just making them up to mess with his alien theory.

Please read the following carefully and tell me what you make of it.

"Finally in August 1947, the Navy relocated ZP-1 to Weeksville, N. C. and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."

("http://www.militarymuseum.org/MCASTustin.html)

Please note the phrase " ...and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."
 
YES. You are right! I think this video is then most likely a HOAX.

But still I believe we cannot accept Sanio saying " I have custom built some software and it has confirmed...". Who knows if what he did was correct or accurate?

Anyway, I accept the possibility of hoax here.

Well, you can accept Sanio's result, or not. If you're not going to accept it, then write your own program from first principles and show that he is wrong.

I think that would be a pretty goofy thing to try. Maccabee found two frames where the difference was very large. Even if we assume all the other frames showed zero difference, those two frames would make the overall average show that there was a difference.

I'm glad you agree it's a hoax.
 
Please read the following carefully and tell me what you make of it.

"Finally in August 1947, the Navy relocated ZP-1 to Weeksville, N. C. and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."

("http://www.militarymuseum.org/MCASTustin.html)

Please note the phrase " ...and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."

I can make a hat, or a brooch, or a pterodactyl. Sorry, can never resist the chance for an Airplane reference.

You know what my response is? Same as it was before: so that means all the blimps in the world ceased to exist? Wow.

Dude, are you saying it was IMPOSSIBLE for it to be a blimp? Totally, absolutely, no chance whatsoever, may Dawkins strike me dead if I tell a lie, impossible?
 
I can make a hat, or a brooch, or a pterodactyl. Sorry, can never resist the chance for an Airplane reference.

You know what my response is? Same as it was before: so that means all the blimps in the world ceased to exist? Wow.

Dude, are you saying it was IMPOSSIBLE for it to be a blimp? Totally, absolutely, no chance whatsoever, may Dawkins strike me dead if I tell a lie, impossible?

No, it simply means that the blimp hypothesis becomes implausible as a method of explaining Rogue River.

...and I thought I asked you to read carefully...? included in the statement is the phrase "on the West Coast"...and that is hardly the "whole world" now is it? And I think you will find that there is also the word "operations" included in there... and ceasing operations is not the same as ceasing to exist... is it...

I really think people need to focus on what it is they are claiming. Wild hyperbole is not, I contend, helpful to anyone. Logical debate using scientific standards of evidence is all I want. Nothing more. Nothing less.
 
I'm claiming it's possible it was a blimp. I'm glad to see we agree that it was indeed possible. Do you have a claim as to the identity of this object?
 
We now know pretty accurately, and can describe very precisely, those conditions under which our perceptions can be mislead.

So you are stating that we can always determine which events are misperceptions and which are not based on some sort of mysterious database or study? What determines if a case is a misperception or not? I am curious how you determine this.
 
I can make a hat, or a brooch, or a pterodactyl. Sorry, can never resist the chance for an Airplane reference.

You know what my response is? Same as it was before: so that means all the blimps in the world ceased to exist? Wow.

Dude, are you saying it was IMPOSSIBLE for it to be a blimp? Totally, absolutely, no chance whatsoever, may Dawkins strike me dead if I tell a lie, impossible?

actually its plain old misdirection, when I first researched the blimp base at Tillamook, portland it had nothing to do with the santa ana blimpbase nor specifically Navy blimps, it had everything to do with the fact that the blimp hangar at Tillamook still exists and currently serves as a war bird museum, now does anyone here want to guess why the building was not demolished when the Navy stopped using blimps and when the airbase it was on was handed over to a civilian contractor who used it for..........?
:D

also I think it might be helpful if someone defined the difference between a blimp and an airship
Blimp - non rigid
Airship - rigid

anyone want to guess what the navy moved onto after the effective use of blimps was passed in 1947
:D
 
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Oooh oooh oooh! Me sir me sir me sir!

Is it because they fly their blimp-shaped alien saucers out of there to provoke easily-debunked UFO sightings and distract us from the real NWO conspiracy?
 
You seem to be wanting to say that just because perception IS fallible, we cannot believe anything the eyewitnesses say...


And of course nobody is saying this, or even wanting to say this. Your reading comprehension problem is showing through again, kid. Or if you do understand what you're reading, then your argument here, since you are intentionally misrepresenting the truth, is a lie.

Please note the phrase " ...and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."


Please note that in May of 1949 there were several aerial photographs taken from the Goodyear blimp of areas in and around Salem, Oregon. And when did that Rogue River sighting occur again, Rramjet?

No, it simply means that the blimp hypothesis becomes implausible as a method of explaining Rogue River.

...and I thought I asked you to read carefully...? included in the statement is the phrase "on the West Coast"...and that is hardly the "whole world" now is it? And I think you will find that there is also the word "operations" included in there... and ceasing operations is not the same as ceasing to exist... is it...

I really think people need to focus on what it is they are claiming. Wild hyperbole is not, I contend, helpful to anyone. Logical debate using scientific standards of evidence is all I want. Nothing more. Nothing less.


Your ignorance of the facts presented does not make them go away. There were blimps on the west coast within the time frame necessary to make blimps a possible explanation for the Rogue River sighting. Your notion of logical debate seems to entail you steadfastly maintaining your ignorance and lying a lot. Being ignorant and lying might fly with the other kids you hang out with at school, but it doesn't go over so well around here. You'll get caught. And you have.

Oh, and it seems we had a general consensus agreement to this position...

How about we all agree that the exact identity of the sighting at Rogue River is unknown, but that clearly plausible, perfectly mundane explanations have been shown to be possible, perhaps even likely. What do you say, everyone?


You remember. Other than your mouthy assertions to the contrary, you haven't been able to show that you've eliminated all possible mundane explanations.
 
Oooh oooh oooh! Me sir me sir me sir!

Is it because they fly their blimp-shaped alien saucers out of there to provoke easily-debunked UFO sightings and distract us from the real NWO conspiracy?

exactly, the aliens also work in advertising and do filming work for sports events, now I havent researched this bit yet (because twoo believers dont care for the facts) but I'm guessing or assuming that theres at least a couple of sports stadiums in the rogue river area which are in range of Tillamook
 
(chuckles in amusement)

Name the branch of science and name the journals. Surely you can do that much without "blowing your cover."

Can I suggest then you simply apply the standards of evidence and reject my claims to be a scientist and move on?

Now, let’s see what we actually have here then…

You raise the burden of proof issue.

Tell me: If I say “aliens did it” would you expect me to show proof?
Then if you say “blimps did it”. I expect you to show proof also.
Simple really isn’t it?

You say
Read a post - then in responding 1) choose a detail that doesn't make sense to answer, and/or 2) respond to it in a way that shows he didn't comprehend the main point of the post.

Show me exactly where I have done that and you might have a point… until then… merely saying it IS so, does NOT make it so…

REPEATEDLY ask people to prove an object was a blimp, when such an assertion was never made and the request was utterly unexpected and uncalled for.

Are you seriously arguing that no-one has raised the blimp hypothesis as a way of explaining Rogue River… I believe you are simply being vexatious – for it is CLEAR to everyone (except you perhaps) that the blimp hypothesis has been a PRIMARY topic of discussion in this thread…

Besides there is this

"Finally in August 1947, the Navy relocated ZP-1 to Weeksville, N. C. and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."
("http://www.militarymuseum.org/MCASTustin.html)

And then even YOU state:
So easily decide that a mundane object such as a blimp could not POSSIBLY have seen and misinterpreted by eyewitnesses back in 1949, and thus extraterrestrial craft is an explanation that deserves our consideration.

No, on the evidence presented blimp is an implausible explanation (especially regarding the eyewitness testimony that states: circular, 25-35 feet in diameter, speed of a jet plane, no protuberances, no sound, etc. There is also the lack of fins on any other part of the object (as a blimp clearly has), lack of a “gondola” – lack of any letters of markings saying (for example) THIS is MY product! And so on. It makes the blimp hypothesis IMPLAUSIBLE.

And if you want to claim the eyewitness testimony is unreliable then you must tell me, logically and rationally, which aspects you consider unreliable.

I invite you to visit (http://www.brumac.8k.com/Rogue/RogueRiver2.htm) and argue your case... from the evidence.

Use a line of reasoning such as, "We don't know what a world visited by aliens would look like - therefore, despite the lack of observed aliens in our everyday lives, we can still believe their are aliens visiting us."

Ummm… no, you just used that (il)logic… I never have… and merely stating it is so, does not make it so.

Moreover I contend there ARE observed aliens… and I have presented evidence… if you choose not to even look at that evidence…then I cannot help you in the matter.

I don't say this to attack anyone's character or intelligence. But Rramjet has both posted arguments for our consideration and tried backing them up with a vague reference to scientific credentials, and I think it's fair for us to evaluate his claims on both points.

Actually I think you will find that I explained my motivations very clearly and precisely here:

Indeed, you are correct. But I cannot provide that evidence without "blowing my cover" so to speak and inviting you all into my home and my workplace and THAT is something I am NOT about to do at this point, given the nature of some of the posts I have been the object of here in this forum. Perhaps if you had all "played nice" I might have considered it ... but as it stands... no thanks.

So I guess you will just have to take my word for it, and if not, I am not going to argue the point. It really matters not, I was simply trying to allow people to understand that I was speaking from experience when I talked about the policy of editorial boards of peer-reviewed publications. I suppose I could link to those policies at the journals in question, but all are expensive subscription services, and while usually a general editorial policy is publicly available, their specific detailed policies are usually not...

So, indeed you are correct to be skeptical, as I would also be skeptical of such a claim if I was in your in your position.

His writing style and grammar are actually remarkable, considering what appears to be a demonstrated lack of basic comprehension skills in his posts.

That’s you opinion and you are entitled to it but merely saying it is so does not MAKE it so.

Based on this, my guesses about his scientific credentials, if they exist, are as follows:
1) His field is "UFOlogy," and he publishes to "peer-reviewed journals" in that field.
2) His field is something like "Human Relations" or "Critical Theory." If you've attended a state university in the past 15 years, you probably know what I'm talking about.
3) He is a respected scientist in a serious field of study, and this is some kind of experiment to elicit and study reactions from us.

Guess away. It is amusing to me. Can I again suggest you simply apply the standards of evidence and just reject my claims to be a scientist and move on?

But this is not about ME…this is about the evidence. Perhaps you talk about me so much in order to distract from that evidence?

For example:
The Kelly-Hopkinsville Encounter (21-22 Aug 1955)
(http://www.nicap.org/kelly-hendry.htm)
(http://ufologie.net/htm/kelly55.htm#witness)
 
Blimp debunked (again)

Here is a picture of the precise type of blimp that was flying in 1949.

Tell me, where in the witnesses descriptions does it say that "GoodYear" was written on the side of the object.

To repeat, the witness' description included:
CIRCULAR (the blimp is cigar shaped)
25-35 feet in diameter (the blimp is HUGE compared to that)
Speed of a jet plane (how fast does the Goodyear blimp go again?)
No sound (how does the blimp propel itself again?)
"rotation about the vertical axis" (hmm...)
FLAT underside

The witness descriptions LACK:
Bottom and horizontal fins
Gondola
Engines
Markings of ANY kind (certainly no "GoodYear" sign)

Then of course there is - in case anyone missed it:

"Finally in August 1947, the Navy relocated ZP-1 to Weeksville, N. C. and all blimp operations on the West Coast ended."
(http://www.militarymuseum.org/MCASTustin.html)

I therefore contend the "blimp" hypothesis entirely IMPLAUSIBLE.

Now if you wish to argue the inaccuracy of the witness descriptions, then I invite you to visit (http://www.brumac.8k.com/Rogue/RogueRiver2.htm) and using the evidence available point out precisely, logically and rationally, HOW and WHERE the witness descriptions are to be considered inaccurate so that "blimp" becomes plausible.
 

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Rramjet, let's try this again. No one said blimps did it. They said a blimp MAY have done it. The information still available to us shows this is a possibility: blimps were active in the area at the time, the eyewitness information does not rule out a blimp. So, do you accept, as you seemed to indicate earlier, that a blimp may have been the object sighted, or do you have good reason to doubt that?
 
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