The patients who thought their IV contained a powerful pain reliever required 34% less of the analgesic than the patients who weren't told anything about their IV and 16% less than the patients who were told the IV could be either a powerful pain killer or a placebo. Each group got exactly the same amount of pain killer but their requests for the analgesic differed dramatically. The only significant difference among the three groups was the set of verbal instructions about the basal infusion. The study was too short for the differences to be explained by the natural history of recovery, regression, or any of the other alternatives found by Hróbjartsson and Götzsche.
I don't find this the least bit surprising based on my experiences with multiple episodes of moderate and severe pain. If you think you're already getting a powerful pain reliever, there's a hesitance to ask for more even if it really hurts. It's hard to describe, but in a way you feel like, "Oh, well. This sucks. Might as well get used to it. They might say no anyway because they don't want you to have too much painkiller. And who wants to be the sissy that can't take some pain despite already getting a potent painkiller." If your pain is mild to moderate, you figure it's already working, so you're grateful that what you've received seems to be doing the job. After all, imagine how bad the pain would be without it. No sense asking for more because what you have is doing the job.
If, however, you're in pain and you
know you're not getting any painkillers, you ask for it, even if the pain is mild. No sense suffering needlessly, right? If you think there's a 50-50 chance you're not getting any painkiller and it hurts, why not ask for it? Then again, if the pain naturally subsided (as pain often does), you figure you're getting the strong painkiller, so you're back to the first scenario.
Then there's the fear factor. When I was younger I worked very hard to learn to tolerate pain as simply a warning signal from my body. It's almost a form of disassociation where you try to treat pain like any other sensation. Even so, when I've been in severe pain I found it a struggle to control my instinctive fear reaction. This can be especially difficult when I've had severe pain followed by relief. Any new pain that comes up during that same immediate time frame makes you think that it might come back full force.
So, if you're in the group that doesn't think there's anything in the saline solution, you're much more likely to ask for relief at the onset of a new wave of pain, even if it's mild. If, however, you think you're already getting relief, you might want a bit longer to request additional relief because your fear is alleviated by your belief that you're already getting treatment.
And since this study was based on
requests for painkillers over a limited time frame, any delays in requesting additional painkillers can be easily explained. Personally, I think the whole study sounds like it was designed by people who have never really been in serious pain or who haven't really thought about the psychology behind it.
I prefer Sol's original premise, which is dividing the groups into treatment, sham treatment and not treatment. Combine that with a less subjective outcome, preferably a binary one like fls described, and there's your evidence, whatever it may be.