From the ground I find it hard to look past the heat, stench, and the fact that we're all missing another deer season.
If in 2006 you would have told me the deadliest month in Iraq was yet to come I would have called you alarmist. Most of the Iraqi's I speak to obviously are talking to an American soldier so they may just be saying what I want to hear or are biased in some way. But most seem to have very mixed feelings about the American troop presence. On one hand they borderline support the actions of the militants (not all are terrorist and not all are insurgents but let's try not to play political word games) but they like the political security they have with the Americans around. Most Iraqis I have met were Sunni majority (give or take, depending on the area).
So it's a mixed bag. I don't see what we're really trying to accomplish. Humanitarian projects are big fat juicy targets and nothing messes up local relations quite like a massive number of casualties when we are trying to set them up with some infrastructure.
Our old terp often would say that Iraqi's are not fond of the levels of violence but they understand that it is necessary; they know how violent Iraqi's can be. Understand this is coming from a generation of folks that lived under a violent oppressive regime. We've lightened up quite a bit and the old sects that enjoyed enough public support to parade in the streets now stay home, the general population won't tolerate that, it draws in the Americans and when we hear of folks walking up and down the streets in RPGs and RPKs we get a little trigger happy.
Most Iraqi's we speak to know of at least a few fighters but many claim the majority are Syrian, Egyptian, Iranian or Saudi. The kids always seem to know when the ****'s about to hit the fan, if you see them scatter it's butt-pucker factor 8 already. So they clearly are not giving us the whole story.
One of the things I fear the most are RKG grenade attacks on convoys and most of the those seem to be coming from Iran. To see how fast they are check this out:
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/146299/humvee_attacked_with_grenades/
The CAV's big problem last rotation was al-Sadr but he's gone into hiding and it seems that his political ambitions make him reluctant to whip out the Mahdi Army. From what I understand, can rise up in no time from the regular populace in very short notice if he gives out the order.
Whenever we hear of an attack it don't make any kind of sense to us. We're on our way out and if these cats would just chill out then their problems, at least with us, would go away. We roll down routes fine that 2 years ago would have been an RPG shooting gallery. So there has been progress but it's relative progress.
The Iraqis, much to my surprise, have actually been doing a decent job of locking down their own. I hope they keep up the good work and make good use of all the training and weapons systems that the Americans gave them. Maybe the June 30th pullout is more than symbolic. But I agree with Col. Reese: I do not see the point of having troops here in 2011. Just like in 2007 I wondered why we would be needed in 2009 and my buddies deploying now or in the near future, I don't know what they'll be doing. I think it's time to drawdown to below surge levels and maybe it's even time for more trust int he ISF.
Here's hoping.
