I don't think they would go for 50 but yes that would be a one day trial.
I don't think they would go for 50 but yes that would be a one day trial.
NoZed Avenger
Penultimate Amazing
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First and most basic question:
Has any suitable place been located where these dowsing powers can work? I mean, not just "I assume there is a place" or "the must be some place," but an actual, "I have stood in a field and it will absolutely be acceptable" place?
Has any suitable place been located where these dowsing powers can work? I mean, not just "I assume there is a place" or "the must be some place," but an actual, "I have stood in a field and it will absolutely be acceptable" place?
I can look in pretty much any area and find a dead spot somewhere, has to be out side.
The wrost possible place would be where SezMe and I tested.
CynicalSkeptic
Master Poster
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EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
What are your grounds for such a statement?
Given the explanation of required odds in my previous post and the preceding MDC protocol discussion, there is no reason why 10 trials with 5 test samples would not be a reasonable prospect.
Stop making things difficult for yourself. One of the main problems with your proposed protocol IS the time required. Why not explore a protocol that satisfies the required success rate by JREF that ALSO reduces the required time to conduct the test?
If you're serious, I suggest you email the JREF team with whether 10 trials of 5 IS sufficient, rather than dismissing the suggestion out of hand. Working on reducing the effort for your protocol is going to help your chances of JREF accepting a protocol - dismissing it out of hand without consultation seems like avoidance...
politas
Pirate King
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No, but you never said you weren't, either. Leaving the target and stick unspecified leaves open the posibility that you could turn up with a hunk of magnetised steel and a rare earth magnet on a stick, and if the JREF had agreed to a protocol which said you could use whatever you wanted, they would be forced, according to the legal agreement of the protocol, to let you use it. This is why your protocol needs to specify what the target will be, and what you will use as your dowsing tool.
But your protocol doesn't state anything about this, so there's no reason you couldn't bring your stick right down close to the target.
Remember, Edge, the protocol is part of a legal agreement involving a million dollars potentially being given to you. The JREF is not going to accept a protocol that leaves possible loopholes for you to employ obvious trickery.
vIQleS
Muse
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I know that this is probably a waste of time, but here is my attempt to translate / convert / expand the OP into a readable protocol suggestion:
Equipment:
(All to be provided by edge and approved and inspected by JREF agent/s before test)
People:
Setup:
Area of land to be chosen by E - general location to be agreed upon in advance by both E and Testing Agency.
Location must include two 'isolation' locations (one for E & R3 and one for FoE & R1). If necessary, a marquee or tent will be set up to screen the testing area from participants between tests.
Imediately prior to testing, area will be dowsed by E to determine 'neutral' or 'Safe' zones with no interferance. Tent and nearby buildings will also be dowsed to make sure they are not interfering with dowsing ability.
Containers and boxes will be clearly labeled 1 - 10.
Pretest:
Open Test:
Assuming that E has passed the first 2 tests, testing will proceed to the official MDC qualifying test.:
Actual test:
10 trials consisting of the following:
E will be allowed up to [ten] minutes for each test (with aprox 5 minutes to reset each time). Total time should be no more than 2.5 hrs.
Equipment:
(All to be provided by edge and approved and inspected by JREF agent/s before test)
- 10 opaque (non-see-through) containers (or buckets if using cardboard boxes)
- Ballast material (Flour OR Rice OR Corn[to be defined])
- Quanity of gold and/or mercury (subject to state and local statutes etc)
- 10 Identical cardboard boxes (optional)
- Dowsing rod etc as needed
- Tent or Marquee (Depending on location)
- Labels - 1 to 10
- Score sheets etc
- 1D10
People:
- Edge (E)
- Friend of Edge (FoE)
- JREF Rep 1 (R1)
- JREF Rep 2 (R2)
- JREF Rep 3 (R3)
Setup:
Area of land to be chosen by E - general location to be agreed upon in advance by both E and Testing Agency.
Location must include two 'isolation' locations (one for E & R3 and one for FoE & R1). If necessary, a marquee or tent will be set up to screen the testing area from participants between tests.
Imediately prior to testing, area will be dowsed by E to determine 'neutral' or 'Safe' zones with no interferance. Tent and nearby buildings will also be dowsed to make sure they are not interfering with dowsing ability.
Containers and boxes will be clearly labeled 1 - 10.
Pretest:
- 10 containers will be loaded with ballast and placed on the ground in pre-dowsed 'safe' zones.
- One 10 sided dice will be rolled in full view of all participants
- Test Substance (TS) will be placed in the bucket or container that coresponds to the number rolled and covered or sealed
- With all participants present, E will attempt to dowse for the TS.
- Results will be recorded and then containers opened and results verified
Open Test:
- 10 containers will be loaded with ballast and placed on the ground in pre-dowsed 'safe' zones.
- E & R3 will wait in IZ2
- R2 will wait in IZ1
- R1 (in the presence of FoE) will roll dice and place TS in the appropriate container
- Containers will all be sealed and covered with boxes
- R1 wil pickup and put down each container (and the box covering) ensuring that the container remains within designated safe zone.
- R1 & FoE will retreat to IZ1 and inform R2 that the test has been set up AND which number was rolled
- R2 will go to IZ2 and tell E & R3 that they may enter the testing area and perform the dowsing. R2 will also inform them which number has been rolled
- E & R3 will enter the testing area and atempt to locate the TS by dowsing.
- Results will be recorded and then everyone will be recalled to open the containers and check results.
Assuming that E has passed the first 2 tests, testing will proceed to the official MDC qualifying test.:
Actual test:
10 trials consisting of the following:
- E & R3 will wait in IZ2
- R2 will wait in IZ1
- R1 (in the presence of FoE) will roll dice and place TS in the appropriate container
- Containers will all be sealed and covered with boxes
- R1 wil pickup and put down each container (and the box covering) ensuring that the container remains within designated safe zone.
- R1 & FoE will retreat to IZ1 and inform R2 that the test has been set up.
- R2 will go to IZ2 and tell E & R3 that they may enter the testing area and perform the dowsing.
The number rollled will obvously not be revealed during the real tests - E & R3 will enter the testing area and atempt to locate the TS by dowsing.
- Results will be recorded and then everyone will be recalled to open the containers and check results.
E will be allowed up to [ten] minutes for each test (with aprox 5 minutes to reset each time). Total time should be no more than 2.5 hrs.
Klaymore
Critical Thinker
Seems solid to me, but it won't be acceptable to Edge because it looks too much like an actual, solid, test of dowsing that would give Edge no better than a random chance of finding the test object. Edge tried that kind of test in 2002, and has spent the ensuing 7 years trying to come up with one that he can beat, but that Randi will accept.
One thing that keeps jumping out at me as I read through this thread is this continued insistence of Edge's on having 10 one-out-of 10 trials. As a rule of thumb, the JREF requires a test that gives the applicant a 1:1000 chance of passing by sheer luck (see Connie Sonne, Patricia Putt, etc.). With 10 containers and one test object, Edge should only have to run the test three times, and succeed every single time. (1:10)^3=1:1000.
One thing that keeps jumping out at me as I read through this thread is this continued insistence of Edge's on having 10 one-out-of 10 trials. As a rule of thumb, the JREF requires a test that gives the applicant a 1:1000 chance of passing by sheer luck (see Connie Sonne, Patricia Putt, etc.). With 10 containers and one test object, Edge should only have to run the test three times, and succeed every single time. (1:10)^3=1:1000.
Edited by Tricky:
Edited for moderated thread.
Last edited by a moderator:
Does this mean that edge possible never faces the gold/target while dowsing?
Spektator
Is that right?
As I understand it, and Edge will correct me if I am wrong, he wants each target to be placed in the exact same spot; so someone would bring target 1 out, place it on the limited spot; Edge would come out, dowse it, say yea or nay, and then go back out of sight of the area. Someone would remove target 1 and replace it with target 2; Edge would then come out, dowse, etc.
This looks to be much more time-consuming than the suggested protocol.
I'd suggest that Edge go for three correct tries out of three attempts at finding a 1-in-10 target.
This looks to be much more time-consuming than the suggested protocol.
I'd suggest that Edge go for three correct tries out of three attempts at finding a 1-in-10 target.
jsfisher
ETcorngods survivor
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- 24,532
This would create several problems, more than just duration. For one, what prevents someone from tampering with the containers after it has been tested by Edge?
Last edited:
remirol
Senior Wrangler
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- Jun 8, 2006
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- 8,089
Yes, I agree. It also raises my "misdirection" warning flags: it's a sufficiently artificial activity in context that I can't help but suspect there's another reason to do it this way that I just haven't seen yet. The most obvious reason, to me, is that the simple act of moving the targets around might somehow reveal some information; stationary targets can be checked to ensure similarity and all "cleared" prior to the test actually beginning. Moving this check to the time period when the test is ongoing introduces a potential for error (intentional or otherwise) that I simply can't see the need to permit.
Edge, is there any particular reason you would need things to be done this way?
Tricky
Briefly immortal
I don't suspect Edge of some ulterior motive in asking for this. I think he honestly thinks that the difference of a few feet in location will give different "vibes" that he will be unable do distinguish from the target. I suspect that this is in part because he actually has tested himself in private and has found that his "powers" are highly variable. This says two things to me. First, that he is doing his best to test himself honestly, and secondly, that the conclusion that he has no powers is not an acceptable explanation.
Randi himself has said that among test applicants, dowsers are far an away the most honest and the most likely to agree to a fair test. Unfortunately, like Edge showed after his first test and like Connie Sonne showed after her test, they are not so honest and fair that they won't find some excuse to make for their failure. Unlike "psychic" frauds though, this is not out of intent to decieve, but out of inability to let go of their beliefs.
vIQleS
Muse
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- Dec 14, 2005
- Messages
- 841
Yes - I meant to add something to that effect. I would suggest video surveilence of the test area and both holding zones. Also the video would have to be able to see the d10 and the test area, so probably 2 cameras there. But I'm sure that the JREF has their min recomendations for that sort of thing...
If by faces, you mean sees, then no - after the first open test, he will not see the gold until the dowsing has been completed. When teh results have been recorded, then the buckets are checked with all participants present.
Otherwise I'm not sure what you mean - he can face anyway he likes while dowsing...
Spektator said:
Yeah - I was a bit confused by this, and had intended to get clarification from Edge. I'm not sure why, or how much more effort it would take. Unless they setup some sort of conveyor belt...
I meant: Does this mean that under your proposed protocol, the target is possibly never put before edge's dowsing rod for edge to dowse, due to the numbers rolled with the dice?
Open means I can see the target.
I had to do this ten times because of ten different placses the containers where set on.
In this test there is only one spot for the containers to sit on.
We only need to do that once as i get the readings when the target is there and when it is not.
I can check the other 9 non targget containers to make sure the readings are all the same when no target is present.
Sezme and i went into the closed blind test right after I got the two different readings, this saved time.
As far as the blind test target appears one out of ten passes.
Ehocking said:
This would save time too.
Basically if you look at SezMes' test that would be the way only in those ten tries the target would appear only once. and we would have 9 more sets to do.
vIQleS not bad.
Study the way the open test was done in 2002, I had to dowse ten times , all I need is 2 times with this protocol, the target doesn't have to appear in every container for me to know my so called powers are working.
When SezMe and I did it I took my 2 inital readings and went right into it,"the blind test", it was simple and fast.
I had to do this ten times because of ten different placses the containers where set on.
In this test there is only one spot for the containers to sit on.
We only need to do that once as i get the readings when the target is there and when it is not.
I can check the other 9 non targget containers to make sure the readings are all the same when no target is present.
Sezme and i went into the closed blind test right after I got the two different readings, this saved time.
As far as the blind test target appears one out of ten passes.
Ehocking said:
This would save time too.
Basically if you look at SezMes' test that would be the way only in those ten tries the target would appear only once. and we would have 9 more sets to do.
vIQleS not bad.
Study the way the open test was done in 2002, I had to dowse ten times , all I need is 2 times with this protocol, the target doesn't have to appear in every container for me to know my so called powers are working.
When SezMe and I did it I took my 2 inital readings and went right into it,"the blind test", it was simple and fast.
Open and closed test consists of 10, 11.5 once coffee cans made of plastic.
Each can is to have approximately 10 ounces of filler or ballast.
That ballast can be corn, rice.
I will choose a spot in a park or at a house where I will set up a tri pod app. 5 feet tall somewhere in Ft-Lauderdale.
From there I will hang a scale on a short piece of twine and from it’s clip I will hang another short piece of twine to which my dowsing stick will be tied as in the SezMe test.
For the open test I will check the readings of the containers with all the ballast in place then once with the target assuring all the readings are the same empty or with target.
Targeted and empty containers in full view. Lids off.
Once I am satisfied we can proceed to the closed test.
1: All targets will pass across one spot, one at a time.
2: There will be 100 passes with the target showing up 10 time in all the passes, once every ten sets of passes.
4: Let me put it another way each set of ten will have the target show up once there will be ten sets of ten containers.
5: As before you will want me to get at least 8 of ten correct, picking out the target each
time they are present, this will mean also that I have to get 90 correct hits on the
empty containers with out the target present, that in it's self is an extraordinary
accomplishment.
EHocking says, above in number 5 all I need is 7 out of 10 to match the odds. Number 6 he says:
6: You could reduce both setup and trial time as well as material needed by testing for 1
sample in 5 containers.
Admittedly, you'd have to get 10 from 10 for a 10 pass trial to beat 1:1Million odds, but
has JREF determined that these MUST be the odds you need to beat for the preliminary?
This means the target will be changed every tenth time or every fifth time in ten total
sets for each.
7: One of your people hangs with me one of mine hangs with you.
8: Anything else you want to do to insure I don’t see or hear is up to you. Depending on
where we are at when I choose a spot.
9: You can also cover the containers with a box also made of cardboard or plastic on the
X spot.
10: The target can be any kind of metal, gold, iron, nickel, silver, as long as it is metal.
I might even use mercury if you aren’t scared since mercury covered gold is mined
where I was dredging.
Target will be in it’s own container placed in the can with the ballast and when on the
X spot it all can be covered with a small cardboard box, triple wrapped so to say.
11: I might use silver or a regular dime or gold in the end of the dowsing stick.
12: You can use cards or dice to get the number 1 through10 for placement of targets in
which container that coincides with that number or 1 through 5.
13: You can send the cans through in any order of each set, either 1through 5 or 1
through 10 set.
14: the JREF team with one of my members will pick a card or roll a dice to get the number
of the can that will hold the target then they will place the cans on the spot one at a
time and each time I will come out to the x spot and say yes or no.
15: to win the million I must repeat the closed test one more time if I understand this correctly.
Did I leave any thing out is it understandable.
Each can is to have approximately 10 ounces of filler or ballast.
That ballast can be corn, rice.
I will choose a spot in a park or at a house where I will set up a tri pod app. 5 feet tall somewhere in Ft-Lauderdale.
From there I will hang a scale on a short piece of twine and from it’s clip I will hang another short piece of twine to which my dowsing stick will be tied as in the SezMe test.
For the open test I will check the readings of the containers with all the ballast in place then once with the target assuring all the readings are the same empty or with target.
Targeted and empty containers in full view. Lids off.
Once I am satisfied we can proceed to the closed test.
1: All targets will pass across one spot, one at a time.
2: There will be 100 passes with the target showing up 10 time in all the passes, once every ten sets of passes.
4: Let me put it another way each set of ten will have the target show up once there will be ten sets of ten containers.
5: As before you will want me to get at least 8 of ten correct, picking out the target each
time they are present, this will mean also that I have to get 90 correct hits on the
empty containers with out the target present, that in it's self is an extraordinary
accomplishment.
EHocking says, above in number 5 all I need is 7 out of 10 to match the odds. Number 6 he says:
6: You could reduce both setup and trial time as well as material needed by testing for 1
sample in 5 containers.
Admittedly, you'd have to get 10 from 10 for a 10 pass trial to beat 1:1Million odds, but
has JREF determined that these MUST be the odds you need to beat for the preliminary?
This means the target will be changed every tenth time or every fifth time in ten total
sets for each.
7: One of your people hangs with me one of mine hangs with you.
8: Anything else you want to do to insure I don’t see or hear is up to you. Depending on
where we are at when I choose a spot.
9: You can also cover the containers with a box also made of cardboard or plastic on the
X spot.
10: The target can be any kind of metal, gold, iron, nickel, silver, as long as it is metal.
I might even use mercury if you aren’t scared since mercury covered gold is mined
where I was dredging.
Target will be in it’s own container placed in the can with the ballast and when on the
X spot it all can be covered with a small cardboard box, triple wrapped so to say.
11: I might use silver or a regular dime or gold in the end of the dowsing stick.
12: You can use cards or dice to get the number 1 through10 for placement of targets in
which container that coincides with that number or 1 through 5.
13: You can send the cans through in any order of each set, either 1through 5 or 1
through 10 set.
14: the JREF team with one of my members will pick a card or roll a dice to get the number
of the can that will hold the target then they will place the cans on the spot one at a
time and each time I will come out to the x spot and say yes or no.
15: to win the million I must repeat the closed test one more time if I understand this correctly.
Did I leave any thing out is it understandable.
Knowing your previous insisting on "the right spot" and understanding the need to adhere to your protocol, have you tried to find a suitable spot in Ft. Lauderdale?
If you haven't - which I assume, since you do not live in the neighbourhood - what besides your previously mentioned "convenience for the JREF" makes you claim "somewhere in Ft. Lauderdale" is acceptable for your protocol?
Are you absolutely sure your protocol will meet the JREF's demand for a test duration of less than eight hours?
vIQleS
Muse
- Joined
- Dec 14, 2005
- Messages
- 841
Edge said:
Still a little confusing in parts...
Friendly suggestion: If you have to say (in one of your steps) "Let me put it another way" then perhaps you need to rewrite the previous step...
How about: My protocol, but instead of 10 containers spread out - we'll just do one at a time.
- Roll a 4 sided die. If the result is 4, load the gold into the can. If not - can will have only ballast.
Then the dowsing result for each trial will be simply "yes" or "no". With there being a 1 in 4 chance of being right.
You could of course use a 6, 10, 20 or 100 sided die until the odds are as you want it.