Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

[DogB]

The 2015 date refers to CD's predicted ice free arctic.

The presience comment refers to a subject I cannot discuss.

 

[macdoc]

......`

That SAID I'd hardly call the unmentionable it prescience.....

Calling a 2015 date to - that's getting close to a crystal ball call and t'weren't me.

 

[varwoche]

Arrghh, an irrefutible blog post about "fraud" from a computer scientist.....the anti-Poptech?

I can probably find a zillion similar blog entries about "fraud" espoused by those on either side of this argument.

What hurts worse, your knee or chin?

 

[macdoc]

tch tch...things just not breaking in the denidiots favour are they....

No more La Nina.....

Global Ocean Surface Temperature Warmest On Record For June

ScienceDaily (July 27, 2009) — The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for June, breaking the previous high mark set in 2005, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Additionally, the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for June was second-warmest on record. The global records began in 1880.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090725120303.htm

 

[BenBurch]

The FIRST ice-free year will be an outlier like 2007 was, in all likelihood.

It might then be many more years before ice-free will be the rule.

 

[aleCcowaN]

tch tch...things just not breaking in the denidiots favour are they....

No more La Nina.....



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090725120303.htm

La Niña ... ALT 0241 ---> ñ

We can also share the last sea temperature anomaly

An acquaintance near Christchurch, New Zealand, is claiming that there's global cooling. I wonder why ...

 

[Tricky]

A small derail removed. Please stay on topic.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Tricky

 

[bobdroege7]

[/I]

Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 9, May, 2007)
- G. Delisle

I thought you said all the models were wrong and therefore useless or some such.

 

[lomiller]

Lambert says-

Hansen et al's paper is not available online

He refers to the Hansen Senate testimony.

Do you have some proof it was avialable online back in 2006 when that article was written?

 

[macdoc]

Funny he's gonna have a hard time squaring the permafrost model which he counts on to support "what global warming"..... with the OBSERVED methane increase

RELEASE : 08-276

NASA Measurements Show Greenhouse Gas Methane on the Rise Again

WASHINGTON -- The amount of methane in Earth's atmosphere shot up in 2007, bringing to an end approximately a decade in which atmospheric levels of the potent greenhouse gas were essentially stable. The new study is based on data from a worldwide NASA-funded measurement network.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/oct/HQ_08-276_Methane_levels.html

and OBSERVED increase in river flow into the Arctic Ocean....

Arctic Rivers Discharge More Freshwater Into Ocean, Reflecting Changes To Hydrologic Cycle

WASHINGTON -- Far northern rivers are discharging increasing amounts of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, due to intensified precipitation caused by global warming, say researchers at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom.

http://www.biology-online.org/articles/arctic-rivers-discharge-freshwater-ocean.html

Little dated as usual...Nothing new there from Poptech - his head buried in OpEd political journal nonsense instead of science....

Hey Poptech...question 2 you won't answer Is methane a forcing??
How embarrassing for you - a straight forward easy question in a science forum and you squirm and wriggle away from answering it.....

Kinda dents your "case"..... I guess you think dated lists of marginally relevant and in some cases irrelevant papers makes you look informed....

actually it just makes you look foolish...

 

[mhaze]

Do you have some proof it was avialable online back in 2006 when that article was written?

Not sure where you are going with that. "Available" is not equal to "Available Online".

I put it online in 2008, and agree with Lambert that it was not available online previously. It was from microfiche records, and those from 1988 were not / are not digitized/on line. That should include not available Lexus/Nexus.

Which puts you squarely in the place of realizing that Lambert, and Krugman did not know what they were talking about when they smeared Michaels. But facts just get in the way of smear making, don't they?

 

[BenBurch]

Not sure where you are going with that. "Available" is not equal to "Available Online".

I put it online in 2008, and agree with Lambert that it was not available online previously. It was from microfiche records, and those from 1988 were not / are not digitized/on line. That should include not available Lexus/Nexus.

Which puts you squarely in the place of realizing that Lambert, and Krugman did not know what they were talking about when they smeared Michaels. But facts just get in the way of smear making, don't they?

And exactly why should I trust your transcription?

 

[Poptech]

Of course it's "gaining", don't you know what a delta is? don't you know what a rives is? The matter is it's gaining less every year, they have to increasingly build dykes, as your beauty parlor waiting room article says -letter by letter-. In fact is gaining land but it has to be surrounded by more dykes and wash the land -new lands and more and more of the old ones are salty marshes-. The fact is that without the sea level raising all would be easier there.

You fail to realize this goes against the hysteria. Technology is able to allow adaptation to climate change. I am glad you believe in mythical religious figures who can control the tides but I do not share in those religious beliefs.

Edited by Lisa Simpson: 

Edited to remove personal remarks.

Please keep in mind the Membership Agreement and do not use personal attacks to argue your point.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Lisa Simpson

 

[mhaze]

And exactly why should I trust your transcription?

What transcription? I just xeroxed twenty some pages from the old microfiche into a pdf.

The microfiche of the Congressional Record is available in the larger libraries.

 

[BenBurch]

What transcription? I just xeroxed twenty some pages from the old microfiche into a pdf.

The microfiche of the Congressional Record is available in the larger libraries.

In that case, I apologize.

 

[Poptech]

There is a huge difference between Pascal's Wager and the Precautionary Principal in regards to AGW.

So now it is not Pascal's wager I was responding to but the precautionary principle? Interesting but I will cover that too...

Precautionary Tale (Reason)

Hmm. Didn't think so. Oh well, back to our imperfect models, then...

You didn't think your strawman argument would work? Me neither.

Despite that Michaels is one of the few deniers with legit credentials.

Yes all you can do against Dr. Michaels is the typical smear, yet he still exists.

 

[Poptech]

Nope.

What is funny is Lambert's pathetic attempt to discredit Dr. Pielke's analysis can only be supported by true believers. Because his conclusion is irrefutable:

Evaluating Jim Hansen’s 1988 Climate Forecast (Roger A. Pielke Jr. Ph.D. Professor of Environmental Studies)

It appears that Jim Hansen may have gotten the right answer on temperature for the wrong reasons because his assumptions about emissions paths were not accurate.

If you throw up enough lines you can get one "close enough" it is only after examining how you got those lines Hansen's whole argument falls apart. If the "close enough" (which is still wrong) line was achieved from emission scenarios that did not happen, it only proves one thing, you are wrong.

 

[Poptech]

The FIRST ice-free year will be an outlier like 2007 was, in all likelihood.

It might then be many more years before ice-free will be the rule.

Just like 6000-7000 years ago?

Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago (Geological Survey of Norway)

I thought you said all the models were wrong and therefore useless or some such.

That is for the alarmist's whose permafrost doomsday are based on models. You now have contradictory modeled results, amazing.

 

[BenBurch]

Poptech, that article does not support an ice-free arctic ocean. Nice try, though.

 

[DogB]

Poptech, that article does not support an ice-free arctic ocean. Nice try, though.

It kinda suggests it Ben

”The beach ridges which we have had dated to about 6000-7000 years ago were shaped by wave activity,” says Astrid Lyså. They are located at the mouth of Independence Fjord in North Greenland, on an open, flat plain facing directly onto the Arctic Ocean. Today, drift ice forms a continuous cover from the land here.
Astrid Lyså says that such old beach formations require that the sea all the way to the North Pole was periodically ice free for a long time.

”This stands in sharp contrast to the present-day situation where only ridges piled up by pack ice are being formed,” she says.

(My bolding)

How much emphasis you put on a few 6000 year old ridges in a sand bar is up to you. Me - I remain quietly sceptical.