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Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

That's only the case if the temperature in a given node evolves independently from all the other nodes.

No.

If you have a finite difference mesh, for example, the only way to solve a heat transfer problem is to have the nodes interdependent.

You might get the luck of having sparse matrices, which help you computationally by reducing the effective DOF, but you still have lots of DOF when you have lots of nodes, or lots of variables to track at those nodes.
 
No.

If you have a finite difference mesh, for example, the only way to solve a heat transfer problem is to have the nodes interdependent.

You might get the luck of having sparse matrices, which help you computationally by reducing the effective DOF, but you still have lots of DOF when you have lots of nodes, or lots of variables to track at those nodes.

From our friend wikipedia:

Degrees of freedom can mean:

 
Focus. I know it is hard.

The subject is whether the IPCC relies only on inferences from computer modeling to "prove AGW" .

Google is your friend.
Nice try!!! But you fail to answer the obvious: you declared you'd shred "it" whatever the argument or source. That is outstanding, specially when you intruded a discussion between the addressee of your message and your doppelganger in this thread.

I only tried to point that you "must" find wrong and shred any issue -whatever it is- which that specific addressee might submit to your consideration, you, your Majesty Hate the Last.

So far it looks that your techniques is saying "that dollar of yours doesn't prove you are a billionaire; and that other dollar of yours doesn't prove you are a billionaire; and that other dollar of yours doesn't prove you are a billionaires; [repeat one billion times]" (and don't try it at home mHate; shedding bank notes is a crime).

Meanwhile, the fruit of you own thinking has been playing with the concept of DOF from being millions to one sole "no matter it is 30 years".

Then, your spirit is that of shredding every single argument submitted, declaring you'll shred them without knowing its content -this sole thing must be proof enough of your ill aims-, when you were wandering from one issue to another, saying half sentences and changing your arguments, even the role of what you brought in as an argument, just because all comes from a being that is right by definition, one being with only one degree of freedom: the mighty will of All-mighty mHate.

My point was and is that putting under the spotlight the basic orientations of your person leaves the discussion as a clean slate and leaves you as you were brought to this world: al fresco and screaming!
 
As I have said before that is a stupid stupid argument. You would think that large mechanical models that move about wouldn't be a good model for electromagnetic radiation.
You can say what you want, it does make it anymore true. You still do not understand what I said. It is a comparison between the real and virtual worlds. The word "laboratory" is not literal but a necessity thanks to matt's attempt to distort my argument. Any experiment done in the real world will obey all natural laws whether you understand them or not, essentially "nature" fills in the blanks for you, this is not done in a computer simulation.

No. Your just a person who thinks that they know everything about modeling and has ended up contradicting every single application of it. Airplanes, cars, surgical equipment, and a bunch of other things in this whole world utilize computers in a manner that you think is impossible.
I have not contradicted anything. Computers are a fantastic invention that are very useful in all manners of science and engineering for the processing and analysis of data. They are however not able to predict the future. I find it ironic that at a forum denouncing all sorts of new-age mysticism, tech-based fortune tellers are just believed. You constantly attempt to distort my argument and fabricate strawman positions due to your lack of understanding exactly what I am talking about.

Not to mention economic models, which Poptech has claimed not to believe in and yet has repeatedly cited in support of his claims about the economic consequences of remediation measures.
Please show me where I have stated the belief in the predictive abilities of economic models. What I did is cite papers (some of which used economic models) at your request that show the negative effects of cap and trade. I in no way endorsed any of the modeled conclusions.

First of all: Laboratory conditions can often differ from natural environments in important, overlooked ways. The history of science is littered with cases where something worked brilliantly in the lab, but failed miserably in the field.
Again you are taking the word "laboratory" literal. I was forced to use that word because of Matt's attempt to distort my argument. I use the word "laboratory" to describe the virtual reality "environment" from the REAL "environment" in which an experiment is taking place and not a comparison between the virtual and real experiment but rather where is was being done.

Second of all: The conclusions drawn from lab and field studies are also models. They might not always be computer models. But, they are scientific models, and subject to the same corrections as computerized ones.
You still have failed to provide your definition of the word "model". I am speaking ONLY of computer models, specifically computer climate models.

What is not clear about this?!
The definition and the context of the word "model".

Then you better go warn all the pilots-in-training that their flight simulators are not realistic enough!!
Computer flight simulations are vastly different then computer climate models. The only comparison is they are both simulations.

Then your empirical studies would also be equally wasted time.

Empirical studies, that you propose, are just like computer models, except that the math for the conclusions are not done by a computer.
Empirical observations and experiments are done in a REAL environment and have a chance of being correct since they are not subject to the bias of the virtual "laboratory". People fail to understand this simple point.

Virtual reality can be whatever you want it to be and computer climate models are just that, they are the code based on the subjective opinions of the scientists creating them. The real world has no such bias.
 
...You constantly attempt to distort my argument and fabricate strawman positions due to your lack of understanding exactly what I am talking about....

It must be utterly frustrating. But as I stated way in the beginning of your introducing yourself here, maybe this has something to do with how you express yourself instead of what you're expressing.

Any thoughts on that?
 
You can say what you want, it does make it anymore true. You still do not understand what I said. It is a comparison between the real and virtual worlds. The word "laboratory" is not literal but a necessity thanks to matt's attempt to distort my argument. Any experiment done in the real world will obey all natural laws whether you understand them or not, essentially "nature" fills in the blanks for you, this is not done in a computer simulation.
And so do experiments done in the virtual world. Its the bare assertion fallacy.
 
And so do experiments done in the virtual world. Its the bare assertion fallacy.
ROFLMAO!!! No they do not! So are you claiming computer climate models are 100% perfect representations of the REAL world? Are you claiming that computer climate models 100% perfectly obey all natural laws? Are you claiming that everything in nature is 100% perfectly understood and can be describe by a mathematical equation in a computer climate model? You cannot be this clueless.
 
LMAO! Matt you are lying because you don't understand, it is sad.

LMAO! It must be nice to just keep adjusting your model as it fails over and over and over and then declare victory after each adjustment! This has to be the biggest scam in the history of science.

ROFLMAO!!! No they do not! So are you claiming computer climate models are 100% perfect representations of the REAL world? Are you claiming that computer climate models 100% perfectly obey all natural laws? Are you claiming that everything in nature is 100% perfectly understood and can be describe by a mathematical equation in a computer climate model? You cannot be this clueless.
It seems like your orbit is quickly decaying. You're about to ignite yourself!

By the way, yet another thread without clear subject and statements on your part...
 
Since this seems to be a common complaint with you I believe it to be your lack of understanding of the English language.
Well, he's welcome to post in native Spanish (I guess). But if 2/3 of the stuff doesn't make any sense then....
 
Edited by Tricky: 
Post removed.

Stay on topic and especially do not stray off topic in order to insult other members.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Tricky
 
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It must be utterly frustrating. But as I stated way in the beginning of your introducing yourself here, maybe this has something to do with how you express yourself instead of what you're expressing.

Any thoughts on that?
Probably not. But then that might be due to my having a background in computer science and understanding the issues that Poptech raised.

Are others here so illiterate regarding computer science that they cannot respond to Poptech without misrepresentation or misunderstanding?

We've just seen one such clear illiteracy demonstrated regarding "Validation", and another regarding "degrees of freedom". I am leaning a bit toward illiteracy and cluelessness as the answer. Note that familiarity with PCs, Macs, etc. is not computer literacy in the sense I use it.

Is it Poptech's job to educatify?

I think not.
 
Please show me where I have stated the belief in the predictive abilities of economic models. What I did is cite papers (some of which used economic models) at your request that show the negative effects of cap and trade. I in no way endorsed any of the modeled conclusions.


The contradiction is repeated and becomes clearer.

You still claim that the papers you cited "show the negative effects of cap and trade." That's an endorsement of their conclusions. You did not say anything like "what I did is cite papers whose conclusions agree with mine, though most of them (all the ones using economic models) actually show nothing." Instead you still claim the papers "show the negative effects of cap and trade."

So, you "in no way endorsed them." Except by citing them as supporting evidence for your position. :rolleyes:

As Judge Judy would put it: "If what you say doesn't make any sense then you're not telling me the truth."

Arguments of such nature are an unmistakable sign of dishonest agenda-driven spin. Of someone trying to make someone else believe something false and act against their own interests. "We had to destroy the village in order to save it." "I voted against the bill before I voted for it." "I smoked it but I did not inhale."

From what I've seen so far, I think it's very likely that the most confident critics of climate models on science forums undergo a wonderful metamorphosis in debates on other economic issues in which the validity of climate models are not at issue. I would not be surprised if, any time the findings of economic models support their position, their blanket dismissal of the predictive power of computer models vanishes completely. Would anyone else?

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
We've just seen one such clear illiteracy demonstrated regarding "Validation", and another regarding "degrees of freedom". I am leaning a bit toward illiteracy and cluelessness as the answer. Note that familiarity with PCs, Macs, etc. is not computer literacy in the sense I use it.

:dl:

Sanctimonious horsepucky.....

computers are tools and to use them one has to have a grasp of the real world to which to apply them......something in dire short supply from the denidiot crowd.
 
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The contradiction is repeated and becomes clearer.

You still claim that the papers you cited "show the negative effects of cap and trade." That's an endorsement of their conclusions. You did not say anything like "what I did is cite papers whose conclusions agree with mine, though most of them (all the ones using economic models) actually show nothing." Instead you still claim the papers "show the negative effects of cap and trade."
Actually I didn't say anything at all but merely listed the papers. You then created strawman arguments based on things I did not say. But to clarify, only the papers citing economic models as the sole source of their conclusions claim to show the negative effects of cap and trade. This has nothing to do with me endorsing economic models. I simply provided the existence of such papers to your challenge. And a note, only two of the papers are directly related to modeled results, others merely analyze other models currently being used by the proponents of cap and trade legislation. I have waited for your acknowledgement of this but your dishonesty in creating strawman arguments appears more important.

So, you "in no way endorsed them." Except by citing them as supporting evidence for your position.
I in no way endorse the conclusions of the papers whose sole source of their conclusions are economic models (this works both ways). But see you are creating a strawman as to why I cited them, it was to prove the existence of such papers. I was well aware of this whole charade you are currently engaged in. Your whole purpose was to then engage in more slander as is the typical goal of certain JREF members. Again you lose.
 
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Is everyone on the same page here, in regards to degrees of freedom (DOF)?

If each node of a global climate model is tracking temperature only, and you have one million nodes, you have one million degrees of freedom in the model.

If you track precipitation, cloud cover, aerosols or other data at each node, the model DOF will go up accordingly.

Perhaps I used the term too loosely, as pointed out it’s a broad term that can vary depending on the specific topic. In the context of my post you can take it to mean values that are free to change independently. Temperature or cloud formation, for example, would be a fully dependant variables, as you have no freedom to set them. Instead they are completely a function of the physics in the model itself. In a statistical model on the other hand, virtually everything is potentially an independent variable.

For the study of CO2 the only variable that would change would be CO2 concentrations. In practice, there are indeed parameters in a climate model that can be set, but these represent observable physical behavior so their value cannot be arbitrarily entered by the modelers, though different modelers may rely on different sources for it’s value and therefore get slightly different results, which is one of the reasons the IPCC uses ensembles of different model runs.

Realclimate has a good article on how parameters are used and handled in climate models.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/faq-on-climate-models-part-ii/
 
The contradiction is repeated and becomes clearer.
....From what I've seen so far, I think it's very likely that the most confident critics of climate models on science forums undergo a wonderful metamorphosis in debates on other economic issues in which the validity of climate models are not at issue. I would not be surprised if, any time the findings of economic models support their position, their blanket dismissal of the predictive power of computer models vanishes completely. Would anyone else?

Respectfully,
Myriad
That makes NO sense.

Is this your intent?

Something like NON BELIEVER in climate modes --> BELIEVER in economic models?

There is no basis for such a concept.
 
ROFLMAO!!! No they do not!
Yeah they do. Why do you think I bring up Maxwell's equations the last time I lambasted you. It was a ****ing mechanical model.
ROFLMAO!!! No they do not! So are you claiming computer climate models are 100% perfect representations of the REAL world? Are you claiming that computer climate models 100% perfectly obey all natural laws? Are you claiming that everything in nature is 100% perfectly understood and can be describe by a mathematical equation in a computer climate model? You cannot be this clueless.
Ooo god. I am about ready to scream. No. I am claiming that you are an have no understanding of the fundamentals of science because of the fact that no model in science is 100% correct and the fact is that it does not invalidate any of them. I mean come on. You've had to have opened a science book at one time or another. This is just really sad more than anything.
 
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Perhaps I used the term too loosely, as pointed out it’s a broad term that can vary depending on the specific topic. In the context of my post you can take it to mean values that are free to change independently. Temperature or cloud formation, for example, would be a fully dependant variables, as you have no freedom to set them. Instead they are completely a function of the physics in the model itself. In a statistical model on the other hand, virtually everything is potentially an independent variable.

For the study of CO2 the only variable that would change would be CO2 concentrations. In practice, there are indeed parameters in a climate model that can be set, but these represent observable physical behavior so their value cannot be arbitrarily entered by the modelers, though different modelers may rely on different sources for it’s value and therefore get slightly different results, which is one of the reasons the IPCC uses ensembles of different model runs.

Realclimate has a good article on how parameters are used and handled in climate models.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/faq-on-climate-models-part-ii/

good post, and I like the link.

I always try to remember that in computer models, complexity is related not only to the physics being modeled, but also on the resolution of the model...

that's why when I used to run my FEA models, I would start simple (2-D) and then cautiously move to 3-D. Increases in the DOF helped with the accuracy, but gave issues with run time and sometimes convergence.
 

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