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Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

it's all there, including links to your earlier comments. Anyone can see it. In fact, I'm certain many people have seen it by now. Like I said, too bad. For you.
No Matt Tell me exactly what I said and don't just post your butchered comment of mine. Post the exact quote only. Come on you can do it. Post the words I said and prove I was talking about experiments not the "laboratory".

Don't be afraid.
 
Fixed that for you.
No Matt Tell me exactly what I said and don't just post your butchered comment of mine. Post the exact quote only. Come on you can do it. Post the words I said and prove I was talking about experiments not the "laboratory".

Matt why are you dodging?
 
Well, I started with this one:


And look what I found inside:

4.2 MODEL DESCRIPTION
This section briefly describes the three models: MS-MRT, MRN, and NEEM. It also provides more information on how the models are linked.

4.2.1 Overview of the MS-MRT sub-model
MS-MRT represents the entire world at an extremely aggregated level. It is built upon the GTAP6-IEA database,8 which includes 83 countries/regions and 23 industries. For this project, we aggregated the dataset into the following regions: USA, Europe, Other OECD, Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, Middle East, China and India, high income East Asia, and the rest of the world. To be consistent with the MRN model, the dataset included the following sectors: coal, crude oil, electricity, natural gas, refined petroleum products, agriculture, energy-intensive sectors, manufacturing, services, and commercial transportation.


Oh dear, do you think these models that this report's findings are based on might have been run on a computer, by any chance? Because, if they are, you must reject this report as mere "virtual reality." Or be shown to be inconsistent, if not outright hypocritical. "MS-MRT represents the entire world!" Does it, now? And here I thought that was impossible! :eek:

Would you like to retract that citation now, for being nothing but virtual reality?

Going to check out the others now. I wonder what I'll find?

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
No Matt Tell me exactly what I said and don't just post your butchered comment of mine. Post the exact quote only. Come on you can do it. Post the words I said and prove I was talking about experiments not the "laboratory".

Don't be afraid.

Okay, sure. You asked for it...

Here's the first one:
My dismissal of the use of computer climate models for scientific conclusions, predictions and policy is based solely on computer science. The models are not a 100% perfect reproduction of the earth and all it contains in real time, therefore they cannot predict anything. I am just amazed at the lack of understanding people have with computer systems.

And here's the second one - the money shot:
100% accuracy is required for relevant results. But weather models are tracking real time data and essentially just extrapolating basic weather movement, cloud cover, rain ect... Long term weather modeling is where it becomes laughable. Climate models are attempting to simulate the climate and give temperature projections 100 years from now. Total nonsense.

And here's my continuing challenge to you.

Don't trip over anything and hurt yourself when you run away... again.
 
Okay, sure. You asked for it...

The models are not a 100% perfect reproduction of the earth and all it contains in real time, therefore they cannot predict anything.

100% accuracy is required for relevant results.
Yes accuracy as in the "laboratory". I made no claim separating or specifically talking about experiments. The "laboratory" has to be 100% accurate. Again this is your constant confusion of which I have attempted to clear up OVER AND OVER AND OVER.
 
What do you think skeptics have been asking for?
Where is the evidence that they are not already doing that?

From what I understand, calibrating these models, until they reflect real world data, is what eats most of the modeler's time.

Then why is the IPCC's conclusions all based on computer models
Actually, if you read their publications and supporting materials, you will find that they include a comprehensive mix of computer models and pure empirical studies. They are not relying solely on computer models.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data.htm


I am sure the IPCC's conclusions will be adjusted, over time, as the models become more and more accurate, anyway. That is, after all, the general trend one finds in virtually all responsible science policy implementations.

and it is these results that governments plan to enact economy killing energy restrictions?
The solutions do not necessarily need to kill the economy. A comprehensive plan can address all of these climate issues, and still work to strengthen the economy for the people.

No one is suggesting that everyone has to substantially change their lifestyle, or move to the poor house, in order to save the planet.

Is that really the core of your concerns?
 
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Oh dear, do you think these models that this report's findings are based on might have been run on a computer, by any chance? Because, if they are, you must reject this report as mere "virtual reality." Or be shown to be inconsistent, if not outright hypocritical. "MS-MRT represents the entire world!" Does it, now? And here I thought that was impossible! :eek:

Would you like to retract that citation now, for being nothing but virtual reality?

Going to check out the others now. I wonder what I'll find?
You will find modeled results. I did not say I supported modeled conclusions but you asked for papers. If you notice some point out the negative effects from proponents models.
 
No run a model run, establish the results and then confirm them in the future. That has not been done.

Establish a model - base it on known past conditions - give it no knowledge of events subsequent - run it and compare to reality.

Equivalent and even preferable.

It's been done.

Though I know it does demolish your ideological house of cards, so you cannot accept it.
 
Where is the evidence that they are not already doing that?
Do you have it? Don't you think this should be confirmed before any of their results used for policy?

From what I understand, calibrating these models, until they reflect real world data, is what eats most of the modeler's time.
Irrelevant.

Actually, if you read their publications and supporting materials, you will find that they include a comprehensive mix of computer models and pure empirical studies. They are not relying solely on computer models.
Empirical evidence alone in no way supports their conclusions.

The solutions do not necessarily need to kill the economy. A comprehensive plan can address all of these climate issues, and still work to strengthen the economy for the people.
It is impossible for government restrictions on energy usage to strengthen the economy. Command and control economics do not work.

No one is suggesting that everyone has to substantially change their lifestyle, or move to the poor house, in order to save the planet.
The planet is in no danger.

George Carlin - 'Saving The Planet' (Adults Only) (Video) (8min)
 
Establish a model - base it on known past conditions - give it no knowledge of events subsequent - run it and compare to reality.
Useless, model tuning can get those results. Of course I do not accept something that is nonsense.
 
You should notice that all of the papers you've given us, seek to improve the models. Not get rid of them, entirely.
Not all of them. Some just point out contradictory evidence. Some give competing modeled results. Like I said though he asked for papers.
 
Do you have it? Don't you think this should be confirmed before any of their results used for policy?
Climate models are peer reviewed, and replicated, etc. Just like any other scientific tool. Do you have evidence of a scandal, where this was not so?

Empirical evidence alone in no way supports their conclusions.
Then please refute any one of the papers on their site.

It is impossible for government restrictions on energy usage to strengthen the economy. Command and control economics do not work.
No one is suggesting "command and control". What is being proposed is a comprehensive set of solutions.

It may have some large projects, but also many small ones.
Sometimes hard limits (enforced via fiat, but informed by science and practicality) may be established, but also soft ones (enforced via "markets"). Etc.

Either that, or the NWO will take over, and rule everyone with an iron fist. I don't know, anymore.

But, either way should be fun.

The planet is in no danger.
So, you now seek to replace climate models with... George Carlin.

Funny.
 
Climate models are peer reviewed, and replicated, etc. Just like any other scientific tool. Do you have evidence of a scandal, where this was not so?
They are not validated. I made no claims of any scandal.

Then please refute any one of the papers on their site.

Independent Summary for Policymakers: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (PDF) (Fraser Institute)
Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers (PDF) (The Fraser Institute)
Climate Change Reconsidered (PDF) (NIPCC)
Inadequacies and criticisms of the IPCC (PDF) (Robert M. Carter, Ph.D. Professor of Environmental and Earth Science)
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Analysis and Summary (PDF) (Science & Public Policy Institute)
Working Group (WG) I’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Working Group (WG) II’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Working Group (WG) III’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Be Sure to Read the Fine Print (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)

No one is suggesting "command and control". What is being proposed is a comprehensive set of solutions.
Cap and Trade is command and control of energy usage thus command and control of the economy.

Either that, or the NWO will take over, and rule everyone with an iron fist. I don't know, anymore.
I do not support NWO conspiracy theories but I do support free markets and world-wide trade.

So, you now seek to replace climate models with... George Carlin. Funny.
No I seek to stop using useless computer climate models and simply deal with empirical data and experiments.
 

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