Ahmadinejad on the way out?

[geni]

Perhaps. Another influence might be the visibility of Mousavi's support : young, urban, on-line, photogenic. Conservative support is older, rural, off-line and easy to miss.

The revolutionary guard made it clear this morning that it would oppose any popular upriseing on Mousavi's part. Effectively that allows the conservatives to rig the vote.

 

[CapelDodger]

I heard on the radio that Mousavi was also claiming victory. Things could get interesting...

We live in interesting times.

Ain't it great? "End of History" my arse .

 

[CapelDodger]

The revolutionary guard made it clear this morning that it would oppose any popular upriseing on Mousavi's part. Effectively that allows the conservatives to rig the vote.

Not really. A popular uprising serves its own purpose : if the Guards respond the protesters can melt away, and by responding the Guards acknowledge a popular uprising. If they actually shoot some people (heaven forbid) that's even worse for them. When a government becomes an occupying power it's on the way out.

Imagine a student in Tehran defiantly blocking a Revolutionary Guard tank, beamed out across Iran and the world. The Chinese government could get away with it (as the Soviets did in Czechoslovakia '68) but the Iran is not China.

Even the Chinese government had to change its ways : it throttled back the dialectic and floored the materialism .

 

[CapelDodger]

Yeah, I predicted that before the vote. The West does this all the time, pining for that next Velvet Revolution. It's not happening in Iran. Yeah, the teenagers are all hipster American wannabes. But then they get old enough to vote and the inherent conservative nature of Iranian culture sets in.

Iran has no such conservative nature. The Shah was propelled into power in '53 because a democratic Iran elected a leftist government. The history of Iran (aka Persia) demonstrates a progressive culture. That's why it has so often been the dominant power in the region between China, India and the Mediterranean.

Shi'ism itself is a progressive version of Islam, which makes this last thirty years a bizarre interlude which cannot last.

 

[CapelDodger]

Good grief, talk about cynical pessimism.

I can do that at length. It's my specialty.

We want the scary guy, the holocaust denier, to stay in charge so that, what? The chances of war will be even higher?

The piece you quoted was actually pre-emptive : "Even if Mousavi wins ..." the threat remains. The threat is the point. Without it where would any military establishment be? Looking for a job is where.

The similarity between the Israeli and Iranian Right's position is striking. The Iranians keep harping on about US and Zionist threats while the Israelis keep harping on about Iran as a threat. Meanwhile both reinforce each other - because they have such in common.

An actual war is the last thing either side wants. That might resolve the issue. The important point is to keep up the tension.

 

[a_unique_person]

Not looking good, the bigger cities are giving the vote for change a good run, where access is good for reporters, but it looks like the more remote areas are strongly conservative.

 

[Oliver]

Ahmadinejad ... REELECTED.

 

[The Nimble Pianist]

Ahmadinejad ... REELECTED.

I'm watching Charlie Rose right now (nothing else on and I'm sick).

One of his guest speakers, Karim Sadjadpour whose authority I'm not certain of, said, but 15 ago, that both Candidates are claiming victory prematurely while not all the votes have yet been counted. It seems it's neck and neck. Mr. Sadjadpour expects something "similar to what happened in Florida in 2000".

I haven't much been paying any attention to this though.


ETA: I just check the link. Are you OK Oliver?

 

[Oliver]

I'm watching Charlie Rose right now (nothing else on and I'm sick).

One of his guest speakers, Karim Sadjadpour whose authority I'm not certain of, said, but 15 ago, that both Candidates are claiming victory prematurely while not all the votes have yet been counted. It seems it's neck and neck. Mr. Sadjadpour expects something "similar to what happened in Florida in 2000".

I haven't much been paying any attention to this though.


ETA: I just check the link. Are you OK Oliver?

Well, I'm okay, even if I would have preferred to see him go. And I saw the controversy of both sides claiming victory later on after seeing the headline at Spiegel:

PRÄSIDENTSCHAFTSWAHL IN IRAN
Ahmadinedschad erringt überwältigenden Sieg*
[*Ahmadineschad achieves overwhelming victory]

 

[Oliver]

From Spiegel's article:

So eindeutig hatte den Wahlausgang niemand erwartet: Amtsinhaber Mahmud Ahmadinedschad steht vor einem klaren Sieg. Auf den Hardliner entfallen nach Auszählung von vier Fünftel der Stimmen knapp 65 Prozent - Reformer Mussawi liegt bei 32 Prozent. Beide riefen sich zum Sieger aus.

Translation:
Nobody could have predicted such a clear election-outcome. President Mahmud Ahmadineschad achieved a distinct victory. After counting 4/5 of the votes, the Hardliner got 65% of all votes so far. Reformist Mussawi got 32 percent. Both claimed victory...

 

[The Nimble Pianist]

From Spiegel's article:




Translation:
Nobody could have predicted such a clear election-outcome. President Mahmud Ahmadineschad achieved a distinct victory. After counting 4/5 of the votes, the Hardliner got 65% of all votes so far. Reformist Mussawi got 32 percent. Both claimed victory...

Hmmm... Weird. The PBS show I was watching stated that both were each claiming a victory with both garnering some 65% of the vote.

Are they counting from opposite ends of the country and working their way inward? Are they counting different votes? I don't get it.

 

[The Nimble Pianist]

Never mind:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-13-voa1.cfm

Essentially the same thing you said Oliver. Damn this flu is really getting to me, effecting my reading and listening skills. I'm off to bed.

ETA: "Iran's state news agency has declared Mr. Ahmadinejad the winner, but Mr. Mousavi also claimed victory late Friday at a news conference in Tehran. He did not give details to support his claim but said there were problems with the voting due to a shortage of ballots in some areas."

Oh dear, I'm envisioning a "Hanging-Chad" fiasco for Iran...

 

[geni]

Not really. A popular uprising serves its own purpose : if the Guards respond the protesters can melt away, and by responding the Guards acknowledge a popular uprising. If they actually shoot some people (heaven forbid) that's even worse for them. When a government becomes an occupying power it's on the way out.

Imagine a student in Tehran defiantly blocking a Revolutionary Guard tank, beamed out across Iran and the world. The Chinese government could get away with it (as the Soviets did in Czechoslovakia '68) but the Iran is not China.

Even the Chinese government had to change its ways : it throttled back the dialectic and floored the materialism .

How's that theory working out in Burma?

 

[marksman]

Shi'a used to be a progressive movement, 1,000 years ago. But like all movements, it has calcified with time.

Iran's urban population is cosmopolitan which makes them ripe for revolution, but Iran is overwhelmingly rural and less educated. They are naturally conservative, and even their children who get educated in cities return to their rural roots when they return home (whic most do).

If the Iranian intelligentsia is going to have a revolution, it won't be a Democratic one, at least not until the rest of Iran has an economic awakening, which is at least 20-30 years in the making. Otherwise, they'll have to have a revolution the way the Mullahs did -- through armed insurrection. And I don't think these Revolutionaries are inclined towards violent revolution.

So I don't envision any major political change in Iran for at least a generation.

 

[Puppycow]

Mousavi won't concede

Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister who waged a heated campaign against Ahmadinejad's bid for reelection, urged his supporters to reject a "governance of lie and dictatorship." He attributed the results to widespread vote fraud and vowed to resist a "dangerous manipulation" of the balloting.
. . .
Iran's Interior Ministry announced that Ahmadinejad had won 62.6 percent of the vote in the election. The ministry said Mousavi received less than 34 percent.

"I'm warning that I won't surrender to this manipulation," Mousavi said in a statement posted on his Web site Saturday. He said the announced results were "shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran's sacred system" and represented "treason to the votes of the people." He warned that the public would not "respect those who take power through fraud."

 

[Oliver]

Mousavi won't concede

I did read about Police cracking down on riots about the election outcome ... Mhmm, can't find the source of that report... :"/

 

[JihadJane]

When was the US public first convinced that Iran was a threat to them?

 

[Marc39]

I'm shocked--shocked--at the election results. I'd also be
shocked--shocked--were the election not completely rigged. A truly sad day for decent Iranians and for those in the region and the world.

 

[Oliver]

When was the US public first convinced that Iran was a threat to them?

Back then shortly after Ahmadinejad suggessted to his fellow students that it might not be a good idea for them to capture every American Citizen within the US-embassy in Tehran. Ironically.

 

[plumjam]

Looks like Ahmadinejad is going to win... with 50% of the vote counted, it's 68% Ahmadinejad, 30% Mousavi.

2% Khomeini