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Wowbagger Reviews a Pro-Parapsychology Book

Ertel’s reply: I don’t expect anyone having interest in me, but I would be
happy seeing others having interest in the phenomena for which I have found
evidence that surprised me. As long as some unusual and currently
unexplainable phenomenon is being reported as existent by only one or a few
scientists, as long as it has not been acknowledged by the majority of
scientists, the work of that minority cannot be regarded as of scientific
value. The attribute “scientific” implies an acknowledgment of the reported
phenomena by the majority of representatives of science, at least of
pertinent specialized disciplines . But the history of science is replete
with examples showing that observations eventuallyof great scientific value
are often preceded by long periods of disregard or even rejection by members
of the science institution whose competence is being challenged without
proper reactions.

I am tempted to accept this as an answer of "NO". However, I am concerned that he mistook my meaning, a little bit. I am hoping he could answer the question again, with this clarification:

The word "scientific", in my question, was meant to imply that it respects the scientific process (and could help us generate new ideas and new knowledge, etc.). This is regardless of what the majority of scientists happens to think of its value. Keeping this in mind, could you answer the question, again:

Do you consider your work, that I commented on, to be of genuine scientific value?
 
Is it really appropriate for skeptics to ask insulting questions like "do you think your work to be of genuine scientific value", particularly after he has explained how he has attempted to take into consideration every bias except one that he was not aware of before?

It also seems out of order to ask expansion of the experiment until the positive results have gone away. The correct demand would be to expand the experiment to a size that would make the results significant.

I think that cooperation like fls and others do will work much better than naked opposition.
 
Linda: ... because of mixing and other issues that are inherent part of this
experiment, each ball in that bag does not have an equal chance of being
drawn, which also means that each number does not have an equal chance of
being drawn.

Ertel's reply: The fact that each ball does not have an equal chance of
being drawn does not imply that each number does not have an equal chance
of being drawn. Supposing one very large bag is used and the balls are
jumbled by shaking the bag as usual. Balls at the bottom of the big bag
would hardly ever move up to the bag's opening while balls near the bag's
opening will tend to remain on the level where they are and hence will be
drawn more frequently. What counts is the randomness of number positions,
not of ball positions.

My statistics show, however, that for the total sample of participants the probability of hits for JDNs does not differ from the probability of hits for not-JDNs. To the extent that they exist, JDN effects are thus negligible.

Furthermore, Linda's effects, if they did exist as an "inherent part of the experiment", would lead to hit surpluses for all or the majority of participants. But only a small percentage of participants (15%) generally obtain significant and replicable surpluses of hit rates.
 
Linda: ... because of mixing and other issues that are inherent part of this
experiment, each ball in that bag does not have an equal chance of being
drawn, which also means that each number does not have an equal chance of
being drawn.

Ertel's reply: The fact that each ball does not have an equal chance of
being drawn does not imply that each number does not have an equal chance
of being drawn. Supposing one very large bag is used and the balls are
jumbled by shaking the bag as usual. Balls at the bottom of the big bag
would hardly ever move up to the bag's opening while balls near the bag's
opening will tend to remain on the level where they are and hence will be
drawn more frequently. What counts is the randomness of number positions,
not of ball positions.

It is not for me to come up with ways in which ball positions are not random and for you to explain them away. It is up to you to demonstrate what we can expect in the absence of psi in order to look for its presence. You have guessed that drawing balls out of a bag serves as a random-number-generator and formed expectations based on the results you would get from a theoretical random-number-generator. But you haven't given us any reason to suppose that your guess is correct, especially when we already know that that this can be a non-random method (the 1970 US draft lottery as an example). Scientific experimentation is not about assuming that your guesses are correct, but about demonstrating that they are correct (or at least not incorrect).

My statistics show, however, that for the total sample of participants the probability of hits for JDNs does not differ from the probability of hits for not-JDNs. To the extent that they exist, JDN effects are thus negligible.

Looking at the data after the fact is inadequate. This is a lesson we have learned with medical research. We thought we accounted for all the possible sources of bias when looking at the 50% reduction in heart disease in women taking hormone replacement therapy, so that we could confidently say, "to the extent that differences in x, y, and z exist, the effects of x, y, and z are negligible". And yet, when subject to proper experimental design, it turned out the effects of x, y, and z were substantial - so substantial they accounted for all of the apparent effect of HRT and more.

Medical research progresses because we made the effort to discover how to get rid of or control a priori those effects which bias the results. As long as psi research fails to do this, I don't see how it can progress.

Furthermore, Linda's effects, if they did exist as an "inherent part of the experiment", would lead to hit surpluses for all or the majority of participants. But only a small percentage of participants (15%) generally obtain significant and replicable surpluses of hit rates.

Now, this depends upon which set of experiments you are talking about. If you are talking about those which started this discussion - the 5x5 matrices - then this is incorrect. You expect variation in how well participants mix the balls and in how they draw balls. And you would expect those who don't do a very good job of mixing and who have a pattern to their ball drawing to persist in those characteristics. So you wouldn't necessarily expect the majority to demonstrate non-random ball-drawing (this should vary a lot depending upon the instructions given), but of those who do demonstrate non-randomness, it should be a fairly persistent effect unless they are instructed otherwise.

If you are talking about guessing the number and then drawing the ball, it is notable that the hit rates aren't replicable, especially once the recording and drawing is monitored. I am still going over the first paper you referenced which covers the issues of replication (Psi feats achieved at home: do they disappear under control?) and the earlier paper (The ball drawing test: Psi from the untrodden underground) in regards to the statistical analysis.

Linda
 
Is it really appropriate for skeptics to ask insulting questions like "do you think your work to be of genuine scientific value",
I asked that question, because I felt it was directly relevant to this thread's topic.

I apologize if it sounded insulting or rude. But, I think it could be the quickest way to settle some issues.

I was trying to give Ertel an easy out. If he agreed his experiments are not considered to be genuinely scientific, then all the nit-picking on them, in this thread, becomes instantly irrelevant. They would not be considered evidence that it is time for "the paranormal to come in from the cold". And, we could move on to some other examples.

If he believes his experiments should constitute genuine scientific research, then many of us are going to be tempted to pick on them, further. Some (like fls) will probably focus on specific design aspects. I would rather skip all that, and question the validity and/or value of his hypothesis.

This thread is for discussing if psi should be taken seriously by mainstream science; not merely if Ertel's experiments are scientific. But, it is still important to ask, so we know if his experiments should remain in the picture, or not.

It also seems out of order to ask expansion of the experiment until the positive results have gone away. The correct demand would be to expand the experiment to a size that would make the results significant.
If the results do NOT persist, with replacement of parts: jars instead of bags, marbles instead of ping-pong balls, etc; then he has only demonstrated unintended sources of bias in his original design, and not psi.

It would make sense to expand the size of the experiment, to see of the results persist. But, so far, it does not look good. From what I understand: More trials seems to result in less spectacular results. So, he would also need to think of some hypothetical mechanism for boosting the signal.
 
Ertel’s reply: On the following youtube video that I made roughly a decade ago an Indian psi-gifted boy has been tested by using the standard ball-drawing procedure.

http://video.google.de/videosearch?...anormal&hl=de&emb=0&client=firefox-a&start=30

I tested this boy again three years ago – now a young man, an expert in informatics –

and he still obtained a statistically significant surplus of hits.

I'm sorry, but on some of those draws, the balls are clearly going to be in his line of sight as he puts his hand in to draw them out. You can't seriously be asking us to consider this remarkable?

Linda
 
If he believes his experiments should constitute genuine scientific research, then many of us are going to be tempted to pick on them, further. Some (like fls) will probably focus on specific design aspects. I would rather skip all that, and question the validity and/or value of his hypothesis.

I will take my discussion private so as not to derail your intentions.

Linda
 
I will take my discussion private so as not to derail your intentions.
Well, some discussion about the design might be relevant:

Even if his hypothesis was brilliant, I don't think mainstream scientists would appreciate experiments where the balls in the bag would be in the test participant's line of site!

(But, all this means nothing, if his intentions were not to impress mainstream scientists, anyway.)
 
I am now just picking on some portions of responses I did not bother to blather on about, before:

This line, perhaps could use some clarification:
* My intention to try to overcome mental barriers of disbelievers by additional experimental evidence.
Which disbelievers are you trying to convince? It sounds like you are implying mainstream scientists.

But, wouldn't a brilliant, new hypothesis do a lot more to "overcome their mental barriers"?

Think about obtaining quality of evidence, instead of quantity.


* General problems of publishing such findings in journals whose primary goal is to keep track of topics that can safely be located within the current Gates of Science;
And, this sounds suspiciously conspiratorial. If scientists were so averse to changing the course of their own fields, then how come these were all rapidly accepted:
* plate-tectonics
* General and Special Relativity
* The Big Bang Theory
* The cladistic system of classifying species
Etc.

If mainstream scientists only acknowledged observations that already have pertinent explanations, by providing plausible mechanisms etc., then science would stagnate.
I just wanted to add that this is wrong. All the examples I just gave, above (plate-tectonics, etc.), were all based on observations that already had pertinent explanations. But, someone else came along and provided better ones.

Scientists testing parapsychological issues share this penchant. They dislike unreliable results. A certain proportion of scientific observations are unreliable, even though they are real. The only straightforward question is: Why may observations be unreliable? Why are weather predictions unreliable? Why are predictions of comet crashes on earth unreliable? Why are predictions of creative discoveries in science unreliable? Why are evolutionary changes unpredictable? All this unpredictable stuff occurs. Occurrences may be factual even though they have not been predicted and even though they are not predictable in principle despite maximum effort of the entire scientific community.
Sounds good to me! This is probably one of the most insightful things written, in this thread!

Have you started working on any of these "whys", in your studies?

If you know x conditions giving rise to a phenomenon P which requires x+y conditions to become fully explained, you will not be able to make accurate predictions of P if you are only aware of those x conditions and unaware of those y conditions. If your brain is involved (x condition), among others, when P occurs, you cannot force P to occur by mere brain activity.
Have you started working on any of these "y's", also?

I would test an unselected sample of 3000 people. The additional costs for experimenters and data analyzers might raise the required amount to $12,000. Only then would I continue my testing, if possible under skeptical supervision (even under JREF supervision), with 4-5 psi-gifted participants.
So, you would just do more of the same.

That does not sound like a promising way to find "why" or "y", to me. You might be much more productive, if you had some form of those to work with.

Thus, my overall result may be considered as merely marginally significant. I would not dare conclusions about form-generating psi effects in my own case. But I myself am a poor psi effect producer. Individual differences are large and reliable.
If someone wrote a book, in which the author describes your experiments as very promising to the future of psi, would you be prone to remind him of this?

The somewhat hidden meaning of these questions seems to
imply that parapsychologists are not interested in explanations. This is not
so.
Oh, I have no doubt parapsychologists are interested in explanations. My point is three-fold:
1. They do not have any, yet
2. They are not even trying very hard to obtain any
3. Mainstream science already has some, though they are very mundane

Archeologists are still faced with eight scripts which cannot yet be
deciphered. But they are extremely interested in grasping the written
information.
And, they are actively developing and testing hypothesis to do so!

There is no doubt the scripts are there. No one needs to propose a hypothesis that "there exists unexplained scripts". What they are proposing are ideas to help decipher them.

Archeologists are several steps ahead of parapsychologists, in that regard, even if they do not have all the answers, yet.

None of these tests showed alternative effect indications.
None of the tests were testing for any effect, in particular. That is the problem. That is why the results are so ambiguous. And, that is why all the other explanations I offered are still not ruled out.
 
Passing this along:

===================

Ertel: Thus, my overall result may be considered as merely marginally significant. I would not dare conclusions about form-generating psi effects in my own case. But I myself am a poor psi effect producer. Individual differences are large and reliable.

Wowbagger: If someone wrote a book, in which the author describes your experiments as very promising to the future of psi, would you be prone to remind him of this?

Broderick: Wowbagger is being either mischievous or obtuse. Prof. Ertel is here quite clearly referring to his own personal test results (he isn't "psi-gifted"), *not* to the results of his pre-screened participants, which were statistically significant in both their deviations from mean chance expectation and also the strikingly non-random patterns they produced.

At least fls recognizes that the patterns are non-random. Her attempted explanations for why they are so remain inadequate, however, unless cheating (peeking inside the bag, etc) or experimental incompetence (poor mixing) are responsible. The fine grain detail and internal controls of Ertel's results appear inconsistent with all the explanations I've seen so far other than cheating. Alas, this seems to be the accusation of final recourse from all critics of parapsychology.
 
The fine grain detail and internal controls of Ertel's results appear inconsistent with all the explanations I've seen so far other than cheating. Alas, this seems to be the accusation of final recourse from all critics of parapsychology.
Broderick: I am NOT accusing anyone of cheating. I am merely pointing out that a lot of things including, but not limited to, cheating can't be ruled out, yet.

For Ertel's studies to be considered legit science, he would need a testable hypothesis that could strengthen the signal.

Without that, you can not rule out any of the following, which would NOT fall under cheating:
* Bad experimental design (unintended bias on certain balls, for example)
* Paredolia or Confirmation bias
* Random chance (Hey, it could happen...)
* Erroneous recording
* An idiometer type of effect
* Statistical clustering effect (this is important, because if the results get "more even" over time, instead of more striking, this could be what you were really seeing.)

In addition, these would also not be ruled out, and would count as cheating:
* Deliberate cheating, on the part of the experimenter
* A "Sokal"-like hoax (experiment never took place, but written up to fool gullible people)
* A Well-Organized Conspiracy, on the part of the participants, to trick the experimenters

All he has is a statement that "there exists and anomalous ability...", which is a joke. A real hypothesis should help us figure out what the ability actually is, not merely that it exists. You can't tell if it really exists, without that.

That is what it takes to convince mainstream science that it is time for the paranormal to join their club. Your book do not offer any such things.
 
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