I think the articles and videos all say that the tax would be equal to 1$ per joint and that's before mark up from distributors so I assume weed would get pretty pricey.
Disclosure: I am totally opposed to drug prohibition.
I fear the politicians planning a $1 per joint tax have a gross misunderstanding of both weed and black markets.
First: weed is, well, a weed. Its not hard to grow. In fact, it can be found in all 50 states, either indoors or outdoors, despite nearly 100 years of prohibition. See also: dandelions, still thriving, despite decades of mass genocide via pesticides. Toss a handful of seeds into some dirt in Florida and you will have yourself a 3-foot tall plant in a few months, without grow lights or fertilizer or any proactive effort from you.
Second: black markets exist to fill gaps in supply and demand. Outlaw guns, guns are bought on the black market. Outlaw abortions, back-alley clinics appear. Outlaw drugs, and people grow and/or import them. And if the taxes on legal drugs make cost prohibitive compared to black market alternatives, the black markets will continue to thrive.
Assuming the goal is to decrease the use of weed, I would use a 3-prong approach.
1. Immediately release all non-violent drug offenders from jail, and use the money saved on corrections to bribe everyone needed to make step 2 and 3 happen
2. Completely legalize weed, and tax it on par with cigarettes (i.e. a tax in excess of 100% is not beyond reason, but $1 per smoke is just silly)
3. Offer land, equipment, cheap loans to aspiring pot farmers. Tell them to grow as much as they can. I would go so far as to subsidize it (i.e. corn) for 2 or 3 years.
How does this result in DECREASED use of weed?
Simple. Within a year, the weed market will be so flooded with product that the price will crash. Organized crime will lose interest quickly, and divert their resources to other, more lucrative trades.
At this point, usage will spike. Many will use weed for the first time out of curiosity. Most will be unimpressed. However, within a few years, when dirt-cheap weed can be found at every farmer's market in America (I mean out in the open, not just out of trunks as-is the custom now), the entire weed counter-culture will be all but obliterated. No longer will weed be "cool" or "edgy" or "hip" - its a mellow buzz for aging boomers and those of us too old to deal with hang-overs. Once the "cool" is gone, usage will plummet like a stone.
As with cigarettes, there will remain a group of children who continue to smoke, despite the health consequences. However, at the very least, a child of the future will need to convince the clerk at the local 7-11 that they are legal age, whereas dealers in the modern paradigm don't card at all. This is to say: although some use will remain despite all efforts to the contrary, I maintain the belief that legal distribution is the only realistic way to regulate consumption of mind-altering substances (i.e. prescription drugs, booze, cigs, whatever your poison might be).
The TL;DR version: don't just legalize pot, make it as plentiful as corn. I cannot stress the psychological component of "cool" or "counter-culture" enough. I sincerely believe that if corn were outlawed, it would be distributed illegally, and a die-hard group of "corn-heads" would propagate an entire sub culture around it, despite the fact that corn is a nice, but wholly unimpressive plant (just like pot).
When I was a kid, I never considered Mom's Old Milwalkee anything cool or sexy or interesting. Grandpa's scotch was equally gross. But I was always incredibly curious about Uncle Dave, who was always very happy, and always smelled funny, and would always "step outside" at family gatherings and return happier than ever. And the fact that no one could or would answer my questions directly only increased my curiosity. Weed was something "hip" and "cool", only for those "in the know". It was this, not a desire to get high, that led me to weed when I was a kid. And, for me, like most, the "sexy" phase ended very quickly.
