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Poll Vault

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David Wong said:
This is fascinating. For the first time, all three of Gallup's voter models have converged. Likely, Likely Expanded, and Registered all show the identical 10/11 point lead for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

This after they've been wildly divergent over the course of the weeks they've used them. Is that because they're constantly adjusting their likely model as the election gets closer?
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Apparently so, here's TPM talking about that very thing:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/241672.php

Interesting...
 
David Wong said:
Gallup says they show 27% have voted already. That's amazing, when they were quoting those estimates earlier I didn't buy it for a second. Then I went to vote early in Illinois and saw the line.

They say 2/3 of Colorado has voted already.
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Georgia:
-1,994,990 ballots cast (60.42% of the total 2004 vote)
-White 60.21%
-Black 35.09%
-Other 4.70%
 
Zogby's national tracking poll has Obama increasing his lead to 6 today (50%-44%) ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3134134020081102

"There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here," pollster John Zogby said.

He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters -- women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.

National opinion polls all give the lead to Obama, who also appears to be outflanking McCain in a number of the battleground states that will end up deciding the election.
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The poll showed Obama well ahead among voters who had already participated in early balloting, leading McCain in this group by 56 percent to 39 percent.

Women and independent voters, groups that are expected to play an important role in this election, continue to back Obama although his margin is not as wide as it was late last month.

Obama enjoys an 8-point lead among women voters and a 10-point lead among independents.

McCain continues to hold a strong lead among white voters, 54 percent to 40 percent, and among voters who identify themselves as members of the "investor class," who support him by a 9-point margin.

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, wins 93 percent support among black voters and 65 percent among Hispanics.
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ABC News/Wash Post Tracking: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 5 (48%-43%)

CBS News: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)


As far as the Bush State polls ...

Code: 
Colorado	Denver Post/Mason-Dixon	Obama 49, McCain 44	Obama +5

Florida		ARG			Obama 50, McCain 46	Obama +4
Florida		Mason-Dixon		Obama 49, McCain 47	Obama +2

Indiana		ARG			McCain 48, Obama 48	Tie

Nevada		LVRJ/Mason-Dixon	Obama 47, McCain 43	Obama +4

Ohio		Columbus Dispatch*	Obama 52, McCain 46	Obama +6

Virginia	Mason-Dixon		Obama 47, McCain 44	Obama +3
 
Rasmussen still has Obama's lead at 5 (51%-46%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%
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Now, however, Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53% (see trends). Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliateds say the same about Obama.

However, there is a definite enthusiasm gap when it comes to the candidates. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion. Only 55% of Republicans are that upbeat about McCain.

Obama leads by ten among women but trails by two among men.

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 for 46% of voters. Just 20% see national security as the top priority. The importance of the economic issue is highlighted by the fact that McCain was leading by three points in mid-September just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made public the depth of Wall Street’s problems. Shortly after that, Obama moved ahead and has enjoyed a stable lead that has lasted into the final weekend of Election 2008.

Among those who consider the economy most important, Obama leads 66% to 31%.

Among those who say that national security issues are the top priority, McCain leads 75% to 22%.

Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160.
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Well... 60 hours or so until the polls close.

At this point, either Obama wins, or all of the polls are fundamentally flawed. Including the polls that are asking early voters who they voted for.
 
dudalb said:
I knew that, but figured that to the average reader,
"Katana" would be a more recognizable term for a Japanese Sword then "Wakizashi."

You are talking to somebody who is a HUGE fan of Samaurai movies, btw.
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OK I am gonna correct you and Wangler both and say it was actually the tanto that was used.
 
Ausmerican said:
OK I am gonna correct you and Wangler both and say it was actually the tanto that was used.
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A real man uses this to disembowel himself:




spork-700806.jpg
 
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