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Poll Vault

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I am beginning to wonder if anyone is in charge at CNN. In the news broadcast tonight, they seem to be saying that when you get into the state by state analysis ,the tightening in the nationwide Poll of Polls is pretty meaningless. Maybe a disconnect between the website and the actual news operatation.
 
Good point, and it may keep away some more elderly conservative voters. Regardless, I'll be shocked if Obama loses, there are just too many things going his way.


If Obama loses, a great many political anylysists, pollsters, and talking heads should do the honorable thing, draw their Katanas and commit seppuku.
 
I am beginning to wonder if anyone is in charge at CNN. In the news broadcast tonight, they seem to be saying that when you get into the state by state analysis ,the tightening in the nationwide Poll of Polls is pretty meaningless. Maybe a disconnect between the website and the actual news operatation.

If red states get redder....
 
If red states get redder....

A reasonable point. If we are seeing a further polarization of the electorate as the election nears, rather than a coming together in the middle, then it is perfectly possible for the red states to become redder, shifting the overall popular vote towards McCain, without flipping any of the battleground states in his direction.
 
Zogby has Obama's lead still at 7 (50%-43%) ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081031

Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, virtually unchanged from Thursday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"Essentially there is no difference in today's tracking," pollster John Zogby said. "Obama is holding firm and McCain is not making any gains."

It was the second consecutive day Obama's support has hit the 50 percent mark, and the eighth day out of the last 11. McCain's support has not surpassed 45 percent in more than three weeks of polling.

The Illinois senator held steady among several crucial blocs of swing voters in the November 4 election, leading by 15 points among independents, 9 points among women, 5 points among men and 9 points among Catholics.

Obama led in every age group and among every income group except voters who make more than $100,000. McCain, a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war, trails among voters with a member of the military in their family.

Mccain, an Arizona senator, also was winning only 26 percent of Hispanics, a fast-growing group that gave Republican President George W. Bush more than 40 percent of their vote in 2004.

"If you are John McCain you want to see something start changing in this race, and right now it is not," Zogby said.
 
A few new national polls updated from yesterday ...

National tracking polls:

ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
IBD/TIPP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
GWU/Battleground: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
Diageo/Hotline: Obama by 6 (48%-42%)

The national tracking polls have been holding steady the past few days.


Other national polls:

CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 11 (52%-41%)
CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 13 (52%-39%-Nader 2%-Barr 1%)
 
The Bush State polls as of now ...

Colorado (9)
October 30 - Marist: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 28 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

Florida (27)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Tied (47%-47%)
October 27 - Suffolk: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)

Indiana (11)
October 30 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 30 - Research 2000: Tied (47%-47%)

October 30 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
October 28 - Research 2000: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 28 - Howey-Gauge: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 6 (50%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 31 - Politico/InAdv: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 27 - SurveyUSA: Tied (48%-48%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Montana (3)
October 30 - Rasmussen: McCain by 4 (50%-46%)
October 28 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 4 (48%-44%)

Nevada (5)
October 30 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 12 (52%-40%)
October 28 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 28 - Suffolk: Obama by 10 (50%-40%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 31 - Politico/InAdv: Tied (48%-48%)
October 30 - Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 30 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 1 (47%-46%)

October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

North Dakota (3)

Ohio (20)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 29 - Marist: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 28 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)

Virginia (13)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 28 - Roanoke College: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 27 - Washington Post: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 27 - VCU: Obama by 11 (51%-40%)

West Virginia (5)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 10 (50%-40%)


Obama still has a lock on the Kerry States giving him 252 electoral votes to start with. He has a lock on 2 Bush States (Iowa-7 and New Mexico-5) giving him a total of 264 votes. Obama only needs 5 more electoral votes from any of the Bush States listed above to reach 269 (an electoral tie which gives Obama the win).
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 4 today (51%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.

However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground. This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

It is impossible to overstate the importance of Obama's tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected. Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins (see crosstabs). Obama has made remarkable progress on this issue in recent months. In August, only 9% believed Obama would cut their taxes
 
I am beginning to wonder if anyone is in charge at CNN. In the news broadcast tonight, they seem to be saying that when you get into the state by state analysis ,the tightening in the nationwide Poll of Polls is pretty meaningless. Maybe a disconnect between the website and the actual news operatation.

Yeah, they kinda seem bonkers over at the web site. Yesterday's headline was something like: race definitely tightening. Today's headline: despite yesterday's headline, race not tightening at all...

:boggled:
 
Gallup's latest ...

Traditional Likely Voters: Obama by 8 (51%-43%) +3 from yesterday
Expanded Likely Voters: Obama by 9 (52%-43%) +2 from yesterday

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Widens-Some-All-Bases.aspx

The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Since Tuesday, McCain's support among traditional likely voters has dropped by four points (from 47% to 43%), Obama's has risen by two points (from 49% to 51%), and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 4% to 6%.

Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama's current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters -- 52% to 41% -- is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday's report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago.


Other national tracking polls out since this morning ...

GWU/Battleground: Obama by 4 (49%-45%) +1 from yesterday
Diageo/Hotline: Obama by 7 (48%-41%) +1 from yesterday


Other national polls out today ...

Marist: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)


Bush State polls ...

Indiana (11)
October 31 - SurveyUSA: Tied (47%-47%)
October 30 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 30 - Research 2000: Tied (47%-47%)
October 30 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
October 28 - Research 2000: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 28 - Howey-Gauge: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 6 (50%-44%)

West Virginia (5)
October 31 - PPP (D): McCain by 13 (55%-42%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 10 (50%-40%)

Looks like West Virginia is no longer in play.
 
Another Bush State poll ...

Colorado (9)
October 31 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 30 - Marist: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 28 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
 
Give me the humiliation of McCain losing Arizona over winning West-Virginia any day.
 
Give me the humiliation of McCain losing Arizona over winning West-Virginia any day.

Same here...

In order.

An Obama landslide with McCain lossing Arizona

An Obama landslide

An Obama vitory with McCain losing Arizona

An Obama victory with a comfortable margin

An Obama victory with any margin

A black hole from the Large Hadron Collider sucking up the Earth in less than 2 seconds

Any combination of McCain Palin victory....

:D

LOL (yes, for the MaGZ / Cicero crowd that was just a joke! Well at least the back hole part anyway)
 
Give me the humiliation of McCain losing Arizona over winning West-Virginia any day.

That reminds me of Gore losing his home state in 2000. Forget Florida, if he had won Tennessee, he would have been President.
 
The latest from the Vote-Share at the Iowa Electronic Market...

Obama 54.3
McCain 47.2

So this is a difference of about 7 points in the popular vote favoring Obama. I think McCain and the GOP are going to be drinking quite heavily for many days post-election, and I'm not talking about because they're celebrating.

The question seems more to be at this point not whether or not Obama is going to win, but what will be his margin of victory? That is assuming, of course, the Dems don't get lazy (which they show no sign of doing).
 
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