Obama 60% / McCain's 39% - early voting results

[Oliver]

Of course a lot could happen in the last 6 days, but it does look
pretty good for Obama - at least concerning early votes...

6 Days Out: Obama Has Big Lead In Early Voting

Among those who said they had voted early or sent in an absentee ballot in the Washington Post-ABC News poll this week, Obama leads by a whopping 60% to McCain's 39%.
Early Vote Estimate At 15 Million Nationwide
Poll: New Voters Boon For Obama, If They Vote
Poll: Obama Up Slightly In Early FL Voting
Pew Poll Shows Obama Lead In Early Voting

 

[BenBurch]

Which provides great incentive for "accidents" which lose those early votes...

 

[T.A.M.]

Yes and another poll out, as I saw on MSNBC, or early voting, had it at:

Obama=48%
McCain=47%

so don't get too excited yet. Get all of your friends out to vote for Obama.

TAM

 

[DavidJames]

A quick look at the links shows these are not "voting results", but polling results. Am I missing something.

While early voting is very common, I don't believe votes are counted and results released, are they?

 

[T.A.M.]

I think they are exit polls, or the equivalent.

TAM

 

[Denver]

It could be that conservatives, or an older population supporting McCain, will as a group vote in a more traditional manner, closer to Nov 4. And that newer voters, or younger, are taking advantage of earlier voting. So while it's an interesting statistic, it may not be representative of the finals.

 

[David Wong]

It could be that conservatives, or an older population supporting McCain, will as a group vote in a more traditional manner, closer to Nov 4. And that newer voters, or younger, are taking advantage of earlier voting. So while it's an interesting statistic, it may not be representative of the finals.

Rasmussen has the lead among early voters at 9 points, 54-45.

So even on a question of fact, you can't trust people to tell a pollster the truth. We're seeing 15-point swings in these results when the simple question is asked, "If you voted already, who did you vote for?"

 

[Sasha]

Rasmussen has the lead among early voters at 9 points, 54-45.

So even on a question of fact, you can't trust people to tell a pollster the truth. We're seeing 15-point swings in these results when the simple question is asked, "If you voted already, who did you vote for?"

And it says nothing about the people who say, "None of your business," which would be my reply.

 

[Snide]

Anyone else here not a fan of releasing exit poll information before all of the voting is done?

 

[tomwaits]

National polls are completely pointless anyway, since that is not how presidential elections work. This website seems far more accurate, and it has Obama winning in a landslide.

 

[DavidJames]

And it says nothing about the people who say, "None of your business," which would be my reply.

Exactly- So we have:

The Bradley effect
The privacy effect
The plain old liars
Demographic implications of those that vote early which may vary between showing up at a polling place versus mail-in ballot (and possibly absentee ballet)

To net it out to me, I'm not paying much attention to these things

 

[moon1969]

Praise the lord I guess God doesn"t support Palin and the republicans anymore.

 

[Malerin]

Rasmussen has the lead among early voters at 9 points, 54-45.

So even on a question of fact, you can't trust people to tell a pollster the truth. We're seeing 15-point swings in these results when the simple question is asked, "If you voted already, who did you vote for?"

A national poll is going to be heavily influenced by early voting in populous states that arnen't even in play. Better to look at the early voting in the battleground states. I don't think Republicans have the edge in any battleground states and I know they are behind in several.

 

[Tricky]

Anyone else here not a fan of releasing exit poll information before all of the voting is done?

Damn first amendment. What can you do?

 

[dudalb]

Anyone else here not a fan of releasing exit poll information before all of the voting is done?

I think exit polls should be banned, period.

 

[DavidJames]

I think it's going to be a lot closer then what I'm reading here. I would not be surprised by a 2000 reprise. I think those that have discarded the Bradley effect are mistaken.

 

[dudalb]

Damn first amendment. What can you do?

I think the damage done to the political process by exit polls is grave enough to justify banning exit polls. The first admendment is not an absolute.

 

[dudalb]

I think it's going to be a lot closer then what I'm reading here. I would not be surprised by a 2000 reprise. I think those that have discarded the Bradley effect are mistaken.

WHy are you so intent in thinking the worst about your countrymen?
Or are you sticking to your "McCain Will Win" statement early on and do not want to back down?

 

[Trantor]

Yes and another poll out, as I saw on MSNBC, or early voting, had it at:

Obama=48%
McCain=47%

so don't get too excited yet. Get all of your friends out to vote for Obama.

TAM

I saw that on MSNBC. It surprised me that McCain was doing so well, but after thinking about it, I think this is good news for Obama. I voted early last week. While there, I saw mostly older people voting. Most of the older people here vote Republican and many of them always vote absentee; my parents are a good example. In most elections in Florida, the Republicans usually get the early votes. If Obama can hold his own in the early votes, I think that his middled aged and younger supporters will be the deciding factor on November 4th. I would love to see Florida decide this election for Obama in the early evening hours on election day. If Obama wins Florida, it's over for McCain.

 

[DavidJames]

WHy are you so intent in thinking the worst about your countrymen?

I'm cynical. Maybe I spend to much time on forums like this. Maybe I see people telling me that racism is behind us but see elements of it every day. Maybe it's the friends and acquaintances I have who use the sound bites of from talk radio to support McCain, and define Obama. Maybe it's seeing the results of the last two presidential elections where people elected a president who will eventually go down (IMO) as one of the worst of all time. Not to mention re-electing him by a greater margin then he won initially. Yeah, I'm cynical. If I'm wrong, and I hope I am, this election will put a huge dent in that cynicism.

Or are you sticking to your "McCain Will Win" statement early on and do not want to back down?

What I meant by my 2000 reprise was more along the lines of I expect the winner will not be determined until long after the polls close, not necessarily who would win. Honestly, I don't know anymore who will win, so yeah, to some extent I have backed down.