Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Doesn't make sense to me. Didn't Bush win without Pennsylvania?
Which Bush state do they think they have a worse chance in than Pennsylvania?
Virginia?

Bush lost Pennsylvania both times, but it was very close in 2004. Pennsylvania is polling big time for Obama right now. It has been dramatically trending away from McCain for months. It would take something huge to flip it to McCain now. He stands a better chance of flipping New Hampshire and Maine, but both of those have polled strongly for Obama lately.

If McCain keeps Florida and Ohio, but loses Colorado (assuming NM and Iowa belong to Obama), Obama is the next President.

McCain has no real options. Obama has a lock on the Kerry States, Iowa and NM. McCain can't lose anymore vulnerable Bush States other than Iowa and NM (actually, he can lose ND as well and be okay). If he loses anything else, he's toast.

 

[Pookster]

Obama +10 in NBC/WSJ poll. Palin is a huge albatross now.

I agree. It significantly hurt McCain regarding judgment. It took the biggest advantage he had over Obama (experience) off the table. Palin's performance has been very disappointing as well. She might have helped the campaign with independents and women if she had at least performed with some acceptable level of Presidential competence. She's been a huge joke though. Her going on SNL this past Saturday was a huge mistake as well, IMO.

While I still believe the economy is the issue Obama is winning on, Palin was a significant self-inflicted wound for McCain. The polls are showing it too, especially the NBC poll out yesterday ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/

Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

Ouch.

 

[Pookster]

Here are the latest Bush State polls ...

Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
October 21 - InsiderAdvantage: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Missouri (11)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 20 - Suffolk: McCain by 1 (45%-44%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Nevada (5)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (55%-42%)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 21 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 21 - SurveyUSA: Tied (47%-47%)
October 21 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (51%-48%)
October 20 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

North Dakota (3)
October 17 - Research 2000: Tied (45%-45%)
October 16 - North Dakota UTU (D): Obama by 3 (44%-41%)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)

Ohio (20)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 20 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 20 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

West Virginia (5)
October 21 - Rasmussen: McCain by 9 (52%-43%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 6 (47%-41%)
October 19 - PPP (D): McCain by 8 (50%-42%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)


I think West Virginia is probably safe for McCain now. The numbers are too high for Obama to make up, IMO.

 

[Pookster]

The latest tracking polls ... and Zogby's new one for today ...

October 22 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 10 (52%-42%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 21
October 21 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 6 (46.9%-40.9%) -- Obama lead +0.7 from Oct 20
October 21 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (53%-44%) -- Unchanged from Oct 20
October 21 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 7 (51%-44%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 20
October 21 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 10 (52%-42%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 20
October 21 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 6 (47%-41%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 20
October 21 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 1 (48%-47%) -- Obama lead -3 from Oct 20
October 21 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Unchanged from Oct 20


Here are the latest "other" national polls ...

October 21 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 21 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 21 - Pew Research: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
October 20 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 20 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 5 (49%-44%-Nader 3%-Barr 2%)
October 20 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 6 (49%-43%-Nader 3%-Barr 2%)
October 20 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - Pew Research: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 14 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 14 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 12 (51%-39%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
October 14 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 8 (47%-39-Nader 3%-Barr 1%%)
October 13 - USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 5.5 (51%-45.5%)
October 13 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 13 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 10 - Newsweek: Obama by 11 (52%-41%)
October 10 - FOX News: Obama by 7 (46%-39%)
October 8 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 7 (47%-40%)
October 6 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 6 - CBS News: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 6 - CNN: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)

 

[gdnp]

I think it should not be ignored that Palin is also a detriment in what she can't do. After the 2nd debate Biden went on CNN to provide spin, and performed admirably. McCain can't afford to use Palin in anything but scripted speeches and occasional softball interviews. Even these have virtually dried up. She should be out on the late night and Sunday talk shows regularly driving the message home, but she can't be used in this role.

It's like having your #3 hitter batting below the Mendoza line (less than .100). She's supposed to be setting the table for McCain, and at this point the best you can hope is that she doesn't hit into a double play. A tremendous handicap, like playing the game a man down.

 

[Pookster]

Latest from Rasmussen ...

October 22 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 6 (51%-45%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 21

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points

 

[Pookster]

More from Zogby's latest ...

October 22 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 10 (52%-42%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 21

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49J0LF20081022

"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby. "McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment."

The 10-point lead was the first time Obama's advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, reached double-digits in the poll. Obama's lead had floated between 2 and 6 points in the more than two weeks of polling until stretching to 8 points on Tuesday.

Obama made gains with two key swing voting blocs. His advantage with independent voters grew to a whopping 27 points from 15 points and his edge with women voters grew to 16 points from 13.

McCain narrowly trails Obama by 2 percentage points among men and saw his lead among whites drop to 6 points from 9 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.

And more importantly ...

Three percent of voters remain undecided.

 

[Pookster]

Updates to a few national tracking polls ...

October 22 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 5 (47%-42%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 21
October 22 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 2 (49%-47%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 21


Concerning Battleground's poll, it is a five day rolling poll that excludes the weekend. Today's poll includes Wednesday-Friday of last week, and Monday & Tuesday of this week. McCain had some of his better polling days last week. Look for this poll to dramatically swing toward Obama over the coming days as last week's results fall out of the poll.

 

[aerosolben]

It's like having your #3 hitter batting below the Mendoza line (less than .100).

It's .200.

 

[Pookster]

Latest from Gallup ...

October 22 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 21
October 22 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 8 (52%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 21

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111316/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Likely-Voter-Lead-Points.aspx

The likely voter estimates for each candidate have generally been stable since Gallup began measuring them about two weeks ago. Obama's support has ranged between 49% and 51% using the traditional model and a slightly higher 50% to 53% using the expanded model. McCain's support has ranged between 44% and 47% in the traditional model and 42% to 46% in the expanded model.

Among all Americans who are registered to vote, Obama currently holds a 51% to 42% lead, which matches his average for October to date.

 

[Pookster]

Another tracking updated poll ...

October 22 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 3.7 (45.7%-42.0%) -- Obama lead -2.3 from Oct 21


More new national polls ...

October 22 - FOX News: Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
October 22 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
October 22 - F&M/Hearst-Argyle: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 21 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
October 21 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)
October 21 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 21 - Pew Research: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
October 20 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 20 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 5 (49%-44%-Nader 3%-Barr 2%)
October 20 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 6 (49%-43%-Nader 3%-Barr 2%)
October 20 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - Pew Research: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 14 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 14 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 12 (51%-39%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
October 14 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 8 (47%-39-Nader 3%-Barr 1%%)
October 13 - USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 5.5 (51%-45.5%)
October 13 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 13 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 10 - Newsweek: Obama by 11 (52%-41%)
October 10 - FOX News: Obama by 7 (46%-39%)
October 8 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 7 (47%-40%)
October 6 - NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 6 - CBS News: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 6 - CNN: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)

 

[BenBurch]

Hard to believe these pollsters are polling the same populations.

 

[Pookster]

Hard to believe these pollsters are polling the same populations.

Much of the difference is in how different polling organizations define "likely voter". Gallup shows how dramatic the effect can be with their own two versions.

 

[not_so_new]

Much of the difference is in how different polling organizations define "likely voter". Gallup shows how dramatic the effect can be with their own two versions.

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

 

[David Wong]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

This is another reason it's helpful to look at all of the polls instead of any single one.

Also, it's important to note that there isn't even the odd poll showing McCain ahead by 3 or 5. The best the Republicans can do as far as good polling news is finding the odd one that shows him behind within the margin of error. Then Drudge can publish it as a "Shock Poll."

 

[Peephole]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

Among all respondants Obama is ahead by 10 points, and among registered voters, he's ahead by 5 points. Yet they cut his lead down to 1 point.

Lol.

 

[not_so_new]

Among all respondants Obama is ahead by 10 points, and among registered voters, he's ahead by 5 points. Yet they cut his lead down to 1 point.

Lol.

I think it sells papers.......

 

[Pookster]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0

Fox has it at a 9 point lead. ABC/WSJ has it at 11. You have probably a dozen anywhere in between. Who's closest to the true numbers? Time will tell.

 

[dudalb]

I agree you should look at all polls, but AP is the only one that has it dead even.
BUt I have to add my usual warning that the overall polls mean nothing, it is only the state by state polls that matter.

 

[David Wong]

I agree you should look at all polls, but AP is the only one that has it dead even.
BUt I have to add my usual warning that the overall polls mean nothing, it is only the state by state polls that matter.

What the Republican say to that is that the state polls are a lagging indicator, first the national numbers move and then the states start falling in line.

What I find most interesting about the state situation is the McCain campaign has gone all-out to get Pennsylvania... when the polls show him down by 12 or 13 there. What do they know that we don't?

Anything? Do think they maybe that'll be a bad state for Obama turnout?