Poll Vault

[MattusMaximus]

The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 86.7
McCain 13.1

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 55.9
McCain 45.0

NewsFutures
Obama 80
McCain 20

Intrade
Obama 84.3
McCain 15.5

Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD) Electoral College
Obama 364
McCain 174

And since the Electoral College layout should be the real focus at this point, I'm providing the following breakdowns of the YPD's state-by-state prediction market for battleground states...

Ohio - Obama 67.9 McCain 35.0
Virginia - Obama 80.0 McCain 20.9
North Carolina - Obama 60.0 McCain 40.0
Florida - Obama 67.0 McCain 37.7
Missouri - Obama 61.0 McCain 40.9
Colorado - Obama 85.0 McCain 18.5
Nevada - Obama 77.0 McCain 22.7

These numbers on the YPD prediction market are abysmal news for McCain's campaign. If Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri are must-wins for McCain, the chances of him taking all of these needed battleground states are exceedingly small.

And, word has it, Obama's campaign is going to open up the battleground in even more red-states, such as Georgia, North Dakota, and West Virginia, in the next few days. Wow.

 

[BenBurch]

...
And, word has it, Obama's campaign is going to open up the battleground in even more red-states, such as Georgia, North Dakota, and West Virginia, in the next few days. Wow.

All that money. Would be a crime to leave even a dime of it unspent. Especially as you can increase the coattail effect by using it and so get a more tractable Congress to work with.

 

[Malerin]

The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 86.7
McCain 13.1

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 55.9
McCain 45.0

NewsFutures
Obama 80
McCain 20

Intrade
Obama 84.3
McCain 15.5

Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD) Electoral College
Obama 364
McCain 174

And since the Electoral College layout should be the real focus at this point, I'm providing the following breakdowns of the YPD's state-by-state prediction market for battleground states...

Ohio - Obama 67.9 McCain 35.0
Virginia - Obama 80.0 McCain 20.9
North Carolina - Obama 60.0 McCain 40.0
Florida - Obama 67.0 McCain 37.7
Missouri - Obama 61.0 McCain 40.9
Colorado - Obama 85.0 McCain 18.5
Nevada - Obama 77.0 McCain 22.7

These numbers on the YPD prediction market are abysmal news for McCain's campaign. If Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri are must-wins for McCain, the chances of him taking all of these needed battleground states are exceedingly small.

And, word has it, Obama's campaign is going to open up the battleground in even more red-states, such as Georgia, North Dakota, and West Virginia, in the next few days. Wow.

Let's assume that Mccain can't win without Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina, or Virginia. Respectively, that's .38 * .35 * .4 * .2. = .01

So statisitically (if the polls are actual indicators of where things stand) Mccain has a 1% chance of winning at the moment.

 

[Malerin]

All that money. Would be a crime to leave even a dime of it unspent. Especially as you can increase the coattail effect by using it and so get a more tractable Congress to work with.

Yeah, you reach a point of over saturation and diminishing returns. There was an article on MSNBC that Palin had a HUGELY positive effect on Obama's fundraising.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Yeah, you reach a point of over saturation and diminishing returns. There was an article on MSNBC that Palin had a HUGELY positive effect on Obama's fundraising.

Linky? I don't doubt that she has really energized Obama's supporters, I'd just like to see the numbers.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Let's assume that Mccain can't win without Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina, or Virginia. Respectively, that's .38 * .35 * .4 * .2. = .01

So statisitically (if the polls are actual indicators of where things stand) Mccain has a 1% chance of winning at the moment.

Yeah, that's looking pretty damn grim for McCain and the GOP. Ouch

On this point, if anyone wants to crunch numbers and calculate the odds of McCain taking the states necessary to win (such as Malerin did above), the YPD state-by-state prediction market allows you to make up your own Electoral College landscape.

So fiddle away with the possible "McCain wins" scenarios (to get him to 270) and then check the prediction markets to see what his odds are of actually getting that combination of states. This looks like it'd be pretty cool to try!

Yet something else with which to waste my time

 

[MattusMaximus]

First "McCain wins" scenario via the YPD prediction market:

McCain takes the following states (with the prediction market value listed next to it)...

Nevada (22.7)
Colorado (18.5)
Missouri (40.9)
Ohio (35.0)
Virginia (20.9)
North Carolina (40.0)
Florida (37.7)

This would let McCain win 274-264, a very slim margin of victory (the only way, I think, McCain can win now). Doing the math...

.227*.185*.409*.350*.209*.400*.377 = .000189 = .0189%

I'm going to say that McCain is screwed.

Caveat: I'm a bit tipsy and sleepy, so if I messed something up please let me know. Thanks.

 

[Malerin]

First "McCain wins" scenario via the YPD prediction market:

McCain takes the following states (with the prediction market value listed next to it)...

Nevada (22.7)
Colorado (18.5)
Missouri (40.9)
Ohio (35.0)
Virginia (20.9)
North Carolina (40.0)
Florida (37.7)

This would let McCain win 274-264, a very slim margin of victory (the only way, I think, McCain can win now). Doing the math...

.227*.185*.409*.350*.209*.400*.377 = .000189 = .0189%

I'm going to say that McCain is screwed.

Caveat: I'm a bit tipsy and sleepy, so if I messed something up please let me know. Thanks.

Sorry, MM. Couldn't find the article. Maybe I conflated the two in my mind. Could have sworn though.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I'm pretty skeptical about the prediction markets. Don't they just conform to whatever the polls say?

 

[David Wong]

I'm pretty skeptical about the prediction markets. Don't they just conform to whatever the polls say?

Yeah, it's not run by insiders or anything, it's just people like us, watching the polls and betting on the race based on that.

When the polls shift, the prediction markets shift a few days later. That's what we saw earlier during McCain's convention bounce. The markets didn't have some special insight saying, "well, this is a bounce and will end in a week." No, they went running to McCain, favoring him to win.

Then when McCain's poll lead vanished, the prediction markets followed right behind it. The numbers are utterly irrelevant in terms of prediction who's going to win the race. It's just a fun thing to follow, like fantasy football.

 

[aerosolben]

Let's assume that Mccain can't win without Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina, or Virginia. Respectively, that's .38 * .35 * .4 * .2. = .01

So statisitically (if the polls are actual indicators of where things stand) Mccain has a 1% chance of winning at the moment.

Doing the math...

.227*.185*.409*.350*.209*.400*.377 = .000189 = .0189%

I'm going to say that McCain is screwed.

Caveat: I'm a bit tipsy and sleepy, so if I messed something up please let me know. Thanks.

I WILL let you know. As little as I like repeatedly defending McCain in this thread, I can't let this flagrant abuse of statistics go unaddressed.

The calculations you're using assume that the events are INDEPENDENT, which they certainly are not. If John McCain wins Virginia, he's almost certainly won North Carolina as well, and with the situation as it is now, probably Ohio and Florida as well.

I imagine his real odds would be more like a substantial fraction of his weakest state that he needs to win. Which is what the markets appear to predict.

 

[Dr Adequate]

What he said.

 

[chipmunk stew]

From a NY Times/CBS News favorability poll:
Obama: 53% Favorable / 33% Unfavorable (+20)
McCain: 36% Favorable / 45% Unfavorable (-9)

Biden: 50% Favorable / 14% Unfavorable (+36)
Palin: 30% Favorable / 41% Unfavorable (-11)

Mr. Obama’s favorability is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls.

Mrs. Palin’s negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News. Even Dan Quayle, with whom Mrs. Palin is often compared because of her age and inexperience on the national scene, was not viewed as negatively in the 1988 campaign.

 

[Pookster]

Some new Bush State polls out ...

Colorado (9)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Missouri (11)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 20 - Suffolk: McCain by 1 (45%-44%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

North Carolina (15)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (51%-48%)
October 20 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Ohio (20)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)

Virginia (13)
October 20 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 20 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

 

[Pookster]

McCain's electoral vote strategy ...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/mccain-camp-looking-for-way-to-win-without-colorado/

While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.

"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.

The McCain strategy depends on holding a handful of Bush '04 states that are now rated tossups by CNN: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada. It also depends on keeping Virginia, which CNN now considers leaning Democratic, in the GOP column.

But even if McCain won all six of those states, in addition to those in which he is already favored, he would still be shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency.

Which is where Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes come into play. Most polls show McCain trailing by 10 points or more in the state, but one top adviser told CNN on Monday, "The election hinges on Pennsylvania. We'll win Virginia and Nevada in the end, but lose without Pennsylvania."

They're down to hoping to win Pennsylvania. You read it correctly. Pennsylvania. I hope everyone has they're forks ready.

 

[Pookster]

Zogby's national tracking poll is out for today ...

October 21 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 8 (50%-42%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 20

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49J0LF20081021

"It was another very big day for Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "Things clearly are moving in Obama's direction."

It was the second consecutive day that Obama gained ground on McCain as the two head into the final sprint to the November 4 election.

Obama, an Illinois senator, expanded his lead among two key swing groups. His advantage with independent voters grew from 11 to 15 points, and his edge with women voters grew from 8 to 13 points.

Obama also took a lead among voters above the age of 70 and expanded his lead among Hispanics and Catholics. His support among Republicans grew from 9 percent to 12 percent a day after he received the endorsement of Republican former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

"Maybe this is the Powell effect," Zogby said. "That wasn't just an endorsement, that was a pretty powerful statement."

 

[Gnu World Order]

But Florida, at least, appears to be swinging back toward McCain, if we can trust the latest Rasmussen poll from that state. Rasmussen had Obama with the lead in their last three polls, but this one shows McCain with a one-point lead.


One of the weirder questions I've seen is on that page:

If faced with one of life’s toughest decisions, 48% of voters in Florida say they would ask McCain for advice, while 45% would turn to Obama.

What kind of "life's toughest decisions" do we turn to the president for? Should I pull the plug on my parent's ventilator? Should I get a divorce? Should I file for bankruptcy? None of those are questions I would depend upon my president for help with.

 

[Malerin]

I WILL let you know. As little as I like repeatedly defending McCain in this thread, I can't let this flagrant abuse of statistics go unaddressed.

The calculations you're using assume that the events are INDEPENDENT, which they certainly are not. If John McCain wins Virginia, he's almost certainly won North Carolina as well, and with the situation as it is now, probably Ohio and Florida as well.

I imagine his real odds would be more like a substantial fraction of his weakest state that he needs to win. Which is what the markets appear to predict.

That's true, but there are plausible scenarios where Mccain could win Virginia, due to heavy Republican turnout, but still lose in N. Carolina, due to heavy black turnout. These state elections may not be independent events like coin tosses, but they're not joined at the hip either.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen poll for today ...

October 21 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Unchanged from Oct 20

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now say that Obama is a better leader than McCain while 42% hold the opposite view. That’s the first time all year that Obama has held the advantage on this question

Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

 

[Pookster]

Here's Battleground's take on it ...

October 21 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 1 (48%-47%) -- Obama lead -3 from Oct 20


This is one of those that tends to show significant swings from day to day.