Joe the Liar

[Puppycow]

But I guess it isn't a fallacy to assume that I believe this...which is why I called it a theory.

My personal opinion is that Joe is a victim of McCain's need to create a symbol of the working class...and it backfired, not only on McCain, but also on Joe.

It is completely irrelevant who Joe is related to.

 

[mr rosewater]

Ben Bernanke just told congress that we need another stimulus.

It's a bit of a mistake to think of this in zero-sum terms (taking money from one person and giving it to another). The economy is facing a recession now in part because consumer spending is falling. When the economy shrinks, the size of the pie gets smaller. Giving money to consumers would help alleviate that problem and spped recovery. Just as there is a "trickle-down" effect, there is also a "trickle-up." Businesses need consumers with money to spend, too.

It is possible to have an economy with both incentives for economic productivity and a social safety net.

Here we go again 300.00 or 600.00 US now what should I do???? Heat my house for one month it is winter almost for me. Maybe save it for fuel for my car, no, instead of letting them buy my vote let them keep it and pay down the national debt whats that like 11 trillion. What does this have to do with beating up the Ohio guy?

 

[mhaze]

Ben Bernanke just told congress that we need another stimulus.

It's a bit of a mistake to think of this in zero-sum terms (taking money from one person and giving it to another). The economy is facing a recession now in part because consumer spending is falling. When the economy shrinks, the size of the pie gets smaller. Giving money to consumers would help alleviate that problem and spped recovery. Just as there is a "trickle-down" effect, there is also a "trickle-up." Businesses need consumers with money to spend, too.

It is possible to have an economy with both incentives for economic productivity and a social safety net.

That argument is idiotic.

Printing money and giving it out according to any formula is a redistribution of the wealth of the old (fewer) dollars into the new wheelbarrows of dollars.

On the contrary, something like repealing cap gains tax would excite business and trickle every which way.

Right now consumer spending is and will stay down because a great deal of wealth in equity of homeowners, against which they have been borrowing and spending, has vanished. Gone. Period.

One more thing: If Obama's ideas are "socialist" or "Marxist" then what the heck is McCain's plan to spend $300 billion buying up bad mortgages at face value and resetting the terms of those mortgages (giving taxpayer money to banks and homeowners). National Review and the Heritage Foundation panned that idea.

It is another really dumb idea but at least it directs money toward a specific party (homeowners) damaged by irresponsible fed policies largely originating with FMFB.

 

[Meadmaker]

Oh, and that still doesn't answer the question of why the negative publicity surrounding Joe the Plumber should be assumed to originate with the Obama campaign, rather than media acting in their own interests because it's...you know...a story.

For my part, I know that the negative publicityfor Joe doesn't originate with the Obama camp. Obama's too smart for that. However, it does get spread by Obama supporters, and Obama is judged, in part, by the company he keeps. If people have negative attitudes about his supporters, some will transfer to the candidate.

 

[Puppycow]

That argument is idiotic.

Printing money and giving it out according to any formula is a redistribution of the wealth of the old (fewer) dollars into the new wheelbarrows of dollars.

So Bernanke's an idiot?

The reason why it makes sense is because there is now a threat of general deflation. I agree that printing up too much money is a bad idea if it leads to hyperinflation (bad). If it prevents deflation, however, that's good.

 

[BenBurch]

Well, understand that deflation is driven by too little currency chasing too many goods.

What we are seeing is not that at all.

We are seeing DEMAND dropping because of a weak economy and oversupply of goods as a result and so price falls.

Its not that there are too few dollars, its that there are too few consumers. The dollars are there, mostly, but people who have them are sitting on them as there is very little they can do with them that will not result in a loss right now.

 

[mhaze]

So Bernanke's an idiot?

The reason why it makes sense is because there is now a threat of general deflation. I agree that printing up too much money is a bad idea if it leads to hyperinflation (bad). If it prevents deflation, however, that's good.

You presume a long term ill effect does not matter if there is some chance of a short term gain. We had 11-19% interest under Carter (I don't recall the Tbill rate offhand), but tax revenues are insufficient to pay the debt service should this reoccur.

Natural adjustments in value such as home values must be allowed to find their own level, otherwise the corrections when they occur will be much more severe.

Is Helicopter Ben an Idiot? Good Question. Certainly not in the sense that Cisneros, Barney Frank, Chris Dobb, and FMFB top dogs were - these should be brought up on federal charges in my opinion.

It is quite unlikely either Presidential candidate understands this matter.

 

[geni]

One more thing: If Obama's ideas are "socialist" or "Marxist" then what the heck is McCain's plan to spend $300 billion buying up bad mortgages at face value and resetting the terms of those mortgages (giving taxpayer money to banks and homeowners). National Review and the Heritage Foundation panned that idea.

Hard to say. Very few poltical idiologies would advocate that form of intervention in the market. Mussolini's version of fascism would but only as one of three options (the others being control or direct management) but it incompatible with various anti cartel laws that I assume McCain supports.

You might be able to get something to support it out of certian forms of protectionism.

 

[Puppycow]

Well, understand that deflation is driven by too little currency chasing too many goods.

What we are seeing is not that at all.

We are seeing DEMAND dropping because of a weak economy and oversupply of goods as a result and so price falls.

Its not that there are too few dollars, its that there are too few consumers. The dollars are there, mostly, but people who have them are sitting on them as there is very little they can do with them that will not result in a loss right now.

Seems like a distinction without a difference.

Are you saying we don't need a stimulus now?

Heat my house for one month it is winter almost for me. Maybe save it for fuel for my car, no, instead of letting them buy my vote let them keep it and pay down the national debt whats that like 11 trillion.

Please remind me who was the last president to balance the budget?

 

[geni]

You presume a long term ill effect does not matter if there is some chance of a short term gain.

In the long term people tend to be dead. You have however described how most of the free market operates (there are a few oil companies that operate otherwise).

We had 11-19% interest under Carter (I don't recall the Tbill rate offhand), but tax revenues are insufficient to pay the debt service should this reoccur.

There is actualy an argument to be made that the current mess could be reduced by lowering the amount paid on goverment debts.

Natural adjustments in value such as home values must be allowed to find their own level, otherwise the corrections when they occur will be much more severe.

Not actualy true the corrections can be utterly trivial it really depends under what situation the goverment decides to let go.

 

[Puppycow]

You presume a long term ill effect does not matter if there is some chance of a short term gain. We had 11-19% interest under Carter (I don't recall the Tbill rate offhand), but tax revenues are insufficient to pay the debt service should this reoccur.

I wonder. According to this, the US received about $2.5 trillion in taxes for 2007 and total debt is about $10 trillion. Roughly 4 times revenue. GDP is over $13 trillion. Debt service was about $400 billion.

Would a person be able to borrow 4 times his salary to buy a house, for example? I think so. But the government has advantages as a borrower over an individual. The government could raise taxes if needed in a pinch. An individual might not be able to get a raise, and also doesn't have job security like the government. And the government will never retire or die (we hope).

I'm not saying it wouldn't be painful, but I bet we could service the debt even under Carter era interest rates.

FMFB

I looked that up, but couldn't find anything.

 

[Malerin]

Even if interest rates go through the roof, it won't have much impact on the national debt. It will affect FUTURE debt, but the interest rates on all the T-bills floating out there on the current six trillion or so of debt (the other four trillion exists as medicare/S.S. IOU's) have already been set. I won't swear to it, but I think the interest on the debt, all told, is around 4-5%.

 

[BenBurch]

Seems like a distinction without a difference.

Are you saying we don't need a stimulus now?

...

No, that stimulating the supply-side will not be a huge success unless that puts money into the pockets of consumers to move those goods out.

 

[Malerin]

I wonder. According to this, the US received about $2.5 trillion in taxes for 2007 and total debt is about $10 trillion. Roughly 4 times revenue. GDP is over $13 trillion. Debt service was about $400 billion.

Would a person be able to borrow 4 times his salary to buy a house, for example? I think so. But the government has advantages as a borrower over an individual. The government could raise taxes if needed in a pinch. An individual might not be able to get a raise, and also doesn't have job security like the government. And the government will never retire or die (we hope).

I'm not saying it wouldn't be painful, but I bet we could service the debt even under Carter era interest rates.



I looked that up, but couldn't find anything.

FMFB= Fannie Mae&Freddie Mac? M and B are close on the keyboard.

 

[SnuggleSmacks]

For my part, I know that the negative publicityfor Joe doesn't originate with the Obama camp. Obama's too smart for that. However, it does get spread by Obama supporters, and Obama is judged, in part, by the company he keeps. If people have negative attitudes about his supporters, some will transfer to the candidate.

Actually I agree with this...which is why McCain is losing support because of the whole Ayers thing. But at least we've seen him perpetuating that story himself, rather than being blamed for the actions of others.

As for the bail-out of homeowners...imagine being that person who went through foreclosure the week before it comes to pass. Or that person who sacrificed severely in order to keep up their mortgage payments to avoid foreclosure. It leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those who did get in over their heads but still made it work, or just missed the deadline.

Personally, I would love it if my mortgage payments suddenly went down, or the time left was suddenly shortened. But, it's not going to happen, because I bought a home I could afford. So...yes, the bailout might be good for the whole, in many important ways, but the average person who just got kicked out of their home isn't going to see it that way, nor will the person who ate Ramon noodles for a month so they could make the payments.

Ok...so we keep a lot more people in their homes...and then what?

 

[shuize]

As for the bail-out of homeowners...imagine being that person who went through foreclosure the week before it comes to pass. Or that person who sacrificed severely in order to keep up their mortgage payments to avoid foreclosure. It leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those who did get in over their heads but still made it work, or just missed the deadline.

Personally, I would love it if my mortgage payments suddenly went down, or the time left was suddenly shortened. But, it's not going to happen, because I bought a home I could afford. So...yes, the bailout might be good for the whole, in many important ways, but the average person who just got kicked out of their home isn't going to see it that way, nor will the person who ate Ramon noodles for a month so they could make the payments.

I know this is off-topic, but I really agree with this. If the government makes any more moves to reward stupidity at the expense of responsible folks, I think I might just mail my keys in to the bank and let them deal with one more foreclosure. I'm tired of getting the shaft for living within my means.

 

[Meadmaker]

I know this is off-topic, but I really agree with this. If the government makes any more moves to reward stupidity at the expense of responsible folks, I think I might just mail my keys in to the bank and let them deal with one more foreclosure. I'm tired of getting the shaft for living within my means.

Ditto. I wish I had one more bedroom in my house, but I couldn't afford it. It sure is nice of me to help out people who made a different choice.

 

[mhaze]

I wonder. According to this, the US received about $2.5 trillion in taxes for 2007 and total debt is about $10 trillion. Roughly 4 times revenue. GDP is over $13 trillion. Debt service was about $400 billion.

Would a person be able to borrow 4 times his salary to buy a house, for example? I think so. But the government has advantages as a borrower over an individual. The government could raise taxes if needed in a pinch. An individual might not be able to get a raise, and also doesn't have job security like the government. And the government will never retire or die (we hope).

I'm not saying it wouldn't be painful, but I bet we could service the debt even under Carter era interest rates.

Income tax receipts hover around $1T, so if Tbill auctions came in at 9% instead of 3%, there goes your country. Your solution "the government could raise taxes in a pinch" actually doesn't work but exemplifies the problem. And the only other solution is to print more money.

Painful fixes could fix this, but they are pain of politically unpopular types such as reigning in entitlements. But we careen in the opposite direction more with each nuance of a "crisis".

FMFB my bad, I meant FMFM.

Even if interest rates go through the roof, it won't have much impact on the national debt. It will affect FUTURE debt, but the interest rates on all the T-bills floating out there on the current six trillion or so of debt (the other four trillion exists as medicare/S.S. IOU's) have already been set. I won't swear to it, but I think the interest on the debt, all told, is around 4-5%.

Those Tbills expire, pay off, and new sets are auctioned every few days. New market interest rates take effect pretty quick on the whole debt package.

 

[Malerin]

Those Tbills expire, pay off, and new sets are auctioned every few days. New market interest rates take effect pretty quick on the whole debt package.

That's true. For some reason, I was thinking the debt was a bunch of 30-yr T-Bills that were all issued the same day.

 

[mhaze]

That's true. For some reason, I was thinking the debt was a bunch of 30-yr T-Bills that were all issued the same day.

The US Gov. holds the Mother of All Adjustible Rate Morgages, one might say.

May be part of the (lame) reasons for this current slide towards socialistic takeover of selected for survival banking institutions.