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Poll Vault

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The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 86.6
McCain 13.7

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 57.8
McCain 45.0

NewsFutures
Obama 78
McCain 22

Intrade
Obama 83.5
McCain 17.3

Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD) Electoral College
Obama 364
McCain 174

On a separate note, the chances that Obama will win Ohio just went up today. The Supreme Court ruled that the Ohio GOP couldn't challenge recent voter registration efforts in that state, which is a big win for the Dems since they stand to gain more from the newly registered voters. Here's the news story.

Currently, on the YPD prediction markets there is a 70% chance that Obama will win Ohio. This is horrible news for McCain, since without Ohio his chances of winning are prohibitively small.
 
Latest Bush State polls (I've added North Dakota as a State in play) ...

Colorado (9)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Missouri (11)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Nevada (5)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (55%-42%)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

North Dakota (3)
October 17 - Research 2000: Tied (45%-45%)
October 16 - North Dakota UTU (D): Obama by 3 (44%-41%)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)

Ohio (20)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

West Virginia (5)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
 
The daily tracking polls out so far ...

October 18 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (49%-42%) -- Obama lead -3 from Oct 17
October 18 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 17
October 18 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 4 (48%-44%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 17

From Rasmussen ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days.
Click to expand...
 
Fivethirtyeight's article on McCain's recent momentum:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1018.html

No question he's tightening the race in most polls, just a matter of how far it goes.

Joe the Plumber may - MAY - have saved this election for the Republicans. I personally think it's might have come too late for him, he has too little cash left and is too far behind in early voting to turn it around, even with a lightning rod issue like this.

But I have a feeling it's going to be close.
 
Here is my question; Are the likely voter polls now excluding those who have already voted? Since we learned today that the those who are early voting are favoring Obama much more than those who plan to vote Nov 4th, are we going to see a swing towards McCain in the LV polls because they count only who remains?
 
BenBurch said:
Here is my question; Are the likely voter polls now excluding those who have already voted? Since we learned today that the those who are early voting are favoring Obama much more than those who plan to vote Nov 4th, are we going to see a swing towards McCain in the LV polls because they count only who remains?
Click to expand...


Ooh, good question.

But also don't forget that races just tend to tighten in the last couple of weeks. I've never heard anyone adequately explain why, but they do.
 
Latest Bush State poll ...

North Carolina (15)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)


Latest national tracking polls at this moment ...

October 19 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 3 (48%-45%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 18
October 18 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 7.4 (47.2%-39.8%) -- Obama lead +2.1 from Oct 17
October 18 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 2 (49%-47%) -- Unchanged from Oct 17
October 18 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 17
October 18 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (49%-42%) -- Obama lead -3 from Oct 17
October 18 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 17
October 17 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 4 (49%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 16
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 6 today (51%-45%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 18

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final Presidential debate and shows that the race continues to remain quite stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-four straight days while McCain’s total has been between 44% and 46% during those days.
Click to expand...


This should be interesting ...

Polling data on “Joe the Plumber” will be released later today
Click to expand...
 
Latest on West Virginia ...

West Virginia (5)
October 19 - PPP (D): McCain by 8 (50%-42%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)


I heard on Meet The Press this morning that Obama plans to spend $5 million in WV over the next two weeks.
 
It's pretty much a statistical tie on Reuters/CSpan/Zogby:

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081019

Obama by 3, with a margin of error of 3.

"For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened," Zogby said.

He said the Arizona senator appeared to have solidified his support with the Republican base -- where 9 out of 10 voters now back him -- and was also gaining ground among the independents who may play a decisive role in the November 4 election.
Click to expand...
 
The RCP average is all the way down to 5 points, in Obama's favor.

At the rate he's going, McCain could have that wiped out entirely by election day. Is it too late?
 
Here are the latest Gallup polls ...

October 19 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 3 (49%-46%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 18
October 19 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 7 (51%-44%) -- Obama lead +3 from Oct 18

The latest Hotline poll ...

October 19 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (48%-41%) -- Unchanged from Oct 18
 
David Wong said:
The RCP average is all the way down to 5 points, in Obama's favor.

At the rate he's going, McCain could have that wiped out entirely by election day. Is it too late?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't put much into what Zogby says. His polls have been notoriously all over the place in a race that has been a steady 4-5 point lead for Obama for about a month now.

When you see McCain scoring above 45% consistently in other polls, then there may be some changes going on.
 
David Wong said:
The RCP average is all the way down to 5 points, in Obama's favor.

At the rate he's going, McCain could have that wiped out entirely by election day. Is it too late?
Click to expand...


TIPP tracking has had Obama increasing his lead all week. Gallup and Rasmussen show an increase in Obama's lead today. Hotline shows no change in a 7 point lead. As I said months ago, a poll of polls like RCP's is useless. These polls can't be averaged because of differing polling methodologies. They're apples, oranges, and other assorted things and all you get from mixing them into one thing is a fruit basket ... or a mess. Neither is going to tell you anything about where the race stands.
 
Pookster said:
I wouldn't put much into what Zogby says. His polls have been notoriously all over the place in a race that has been a steady 4-5 point lead for Obama for about a month now.
Click to expand...
There was a note on fivethirtyeight today about how Zogby continues to use party identification weights based on 2004, despite the massive gap in registrations and enthusiasm this year.
 
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