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Is it possible that all of the undecideds are breaking McCain's way?

As in, they held out for this long and since they couldn't make up their minds, they just fell back on the most familiar candidate?
 
Here some of the daily tracking polls (I'm dropping Research 2000 as it is just unrealistically way out there) ...

October 16 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 2 (49%-47%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 15
October 16 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 6 (51%-45%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 15
October 16 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 8 (49%-41%) -- Unchanged from Oct 15
October 16 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 6 (50%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 15
October 16 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 15
October 16 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 5 (49%-44%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 15


The latest "other" national polls ...

October 15 - Pew Research: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 14 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 14 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 12 (51%-39%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
October 14 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 8 (47%-39-Nader 3%-Barr 1%%)


I believe Rasmussen's poll is about where the race is at (4%-5%) point lead. The polling ranges have yet to change in a significant way (50%-52% for Obama, 44%-45% for McCain). The changes over the past day seem to be more noise than anything else. If they continue over the coming days, then there may be a significant shift going on.
 
David Wong said:
Is it possible that all of the undecideds are breaking McCain's way?

As in, they held out for this long and since they couldn't make up their minds, they just fell back on the most familiar candidate?
Click to expand...

Intrade certainly doesn't think so. Mccain's at 14. The latest state polling is very telling:
Virginia: Obama +10
Ohio: Obama +5
Florida: Obama +5
N. Caorlina: Obama +2

Mccain can't afford to lose any of those.
 
Pookster said:
I believe Rasmussen's poll is about where the race is at (4%-5%) point lead. The polling ranges have yet to change in a significant way (50%-52% for Obama, 44%-45% for McCain). The changes over the past day seem to be more noise than anything else. If they continue over the coming days, then there may be a significant shift going on.
Click to expand...

My theory is that McCain bought himself a little bounce, perhaps by defending Obama to the woman who thought he's an Arab. Once the last debate gets factored into the tracking polls and the state polls, though, we'll start to see the margins widen again.
 
Didn't someone say on this thread earlier that "likely voter" polls aren't necessarily that trustworthy? I cannot recall the whole criticism of them.
 
This makes no sense to me. If Obama has solid leads in all Kerry states and "outside the margin of error" leads in several Bush states, how can the overall race be a toss-up? And to what are we ascribing voter shift? McCain at best tied the debate, the Ayers and Acorn stuff was seen quite negatively by the independents polled, the stock market is acting like a ball of Flubber, and Sarah is still Sarah. If this is really tightening, I can't understand why.
 
David Wong said:
Gallup's Likely Voter poll...

Dead tie. That is, within the margin of error.

Obama 49
McCain 47

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

So we've got three major polls showing this race close enough that a small bump or Bradley effect puts McCain and Sarah Palin in the white house.

Nobody thinks this is significant?
Click to expand...


The Drudge Report is also making much hay of this poll. However, it is NOT significant, and here's why not...

FiveThirtyEight.com: Today's Polls, 10/16

... None of the dozen or so other polls that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup's model, including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the Zogby poll, as he had for the past several of days on his site, but which today showed Obama gaining ground.)

Let me be clear: I don't blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative. Unlike certain other folks, it's not as though he's made any claim to being objective. With real news -- which polls aren't -- he generally has excellent and entertaining instincts.

I do, however, blame those of who allow yourselves to have your day ruined when Drudge moonlights as some kind of polling analyst.

A fairer way to analyze tracking polls, in any event, is something like this: McCain gained ground in three of the seven trackers today (Gallup, Rasmussen, Battleground). He lost ground in one (Zogby). Three others (Research 2000, Hotline, IBD/TIPP) were unchanged.

That could indicate a slight tightening toward McCain, who also had gained ground on average in the tracking polls yesterday. It could also indicate statistical noise. What it probably does not indicate is any dramatic shift in the momentum of the race. ...
Click to expand...
 
gdnp said:
This makes no sense to me. If Obama has solid leads in all Kerry states and "outside the margin of error" leads in several Bush states, how can the overall race be a toss-up? And to what are we ascribing voter shift? McCain at best tied the debate, the Ayers and Acorn stuff was seen quite negatively by the independents polled, the stock market is acting like a ball of Flubber, and Sarah is still Sarah. If this is really tightening, I can't understand why.
Click to expand...

If a McCain lock-in state like Idaho went from 80% McCain to 90% McCain because Democrats were no longer planning to vote, and that happened in several similar places, that would move the national popular vote polls together without changing the victory margins in any of the solid blue states. You absolutely can win a blow-out in the electoral vote and have a substantial "loss" in the popular vote.
 
gdnp said:
This makes no sense to me. If Obama has solid leads in all Kerry states and "outside the margin of error" leads in several Bush states, how can the overall race be a toss-up? And to what are we ascribing voter shift? McCain at best tied the debate, the Ayers and Acorn stuff was seen quite negatively by the independents polled, the stock market is acting like a ball of Flubber, and Sarah is still Sarah. If this is really tightening, I can't understand why.
Click to expand...
The shifts are minor and inconsistent, and may just be statistical noise.

Additionally, the numbers aren't accounting for the debate - I don't think there's been any real post-debate polling including the national trackers yet.
 
aerosolben said:
The shifts are minor and inconsistent, and may just be statistical noise.

Additionally, the numbers aren't accounting for the debate - I don't think there's been any real post-debate polling including the national trackers yet.
Click to expand...

Today's tracking polls will have one day worth of polling from after the debate. Here is the first tracking poll out this morning ...

October 17 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 5 (49%-44%) -- Unchanged from Oct 16
 
Gnu World Order said:
My theory is that McCain bought himself a little bounce, perhaps by defending Obama to the woman who thought he's an Arab. Once the last debate gets factored into the tracking polls and the state polls, though, we'll start to see the margins widen again.
Click to expand...


I see noise in the polls. The changes are well within the MOEs. The same was true to some degree last week when the polls inched up a little bit for Obama. His lead has been about 5 for the past three to four weeks in the tracking polls that have the best track records. Until McCain starts polling consistently above 45% and Obama below 50%, nothing has changed.

The margin of victory is going to be relatively close for the popular vote. At the moment, I'm expecting Obama to top out at 52% and McCain at 47%. The electoral vote could end up being very close or even a landslide at those percentages. It just depends how all the competitive Bush States end up going.
 
Here is the latest from Rasmussen ...

October 17 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Unchanged from Oct 16

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days. The last time McCain was up by even a single point was one month ago today
Click to expand...

The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women. Obama leads by thirteen percentage points among voters under 40 while McCain leads by six among those over 65. Voters from 40 to 64 are more evenly divided. Political conservatives favor McCain by an 80% to 17% margin while liberals favor Obama by an even wider margin, 89% to 8%
Click to expand...

ETA:

Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Click to expand...
 
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Update for a few Bush States:

Missouri (11)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Ohio (20)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
 
It looks like more bad news for the GOP, but this time on the Congressional front (from Gallup)...

Democrats Lead in Congressional Races

A mid-October USA Today/Gallup poll finds the Democrats leading the race to control the U.S. House of Representatives. Gallup's generic congressional ballot finds likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate in their district to the Republican by 51% to 45%, regardless of the likely voter model used.

These results represent an improved positioning for the Democratic Party compared to the previous reading on congressional voting intention, taken right after the Republican convention. ...
Click to expand...

Has anyone seen other polls on this question?
 
Latest for Florida ...

Florida (27)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
 
Pookster said:
Latest for Florida ...

Florida (27)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
Click to expand...

That should scare the hell out of the Mccain camp. There's no plausible way he wins without Florida, and he's been down consistently since the end of Sept.
 
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