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Here is a stunner ...

West Virginia (5)
October 9 - American Research Group: Obama by 8 (50%-42%)


:wide-eyed


But ... ARG has been known to put out some odd looking polls in the past. Time will tell.
 
A side note. This article provides some explanation why Obama is giving McCain such trouble in many southwestern states as well as Florida, even before the big economic downturn hit in mid-Sept...

Hispanics turn cold shoulder to McCain

Despite championing immigration reform in 2007, John McCain is poised to lose the Hispanic vote by a landslide margin that is well below President George W. Bush's 2004 performance.

Polls show Obama winning the broadest support from Latino voters of any Democrat in a decade, while McCain is struggling to reach 30 percent, closer to Senator Bob Dole's dismal 1996 result than to Bush's historic 40% four years ago.

McCain seems to have wound up with the worst of both worlds: He appears to be getting no credit from Latino voters for his past support for immigration reform, while carrying the baggage of other Republicans' hostility to illegal immigration. ...
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Seems like a LOT of chickens are coming home to roost with McCain and his party. Ouch.
 
It'll be interesting to see whether or not the McCain campaign's attempt to smear Obama as "palling around with terrorists" will have any real effect. At first glance, it doesn't seem to matter much...

Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else

... It is less clear, however, whether these attacks are having any tangible effects on perceptions of the candidates. Three of the daily tracking polls -- Rasmussen, Hotline, and Research 2000 -- chart the candidates' favorability scores on a daily basis. Let's compare the candidates' ratings on 10/3 -- before the Ayers attacks began -- with those from yesterday, 10/8. (Why yesterday rather than today? Because we don't want to conflate the Ayers impact with that of the presidential debate, which began to be reflected in today's figures).

First, Barack Obama:

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Rasmussen 10/3 57 42
Rasmussen 10/8 56 (-1) 42 (n/c)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Research 2K 10/3 59 32
Research 2K 10/8 57 (-2) 33 (+1)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Hotline 10/3 58 36
Hotline 10/8 56 (-2) 39 (+3)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Average 10/3 58.0 36.7
Average 10/8 56.3 (-1.7) 38.0 (+1.3)

Between the three pollsters, Obama's favorables decreased by an average of 1.7 points over this window, while his unfavorables increased by 1.3 points. These numbers suggest pehraps some incremental gains for McCain, but are well within the margins of error of the respective polls (the poll with the largest sample size -- Rasmussen -- showed the least effect). By comparison, when the Jeremiah Wright story first broke on March 13, Barack Obama's favorables decreased by about 5 points within the span of a week, and his unfavorables increased by the same margin.

Here is what happened to McCain's own ratings over the same window:

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Rasmussen 10/3 52 45
Rasmussen 10/8 52 (n/c) 46 (+1)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Research 2K 10/3 41 45
Research 2K 10/8 44 (+3) 49 (+4)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Hotline 10/3 53 40
Hotline 10/8 53 (n/c) 41 (+1)

Pollster Favorable Unfavorable
Average 10/3 48.7 43.3
Average 10/8 49.7 (+1.0) 45.3 (+2.0)

McCain's unfavorables increased slightly over this window, by an average of 2 points, although only the Research 2000 result is outside the margin of error. McCain's favorables also increased by an average of 1 point. ...
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... Obama's best strategy may simply be to appear before a national audience as frequently as possible, as voters have always almost reacted favorably to Obama when he has had such opportunities. Obama's favorables ticked upward in all three trackers in today's release, suggesting that his strong performance in Tuesday night's debate may cancel out or exceed any traction that McCain had been able to make on Ayers. This may also be the impetus behind Obama's decision today to make a 30-minute, prime time ad buy in the week before the election, as candidates have few opportunities to reach a mass audience once the final debate has come and gone. If it so desired, the Obama campaign could probably also drive a decent amount of attention to the Keating Five, as the traffic metrics on the story essentially matched that of Ayers for the 48 hours or so that Chicago was pushing it.
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Obama's plan to do a massive 1/2-hour ad buy one week before the election is one smooth move, imo. He's got some really smart people on his campaign. I'm going to guess that any loss in the polls from the Ayers b.s. is at least going to be canceled out by Obama's appearances in the final debate and this big ad buy. Heck, his numbers might even go up higher.

We'll see what happens.
 
Obama 52% Victory Forecast by Yale Professor's Economy Model

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- With 25 days before Election Day, a forecasting model that has called the top vote-getter in the last three presidential races predicts a solid victory for Barack Obama.

The Democratic presidential candidate will get about 52 percent of the popular vote on Nov. 4, according to an economic model developed by Yale University Professor Ray Fair.

``The model has predicted all along that the Democrat will get the majority of the two-party vote, and it's still saying that,'' Fair, who has been forecasting a Democratic victory since November 2006, said in a telephone interview from New Haven, Connecticut.

Fair cautions, though, that his algorithm doesn't measure the effects of race, age or foreign policy, all of which may play an outsize role this election, the first in which a black candidate is a major-party nominee. ``All the political stuff isn't accounted for,'' said Fair.

The only economic data that Fair's vote equation uses that are still unknown are third-quarter gross domestic product growth and inflation. Assuming a 0.2 percent decline in GDP this quarter, the median of a recent Bloomberg survey of 52 economists, and 3 percent inflation, the model forecasts Republican John McCain will receive 48 percent of the vote.

The margin of error of 2.5 percentage points means some probability remains that McCain will win. Fair said the chances that his model will incorrectly predict the election result are roughly 20 percent to 25 percent.
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FWIW
 
Dem strategists see landslide
Three weeks of historic economic upheaval have done more than just tilt a handful of once reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

Four large states John McCain once seemed well-positioned to win — Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida — have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states — a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events — he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states — Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada — not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.
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A few Bush State polls out this morning ...

Florida (27)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Ohio (20)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - ARG: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 7 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (49%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)


And one national tracking poll ...

October 10 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 5 (48%-43%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 9
 
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 today again (50%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Those figures are unchanged from yesterday and mark the fifteenth straight day that Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%
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Obama is viewed favorably by 55%, McCain by 54% (see trends). Thirty-eight percent (38%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 30% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, the numbers are 26% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable.
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Among voters who consider economic issues to be the most important voting issue, Obama leads 65% to 31%. Among all other voters, McCain leads 60% to 36% (see other recent demographic highlights). It is hard to overstate the impact of the recent economic crisis on Election 2008. Prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the recent Wall Street meltdown, McCain held a very modest lead over Obama nationwide.
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I wonder why McCain bailed on Michigan (Obama +8) as opposed to...?

Pennsylvania: Obama +14
Wisconsin: Obama +9
New Hampshire: Obama +10

(RCP aggregates)
 
varwoche said:
I wonder why McCain bailed on Michigan (Obama +8) as opposed to...?

Pennsylvania: Obama +14
Wisconsin: Obama +9
New Hampshire: Obama +10

(RCP aggregates)
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As we said earlier, they have their own polling. It's much more detailed than what you have. The campaign is looking at specific counties and neighborhoods and judging where there may still be pools of undecideds.

It wasn't the RCP average that drove them from Michigan, it was their own data telling them there wen't enough undecideds left to change the result. That same detailed data apparently painted a more optimistic picture in those other states.
 
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This scares the absolute frakking crap out of me on many levels…..

Among voters who consider economic issues to be the most important voting issue, Obama leads 65% to 31%. Among all other voters, McCain leads 60% to 36% (see other recent demographic highlights). It is hard to overstate the impact of the recent economic crisis on Election 2008. Prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the recent Wall Street meltdown, McCain held a very modest lead over Obama nationwide.
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1) What happens if the economy gets slightly better for a few weeks, you know American's and their fickleness. I don't think anyone feels this is a short term market correct, it is going to be a years long rollercoaster ride with many up and downhill swings. If one of these uphill swings happens in between now and the election and all of Obama's eggs are in one basket…. Well….. That could spell some serious trouble for the ticket.

2) Has anyone WATCHED these debates? McCain leads 60% to 36% with voters interested in "other issues?" Like what exactly? I just don’t see how anything McCain has said or done in any of his debates, speeches or with his campaign platform that would lead one to believe he is THAT much better on "other issues." That is absurd and it makes me question the whole polling process (no more so than I did before frankly) in either direction. This could be much closer than people are making it out to be.

3) Did McCain REALLY hold a "modest lead" over Obama nationwide and was it really the market that changed this? There was an uptick after Palin was added to the ticket and the GOP convention but that luster was starting to fade before the markets fell. I think Obama was starting to pick up steam again before the Lehman Brothers collapse and I think too many people are putting too much stock in the economy and not enough stock in the rest of Obama's capabilities. Again, if the main thing that seems to be propelling Obama now changes because of a market upturn I wonder what Obama has to fall back on?

I guess I am just worried about this whole thing.
 
I'm consistently stunned by people on the left's inability to conceive of Republicans.

They exist. Their concerns have not gone away.

They worry about high taxes. They worry about abortion, and upholding their faith. They worry about immigration. They worry about a country growing lax on national defense with rising threats from China, and Iran.

They're not insane. They're not bigots. They just have a different point of view than you. They're upset that the debate didn't touch on abortion, or gun control, or immigration. They see these as larger, broader issues that trump temporary swings in the economy.

There's a reason no Democrat has broken 50% since LBJ in 1964. This is not a Democrat country, and it isn't going to turn into one overnight.
 
not_so_new said:
This scares the absolute frakking crap out of me on many levels…..



1) What happens if the economy gets slightly better for a few weeks, you know American's and their fickleness. I don't think anyone feels this is a short term market correct, it is going to be a years long rollercoaster ride with many up and downhill swings. If one of these uphill swings happens in between now and the election and all of Obama's eggs are in one basket…. Well….. That could spell some serious trouble for the ticket.

2) Has anyone WATCHED these debates? McCain leads 60% to 36% with voters interested in "other issues?" Like what exactly? I just don’t see how anything McCain has said or done in any of his debates, speeches or with his campaign platform that would lead one to believe he is THAT much better on "other issues." That is absurd and it makes me question the whole polling process (no more so than I did before frankly) in either direction. This could be much closer than people are making it out to be.

3) Did McCain REALLY hold a "modest lead" over Obama nationwide and was it really the market that changed this? There was an uptick after Palin was added to the ticket and the GOP convention but that luster was starting to fade before the markets fell. I think Obama was starting to pick up steam again before the Lehman Brothers collapse and I think too many people are putting too much stock in the economy and not enough stock in the rest of Obama's capabilities. Again, if the main thing that seems to be propelling Obama now changes because of a market upturn I wonder what Obama has to fall back on?

I guess I am just worried about this whole thing.
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I think the quote, despite claiming that it's hard to, does overstate the impact of the economic downturn. McCain gained a brief, small lead from the convention/Palin bump. The tanking economy accelerated the downside of the bump and drove it down further than it would have gone, but it's safe to assume that Obama would have regained the lead either way.

Also, the fact that the people currently who consider something other than the economy to be the number one issue facing the country are leaning heavily towards McCain doesn't mean that voters as a whole think McCain would better handle those issues or that voters as a whole would lean much further toward McCain if something other than the economy surfaced as most people's number one issue. That analysis is bogus.

All that the numbers tell us is that, today, McCain supporters are far more likely to name something other than the economy as the number one issue facing the country than Obama supporters.
 
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chipmunk stew said:
.

All that the numbers tell us is that, today, McCain supporters are far more likely to name something other than the economy as the number one issue facing the country than Obama supporters.
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Ahhh....

LOL

Yes you are right *slaps forehead*

Thanks for talking me down off the ledge.
 
not_so_new said:
3) Did McCain REALLY hold a "modest lead" over Obama nationwide and was it really the market that changed this? There was an uptick after Palin was added to the ticket and the GOP convention but that luster was starting to fade before the markets fell. I think Obama was starting to pick up steam again before the Lehman Brothers collapse and I think too many people are putting too much stock in the economy and not enough stock in the rest of Obama's capabilities.
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If you watch MSNBC at all, you'll see Pat Buchanan pushing hard at this idea that McCain was winning until the financial crisis derailed him. Buchanan STILL says that Palin was a brilliant VP pick. I think he's dead wrong.
 
I assume this is pointed at me so...

David Wong said:
I'm consistently stunned by people on the left's inability to conceive of Republicans.
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I am an independent, I voted GOP in 2000 Dem in 2004 and I am all over the board on mid term elections so don't assume a bias on my part please.

They exist. Their concerns have not gone away.

They worry about high taxes.
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Which, I think Obama has made a pretty good argument that his tax plan will be better for 95% of the population...

They worry about abortion,
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Fair enough but so do the people on the other side of the argument.

and upholding their faith.
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Which Obama professes to believe in as well. And I don't think anyone is saying they can't "uphold their faith" either way but McCain is sure trying to paint Obama with that brush.

They worry about immigration. They worry about a country growing lax on national defense with rising threats from China, and Iran.
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Again which Obama has also addressed.

If anything at the very least Obama has tied McCain in toe to toe debates that include many of these same talking points. My point is that McCain shouldn't have a 60 / 36 advantage on any of these points. Even on abortion the nation is more evenly divided than 60 / 36.

They're not insane. They're not bigots. They just have a different point of view than you.
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Of COURSE THEY DO (but I would add that they have a tendency to be more bigoted but that is a separate issue). I am not a child, I understand that there are other points of view.

My point again is that I think Obama raised fair polices related to all these other issues and to give McCain a clear advantage in everything other than the economy is ludicrous.

There's a reason no Democrat has broken 50% since LBJ in 1964. This is not a Democrat country, and it isn't going to turn into one overnight.
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I agree.
 
This is interesting.....

"Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say.."

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.

"The Bradley effect has mutated. We are seeing it in several states, but the reverse effect is much stronger," said Greenwald. "We didn't have a chance to look at these effects before on a national level. The prolonged Democratic primary process this year gave us a chance to look for this effect in 32 primaries in which the same two candidates faced each other."
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