Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Latest on New Mexico ...

New Mexico (5)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)


Latest National Polls:

October 6 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 6 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 5 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 5 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)

 

[Pookster]

A few more new State polls ...

New Hampshire (4)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (53%-40%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)

Virginia (13)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 1 - Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

 

[chipmunk stew]

A few more new State polls ...

New Hampshire (4)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (53%-40%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 3 - St. Anselm/SRBI: Obama by 12 (49%-37%)

Virginia (13)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 1 - Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

I have to say, I'm absolutely stunned by these 50%+ numbers for Obama in Virginia. Is Mark Warner out there stumping for him?

 

[Pookster]

I have to say, I'm absolutely stunned by these 50%+ numbers for Obama in Virginia. Is Mark Warner out there stumping for him?

Speaking of 50%+, I missed one for Virginia ...

Virginia (13)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 1 - Mason-Dixon: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
September 30 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

 

[Pookster]

From the SurveyUSA poll in Virginia ...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

ETA:

Only 1% of the likely voters in Virginia are undecided now.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Gallup has Obama holding steady at +8 (50-42)

 

[David Wong]

Gallup has Obama holding steady at +8 (50-42)

Whoa. Put on the brakes.

There's something huge in that article:

Early voting is now open in many states, meaning that for some voters, the election is already over. -- Frank Newport

Seriously? Why aren't wall talking about this?

You realize what this means? It's not just a matter of McCain trying to close the gap by November 4, it's about him BLEEDING ACTUAL VOTES every single day he's behind. Thousands of voters are taking themselves off the table while I'm sitting here typing this.

Is early voting popular enough to be statistically significant? Are these battleground states that are doing it? If so... that totally changes this game. That means in many states, huge chunks of the people McCain is trying to convince in these next two debates have already cast their ballot.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Whoa. Put on the brakes.

There's something huge in that article:




Seriously? Why aren't wall talking about this?

You realize what this means? It's not just a matter of McCain trying to close the gap by November 4, it's about him BLEEDING ACTUAL VOTES every single day he's behind. Thousands of voters are taking themselves off the table while I'm sitting here typing this.

Is early voting popular enough to be statistically significant? Are these battleground states that are doing it? If so... that totally changes this game. That means in many states, huge chunks of the people McCain is trying to convince in these next two debates have already cast their ballot.

I know Ohio is one, which could spell real trouble for McCain because he was really hoping to flip Ohio.

 

[David Wong]

You mean it spells trouble for Obama?

He's the one trying to flip Ohio, it went red last time.

 

[Pookster]

I know Ohio is one, which could spell real trouble for McCain because he was really hoping to flip Ohio.

Ohio is a Bush State. I think you must've meant "keep" instead of "flip".


ETA: David Wong beat me to it. D'oh!

 

[aerosolben]

Is early voting popular enough to be statistically significant? Are these battleground states that are doing it?

Early voting battleground states:

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
New Mexico
Iowa

Not early voting:

Michigan
Missouri
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

(Virginia allows early voting with an excuse)

http://earlyvoting.net/states/abslaws.php

Note that Colorado is also one of 4 states with no-excuse permanent absentee voting (great for lazy voters like myself!)

ETA: NM and IA for completeness, though I don't think they're really battlegrounds at this point.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Oops! Oh yeah! Then it's even worse news for McCain than I thought. If Obama flips Ohio, then in theory he doesn't even need Florida.

 

[Malerin]

Don't read too much into it. I'm guessing a lot of early voters are die-hard Republicans and Democrats- people who had made up their minds months ago (like a lot of us here). There's still a lot of undecideds out there.

 

[Dr Adequate]

Seriously? Why aren't wall talking about this? [...] that totally changes this game. That means in many states, huge chunks of the people McCain is trying to convince in these next two debates have already cast their ballot.

Hmm. I would suspect that the people voting for Obama now are not the sort of people who might be swayed at the last minute by the sparkle of McCain's rhetoric.

They're missing out on changing their minds when Obama's discovered smoking crack with his ovine lover, but of course in that case he'd lose anyway.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Don't read too much into it. I'm guessing a lot of early voters are die-hard Republicans and Democrats- people who had made up their minds months ago (like a lot of us here). There's still a lot of undecideds out there.

Right, but the Obama campaign is taking advantage of early voting by rounding up people who generally vote in smaller numbers because they have a harder time getting to the polls on election day. It also frees up the polls somewhat on election day so they are less crowded. Crowding is more of a problem in urban centers, which are Democratic strongholds. Ohio also allows people to register and vote at the same time, and Obama is capitalizing on that. Also, whoever is in the lead during the early voting period is going to lock in more votes during that period. Finally, if Obama can get the diehards out of the way, he'll be able to focus on the undecided. Plus, he'll have a larger pool of volunteers to draw from on election day who are not tied up at the polls. I think it's a big deal. You really want to have the momentum during the early voting. It gives you a huge advantage.

 

[not_so_new]

Right, but the Obama campaign is taking advantage of early voting by rounding up people who generally vote in smaller numbers because they have a harder time getting to the polls on election day. It also frees up the polls somewhat on election day so they are less crowded. Crowding is more of a problem in urban centers, which are Democratic strongholds. Ohio also allows people to register and vote at the same time, and Obama is capitalizing on that. Also, whoever is in the lead during the early voting period is going to lock in more votes during that period. Finally, if Obama can get the diehards out of the way, he'll be able to focus on the undecided. Plus, he'll have a larger pool of volunteers to draw from on election day who are not tied up at the polls. I think it's a big deal. You really want to have the momentum during the early voting. It gives you a huge advantage.

I agree with this assessment, I have always held that the above is true but only based on my understanding of human nature, I could be way off base. Does anyone know if the above scenario actually plays out with statical analysis?

Also, as far as the early voting, does anyone know who seems to be in the lead with this election cycle? Is there a way to base projections on such as areas (urban / rural) of the most early voters or some sort of early voting poll?

Just wondering where things stand as of now because I agree, momentum is important.

 

[Pookster]

North Carolina (15)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)
October 3 - Elon: Obama by 2 (44%-42%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)


PPP (D) poll ...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_100625.pdf

Last week Obama led by two points. He is now winning 82% of the Democratic vote,
compared to just 74% a week ago. For most of the general election his share of his own
party’s vote has hovered in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.

Obama also has a 46-40 lead with independents in the state. He may have been aided by
his trip to Asheville in this poll. After trailing by an average of six points in the region
over the course of PPP’s last three polls he is leading 54-37 there this time.

He has also reached his highest percentage of the white vote in a PPP poll, at 38%. With
increased black turnout this year that’s probably good enough to take the state.

PPP surveyed 1,202 likely voters on October 4th and 5th. The survey’s margin of error is
+/-2.8%.

 

[Pookster]

CNN has Obama up by 8 (53%-45%) ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1975, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican presidential nominee would have the same policies as the current Republican president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush, up from 50 percent a month ago.

The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of President Bush.

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Whoa! Obama skyrockets to his highest RCP average ever vs McCain, 49.8 (+.5 since yesterday):

Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Spread RCP Average | 09/30 - 10/05 | -- | 49.8 | 43.6 | Obama +6.2 NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl |10/04 - 10/05|658 RV|49|43|Obama +6
CBS News |10/03 - 10/05|616 LV|48|45|Obama +3
CNN |10/03 - 10/05|694 LV|53|45|Obama +8
Gallup Tracking| 10/03 - 10/05|2744 RV|50|42|Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking |10/03 - 10/05|3000 LV|52|44|Obama +8
Hotline/FD Tracking |10/03 - 10/05|909 LV|47|41|Obama +6
Democracy Corps (D) |10/01 - 10/05|1000 LV|49|46|Obama +3
GW/Battleground Tracking |09/30 - 10/05|800 LV|50|43|Obama +7

 

[MattusMaximus]

Since we're talking about early voting, it's appropriate to mention Obama's GOTV machine, which is already on the move. The GOTV effort for Obama's campaign is going to be enormous. I think it'll likely blow away any other GOTV efforts that we've seen in quite some time.

I just read this good article today on MSNBC about how the primaries worked to his advantage, essentially allowing him to register an amazing number of new Democratic voters as well as build the organization to which Corplinx is referring...

Obama may benefit from registration gains

As the deadline for voter registration arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far outweigh any gains made by Republicans.

In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.

In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds. ...

This is even worse news for McCain and the GOP. Even if McCain/Palin can whip up the base enough with the latest "terrorist" garbage, the Republicans simply don't have the numbers. In most of the key areas this year, the Democrats just basically outnumber the Republicans - of course, the real key is going to be getting these new voters to the polls. But that's why Obama started investing so early in his GOTV organization.

I think, come Election Day, we're going to see it pay off - big time.

And, frankly, I think this voter registration & GOTV organization on Obama's part is one of the reasons why he's been consistently ahead of McCain for so long on the prediction markets.