I don't think Obama supporters should panic either, but this country does generally prefer Republican presidents. I wonder if this wasn't a situation where the undecideds gave Obama a chance but in reality were looking for any reason at all to fall back to the comfortable choice in McCain.
Look at 2004 again. Kerry leads routinely, including through July and August... until the calendar turns September. Then Bush takes the lead and never lets it go.
Now look at this year. Obama lead through summer, but ever since the calendar has flipped to September...
Bush led Kerry by about 6-7 points through September. Kerry closed that to about 2-4 points in October. In the last few days, McCain's had Obama by about 2-3 points, which, coming off a convention, is probably a peak. I'm still not worried.
The difference is that Bush opened up a 6-7 point lead through September that faded in October, and ended up winning by 1.5%. McCain's lead now seems to be closer to 3%, so a similar 4-5 point swing between now and election day would put Obama back ahead.
I've been in panic mode since December when it was apparent that it was either Hill or Obama, the two juiciest targets for the Republican war machine*. I'm still worried. Everyone's looking at poll history and I'm looking at the Dems repeated ability to shoot themselves in the foot in years when the White House is theirs for the taking. And I fear it's happening again.
Again, with Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania back "in play", the scenario is worrisome. The current "leaning to" map looks remarkably like the very successful Southern/Western strategy still holding forth.
ETA: * Oops. I forgot I'm in Politics... I'm not referring to them as NWO type war mongers. I meant it as a metaphor for "political wars".
This is a good point. Also, recall that the Democrats have registered something insane like 2 million new people in their party nationwide since the beginning of the year, and they're still going gangbusters on that, while the GOP has actually lost people. Not to mention the large number of younger voters who are enthusiastic about Obama.
As someone already noted, the real key is turnout and GOTV in the days leading up to the election. That will decide the winner more than anything, and at this stage it seems like a real wild card, but for reasons like I mentioned above I think the Dems have the advantage on this.
Despite some recent hand-wringing among some Dems, I do believe that Obama is in a much better spot now than Kerry was at this point in 2004. Here's my reasoning...
- Kerry's campaign didn't fight back against the "swift-boating" until it was too late. Obama's not making this mistake.
- Kerry was not inspiring to many Dems. Obama clearly is.
- Kerry didn't come across well in public speeches. Obama does.
- George Bush and the GOP worked with many states to ban gay marriage in 2004 which really drove up the GOTV efforts for their side. This year no such issue exists and despite the "Palin effect" the GOP base still isn't as excited as they were in 2004.
- And despite all those things stacked against Kerry and in Bush's favor, Bush still only won by one state - Ohio. And that was only by about 120,000 votes.
All in all, as an Obama supporter, I'm pretty happy right now. Especially since both Clintons are starting to stump & raise cash for Obama, and Obama's campaign is getting back on message and attacking McCain where it hurts...
For now. Wait a week. Polls can be hard to read, as many here attest.
I've been in panic mode since December when it was apparent that it was either Hill or Obama, the two juiciest targets for the Republican war machine*. I'm still worried. Everyone's looking at poll history and I'm looking at the Dems repeated ability to shoot themselves in the foot in years when the White House is theirs for the taking. And I fear it's happening again.
This attitude from some of my fellow Democrats has always pissed me off! We get a slight drop in the polls and some people start wringing their hands and lamenting that "it's over!" You act like Karl Rove is going to pull some magic wand out of his ass and wave it - "Poof!" the GOP wins!
Give me a break. Hand-wringing and worrying does absolutely nothing useful to get Obama elected. Nothing.
Do something useful instead - donate money, volunteer to phonebank, canvass, register new voters, pass on relevant info to friends & family via the Internet, write letters to papers, etc.
But don't sit around wasting your time & energy worrying! Worrying is for losers. I'm going to work to be a winner, damn it.
Again, with Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania back "in play", the scenario is worrisome. The current "leaning to" map looks remarkably like the very successful Southern/Western strategy still holding forth.
Again, that is the state of some polls now. Wait a week. The mere fact that Obama is even challenging McCain in many of those western states is a testament to the problems he's giving the GOP. In 2004, would anyone have thought that Kerry even had a chance in hell of getting those western states? No way. We are in a better spot than in 2004 - way better.
ETA: * Oops. I forgot I'm in Politics... I'm not referring to them as NWO type war mongers. I meant it as a metaphor for "political wars".
I prefer to think of it as a form of psychological warfare. They are trying to psyche you out. Don't buy into it, because if that happens to enough rank-and-file Dems then you hand them the election on a silver platter.
Hand-wringing and worrying does absolutely nothing useful to get Obama elected. Nothing.
Do something useful instead - donate money, volunteer to phonebank, canvass, register new voters, pass on relevant info to friends & family via the Internet, write letters to papers, etc.
But don't sit around wasting your time & energy worrying! Worrying is for losers. I'm going to work to be a winner, damn it.
If I could interject here, these are very good points, and good advice. I realize that JREF is a bit skewed from real world, but it does accurately mirror real world in some respects.
I see lots of action (from both sides) here recently that does not produce anything useful.
There have been many. many posts, and treasure hunts, looking for a super-powerful knockout punch on Sarah Palin, for example.
If all that time and energy would be put into hammering her and McCain about issues, issues, issues, policy, issues and issues, I think Obama would be sitting better right now.
If you want your guy Obama to win, look past the lipstick, moose-mom veneer, and go for what counts.
Same for GOP'ers: no more veteran ads to tug at heartstrings, give lipstick a rest, and concentrate on contrasting yourself with Obama, and win.
I think it's going to happen, but don't wait!
Finally, I'm hoping that not too many Democrats pay heed to your sensible approach!
Good for you and your energy. I don't have time to do all that much, but making sure I get the Democrats Abroad to vote is about as good as gets over here. I used to not bother, because I'm registered in New York and there's no way the Dems are in any danger there (and my riding is in Manhattan, so not even a concern on local issues). But, I've got expat friends here from the midwest and NJ (which is also coming far down for Obama this week), and I try to make sure I get them registered and voting. Problem is, over here the US expats are about 75% Dem, it seems. At the AmCham breakfast last election day, they took a straw poll in the room and Kerry took it in a landslide (69% to 24% with 7% not wanting to respond). As a result, they're a little complacent. The shock in that room when Kerry lost was a lesson to them, I hope. Many hadn't even cast their absentee ballots - it was going to be a cakewalk.
I'm an old activist from way back. I'm also a realist, though, and I've seen what fighting over that two foot patch of turf "in the middle" can do to Presidential campaigns. If Obama addresses the smears - good! I'd rather, though, that he addresses the genetic smear; that he stands up there and says, "Yes, I'm a Liberal. Like Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Johnson." We have a tradition of liberalism in this country and it's time for people to stop hiding from the Rush and Ann demonizers.
The last national politician I saw willing to address the country in that way was Mario Cuomo in the awesome speech at the DNC. Mobilizing the young is good. Mobilizing the 40+ warriors from the Anti-War, Civil Rights, Voter Rights and ERA fights is a winning strategy, though. Can Obama do it? It's the battle for the GOTV crowd. And it's where the Republican Southern Strategy has pulled them through every time. (This is the real danger of Pallin - not that she's a cartoon character conservative, but that she now gets the car pool drivers out there on election day - they weren't coming before, and Joe Biden ain't doing it for the Dems, so Barack's got to.)
I feel much better this evening. I asked my US magazine reading/American Idol watching/America's next top model following 16 year old daughter what she thought of Sarah Palin. She says she watched the first half of the ABC interview and Palin looked completely clueless and confused, was blathering incoherently, and sounds totally unprepared to be vice president. If she were a judge, Palin would be voted off the show.
I feel much better this evening. I asked my US magazine reading/American Idol watching/America's next top model following 16 year old daughter what she thought of Sarah Palin. She says she watched the first half of the ABC interview and Palin looked completely clueless and confused, was blathering incoherently, and sounds totally unprepared to be vice president. If she were a judge, Palin would be voted off the show.
Seems as if McCain's post convention bounce has some legs, according to www.fivethirtyeight.com:
Although we think that John McCain may still be in the midst of some sort of convention bump, so far there has been no real letting up of his improved performance in state-level polling:
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