Poll Vault

[Puppycow]

Reaction to Palin's Speech

I have to grudgingly admit that she hit it out of the park. The McCain camp has to be pinching themselves.

Then again, I remember that Kaz Matsui hit a homer on his first pitch of his first at-bat in the big leagues a few years ago, but that was the high point of his season and it was all downhill after that.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen doesn't even have the page updated. They must get an early notice. It would indicate that the numbers were very good for McCain yesterday, but wouldn't have included his speech. McCain could well be tied or in the lead tomorrow.

The page is up now. A few notes ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night.

It won't be until the Monday release of their poll that we start to see the full effect of this bounce.

 

[Pookster]

For comparison purposes, from August 28 to August 29 (Thurs-Friday), Obama gained 2 points and McCain lost two points (Obama lead by 4 points after having been tied). From yesterday to today, McCain gained 1 point and Obama lost 2. So, basically they mirror each other when it comes to a bounce in the Friday releases.

Last Saturday showed no change in the poll for either candidate. Sunday showed a 1 point gain by McCain in his numbers, and no change for Obama. It'll be interesting to see how different the results compare over the next few days. Keep in mind that this is all within the margin of error for the poll too. So, be careful interpreting too much from it (this or last weeks results).

 

[Brainster]

Pretty significant movement at InTrade. McCain, who has been stuck at 40 for most of the summer is at 44.8, while Obama, who has been above 60 since clinching the nomination is down to 55.0.

 

[Pookster]

Pretty significant movement at InTrade. McCain, who has been stuck at 40 for most of the summer is at 44.8, while Obama, who has been above 60 since clinching the nomination is down to 55.0.

It is significant, but it was to be expected. I don't doubt that there are more traders involved right now than before the conventions that are pulling the numbers back to something more reflective of the close race this has been for months now. It was never going to stay at the numbers it was at with the long established trend of the polls.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Here's the first polls showing an actual convention bump, Rasmussen has Obama's lead down to 2, according to RCP. 48-46.

That's from 9/2 to 9/4, and would have everything but McCain's speech included, since almost all of the polling yesterday would have been done beforehand.

Significantly, Obama doesn't seem to have taken a hit so far, even if McCain has gotten a bump. He's polled between 48%-50% in every poll surveyed by RCP since 8/29 (with one exception--the CBS poll giving him 42% still appears to be an outlier.)

 

[chipmunk stew]

Gallup's new numbers have Obama up by 4: 48%-44%

The CBS poll is still an outlier.

 

[BenBurch]

A little bit of a bounce showing on intrade. Right now Obama 56.5, McCain 43.2, change from aroudn 60-40 last night.

 

[BenBurch]

A little bit of a bounce showing on intrade. Right now Obama 56.5, McCain 43.2, change from aroudn 60-40 last night.

EDIT: Right after I posted McCain fell to 42.3

 

[Undesired Walrus]

But how are both doing in the electoral college? Why don't the commentators start the day with 'At current trends, Obama will secure X number of electoral votes and McCain Y'?

 

[Pookster]

Very few pollsters are doing State polls right now because of the conventions. Look for a slwe of them by Monday though.

Before the Conventions, Obama was sitting pretty good. He had all the blue States from 2004, and was very competitive (or leading) in about 5 red States. But who knows what it'll look like next week.

 

[BenBurch]

On intrade his brief bounce from earlier today has faded. Now hovering near 42.

Its over if that is all he got.

 

[Pookster]

Looking at where the poll numbers really matter, at the moment Obama has all of Kerry's States except for New Hampshire under his wing (of course, this can always change). McCain has some Bush States at big risk. Here are the ones "up for grabs" at the moment ...

Colorado (9)
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Ohio (20)
Virginia (13)


Obama starts with 251-4 = 247McCain starts with 286-9-7-5-5-20-13 = 227

Magic Numbers:
Obama - 23McCain - 43
This is based mostly on polls before the Conventions. Also, Michigan and Indiana could end up in play, but I doubt it. So, it'll be interesting to see how this goes. But, the race to 270 is on!

 

[Brainster]

Survey USA says watchers rated Palin's speech as highly as Obamas:

Survey USA polled 1061 voters who watched Palin's speech and asked them to grade it from A to F. 60 percent gave it an "A" and her average GPA was 3.1. Among Republicans, her GPA was 3.7, among independents it was 3.0, and among Democrats it was 2.2.

Obama got the same grade overall and remarkably similar numbers to Palin from the respective parties (although obviously the Democrats and Republican numbers were reversed).

Palin's speech apparently rocked with Independents; Palin went from being seen by about half of independents as a liability on the ticket to an asset by a 2-1 ratio.

 

[David Wong]

The only way Palin can be a drag on the ticket is if 1) she totally bombs at the debates or 2) one of the scandals turns out to have some kind of substance.

If she really is behind on national issues it seems like some intensive coaching could fix the debate thing. I mean, these are broad stroak questions, I'm pretty sure some of us could get through a debate if we had all of the talking points.

On the scandal stuff, I don't believe for one second the McCain campaign was just clueless about it. They've gotten assurances at some point that there's no meat there. I don't think the Republicans need to be too worried about her.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Polls suck. Prediction markets are the better way to go...

Pretty significant movement at InTrade. McCain, who has been stuck at 40 for most of the summer is at 44.8, while Obama, who has been above 60 since clinching the nomination is down to 55.0.

Intrade has now corrected to put Obama/McCain at 58.3/42.3 - which is pretty much statistically insignificant from all the other prediction markets out there.

The rough 60/40 split for Obama has held fast, factoring into account both the DNC & RNC.

Bottom Line: Obama got a bump and held it; McCain got no bump at all. McCain is in a heap of trouble.

 

[MattusMaximus]

This is based mostly on polls before the Conventions. Also, Michigan and Indiana could end up in play, but I doubt it. So, it'll be interesting to see how this goes. But, the race to 270 is on!

Did I mention that polls suck?

Some prediction markets actually break it down by Electoral College, with an individual prediction market for each state. Yahoo's Political Dashboard has a really nice one...

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

The predicted Electoral College result based upon this market (a market which has been consistent in all other ways with all the other markets I track) is as follows:

Obama - 311
McCain - 227

The state-by-state breakdown is pretty neat!

 

[MattusMaximus]

The only way Palin can be a drag on the ticket is if 1) she totally bombs at the debates or 2) one of the scandals turns out to have some kind of substance.

Wrong. She can be a drag on the GOP ticket by not only energizing her party's base, but by energizing the Democrats as well as moving more Independent women away from McCain and towards Obama. This seems to be happening, and since there are far more Democrats out there than Republicans, it spells bad news for the GOP.

Just recall how right after Palin's speech at the RNC, Obama's campaign out-raised McCain's campaign by a $10M-to-$1M margin.

No wonder McCain's campaign wasn't bragging about all the money they'd raised post-Palin. Ouch.

 

[David Wong]

Well the polling after her speech indicate she came off very well with independents, so there are at least early indications she isn't scaring swing voters away.

When did you decide that the prediction markets were more reliable than polls? Do you have data showing they're more accurate?

After all, aren't they just another form of poll?

Traditional polling has been very accurate historically, except in very close elections.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Well the polling after her speech indicate she came off very well with independents, so there are at least early indications she isn't scaring swing voters away.

This is very vague. Which polls? Be specific.

When did you decide that the prediction markets were more reliable than polls? Do you have data showing they're more accurate?

Back in February when I read an article in Scientific American explaining why they work much better and more consistently than polls.

After all, aren't they just another form of poll?

Wrong. They are very different. In a poll, you tell the pollster who you want to win, but in a prediction market you are betting your own money on who you think is going to win. The SciAm article I linked above explains it very well. It's like the difference between someone claiming to have psychic powers and someone willing to bet a lot of money that they have psychic powers. Get my drift?

Traditional polling has been very accurate historically, except in very close elections.

You really need to see this: ◊◊◊◊ You, Frank!

I would also encourage you to read "Damn Lies and Statistics" by Joel Best. It outlines just how easily polls can be manipulated and biased, either unintentionally or not. Also, talk to anyone who works on survey research professionally (I have a close friend who does this) and they'll lay it out for you as well.