Poll Vault

[Brainster]

Are you suggesting that all racists walk up and down main street with sheets on clanging a bell? Most people are pretty quiet about their political and social leanings, why should racism be any different?

It's not PC in today's age to say in polite company that you are racist, what you do in a private voting booth is a completely different matter.

Pick a poll; today's Gallup tracking poll for example. A total of 43% of those surveyed picked John McCain for president. Do you really believe that with those kinds of numbers there are a significant number of racist people out there who are too embarrassed to admit they're voting for McCain? This is not like asking a friend out by the barbecue pit what they think of that idiot Bush, where your friend might not be inclined to give you an honest answer, at least not until they've eaten.

I'd be happy to convince myself that Obama's not really up a few points in the polls, but even or down a few. That is not my sense of the race, or that of most observers I've talked to. YRMV.

ETA: I forgot to mention in my prior post that at least one of the states where Obama outperformed the polls by more than ten points was Iowa, where the caucus system may have skewed results. That's a flaw in 538's analysis.

 

[not_so_new]

Pick a poll; today's Gallup tracking poll for example. A total of 43% of those surveyed picked John McCain for president. Do you really believe that with those kinds of numbers there are a significant number of racist people out there who are too embarrassed to admit they're voting for McCain? This is not like asking a friend out by the barbecue pit what they think of that idiot Bush, where your friend might not be inclined to give you an honest answer, at least not until they've eaten.

I'd be happy to convince myself that Obama's not really up a few points in the polls, but even or down a few. That is not my sense of the race, or that of most observers I've talked to. YRMV.

After rereading your original post I feel I read it wrong the first time. My apologies, point taken and I agree.

On a slightly different note, I still contend that the reply to the question "does race matter to you" can be completely different than the end result in the voting booth.

Be happy, I think this is really helping McCain. If it were not for Obama's race I believe this would be a blow out election for the Dems (which I think speaks volumes about Obama that he can be a black man and actually keep up).

This is also one of the reasons why I think this election cycle CRITICAL on many issues.

Among other things this is key for race relations in the US. If there was ever a time where a black man had a chance to blow the doors of race BS in this country it's with this election. He gets a vote cushion from the anti-GOP movement that he can afford to lose because of his race. After one back man is in race no longer becomes an issue for POUS.

Sorry for the off topic everyone. Back to your regularly scheduled program.

 

[gdnp]

CNN has Obama up in Iowa and Minnesota, but only a 2 point lead in Ohio

In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Wednesday afternoon, 55 percent of Iowa registered voters who were questioned said that Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 40 percent backing McCain, R-Arizona. That's more than double the lead Obama had in a University of Iowa poll taken early last month.

It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.

The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.

It looks like a very different story in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes up for grabs....

The poll suggests that Obama has a 2-point lead over McCain, 47 percent to 45 percent, which is a virtual tie when taking into account the survey's 3.5-percentage-point sampling error.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen still has it at five (50%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech last night.

The media isn't scoring well regarding Palin ...

Last night’s polling shows that, by a ten-to-one margin, voters believe reporters are trying to hurt Palin’s campaign rather than help. Republicans and unaffiliated voters strongly believe that a double standard is being applied to Palin because she is a woman. Democrats disagree.

I don't necessarily see this translating into anything, but time will tell.

Regarding experience ...

Perhaps most stunning is that, among unaffiliated voters, just 42% believe Obama has better experience than Palin to be President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say Palin has the edge on experience. Again, most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Palin’s well-received speech last night.

 

[David Wong]

Rasmussen still has it at five (50%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll




The media isn't scoring well regarding Palin ...



I don't necessarily see this translating into anything, but time will tell.

Regarding experience ...

That's not stunning at all. Voters know absolutely nothing about her. As we just pointed out, the information that comes out about a candidate takes days and weeks to sink in, as it makes its way around the water coolers. The people saying she has more experience than Obama are basing it off of months of GOP ads hammering the idea that Obama has no experience, and the following assumption that Palin must have more.

Like if Toyota ran a year-long campaign about how Fords are unreliable, and then some new car maker came onto the market, you'd have early surveys saying the new car is more reliable than the Ford. They just assume that because those darned Fords are so unreliable that ANYTHING must be better, even the unknown quantity.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up to a seven point lead today (49%-42%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110032/Gallup-Daily-Dent-Obama-Lead-Far.aspx

The vast majority of interviews on Wednesday evening were conducted before Sarah Palin gave her much-anticipated convention speech. However, the data do indicate that the initial first two nights of the convention -- the slimmed down Monday program in deference to Hurricane Gustav and Tuesday's speeches headlined by former senator Fred Thompson -- have, so far, done little to change voter preferences.

 

[David Wong]

It was on the polling from the 27th (3rd day of the convention) where Obama saw his bounce, but that was a direct result of Hillary telling her voters it was ok to support Obama. It's probably not fair to expect anything from the first two days of the GOP convention to have that same direct effect because you don't have the same dynamic there.

I'd say their equivalent of the Hillary speech is Palin's speech last night, so tomorrow and Saturday's updates should show a bounce.

McCain has to come out and reassure voters who are nervous about more Bush, he's got to take the same centrist approach as Obama, and he has to hit on the economy.

The criticism so far has been that the Republicans are almost re-running the 2004 campaign (hammering terrorism, national security and an elitist opponent) but the dynamics are completely different, terror has plummeted on the list of voter concerns and the economy has skyrocketed.

I assume his speech writers know that though.

 

[Pookster]

I agree. I think we won't begin seeing the bounce until tomorrow or possibly Saturday. Monday/Tuesday should be the day we see how much of a bounce it will be.

 

[gdnp]

If the portrait painted of Palin last night is the one that sticks with the voters she will be trouble for Obama. Of course, they have the problem that they cannot attack her directly without seeming ungentlemanly. I think the charges that she has been treated unfairly because she is a woman ring hollow. Dan Quayle took similar heat on experience.

The question is whether anyone on the Democratic side can challenge her directly. Hillary would be the obvious candidate, as it would be hard for Palin to respond without alienating the Clinton supporters she is supposed to be wooing. I still think there is too much bad blood between Clinton and Obama for her to take on this role.

 

[not_so_new]

If the portrait painted of Palin last night is the one that sticks with the voters she will be trouble for Obama. Of course, they have the problem that they cannot attack her directly without seeming ungentlemanly. I think the charges that she has been treated unfairly because she is a woman ring hollow. Dan Quayle took similar heat on experience.

The question is whether anyone on the Democratic side can challenge her directly. Hillary would be the obvious candidate, as it would be hard for Palin to respond without alienating the Clinton supporters she is supposed to be wooing. I still think there is too much bad blood between Clinton and Obama for her to take on this role.

I would agree if it were not for the fact that Hillary has a special interest in not seeing Palin as the first woman in the White House.

I say that Clinton is 50 - 50 to take up this fight (the odds would be much less if not for the point above). And, as much as I don't really like Hillary I believe she would mop the floor with Palin.

 

[Jimbo07]

The question is whether anyone on the Democratic side can challenge her directly. Hillary would be the obvious candidate, as it would be hard for Palin to respond without alienating the Clinton supporters she is supposed to be wooing. I still think there is too much bad blood between Clinton and Obama for her to take on this role.

Funny... I was thinking this exact thing... time to unleash the Hillary!

 

[Jimbo07]

Sorry 'bout the double post, but Wangler posted a poll outside of here...

In three days, McCain closed an
8 point lead?

seems kinda inconsistent...

 

[chipmunk stew]

Sorry 'bout the double post, but Wangler posted a poll outside of here...

In three days, McCain closed an
8 point lead?

seems kinda inconsistent...

So far it's an outlier. Gallup has Obama up 49%-42% during the same period, with a larger sample set. We'll see how it pans out over the next few days.

 

[Pookster]

So far it's an outlier. Gallup has Obama up 49%-42% during the same period, with a larger sample set. We'll see how it pans out over the next few days.

It's a big outlier among the polls that have come out the past day or so. Who knows though? I expect the numbers to tighten up significantly. Neither has stayed far from the ranges they were scoring in the past 2-3 months. By Monday, I expect it to be about even (where it was several weeks ago) in most national polls.

 

[Brainster]

Sorry 'bout the double post, but Wangler posted a poll outside of here...

In three days, McCain closed an
8 point lead?

seems kinda inconsistent...

835 adults, 734 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% on the adults and +/- 4% on the registered voters.

Interesting detail here about methodology:

Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones.

 

[BenBurch]

The polls that show a bump are polls of registered voters. The polls that show no bump are polls of likely voters. I think that is significant.

EDIT: Prediction markets mostly flat, BTW. No bump there at all. We'll see how they react to the polls that come out at mid-day today, but it looks like those who have money on this were unimpressed.

 

[Pookster]

Interesting detail here about methodology:

Gallup does the same with their daily poll (and others probably too) ...

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

They can't use an auto-dialer though for cell phones. That's likely why Rasmussen doesn't include cell phones in their polling.

 

[David Wong]

Here's the first polls showing an actual convention bump, Rasmussen has Obama's lead down to 2, according to RCP. 48-46.

That's from 9/2 to 9/4, and would have everything but McCain's speech included, since almost all of the polling yesterday would have been done beforehand.

 

[Jimbo07]

Here's the first polls showing an actual convention bump, Rasmussen has Obama's lead down to 2, according to RCP. 48-46.

That's good... if it were already a blow-out for Obama, we wouldn't have anything to squabble about for the next two months... I mean just look at the poll I posted in the Canada thread... I vote no contest...

 

[Pookster]

Here's the first polls showing an actual convention bump, Rasmussen has Obama's lead down to 2, according to RCP. 48-46.

That's from 9/2 to 9/4, and would have everything but McCain's speech included, since almost all of the polling yesterday would have been done beforehand.

Rasmussen doesn't even have the page updated. They must get an early notice. It would indicate that the numbers were very good for McCain yesterday, but wouldn't have included his speech. McCain could well be tied or in the lead tomorrow.