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Obama's RCP average vs McCain is at an all-time high today (48.8%):



This is the first average taken in which all the polls surveyed took place after Obama's acceptance speech. This would suggest a statistically significant convention bounce.

The graph also suggests that the combo of the Dem convention plus the Palin announcement has been a wash so far for McCain, as his averages have continued to hover right around where he was just before the Dem convention.
 
David Wong said:
CBS news has Obama up by 8:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug08bPostDemConv.pdf

Again, Registered Voters. Its the Likely Voters polls that show it tied.
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Regarding the Palin effect ...


But few voters say that having Palin on the Republican ticket will change their vote much. Just 13% say they are more likely to vote for McCain as a result of having Palin on the ticket, while about as many say they are less likely to do so.
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At this point, it seems to be a wash when it comes to Palin. I suspect this is why we've seen little change in the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls over the weekend. As more gets known about her this week through the Convention and media coverage, it'll be interesting to see if this changes.


ETA:

The Biden effect ...


The choice of Senator Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket also affects few voters. But in those cases where it does matter, Biden’s presence has a greater net positive impact than Palin’s; 15% are more likely to vote for Obama as a result, and just 4% are less likely to do so. One in five independents say the choice of Biden will make them more likely to vote for Obama.
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BenBurch said:
Without the support of Democrats in fairly large numbers, McSame cannot win.
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Yeah it looks like Democrats have about a 6-point lead over Republicans (meaning number of voters who identify themselves as such) so if both guys get 85% of their party, Obama wins.

These are still very narrow margins though and if McCain gets the same convention bounce Obama got, we'll be back tied again in a week.
 
David Wong said:
Yeah it looks like Democrats have about a 6-point lead over Republicans (meaning number of voters who identify themselves as such) so if both guys get 85% of their party, Obama wins.

These are still very narrow margins though and if McCain gets the same convention bounce Obama got, we'll be back tied again in a week.
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Don't forget about the independents. They're a pretty good chunk of the electorate too. Obama holds an edge with them right now, but things could change.
 
David Wong said:
Yeah it looks like Democrats have about a 6-point lead over Republicans (meaning number of voters who identify themselves as such) so if both guys get 85% of their party, Obama wins.

These are still very narrow margins though and if McCain gets the same convention bounce Obama got, we'll be back tied again in a week.
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I'll bet you a malt from the Steak-n-Shake that it does not tie up again.
 
Gallup has Obama up by 8 again (50%-42%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

Obama hits 50% for the first time ...

Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
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Also ...

At 8%, the percentage of undecided voters is slightly lower than the 9% to 11% figures seen for most of August, and this is the lowest this figure has been since early June. This, in part, reflects movement of voters toward Obama over the course of the Democratic National Convention, a lead which has been sustained in subsequent days.
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BenBurch said:
I'm just not seeing them getting a true bounce at all.
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We'll have to see - I recall Republicans predicting a negative Obama bounce because of the Clintons, which didn't happen either. In fact, I just saw Brainster say that the Democrats didn't get a 'real' bounce from their convention (you have a weasel word of your own in "true").
 
aerosolben said:
We'll have to see - I recall Republicans predicting a negative Obama bounce because of the Clintons, which didn't happen either. In fact, I just saw Brainster say that the Democrats didn't get a 'real' bounce from their convention (you have a weasel word of your own in "true").
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Well, I insert that because this is a noisy signal. A slight bump up or down in a given set of polls may only be due to people declining to be polled to watch "Project Runway" who otherwise might have responded.

What I really expect is that McCain will drop on this convention.
 
I'm guessing that Dukakis had a 10 point lead on Bush I at this stage of the race, and ended up getting slaughtered. I think Obama is a more formidable candidate and better vetted. I still worry that he will fall short of the polls on election day. Was it South Dakota where he was supposed to be tied with Hillary and ended up losing by 10 points?

Then again, I tend to be a pessimist about these things.
 
David Wong said:
Rasmussen has Obama up by 6, 51 to 45. The best showing ever for Obama:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But now let's see what the Republicans do with their convention.
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Rasmussen has it at five today (50%-45%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama lost three points after the Joe Biden selection was announced and McCain lost two points after Palin was announced.

Obama then enjoyed a fairly typical bounce from his convention and it remains to be seen how what kind of bounce McCain will get.
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Gallup has Obama up by 6 today (49%-43%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

A review of last week's tracking during the Democratic convention shows that Obama did not begin to show major gains until the tracking averages reported on Thursday, covering the first three nights of the Denver convention. So it is possible that any potential McCain convention bounce may not be evident for a few days.
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I don't expect to see the full impact of a McCain convention bounce until Monday results at the earliest.
 
gdnp said:
I'm guessing that Dukakis had a 10 point lead on Bush I at this stage of the race, and ended up getting slaughtered. I think Obama is a more formidable candidate and better vetted. I still worry that he will fall short of the polls on election day. Was it South Dakota where he was supposed to be tied with Hillary and ended up losing by 10 points?

Then again, I tend to be a pessimist about these things.
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Five Thirty Eight took a pretty good look at "The Bradley Effect" and concluded that on average Obama did better than the pollsters predicted in the primaries. Clinton's biggest upset was clearly the one we all remember (New Hampshire 8.9 percentage points better than anticipated). Obama had six states where he did nine points or better than expected and overall on average he exceeded his predicted margin of victory by 3.3 percentage points.

Of course, this is not to say that there may not be an opposite effect in the general election. But I've always felt that the Bradley effect never made much sense. Let me get this straight; racists are embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they won't vote for a black guy, so they tell the pollsters that in fact they are planning on voting for the black guy?

That said, I do think the fact that Obama is still in the single-digit lead territory indicates that he's a long way from wrapping this thing up.
 
Brainster said:
Let me get this straight; racists are embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they won't vote for a black guy, so they tell the pollsters that in fact they are planning on voting for the black guy?
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Are you suggesting that all racists walk up and down main street with sheets on clanging a bell? Most people are pretty quiet about their political and social leanings, why should racism be any different?

It's not PC in today's age to say in polite company that you are racist, what you do in a private voting booth is a completely different matter.
 
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