Poll Vault

[Pookster]

In all seriousness, if you believe in anti-Republican media bias, you have to worry. A hurricane battering New Orleans while the Republicans are giving speeches would draw a parallel to Katrina that no reporter could resist pointing out.

Again, and again, and again.

Bush on vacation during Katrina. The Republicans partying during Gustav. Not the best timing.

Doesn't Bush speak at the Convention on Tuesday?

ETA: Bush speaks Monday night.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Bush on vacation during Katrina. The Republicans partying during Gustav. Not the best timing.

Doesn't Bush speak at the Convention on Tuesday?

ETA: Bush speaks Monday night.

Reports that Bush may cancel...

 

[Pookster]

Reports that Bush may cancel...

I think the Republicans would like to see him cancel ... Gustav or not.

 

[gdnp]

I think the Republicans would like to see him cancel ... Gustav or not.

it would be a convenient excuse. There would be the inevitable comparisons to the vacation during Katrina, but the Republicans clearly do not wish this election to be a referendum on a president with a 30% approval rating. I suspect even those who still support him realize the benefit of keeping McCain as far from him as possible, except in those places he is still popular.

 

[David Wong]

Rasmussen showing the bounce now, Obama by 4:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Not a huge lead for sure, but it is there.

 

[aerosolben]

Bush on vacation during Katrina. The Republicans partying during Gustav. Not the best timing.

If the Democrats can get shots of Obama and Biden engaged in some sort of hurricane aid activity while the convention is going, that'd be political gold.

 

[Pookster]

If the Democrats can get shots of Obama and Biden engaged in some sort of hurricane aid activity while the convention is going, that'd be political gold.

Gallup has it up to 8 points now (49%-41%). Tomorrow will likely be the peak of the bump as it will take in the Obama speech. The Palin effect will also figure in a little with the poll that comes out tomorrow.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/109933/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Stretches-Lead-Points.aspx

 

[gdnp]

The early results do not seem to support McCain getting much of a bounce from women over his choice of Palin:

The first national polls on John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin yesterday came out today from Rasmussen and Gallup -- and contrary to what the GOP probably hoped, she scored less well with women than men.

Here's a finding from Gallup: Among Democratic women -- including those who may be disappointed that Hillary Clinton did not win the Democratic nomination -- 9% say Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, 15% less likely.

From Rasmussen: Some 38% of men said they were more likely to vote for McCain now, but only 32% of women. By a narrow 41% to 35% margin, men said she was not ready to be president -- but women soundly rejected her, 48% to 25%.

Only 9% of Obama supporters said they might be more likely to vote for McCain.

Overall, voters expressed a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin, but there was a severe gender gap on this: Men embraced her at 58% to 23%, while for women it was 48/30.

And by a 29/44 margin, men and women together, they do not believe that she is ready to be President.

I find that both men and women believe she is not ready to be president particularly damning.

That's the lowest vote of confidence in a running mate since the elder George Bush chose then-Indiana senator Dan Quayle to join his ticket in 1988. In comparison, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was seen as qualified by 57%-18% after Democrat Barack Obama chose him as a running mate last week.....

Whether Palin's ratings will improve or worsen over time will depend a lot on her performance. Welcome to the big leagues. Not much time for a honeymoon.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Bush on vacation during Katrina. The Republicans partying during Gustav. Not the best timing.

How long did Bush stay in Texas after the storm hit NO?

 

[Pookster]

It looks like whatever bounce Obama got has peaked. But if you look at the daily poll trends at Rasmussen and Gallup, the scores are on the high/low edges of the ranges they've been in for months now. Forgetting about Gustav for now, I expect the numbers to move back by this time next week to basically where they were before the Democratic Convention, and within the same established ranges.

Now for the party crasher, Gustav. It's obvious the Republicans will change their Convention somewhat. The media won't be focusing solely on the Republicans like they were for the Democrats. Images of Katrina and comparisons to it are likely to be the order of the day for much of the next three or four days. The Palin factor is still in play. I think it's going to be next to impossible to determine how to attribute the changes in the polls next week because of all of this.

 

[gdnp]

NPR said this morning that Bush would not be attending tomorrow because of Gustav. Convenient excuse, IMHO, as the Dem strategy seems to be to tie McCain as tightly to Bush as possible.

ETA: CNN confirms neither Bush nor Cheney will attend. LOL

 

[Pookster]

NPR said this morning that Bush would not be attending tomorrow because of Gustav. Convenient excuse, IMHO, as the Dem strategy seems to be to tie McCain as tightly to Bush as possible.

ETA: CNN confirms neither Bush nor Cheney will attend. LOL

I knew Cheney wouldn't weeks ago. There's still mention of an appearance via satellite for Bush.

You can already see the effect Gustav is having on the media. Where the Democrats got to lay the foundation for their convention last weekend, the Republicans have been forced to tone down the rhetoric. It's also taken Palin out of the spotlight quite a bit. What I have seen is a whole lot of Katrina being talked about. It's stuff like this that is going to make reading the polls over the next week very tricky.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 6 today (48%-42%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx

As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.

Also concerning Palin ...

Given that the immediate reaction by national voters to Palin was very similar to their first reaction to Biden -- mildly positive but also with a high degree of uncertainty about each -- it may not be surprising if the publicity surrounding her announcement also does not produce an immediate bounce in support for McCain.

 

[Brainster]

Zogby:

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

In other words, the race is a dead heat.

It's Zogby, so take it with a teaspoon of salt. Zogby's prior poll had McCain up by five, so you can argue that this represents a decline.

2020 likely voters, error margin +/- 2.2%

Zogby also found that more voters thought the Palin pick helped the McCain campaign than felt that way about Biden, although they also found that more voters felt that Palin hurts McCain, so that on net, the two picks were roughly considered equal in terms of helping or hurting the campaign (Palin was +23%, Biden +21%).

It does indicate that if Obama got a real bounce out of the convention, it's fairly limited.

ETA: Some interesting observations at the bottom of that page:

The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.

 

[Pookster]

It does indicate that if Obama got a real bounce out of the convention, it's fairly limited.

That's basically what I see with the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. The basic trends and polling ranges are the same as they've been for months now. I seriously doubt we'll see any change in them for now.

 

[Brainster]

CNN says Obama +1:

“The convention — and particularly Obama's speech — seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces — assuming that either one created a bounce at all,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

This seems a bit premature:

“If McCain was hoping to boost his share of the women's vote, it didn't work,” Holland said.

You mean that picking a woman didn't instantly swing women to McCain's campaign? What's wrong with those women anyway?



927 registered voters, +/- 3%.

 

[Pookster]

This seems a bit premature:

I agree. I forget which poll I was reading (CNN or Gallup), but it indicated that most people didn't really know much about her yet. And with all the coverage of Gustav the past few days, it may not be until her convention appearance that she gets the full blast of the media spotlight. Her favorably rating is a little higher than Biden's at the moment though.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen isn't showing any change today ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Those figures are unchanged from yesterday and little changed over the past several days

Either the Palin bounce offset part of the Convention bounce, or there hasn't been a Palin bounce yet.

 

[Pookster]

An article discussing the Palin bounce ...


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26495571/

The Gallup Organization called 898 registered voters Friday night and found that most voters had "never heard" of Palin (51 percent) or could not offer an opinion (20 percent). The few that had heard of Palin were mostly positive: 22 percent rated her favorably, 7 percent unfavorably.

On the same night, Rasmussen Reports called 1,000 "likely voters" using its automated methodology and obtained a very different result. Four of five voters were able to offer an opinion: 53 percent rated Palin favorably, 28 percent rated her unfavorably, only 18 percent said they were unfamiliar, and 2 percent were unsure.

So, as of Friday night, the percentage of Americans who knew Palin well enough to rate her was either 29 or 71 percent.

Right.

Why the big difference?

Interesting discussion about the polling methods of both Gallup and Rasmussen.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup still has Obama up by 6 today (49%-43%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109954/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-49-43.aspx

Comparing Obama's current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.

Gallup does see a two point bounce in McCain's polling since the Palin announcement (from 41% to 43%). Obama's announcement of Biden saw a two point drop. Gallup's view of this is ...

... from a statistical standpoint, both shifts are within the margin of sampling error, and thus not significant.