Poll Vault

[Brainster]

First post-Biden poll out by CNN: Not even a dead-cat bounce:

It’s a dead heat in the race for the White House. The first national poll conducted entirely after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and Republican rival John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.

“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

1023 adults (not even registered voters) sampled 8/23 and 8/24. Error margin +/- 3.5%.

Obama has this week to make his case. The polls should show significant movement towards him over the next seven days.

 

[chipmunk stew]

What's a "dead-cat bounce"?

 

[Pookster]

Obama has this week to make his case. The polls should show significant movement towards him over the next seven days.

There's an interesting article about the convention bounce that might occur this year at this link ...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

A few things from the article - the conventions are being held very late in the election year, and there has never been a back-to-back (within 7 days of each other) situation as this year. There is speculation the bounce could be rather muted for both candidates because of this.

Our default expectation is that Barack Obama will get a decent-sized but short-lived bounce, which will quickly be compromised by the start of the Republican convention. However, the Republicans' bounce might not be as big as it otherwise would be, because there may still be some lingering afterglow from the Democratic convention.

I suspect a lot will depend on how the conventions go over. With the conventions seeming to be just a two week show, will Obama be a tough act to follow or not. Time will tell.

 

[Brainster]

What's a "dead-cat bounce"?

It's a Wall Street term. A lot of times a stock that has suffered a steep decline in value will momentarily go up as traders begin to suspect it may be undervalued again. I guess the theory is that if you throw a dead cat out a 20-story window it will bounce, but not much.

 

[Brainster]

Gallup confirms no Biden bounce, possibly even a Biden slump:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Three day rolling average of 2684 registered voters; +/- 2%.

 

[WildCat]

Gallup confirms no Biden bounce, possibly even a Biden slump:



Three day rolling average of 2684 registered voters; +/- 2%.

I didn't think an Obama move to the left (which selecting Biden certainy was) after all that work trying to position himself in the center was a good idea.

 

[Brainster]

I didn't think an Obama move to the left (which selecting Biden certainy was) after all that work trying to position himself in the center was a good idea.

Gallup offers some evidence to back you up:

Within the Democratic Party, Obama's losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

 

[David Wong]

The Biden slump is almost certainly angry Hillary people jumping ship after seeing she didn't get the nod.

It doesn't matter though, because Obama has come roaring back with a 3-point bounce in today's Gallup poll, from being down two to up one! Wow! That's starting to brush the upper limits of being statistically significant! Almost!

I haven't done the math yet, but I'm pretty sure a bounce that size is entirely due to a dozen people saying PLEASE STOP CALLING ME.

 

[David Wong]

Whoops, make it an eight-point bounce. Gallup has Obama now up by 6, after being down 2:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx


Of course the Republicans have their own convention coming so they'll likely offset that.

I predict that after the dust is settled, Obama will be up by three points.

 

[Pookster]

Whoops, make it an eight-point bounce. Gallup has Obama now up by 6, after being down 2:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx


Of course the Republicans have their own convention coming so they'll likely offset that.

I predict that after the dust is settled, Obama will be up by three points.

From the article ...

There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden

It'll be interesting to see how things look with Friday's release. After tomorrow though, things will be harder to discern, especially if McCain announces his VP pick tomorrow.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen isn't seeing the same kind of bounce ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%

Actually, the Gallup tracking poll isn't really showing anything new ... yet. The numbers put Obama and McCain pretty much in the range they've been scoring in for over two months. But it is the high and low extremes of those ranges. Tomorrow's polls should be very interesting.

 

[Pookster]

Reading the Gallup article further, an interesting tidbit caught my eye. I won't quote it since I've already quoted so much, but it mentions a potential media party crasher for the Republican Convention. He goes by the name of ... Gustav.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Reading the Gallup article further, an interesting tidbit caught my eye. I won't quote it since I've already quoted so much, but it mentions a potential media party crasher for the Republican Convention. He goes by the name of ... Gustav.

Dude, that would so suck.

Do you think Christian Conservatives would see it as a sign from God?

 

[gdnp]

If Gustav makes it to Minnesota, I will take it as a sign from God!

 

[David Wong]

If Gustav makes it to Minnesota, I will take it as a sign from God!

In all seriousness, if you believe in anti-Republican media bias, you have to worry. A hurricane battering New Orleans while the Republicans are giving speeches would draw a parallel to Katrina that no reporter could resist pointing out.

Again, and again, and again.

 

[gdnp]

This is true. Although the local and state Democrats share as much of the blame for the Katrina debacle, the Republicans do not want such a distraction, especially if it casts a pall on their party.

 

[David Wong]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26447383

Whoa. Talk of rescheduling the convention.

I say no way. That'd be a logistical nightmare.

 

[gdnp]

Reschedule a convention? Bush didn't even cut short his vacation for Katrina.

 

[Pookster]

If Gustav makes it to Minnesota, I will take it as a sign from God!

If Gustav makes it to Louisiana, he won't have to go to Minnesota. Minnesota (the media) will go to him.

 

[Pookster]

Dude, that would so suck.

Do you think Christian Conservatives would see it as a sign from God?

Backlash for not picking Huckabee maybe?

Gustav, potentially, adds a whole level of drama that will make reading the polls next week all the more difficult. You can see the effects on the media already today.