Russia invades Georgia

[Magtor]

THere was no need to Godwin this thread.

(Not upset with you, Wire, it's just that this constant reference to Adolf and his chums is mental laziness at work. )

DR

You can accuse the Swedish foreign minister of many things, but mental laziness is not one of them. However, you can read his own words to form your own opinion: http://carlbildt.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/the-principles-at-stake/

IMO, the Hitler reference was more of a [you are stupid and we don't like it when you behave like this] in diplo-speak, from the Swedish government, to the Russian one.

 

[Oliver]

They won't like the timing coïnciding with their Great Moment of the Olympics, but otherwise they have no reason to care.

According to the article [Thank you, Childlike] they seem to do just that. But I'm not going down this "gas pipeline" since it could be considered as being off-topic...

On a more related, quite sad note:
We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

 

[CapelDodger]

At least we've been smart enough to keep Georgia out of NATO.

Fortunately there's a European side of the North Atlantic, and fantasies about treaty obligatons in the frickin' Caucasus get short shrift over here.

That's why the US-Georgia relationship has been bi-lateral (triangulated by Israel), and the embarrassment is entirely Washington's.

 

[Uzzy]

What do you base that on?

And it's not Georgia's territory - its the South Ossetians' territory.

Going by some reports, it would appear that both sides were shooting each other in the days leading up to the 8th. This report shows that fighting was taking place on the 1st. Both sides accuse each other of starting it, but given that Georgia had (surprisingly, I might add) been working on developing South Ossetia's autonomous status since July last year, I don't see why they'd invade.

The Russians attacked the Georgian army and drove it out (almost) of South Ossetia.

And are still attacking areas INSIDE Georgia, even after Georgia is calling for a Ceasefire. The Russians are also putting troops inside Abkhazia. They are still attacking airbases, both military and the international airport in Tbilisi. Their foreign minster called for Saakashvili to go.

This isn't about defending the Russian citizens in South Ossetia. Never was. This is about regime change, pure and simple, and with that, control over the Georgian pipelines.

"And can we have some more free toys from NATA, please?"

I sure hope NATO pulls it's thumb out and actually starts helping those nations, along with Georgia. Putin might be a chessmaster, but hell, we in the West need to stand up to him. We've beaten Russian chessmasters before.

It's always like that when the bombs are dropping, but in the drab days after the conflict people start to wonder what it was all for, especially if they lost. Look what happened to Milosevic.

Oh quite.

War never is, IMO, but Saakashvili and his entourage clearly think differently.

As does Putin.

 

[ddt]

This was a video i found on youtube of the situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhyZjNApBg

What do you think of what this young man has to say?
Any truth?
Is Russia really on the moral high-ground in this situation?

Its a different perspective outside of our local News Media. (CNN NBC ect...)

Yes, he is right. One nitpick about what he says: he says that "ethnic cleansing" is genocide. It's not.

Genocide is, originally, trying to kill a whole ethnic group. Nowadays, mass murder - on ethnic grounds - is also considered genocide. So, not only what the Nazis did to the Jews, but also, e.g., Srebrenica counts as genocide.

Ethnic cleansing means that you drive out the people belonging to another group. The term first was used in the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, and it was widely practiced there: the various ethnic groups in Bosnia that were driven out of the other's territory, or the Serbs of the Krajina, to name a couple of examples.

 

[egslim]

Going by some reports, it would appear that both sides were shooting each other in the days leading up to the 8th. This report shows that fighting was taking place on the 1st. Both sides accuse each other of starting it, but given that Georgia had (surprisingly, I might add) been working on developing South Ossetia's autonomous status since July last year, I don't see why they'd invade.

Maybe some Georgian factions that opposed South Ossetia's autonomous status wanted to kill it off.

And are still attacking areas INSIDE Georgia, even after Georgia is calling for a Ceasefire. The Russians are also putting troops inside Abkhazia. They are still attacking airbases, both military and the international airport in Tbilisi. Their foreign minster called for Saakashvili to go.

The Russians would be stupid not to. By attacking South Ossetia Georgia gave them a great excuse to strike back, now they're going to milk it as much as possible. No sane Georgian government is going to give them that chance ever again.

This isn't about defending the Russian citizens in South Ossetia. Never was. This is about regime change, pure and simple, and with that, control over the Georgian pipelines.

The two are not mutually exclusive. Defending Russian citizens is one important goal, making use of the opportunity to advance their strategic interests another.

I sure hope NATO pulls it's thumb out and actually starts helping those nations, along with Georgia. Putin might be a chessmaster, but hell, we in the West need to stand up to him. We've beaten Russian chessmasters before.

And what do you suggest NATO does? Be specific. We need Russian logistical support in Afghanistan and their political support against Iranian nuclear ambitions. We also need their oil and gas. And the Caucasus is far out of NATO's logistical reach, but bordering Russia.

There's not a damned thing we can do to protect Georgia. Russia holds all the cards, that's why it was so stupid of Georgia to bet on US support, and for the US to give it. Now they both look like blundering fools. And deservedly so.

 

[CapelDodger]

We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians[

Oh my.

It's hard to keep quid pro quo out of this argument, and it does put the Georgian contingent in Iraq in a new perspective. Three thousand Georgian troops, paid for by the US, as quo, and the US going to war with Russia at the Georgians' time of choosing as quid. It's hard to see the Georgians as "stalwart allies in the war on terrorism" in that harsh light.

Remember back in '03 when the Coalition to Sort-Out Iraq By Christmas boasted so many members? Georgia was one of them
.

[Interviewer to Putin] "What about the Georgians?"

[Putin] "**** the Georgians."

[Interviewer] "What about the South Ossetians?"

[Putin] "**** the South Ossetians."

[Interviewere]" So what's the difference?"

[Putin] "Don't **** the South Ossetians on my watch."

 

[egslim]

On a more related, quite sad note:
We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

Why do you think Georgia, a small, poor country with enough internal problems of its own, sent 2,000 soldiers to Iraq? I bet they calculated it would secure them US support in case of a conflict with Russia.
Which was quite a dumb calculation on their part. History has demonstrated over and over again that international politics just doesn't work that way.

Georgia planned to use the US, while the US planned to use Georgia. Forgive me for feeling little sympathy for either in this case.

 

[ddt]

Going by some reports, it would appear that both sides were shooting each other in the days leading up to the 8th. This report shows that fighting was taking place on the 1st. Both sides accuse each other of starting it, but given that Georgia had (surprisingly, I might add) been working on developing South Ossetia's autonomous status since July last year, I don't see why they'd invade.

Note that the article you cite about the autonomous status mentions that this move heavily favoured the pro-Georgian faction inside South Ossetia.

There was indeed some fighting before the 8th. But by all accounts, Georgia launched an all-out offensive on the 8th, which cost over 1,000 civilian lives and a dozen or so Russian peacekeepers.

And are still attacking areas INSIDE Georgia, even after Georgia is calling for a Ceasefire. The Russians are also putting troops inside Abkhazia. They are still attacking airbases, both military and the international airport in Tbilisi. Their foreign minster called for Saakashvili to go.

Russia picked up from the Lebanon 2006 war that when the underlying party begs for a ceasefire, you should at least go on for two more days with some more bombing. If Georgia feels slighted, it should send the tab to Washington and Jerusalem.

This isn't about defending the Russian citizens in South Ossetia. Never was. This is about regime change, pure and simple, and with that, control over the Georgian pipelines.

Whatever regime Georgia will have after this cools down, they will have learned that you must not ◊◊◊◊ with Moscow. But why couldn't Moscow also care about the Ossetians?

I sure hope NATO pulls it's thumb out and actually starts helping those nations, along with Georgia. Putin might be a chessmaster, but hell, we in the West need to stand up to him. We've beaten Russian chessmasters before.

Cold war rhetoric.

 

[CapelDodger]

Going by some reports, it would appear that both sides were shooting each other in the days leading up to the 8th.

I could have sworn I asked about Georgian villages getting attacked by speratists, but it's late, I could be wrong.

This report shows that fighting was taking place on the 1st. Both sides accuse each other of starting it, but given that Georgia had (surprisingly, I might add) been working on developing South Ossetia's autonomous status since July last year, I don't see why they'd invade.

The Georgians started it by invading South Ossetia. A plain and simple fact.

And are still attacking areas INSIDE Georgia, even after Georgia is calling for a Ceasefire. The Russians are also putting troops inside Abkhazia. They are still attacking airbases, both military and the international airport in Tbilisi. Their foreign minster called for Saakashvili to go.

The Russians have been attacking military targets. They haven't attacked power stations, water supplies, or civilian communications. It's not exactly Shock and Awe, is it? It's more "Here's a slap, now behave yourself".

This isn't about defending the Russian citizens in South Ossetia. Never was. This is about regime change, pure and simple, and with that, control over the Georgian pipelines.

The Russians have been putiing up with a bellicose Russiphobe nationalist demagogue on their border for some years now, and yes, they would like to see him gone. The Russians would like to see a government in Georgia that doesn't give a toss for the symbolic significance of "national territory" ut looks to more practical matters. Such as making a real killing off the Caspian-Black Sea pipeline.

Putin might be a chessmaster, but hell, we in the West need to stand up to him.

Do let us know how that works out for you.

We've beaten Russian chessmasters before.

Only one, and his name was Yeltsin.

 

[Oliver]

Why do you think Georgia, a small, poor country with enough internal problems of its own, sent 2,000 soldiers to Iraq? I bet they calculated it would secure them US support in case of a conflict with Russia.
Which was quite a dumb calculation on their part. History has demonstrated over and over again that international politics just doesn't work that way.

Georgia planned to use the US, while the US planned to use Georgia. Forgive me for feeling little sympathy for either in this case.

I know it doesn't work this way - unless, of course, the Media would run it 24 hours with whiny comments and how sad everyone feels about it - as they usually do whenever some crap happened WITHIN the US.

Yet CNN.US chose to make this [SIZE=-1]John Edwards BS the news of the day rather than some "god-knows-who-and-what-and-where War at the end of the American World" ... [/SIZE]

However: "Be with us or with the terrorists" still did ring a bell in me when I did read the articles header and the article itself ... There certainly is a moral point to it.

 

[egslim]

And let's not forget the superior Israeli technology and tactical awareness in the 21stCE. Oh, the humanity ...

Yes, that's going to be painful. Advanced military technology and doctrine tend to lose their meaning when you're plastered with artillery barrages. And unlike most Western armies, killing a few Russian soldiers only pisses them off.

Probably the most astute 21stCE leader of a Serious Player. And he could easily have decades ahead of him. A chilling thought, but barring accident or successful design Putin is Russia for the foreseeable future.

The upside is that we can probably rely on him to not do anything stupid for "moral" or delusional reasons.

That's why the US-Georgia relationship has been bi-lateral (triangulated by Israel), and the embarrassment is entirely Washington's.

You're right. At worst we lose a pro-Western nation with an oil pipeline in the Caucasus, but geopolitical reality meant that any pro-Western nation in that region was always going to have an early expiration date. So the loss is insignificant.

 

[ddt]

We've beaten Russian chessmasters before.

Only one, and his name was Yeltsin.

Yeltsin a chessmaster? Who are you kidding? I got the impression that Uzzy referred to Fischer-Spasski.

 

[ddt]

Yes, that's going to be painful. Advanced military technology and doctrine tend to lose their meaning when you're plastered with artillery barrages. And unlike most Western armies, killing a few Russian soldiers only pisses them off.

Indeed. Just look at the "Patriotic War" (1812) and the "Great Patriotic War" (1941-1945). But who really thinks there will be a West vs. Russia war? Even the chimp-in-chief would not do something so stupid. If you want to annoy the Russkies, do it at least in 21th C. style. That is: Asymmetrical Warfare (from the War Nerd):

I'll give you the bad news first: no 21st century war is "purely military." The days when countries duked it out on the battlefield are over for the foreseeable future. What we have now is something very strange. It goes by a lot of names, from "terrorism" to "asymmetrical warfare" to "fourth-generation warfare," depending on whether you're for it, against it, or just trying to sound cool. But whatever you call it, the key factor is that it never involves WW-II style conventional war between nation-states.

Saakashvili should have read that one before trying on the Russians.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The Russians have been putiing up with a bellicose Russiphobe nationalist demagogue on their border for some years now, and yes, they would like to see him gone. The Russians would like to see a government in Georgia that doesn't give a toss for the symbolic significance of "national territory" ut looks to more practical matters. Such as making a real killing off the Caspian-Black Sea pipeline.

Some media outlet told me today that the russians tried to destroy the BTC-Pipeline six times, but missed it. Can you imagine that? Six times! That's incompetence, isn't it? Gotta love the western mainstream media...

 

[Childlike Empress]

However: "Be with us or with the terrorists" still did ring a bell in me when I did read the articles header and the article itself ... There certainly is a moral point to it.

It's the evil caucasians again, isn't it?

 

[CapelDodger]

Russia picked up from the Lebanon 2006 war that when the underlying party begs for a ceasefire, you should at least go on for two more days with some more bombing. If Georgia feels slighted, it should send the tab to Washington and Jerusalem.

Lebanon 2006 is a goldmine for Russian diplomacy, let alone Kosovo 2008 and Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points somewhat earlier. US diplomats are left gasping like stranded fish.

Whatever regime Georgia will have after this cools down, they will have learned that you must not ◊◊◊◊ with Moscow. But why couldn't Moscow also care about the Ossetians?

They don't not care for them, and in fact there's a long-standing friendship between Ossetians and Russians, on a sound basis of mutual enmities and interests.

What Georgians (and so many people) really need is a 21stCE government, not something modelled on 19thCE nationalism and muscle-flexing.

 

[egslim]

But who really thinks there will be a West vs. Russia war?

Any such future conflict between Great Powers will be fought economically and through proxies.

But while Russia of course has its own interests, there is no reason except the US desire to be a global hegemon why Russia and the West can't get along fine.

If you want to annoy the Russkies, do it at least in 21th C. style. That is: Asymmetrical Warfare (from the War Nerd):

The Chechyens tried 21th C. style, including raids into Russian territory and thousands of kidnappings. The Russian response is what brought Putin to power.

 

[CapelDodger]

Some media outlet told me today that the russians tried to destroy the BTC-Pipeline six times, but missed it. Can you imagine that? Six times! That's incompetence, isn't it? Gotta love the western mainstream media...

Six will be almost ten before the cock crows thrice, and more than ten before the Sun goes down tomorrow.

 

[SDC]

It's a funny old game, innit?

Russian diplomats are going to make mincemeat of the US and Georgian contingent. They've got more than enough to play with - Kosovo, South Lebanon, the Kuwait War, a people's right to self-determination - and they're just much better at it. We Europeans invented the game, you know.

I doubt it will be widely appreciated within the US that its diplomats are being handed their asses. It'll be widely appreciated out here, though .

In South Wales? Well,whatever floats your boat. Though I don't see any cause to celebrate Russian ascendancy, regardless of Georgian or US or European political stupidity.