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Russia invades Georgia

Another quote from the (must read) Asia Times article:

The agreements with Turkmenistan further consolidate Russia's control of Central Asia's gas exports. Gazprom recently offered to buy all of Azerbaijan's gas at European prices. (Medvedev visited Baku on July 3-4.) Baku will study with keen interest the agreements signed in Ashgabat on Friday. The overall implications of these Russian moves are very serious for the US and EU campaign to get the Nabucco gas pipeline project going.

Nabucco, which would run from Turkey to Austria via Bulgaria, Rumania and Hungary, was hoping to tap Turkmen gas by linking Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan via a pipeline across the Caspian Sea that would be connected to the pipeline networks through the Caucasus to Turkey already existing, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
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Childlike Empress said:
edit: Just found this from Asia Times:
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Bloody great! :(

We're playing a global game of chess, with a chimp in the White House and a thoroughly divided EU that can barely agree on any single move - let alone plan a long term strategy, against Grandmaster Putin in the Kremlin.

We in the West need to sort out our mutual contradictory and often overambitious global priorities, seperate them into "vital" and "secondary" categories. Do whatever is necessary to meet the former, and discard most of the latter.
 
egslim said:
It's a very old kind of war, about determining spheres of influence between Great Powers in strategically important areas. When Russia was weak, after the collapse of communism during the nineties, the US expanded its sphere eastwards. Now Russia is in the ascent, while the US is stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq. So Russia is making use of the occasion to push back the US's sphere.

And the US is pretty much impotent to do anything about it. It has made (or at least implied) promises it can't keep.
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The Georgians certainly seem to think they were promised something. I very much doubt that Condaleeza Rice put the idea into their heads, quite the reverse. So either the Georgians were really, really drunk, or someone's been leading them on.
 
egslim said:
They won't like the timing coïnciding with their Great Moment of the Olympics, but otherwise they have no reason to care.
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And they know it will only poach a tiny fraction of the sudience. I, for instance, couldn't give a toss about the Olympics anyway, so no loss there.
 
CapelDodger said:
The Georgians certainly seem to think they were promised something. I very much doubt that Condaleeza Rice put the idea into their heads, quite the reverse. So either the Georgians were really, really drunk, or someone's been leading them on.
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Egocentrism? The presence of an oil pipeline, US pressure to get them into NATO, and even talk about joining the EU. That could have let them to overestimate their own importance in Western eyes.

It also appears that Georgia is close with the CIA, so Rice may not have been their main point of contact with the US.
 
ddt said:
So you see: what goes around, comes around.
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It's a funny old game, innit?

Russian diplomats are going to make mincemeat of the US and Georgian contingent. They've got more than enough to play with - Kosovo, South Lebanon, the Kuwait War, a people's right to self-determination - and they're just much better at it. We Europeans invented the game, you know.

I doubt it will be widely appreciated within the US that its diplomats are being handed their asses. It'll be widely appreciated out here, though :).
 
egslim said:
Bloody great! :(

We're playing a global game of chess, with a chimp in the White House and a thoroughly divided EU that can barely agree on any single move - let alone plan a long term strategy, against Grandmaster Putin in the Kremlin.

We in the West need to sort out our mutual contradictory and often overambitious global priorities, seperate them into "vital" and "secondary" categories. Do whatever is necessary to meet the former, and discard most of the latter.
Click to expand...


From a pragmatic, geopolitical POV Europe has not the slightest reason to play with the US against Russia. Quite the contrary. Rest assured that many politicians here have read Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard", we know the game. At least Schröder and Chirac knew it. The opportunist Merkel and cuckoo's egg Sarkozy don't act in our interest.

Believe me, i don't like the situation but that's how it is.
 
egslim said:
Egocentrism? The presence of an oil pipeline, US pressure to get them into NATO, and even talk about joining the EU. That could have let them to overestimate their own importance in Western eyes.

It also appears that Georgia is close with the CIA, so Rice may not have been their main point of contact with the US.
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There's this on Exiled Online

http://exiledonline.com/georgia-gets-its-war-onmccain-gets-his-brain-plaque/

"The awful truth is probably a combination of the two, which is the worst of all worlds, considering McCain’s raving Russophobia, and his campaign team’s financial and ideological ties to Saakashvili. As has been reported, McCain’s top foreign policy advisor, neocon Randy Scheunemann, has a long financial relationship with Saakashvili to lobby his interests in the United States."
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Saakashvili and his entourage may have overestimated the influence of the likes of Mr Scheunemann.

So it seems the Georgians :

Overestimated their capacity to overrun South Ossetia.

Underestimated the Russian response.

Overestimated the US response.

Overestimated Georgian influence in Washington.


No wonder they ****ed up so mightily. They were obviously very, very drunk at the time.
 
Childlike Empress said:
From a pragmatic, geopolitical POV Europe has not the slightest reason to play with the US against Russia. Quite the contrary. Rest assured that many politicians here have read Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard", we know the game. At least Schröder and Chirac knew it. The opportunist Merkel and cuckoo's egg Sarkozy don't act in our interest.

Believe me, i don't like the situation but that's how it is.
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I never like the situation, but there it always is.

The standard of world leadership these days is woeful. Where's the FDR, the Mao, the Churchill? Even Hitler and Stalin had stature.

Sarkozy. Bush. Berlusconi, I ask you. Gordon Brown. It's downright depressing.

Putin has some substance, and he stepped into Medvedev's light with alacrity. Signs of jealousy there, I think. Putin the action-man, up there near the front with the lads, comforting the disposessed and seething with righteous anger at their victimisation. Perfectly played. He understands exactly what the Russians look for in a leader, and gives it to them.
 
OneShotKi11 said:
This was a video i found on youtube of the situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhyZjNApBg

What do you think of what this young man has to say?
Any truth?
Is Russia really on the moral high-ground in this situation?

Its a different perspective outside of our local News Media. (CNN NBC ect...)
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His perspective isn't entirely neutral either, but much of it is pretty close to the truth.

I personally believe moral high-ground has little place in international politics. But if you find it important, then in this case you have to weigh the right to self-determination against national sovereignty.

On the one hand, the overwhelming majority of South Ossetians wants either independence or to belong with Russia. Especially after Georgia tried to "secure their loyalty" by shelling their villages and expelling half their population, back in the early nineties.

On the other hand, South Ossetia is internationally recognized as being part of Georgia.

And he is right that Georgia started the attack on South Ossetia last thursday. Hurting South Ossetians and Russian peacekeepers (who are there as part of an internationally recognized force)
 
Childlike Empress said:
From a pragmatic, geopolitical POV Europe has not the slightest reason to play with the US against Russia.
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True, but we can't afford to dump the US as allies entirely either. So it's a balancing act between areas where the US acts in our interests and others where they act contrary.

At least we've been smart enough to keep Georgia out of NATO.
 
CapelDodger said:
I never like the situation, but there it always is.

The standard of world leadership these days is woeful. Where's the FDR, the Mao, the Churchill? Even Hitler and Stalin had stature.

Sarkozy. Bush. Berlusconi, I ask you. Gordon Brown. It's downright depressing.

Putin has some substance, and he stepped into Medvedev's light with alacrity. Signs of jealousy there, I think. Putin the action-man, up there near the front with the lads, comforting the disposessed and seething with righteous anger at their victimisation. Perfectly played. He understands exactly what the Russians look for in a leader, and gives it to them.
Click to expand...


And it's not only propaganda, the russian people are in a far better position than under the drunk fool Jelzin. I was for a long time unsure about Putin, and he is somehow a frightening character, but after his speech in Munich 2007 i decided that he is simply right. And by far the most intelligent leader this planet has seen so far in the still young 21st century.
 
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CapelDodger said:
Saakashvili and his entourage may have overestimated the influence of the likes of Mr Scheunemann.

So it seems the Georgians :

Overestimated their capacity to overrun South Ossetia.

Underestimated the Russian response.

Overestimated the US response.

Overestimated Georgian influence in Washington.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that makes sense.

Especially with the Georgian media offensive mentioned in the article.

It seems they actually believed the BS that the US is more influential in the Caucasus than Russia.
 
OneShotKi11 said:
This was a video i found on youtube of the situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhyZjNApBg

What do you think of what this young man has to say?
Any truth?
Is Russia really on the moral high-ground in this situation?

Its a different perspective outside of our local News Media. (CNN NBC ect...)
Click to expand...

What he's saying is absolutely valid, and outside the US it's widely recognised. I can understand the frustration he feels.

The general US perspective on the world is widely thought to be pretty damn' weird. There, I've said it. The US is the most introverted parochial grouping in its size-range by an enormous length. Not even the French come close.
 
egslim said:
Yeah, that makes sense.

Especially with the Georgian media offensive mentioned in the article.

It seems they actually believed the BS that the US is more influential in the Caucasus than Russia.
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And let's not forget the superior Israeli technology and tactical awareness in the 21stCE. Oh, the humanity ...

With Saakashvili it goes beyond drink and into personality disorder territory.
 
Childlike Empress said:
And it's not only propaganda, the russian people are in a far better position than under the drunk fool Jelzin. I was for a long time unsure about Putin, and he is somehow a frightening character, but after his speech in Munich 2007 i decided that he is simply right. And by far the most intelligent leader this planet has seen so far in the still young 21st century.
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Probably the most astute 21stCE leader of a Serious Player. And he could easily have decades ahead of him. A chilling thought, but barring accident or successful design Putin is Russia for the foreseeable future.
 
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