Will Gordon Brown survive the year?

[Rolfe]

Here is the article from the Daily Mail about David Marshall's expenses saga, the revelation of which was promptly followed by his sudden resignation on "health grounds" - said to be depression and stress. You may think that depression and stress are weak reasons for resigning a parliamentary seat immediately before the summer recess, when a colleague is grimly hanging on in spite of having had a lung removed, to save the government a damaging by-election - I couldn't possibly comment.

Labour's Marshall in shock resignation after rumours over expenses

I note that nothing is said in that article about the links to drug barons and organised crime in the constituency, which have been suggested elsewhere. However, it does point out that the MP's daughter, one of the recipients of the dodgy expenses, was heavily involved in the financial shenanigans that nearly brought down Jack McConnell when he was First Minister.

Four years ago she found herself at the centre of the so-called 'Wishawgate' affair, which embroiled her then boss.

Christina, then 26, had been Mr McConnell's personal aide and found herself having to answer questions from the fraud squad about £11,000 which was missing from his local party funds.

Local Labour bosses called in the police after unearthing the shortfall and, as one of only three signatories to the fund, she was closely questioned.

Also, a charity she was working for at the time asked her to leave, telling her that it did not want its reputation to be tarnished by the affair.

The missing money was from the Red Rose Dinner Account, which managed cash raised at a Labour fundraiser attended by Mr McConnell and the then Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid.

Mr McConnell also had to explain why one of three accounts under investigation had paid £168 for a five-star room for Mr Marshall at Edinburgh's Caledonian Hotel during a Scottish Labour conference in March 2000.

Christina met Mr McConnell when they both worked for Beattie Media, a public relations company.

In 1999, she was also forced to testify during the Scottish 'cash for access' scandal when Mr McConnell was accused – and later cleared – of facilitating special access to Ministers for Beattie Media's clients.

Her evidence was key to Mr McConnell's reputation being cleared after she denied that the company had ever been able to place an engagement in his diary.

I alos note that Mr. Marshall's job, before he got his safe Labour seat, was as a bus conductor. Now I don't want to sound snobbish, and salt of the earth and all that, and I know some people have started life in very lowly employment and have later gone on to become high flyers in various fields. However, bus conductor to Labour party activist to MP for a safe seat in a run-down area? Are we really talking the sort of calibre of intellect we would like to see in our legislature?

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

I'm really having serious difficulty getting my head round the concept that the SNP have a serious chance in this by-election, given the nature of the constituency. Nevertheless, knowledgeable independent experts do seem to think so.

My natural pessimism fears that the SNP's chances will be talked up, Labour will win by about 10 votes after 6 recounts, and they will then hail this "victory" as endorsement and validation and justification for their policies.

Interesting times. Note to self. Change avatar tonight.

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

Another point. The second fortnight in July is the traditional "Glasgow Fair" trades holiday, the time when most people go away on holiday. This by-election has been called for the Thursday of the first week of the Fair. As far as I can discover, there has never before been a by-election in Glasgow during that period.

Applications for postal votes must be received by 5pm next Wednesday (9th July). This isn't much time, given that the by-election appeared from nowhere just a couple of days ago. And even if people get the applications in, the timing is such that there is a real danger the postal ballots will not arrive at their registered addresses until after they have already left on holiday.

Labour have responded to criticism of this ploy by claiming that they are concerned "to ensure the constituency was not without an MP for months". Aye, right. So what would have been wrong with holding it a couple of weeks later? Of course, it is the economically-active people who are more likely to be away that fortnight. Those relying on benefits are far less likely to head off. And of course Labour want to give any approaching bad news as long as possible to fade from memory before parliament returns from recess.

It's all perfectly legal and within the rules, but it's pretty transparent.

Rolfe.

 

[andyandy]

I'm sure Labour will pull out every dirty trick in the book to ensure that they don't lose........ maybe they should take some tips from Mugabe - he's probably got a few ideas they could use

 

[Rolfe]

Oooh, AndyAndy, don't say that when debating with the unionist crowd, comparisons to Mugabe are deemed to be ranting, cybernat paranoia.

astonished - comparing this by election to mugabe/zimbabwe. You are a nutter. What planet are you on. Even the most ardent snp supporter will be squirming at your comments. get a life mate. Its folk like you who set back the cause of independence. Please dont post again until you wise/sober up.

Here's what one of the Herald posters (same thread) has to say about the choice of date.

The Electoral Commission's "About My Vote" site is now working.

I've downloaded the form. Thankfully for those who have internet access will be able to download the form and send it off in time for the 9th July deadline. (When Labour say they stand up for disadvantaged groups, they must mean disadvantaged groups with computers and internet.)

Anyway, the form says that ballot papers may not be sent out until 3 days before the election day.

My first reaction was "What the ****'s the point of a postal vote, then?

But then, this will not affect those who are using postal votes because of disability or other reasons.

The only people affected by this would be those who may be on holiday at the time, and that can't be avoided. I suppose the only thing they could do about this is to avoid having elections during popular holiday periods.

The election day is Thursday, 24th July.

Ballots will be sent out on Monday 21st July.

The Glasgow Fair begins on Friday, 18th July.

I don't believe that it is possible, even for New Labour, to be this incompetent.

Rolfe.

 

[richardm]

Well, that's nice - people will be off work and more able to go and vote.

Seriously, I know that the Glasgow Fair is the traditional time to go on holiday, but surely the days when the entire city shut down and went off to the coast are long gone?

 

[Rolfe]

Well, that's nice - people will be off work and more able to go and vote.

Seriously, I know that the Glasgow Fair is the traditional time to go on holiday, but surely the days when the entire city shut down and went off to the coast are long gone?

Er, have you seen the unemployment statistics for the constituency? "Off work" is the permanent situation for a lot of them.

It's still the time many of the people in work choose to go away, and guess which group is more likely to vote Labour?

Rolfe.

 

[Macoy]

John Reid, a?

I remember him.

 

[Macoy]

My grandfather, having fought in the WW1 trenches, and having been gassed at Ypres, was invalided back to Blighty, where his convalescence was necessarily cut short by the fact that he was not married to my grandmother, and therefore his family would receive no pension. He had previously been married to my grandmother's sister, and had been legally divorced.

He was not allowed to marry my grandmother, as this was deemed to be incest.

As a result, he soon died of pneumonia, being forced to work to raise his three children, and my grandmother struggled for years to raise my mother and her siblings, not all of whom made it.

"New Labourites" like Reid and Blunkett babble on about their "Working Class" credentials and then behave as innocently as a Matebeleland Returning Officer.

George Orwell went to Eton, and he seemed Ok, but BoJo and his mates get my goat, everytime.

 

[Rolfe]

Keir Hardie must be doing about 78rpm by now.

Rolfe.

 

[iamivy]

Brown doing the honorable thing and retiring?Not a chance because he can fight and claim anything but not an iota of honor.Him and his party needs to be booted out.Bring Cameron into power before Grear Britain lose the greatness.

 

[Texas]

I've always like Brown aside from that idiotic mention of the Bible in his 2007 conference speech to 'get one up' over Cameron and the family tax-cut proposal.

That and the Thatcher photo-op.
That and Iraq.
That and the moronic 'Britishness' idea he had going.
That and filling the hole Blair left behind in Bush's arse.

Yeah.. maybe he isn't all that great after all.

Miliband needs to grow some and criticise Israel like he (allegedly) does in private, then he'd be a great Prime Minister. Cameron is no Blair, and Cameron is no Miliband. I just hope people do not forget the advances Labour have made since 2000.

British people want people who stand up for them, not some idiotic US President. They thought they would get that with Brown, they were wrong.

I thought that Bush and Brown had a somewhat tense relationship. Tell me if Brown/Obama were to develop a Blair/Bush relationship how would you view that?

 

[Rolfe]

I notice an interesting angle on this question, tonight.

Alex Salmond is saying that it's a total misconception to imagine that the day after the SNP win Glasgow East, Gordon Brown will be hounded from office. Instead, he maintains, realpolitik will dictate that what actually happens will be that there will be a seismic shift in Labour party policy, and they'll start doing stuff people really want them to do.

Interesting election strategy, and it might even work. It also resonates with what Purcell (the Labour councillor) said, that Gordon Brown only took office a year ago and it's thus far too soon to consider hounding him out of office.

Hard to say whether it's realistic or not, but it looks as if both main contenders in this by-election are trying to make it not a resignation matter for Brown.

Rolfe.

 

[andyandy]

I thought that Bush and Brown had a somewhat tense relationship. Tell me if Brown/Obama were to develop a Blair/Bush relationship how would you view that?

It would depend if we ended up in any wars as a result of it

When Brown took office he initially seemed to do his best to distance himself from Bush - as if to say "look at how different I am to Blair". Several months in, and getting hammered in the domestic polls he seems to have grown to love the international role. That is to say, he likes being surrounded by people who tell him nice things. If anything now, both Bush and Brown seem to embrace each other as lame ducks from the same nest......

 

[andyandy]

I notice an interesting angle on this question, tonight.

Alex Salmond is saying that it's a total misconception to imagine that the day after the SNP win Glasgow East, Gordon Brown will be hounded from office. Instead, he maintains, realpolitik will dictate that what actually happens will be that there will be a seismic shift in Labour party policy, and they'll start doing stuff people really want them to do.

Interesting election strategy, and it might even work. It also resonates with what Purcell (the Labour councillor) said, that Gordon Brown only took office a year ago and it's thus far too soon to consider hounding him out of office.

Hard to say whether it's realistic or not, but it looks as if both main contenders in this by-election are trying to make it not a resignation matter for Brown.

Rolfe.

I find it quite a strange strategy, though I presume they've done their market research

It's always easier to mobilise people around a simple negative:
"vote SNP and get rid of Brown" seems a bit more snappy than:
"vote SNP and Labour might stop being quite so rubbish"

I'm really torn at the moment as to how this election will go. I think it will be close but at the moment I would have to say Labour should just about hold on....... the bookmaker odds have shortened on Labour in the last couple of days, they obviously think Labour might have enough.

 

[Sunstealer]

Alex Salmond is saying that it's a total misconception to imagine that the day after the SNP win Glasgow East, Gordon Brown will be hounded from office. Instead, he maintains, realpolitik will dictate that what actually happens will be that there will be a seismic shift in Labour party policy, and they'll start doing stuff people really want them to do.

Brown and the Labour party can't the unions now have them by the short and curlies because they are guaranteeing the Labour Party debt.

Infact, I doubt GB knows what the people want let alone start doing it. Did you here him going on about how the average family shouldn't throw out so much food after he had enjoyed a 6 course lunch and an 8 course dinner.

 

[andyandy]

Infact, I doubt GB knows what the people want let alone start doing it. Did you here him going on about how the average family shouldn't throw out so much food after he had enjoyed a 6 course lunch and an 8 course dinner.

yes the picture of the global leaders tucking into their 18 dish (or even 24 dish according to some of the papers) is all over both the broadsheets and tabloids tomorrow. And all of them contrasting the gluttony to his earlier comments on frugality. In some ways you have to feel sorry for Brown, he manages to engineer another PR disaster almost effortlessly.

 

[richardm]

It doesn't really matter what he's having for dinner, it was a tosserish thing to say that was bound to stick in people's throats, if you'll pardon the expression. The fact that he was speaking directly after having had both trotters in the trough just makes him a hypocritical tosser.

I threw away a pork chop yesterday purely out of spite. That'll larn 'im.

 

[Francesca R]

I would expect Brown to stay on, lose in 2010 if not before, and for Labour to switch leaders while in opposition. Perhaps they will be out for a couple of terms. They may not take such a "long view" but IMO it would be a waste to put up Miliband right now. Time for the other mob to have a turn.

 

[andyandy]

I've just placed a bet on Labour winning in Glasgow East...... their odds have come down quite a bit in the last few days

from 13/8 to 6/5 to 4/6

Whilst the SNP have drifted to 11/10

I think it will be close, but I think that Labour were overpriced to begin with due to national sentiment rather than the specifics of the local constituency.

We shall see, come on Labour!