Will Gordon Brown survive the year?

[andyandy]

Interesting analysis. I think the future must be data collection through Internet polling. You can build up a much more detailed profile of potential voters, collect more data and use that extra information to produce a better stratified sample.

The impact of having volunteers on the street also can't be underestimated. With such a small majority, it would seem that the ability of the SNP to mobilise its supporters was the deciding factor. I'd be interested in whether Pernell's reforms to the welfare system bafflingly announced just before the election were another factor....... I would suspect that they were.

 

[Architect]

Welfare reform, expenses irregularities, economy going down the spout.....take your pick, mate.

 

[Major Billy]

He's tanned, he's fit, he's ready.

He's Welsh:

 

[Rolfe]

You know, Labour are broke. Worse than broke. And there is a Euro-election next year they can't avoid contesting. And a Holyrood by-election ditto.

Can they actually afford, financially, to ditch Brown? If doing that would precipitate a general election, where would they get the money to fight it?

One poster elsewhere ventures this opinion.

If Brown goes, Labour lose England, but not too badly, but are wiped out in Scotland

If Brown stays, Labour are wiped out in England, but lose not too badly in Scotland.

So, do they risk 10-20 years in the UK wilderness, or lose Scotland altogether? This will be a good test of how unionist the Labour Party really is. What comes first - party or union?

Is this a valid analysis? Discuss.

Rolfe.

 

[andyandy]

You know, Labour are broke. Worse than broke. And there is a Euro-election next year they can't avoid contesting. And a Holyrood by-election ditto.

Can they actually afford, financially, to ditch Brown? If doing that would precipitate a general election, where would they get the money to fight it?

One poster elsewhere ventures this opinion.




Is this a valid analysis? Discuss.

Rolfe.

would Gordon Brown really make such a difference to the election results in Scotland? Labour made sure he kept a pretty low profile during the by-election, so they obviously weren't too confident in his pulling power. In fact, I think the only leaflets he appeared on were the SNP ones.

With regards to Labour's finances, they do sound in a pretty dreadful state, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few wealthy donors came out of the woodwork to buy some long-term favours (even if that might be quite a few years down the line). If they genuinely can't raise any funds, the best bet would be to ditch Brown, appoint a new leader, use that as an excuse to hold a snap election (using the minimum possible timeframe), and hope for some sort of honeymoon bounce from the new media coverage of the PM.

 

[Rolfe]

As far as Brown's influence on Scottish elections is concerned, the prevailing wisdom is that voters in Glasgow East were pissed off with New Labour in general, not GB in particular. Some commentators have put forward the view that there is a degree of sympathy for Brown in Scotland, linked to the perception that part of the reason he is unpopular in England is the simple fact that he's Scottish.

This school of thought is of the opinion that dumping Brown will play very badly for New Labour in Scotland, as it will be perceived by some voters that he is being punished for being Scots.

I have no idea at all if this is true. I think he's a waste of oxygen, regardless of nationality.

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

Bump, since the subject seems to be topical once again.

Rolfe.

 

[andyandy]

He's not going anywhere is he?

 

[Seismosaurus]

He's not going anywhere is he?

There's a saying in British politics that was bandied about a lot when people asked why Major wouldn't call an election until the last possible moment.

"Turkeys don't vote for christmas."