NISTian black boxes - Oh, let me count the ways

metamars

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The purpose of this thread is to cast light on what I'll call NISTian black boxes, as well as (what I believe) is the blindness of the NIST fan base regarding these black boxes. A NISTian black box is an insufficiently documented procedure, wherein a 'plan B' was pursued instead of an intial 'plan A', which affects the outcome of NIST's analysis in ways that can't be determined by the reader of the NIST docs. Indeed, I don't even think NIST knows - it's not just a question of documentation. Be that as it may, certainly the NIST apologists should be able to readily explain to us what's inside these black boxes, if their faith is of the scientific rather than religious type.

I should admit, from the beginning, that I haven't done my homework, in that the person to put the questions regarding the NISTian black boxes (NBB hereafter) should be somebody who understands the modeling technology. However, as nobody else has stepped forward to do this (including the now numerous engineering and architect professional members of ae911truth), I guess that I will plunge in where angels fear to tread! I have taken a graduate course in numerical methods, many years ago, but that in no way makes me suitable for the task at hand - even if I actually remembered most of what I had learned, which I don't.

The algorithm for producing the NBB's is pretty simple - load the NIST pdf file, search for the string "converge" (ignoring it in executive summaries), and record in this thread those instances where the plan B workaround for making the hitherto un-converging model converge. This will be followed by two question per incident, viz.,
Q1) what is the physical (as in "inherent physics captured in the software") difference in the two approaches, in general? The preferred form of this answer is in terms of list of various properties/behavior over a domain large enough to encompass the WTC scenario to which it is applied. I will guess that graphs are probably the best way to convey the information, though they'd ideally be accompanied by the equations from which they were derived.
Q2) what was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied? In particular, what was the quantitative effect of using the convergent method on the overall modeling behavior?

Some variation in this routine is expected, depending on the text, which I just happen to come across while using the "converge" string process. I don't recall NIST using the term "workaround", but it should be clear that I am talking about the computational method that was actually used, since the first method(s) contemplated either did not converge, or converged too slowly.

Now, 2) seems like a trick question, even to me. For if the first method, presumably involving the best guess of software widgets/algorithms/approximations that could be made by the NIST engineers, would not converge, how is answering 2) even possible? I don't know, but the answer may well be that it is never possible. OTOH, it may be possible to compute formulas for converging deltas between the two methods, some or all of the time.

It may turn out (I haven't looked at the NIST documents in a long time, I'm about to now) that even 1) is a trick question, of sorts. And the reason is that it may often be the case that even the convergent methods are not adequately documented. If the reader of NIST's 10,000 page report still cannot determine which elements of the toolbox were used at a given step in the modeling process (as well as whatever ancillary info was used), they sure as heck can't tell us what the deltas are with the (presumably) less documented non-converging methods.

I plan on only adding to this thread on weekends. This is not my life's work, even if this has proven to be a huge life diversion....

Also, I will not be going in order through the NCSTAR documents. I start with 5 examples in NCSTAR 1-6C.

OK, NIST apologists, this is your chance to really shine! Otherwise, some "twoofers" may come to the conclusion that proclaiming the NIST documents as an explanation was mostly an exercise of faith in NIST, rather than a fair (and of necessity, knowledgeable) evaluation of their work.


NBB #1: p. 12 / acrobat p.60
=======================
"To improve convergence in analysis, the negative slope in the stress-strain relationship after cracking or crushing in compression was removed, and the concrete was assumed to be plastic after cracking or crushing"

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?


NBB #2: p. 73 / acrobat p.121
========================
"To improve convergence in analysis, the negative slope in the stress-strain relationship after cracking or crushing in compression was removed, and the concrete was assumed to be plastic after cracking or crushing"

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?


NBB #3: p 77 / acrobat p. 125
===================
Gravity Plus Thermal Loading: The analysis of the truss model subjected to temperature time history was carried out statically; however, when the solution process did not converge, to overcome the convergence problem, the problem was solved dynamically with a 5 percent Rayleigh damping. The static analysis was then resumed when the acceleration and velocity became small.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?


NBB #4: p. 84 / Acrobat p. 132
=========================
Creep in shell was included in the simplified truss model; however, it was not included when the simplified truss model was incorporated in the full floor model, because of convergence problems inherent in BEAM188 elements.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?


NBB #5: p. 84 / Acrobat p. 132
========================
The concrete slab was modeled by SHELL181 elements with a temperature-dependent bilinear material model that had the same yield stength in both tension and compression. The yield strength was set to the compressive strength.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Comment Even a non-engineer like me knows that concrete does much better in compression than tension!

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?
 
You need to explain why you are posting SPAM. Why not explain this to where it makes sense. I think you failed to read and understand NIST to make a rational post.
 
You need to explain why you are posting SPAM. Why not explain this to where it makes sense. I think you failed to read and understand NIST to make a rational post.

And I think that the religious faith of NISTian apologists is being challenged. I am not criticizing the report, per se, as much as I am criticizing the lack of information needed to determine the quatitative effects of numerous 'plan B' procedures undertaken by NIST, to escape convergence problems. Fortunately, NIST was honest enough to document the existence of numerous convergence problems.

It's not so much the information that is present in the report that (for the purposes of this thread) bothers me, it is the information not in the report which makes it impossible to figure out if and where NIST has gone wrong.

I have little doubt that most NIST apologists that post on debunker forums don't have the expertise to understand and explain the logical holes (NBB's), even if they were adequately documented. (In which case, we should rename them to NIST Decision Trees :) ). However, I also have little doubt that there is not even enough documentation presented by NIST to allow an individual with sufficient expertise to do this.

Even so, I invite others to prove me wrong.
 
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metamars do you REALLY think that nobody on this forum is capable of addressing your OP and will all run away when 'challenged'?
 
And I think that the religious faith of NISTian apologists is being challenged. I am not criticizing the report, per se, as much as I am criticizing the lack of information needed to determine the quatitative effects of numerous 'plan B' procedures undertaken by NIST, to escape convergence problems. Fortunately, NIST was honest enough to document the existence of numerous convergence problems.

It's not so much the information that is present in the report that (for the purposes of this thread) bothers me, it is the information not in the report which makes it impossible to figure out if and where NIST has gone wrong.

I have little doubt that most NIST apologists that post on debunker forums don't have the expertise to understand and explain the logical holes (NBB's), even if they were adequately documented. (In which case, we should rename them to NIST Decision Trees :) ). However, I also have little doubt that there is not even enough documentation presented by NIST to allow an individual with sufficient expertise to do this.

Even so, I invite others to prove me wrong.


And when Mackey, Newton's Bit, Rwguinn, beachnut, Gumboot, and other super-bright posters prove you wrong, you will...

LEARN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AND CONTINUE SPOUTING THE SAME RUBBISH.
 
And when Mackey, Newton's Bit, Rwguinn, beachnut, Gumboot, and other super-bright posters prove you wrong, you will...

LEARN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AND CONTINUE SPOUTING THE SAME RUBBISH.

Hopefully they will answer my questions on this very thread, so that others that have the same questions regarding the NBB's can see the answers, eloquently explained. In which case, nobody will care how I interpret their answers, right?

Most of my posts on this thread will not be of the scolding type, but rather quotes from the NIST docs, followed by a couple of very rational questions.

Or are the NIST docs some sort of Bible, that we have to accept without question, in fear of our soul being lost if we do not? That's certainly not my view.

Or are the quotations from NIST "spam"? Is that the problem? If so, that would suggest that we are only supposed to pay attention to the conclusions, and you should take up the question with NIST, itself, of why 10,000 pages, at a cost of $20 million, consists of so much "spam".
 
The point is, metamars, that you will categorically reject ANY explanation of the points in your OP that don't point to an 'inside job'.

It's not like we aren't familiar with your tactics or anything, right?
 
So basically metamars is saying that he is smarter than the hundreds of scientists and engineers who wrote the NIST report. He is also saying that he has somehow discovered some flaw in NIST's methods that no one else has ever discovered. The thousands of people in the scientific community who agree with NIST's work are clueless. Is this correct what you are implying metamars? And if so, how logical does this seem?
 
Metamars:
Do you believe that the reason for the NIST report was to convince laymen that the towers should have collapsed the way they did? It sure seems that way.
 
metamars do you REALLY think that nobody on this forum is capable of addressing your OP and will all run away when 'challenged'?

I'm expecting some serious answers (probably of a general "this is how we do things" type), a lot more of "who do you think you are?" type of responses, and at the end of the day, the NBB's will remain, by and large, NBB's.

Note that, in the case of NCSTAR 1-6C, while there are references, there are no footnotes. The conundrums inherent in the quotations either have no explicit explanation, or those explanations are hidden well. (Or I'm too dumb to see them. Let's not forget that logical possibility!)
 
T......
I should admit, from the beginning, that I haven't done my homework, in that the person to put the questions regarding the NISTian black boxes (NBB hereafter) should be somebody who understands the modeling technology. However, as nobody else has stepped forward to do this (including the now numerous engineering and architect professional members of ae911truth), I guess that I will plunge in where angels fear to tread! I have taken a graduate course in numerical methods, many years ago, but that in no way makes me suitable for the task at hand - even if I actually remembered most of what I had learned, which I don't.

.....l
NBB #1: p. 12 / acrobat p.60
=======================
"To improve convergence in analysis, the negative slope in the stress-strain relationship after cracking or crushing in compression was removed, and the concrete was assumed to be plastic after cracking or crushing"

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?
Conservative approach. Plastic assumes it will still carry load. Fractured/cracked/crushed= won't carry load. Bias in favor of collapse arrest

<<Duplicate question removed>
NBB #3: p 77 / acrobat p. 125
===================
Gravity Plus Thermal Loading: The analysis of the truss model subjected to temperature time history was carried out statically; however, when the solution process did not converge, to overcome the convergence problem, the problem was solved dynamically with a 5 percent Rayleigh damping. The static analysis was then resumed when the acceleration and velocity became small.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?
when the equations don't converge in a non-realistic analysis, generally, more closely simulating reality will unstick the analysis
NBB #4: p. 84 / Acrobat p. 132
=========================
Creep in shell was included in the simplified truss model; however, it was not included when the simplified truss model was incorporated in the full floor model, because of convergence problems inherent in BEAM188 elements.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?
sEE ABOVE
NBB #5: p. 84 / Acrobat p. 132
========================
The concrete slab was modeled by SHELL181 elements with a temperature-dependent bilinear material model that had the same yield stength in both tension and compression. The yield strength was set to the compressive strength.

Q1) What is the physical difference between these two approaches, in general?

Comment Even a non-engineer like me knows that concrete does much better in compression than tension!

Q2) What was the physical, quantitative difference which accrued by using the workaround in the specific WTC scenarios to which this workaround was applied?
Conservative approach, and avoids non-linear modeling. The concrete should not go into tension under the load conditions given anyway

Now, go do your homework. Obvious to me you have never had to model and correlate with reality
 
I'm expecting some serious answers (probably of a general "this is how we do things" type), a lot more of "who do you think you are?" type of responses, and at the end of the day, the NBB's will remain, by and large, NBB's.

Note that, in the case of NCSTAR 1-6C, while there are references, there are no footnotes. The conundrums inherent in the quotations either have no explicit explanation, or those explanations are hidden well. (Or I'm too dumb to see them. Let's not forget that logical possibility!)

False dilemma. An additional possibility is you are perfectly smart enough, in fact, you think you're smarter than the contributers to the NIST as well as any scientist who thinks that the NIST, while not perfect, is pretty much the best explanation.

Right?
 
Even so, I invite others to prove me wrong.
Your own post, proves you wrong. You have failed to understand the NIST report and the goal of NIST on 9/11. What is new? You are making up things to argue about on the NIST report, and not doing a good job of it.

I'm expecting some serious answers (probably of a general "this is how we do things" type), a lot more of "who do you think you are?" type of responses, and at the end of the day, the NBB's will remain, by and large, NBB's.

Note that, in the case of NCSTAR 1-6C, while there are references, there are no footnotes. The conundrums inherent in the quotations either have no explicit explanation, or those explanations are hidden well. (Or I'm too dumb to see them. Let's not forget that logical possibility!)
I was serious; your post does not make sense if you really understand NIST and the overall topic. But you have some answers; good luck
 
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Conservative approach. Plastic assumes it will still carry load. Fractured/cracked/crushed= won't carry load. Bias in favor of collapse arrest

NIST didn't concern itself with arresting (or not arrresting) global collapse. The questions concern the (undocumented) quantitative effects of their 'plan B' s on their models in the period before collapse initiation.


when the equations don't converge in a non-realistic analysis, generally, more closely simulating reality will unstick the analysis
sEE ABOVE
Please explain how they "more clearly simulated reality"? I read NBB #1 and NBB #2 just the opposite - they ended up using a less realistic analysis. In fact, I was assuming that's generally the case. If not, we may have an even less clear situation, overall. If NIST's 'plan A's' were generally the less realistic approach even theoretically possible (in terms of whatever computational tools they had at their disposal), they were that much more likely to 'miss', irregardless of any quantitative determination of just how much they missed.

In this case, NBB #3, I'm not sure. So, please also explain how, in NBB #3, they "more clearly simulated reality".

SEE ABOVE
The fact that NIST even mentions creep wrt floor elements means that it's a real and expected phenomena, no? So, even if floor element models with creep are present in a simplified truss model, but absent in the full floor model doesn't mean that creep, itself, was a simplification. Quite the opposite, correct?


Conservative approach, and avoids non-linear modeling. The concrete should not go into tension under the load conditions given anyway
Wouldn't a horizontal shell, loaded from the top, be in compression in it's inner (topmost) arc, and tension in it's lower arc? I'm assuming it undergoes catenary flexing.

Now, go do your homework. Obvious to me you have never had to model and correlate with reality

No, I intend to allow those people who have already know this stuff to illuminate the rest of us.
 
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False dilemma. An additional possibility is you are perfectly smart enough, in fact, you think you're smarter than the contributers to the NIST as well as any scientist who thinks that the NIST, while not perfect, is pretty much the best explanation.

Right?

False dilemma. Another possibility is that NIST apologists, being human beings, are psychologically predisposed to overlook it's flaws, while those who are antagonistic to it, are more likely to see (and sometimes overestimate) it's flaws. Likewise qualified scientists, who may not really care that much about whether NIST is right or wrong, are nonetheless predisposed (one way or other) via their feelings towards the larger picture of possible government culpability in 911.

Read The Trouble with Physics, if you really believe that physicists are perfectly adequate at rising above tribalism. I can assure you, the author comes to the opposite conclusion, and I concur completely.
 
metamars, when you are trying to be friendly and polite, it helps if you don't make subtle accusations of "religious faith" in your OP.

Either be mean, or be nice. Don't try to go halfway; that's just being a poser.
 
Metamars:

Very interesting questions .... met with typical Nistian apologist responses!

Pomeroo:

I await with great anticipation the answers from "Mackey, Newton's Bit, Rwguinn, Beachnut, Gumboot, and other super-bright posters...."

Oh, that's right, Beachnut and Rwguinn did respond already .... but unfortunately I am not illuminated by their alleged "super-brightness".
 
Ryan Mackey has already spoken to this in his whitepaper:

Considering Mr. Douglas’s whitepaper, the author believes that many of his concerns are based on incomplete or mistaken readings of the NIST Report itself. Some of these are exacerbated by unusual or unclear wording within the Report. Other issues raised here echo limitations acknowledged by NIST itself. Having said this, a number of objections are valid, and a few others are not quite correct but instead lead one to additional fine points of valid criticism. In the author’s opinion, the following list of items should have been included, clarified, or explored in the NIST Report, as suggested directly or indirectly by Mr. Douglas:

*Completeness of Fire Data: NIST should have included all of its thermocouple data from the workstation tests. While this presents no reason to doubt NIST’s conclusions, given the 10,000 page bulk of the Report, there should be no objection to adding a few dozen additional charts.
* Completeness of Fire Testing: NIST’s single workstation fire tests would be more valuable if the effect of the hood on ventilation could be quantified. A seventh test without the hood active would provide this.
* Heat Content of Furnishings: NIST’s own experiments indicate about a 25% discrepancy in total heat content between different types of workstations, but the Report does not discuss the potential impact on fire behavior. If NIST explored the impact of this on the larger fire model, this could partially explain mismatches in burning time between model and reality, or resolve challenges regarding the total volume of combustibles levied by other researchers.
* Choice of Jet Fuel Load: NIST assumed and conducted experiments with 4 L of fuel per workstation, where a cursory analysis suggests that the actual distribution was closer to 12 L per workstation. While we do not expect this to make a large difference overall, at the very least a better explanation should have been given.
* ASTM E 119 Truss Tests: NIST’s tests of the as-built truss structures, with intact fireproofing, reflected the original design, and are of limited value when considering the upgraded SFRM applied as a retrofit. Additional testing would permit a better assessment of hypothetical fire situations. NIST should also have considered tests in this series that incorporated damaged SFRM or fire sprinklers in order to better quantify the range of expected responses.
* Verification of SAP2000 Models: The ASTM E 119 tests, particularly the surprise difference between restrained and unrestrained tests, also could have been used as an excellent verification of the floor system structural models. Given the expense of full-scale experiments in general and wealth of data provided by these tests, it is unclear why this opportunity was overlooked.
* Full Factorial Analysis: NIST’s population of different cases is not a full factorial analysis, but rather a more typical sensitivity analysis, ultimately pared down to an “incompressible list” of four cases. NIST should have better explained its choices in restricting itself to four cases. The author also suggests that additional cases, focused on varying the amount and placement of combustible material after impact, would greatly strengthen NIST’s hypothesis.

As noted in the main text, the author does not expect NIST to revisit its report at this time. It remains to be seen if other ongoing investigations resolve these questions, and whether there is any effect on the collapse hypothesis as a result. The author anticipates no impact on the core NIST hypothesis, but surmises that these questions, if resolved, will help to reconcile differences between NIST and other scientific studies.

Set that to There Is A Fountain Filled With Blood and we've got another hymn for the NISTian choir book.
 
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Metamars:

Very interesting questions .... met with typical Nistian apologist responses!

Pomeroo:

I await with great anticipation the answers from "Mackey, Newton's Bit, Rwguinn, Beachnut, Gumboot, and other super-bright posters...."

Oh, that's right, Beachnut and Rwguinn did respond already .... but unfortunately I am not illuminated by their alleged "super-brightness".


No, Apollo, that's "superb-rightness."
 
metamars, when you are trying to be friendly and polite, it helps if you don't make subtle accusations of "religious faith" in your OP.

Either be mean, or be nice. Don't try to go halfway; that's just being a poser.

OK, I may have carelessly gone over the top. In point of fact, I consider it part of the human condition to be subjective, and furthermore consider this subjectivity to arise largely due to evolution. And this subjectivity is behaviorally (and likely biologically) related to religious behavior.

While I (nevertheless) believe in spiritual reality, to get a handle on what the heck I'm talking about, you can read the chapter on religion in E.O. Wilson's On Human Nature. No offense was meant, though I can see how somebody would take it that way. There used to be a tee-shirt, quoting bigot Archie Bunker, saying "There's a little bit of me in all of yous." Likewise, we're all subjective to one degree or another (including myself), and this has a religious aspect to it, understood from a socio-biological point of view.
 

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