Germany becoming ungovernable, constitutional changes realistic?

[latent aaaack]

I'm sick of US politics but I know little about other countries' elections and politics. So my thoughts on this are...is Germany really becoming ungovernable? Really?

Is anyone even listening to this guy's advice to change the constitution of Germany to make it more like France's to stop it from being immobilized by a six party system?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/06/germany1

Germany risks becoming ungovernable, condemned to a new era of unstable minority rule, fragile coalitions, and lame duck chancellors, a former German head of state warned today....

We are dealing with a fundamental shift in our system of government," said Herzog in a lengthy analysis in Munich's Süddeutsche Zeitung. "It will be increasingly difficult to form and maintain stable absolute majorities. Put plainly, the danger of minority governments will grow....

Calling for an overhaul of the rules fixing how Germany forms its governments, Herzog raised the spectre of the Weimar Republic...

Herzog warned that the entrenchment of the hard left in German politics is likely to be mirrored by the emergence of a stronger extreme right, turning Germany into a six-party system.

"The possibility of a sixth party, which would not need to be neo-fascist, cannot be quite excluded."...

He preferred the French system of run-offs for parliamentary seats because it favoured the big parties while leaving more scope for the small parties to strike bargains...

 

[mrbaracuda]

If the main parties, namely CDU/CSU and SPD keep losing votes and can't form either a grand coalition, CDU/CSU + SPD, or the usual CDU/CSU + FDP or SPD + Green Party, then yes, it will become very difficulty and can even reach a state where Germany will become ungovernable in the terms laid out by Herzog in my opinion.

Look at the election in Hessen: The election was 27.01 and they haven't formed a new parliament yet. SPD doesn't want to have a grand coalition with the CDU, the Green party doesn't want to form a coalition with the CDU and can't get the majority together with the SPD. The FDP and CDU can't get the majority either and The Left party is isolated after the debacle of the SPD, which kept saying they won't form a coalition with The Left. Then the SPD wanted to work with The Left after the election but couldn't because of one of their party members who would not tolerate it, so they didn't reach a majority in their own party for a SPD + Green Party + The Left coalition.

Now, imagine there was a sixth party and the general election is coming up. Horrible.

Here you can find the results of Hessen.

Same problem in Hamburg: Click here for the results. As you can see, neither can the CDU with her traditional coalition partner FDP form a coalition, nor can the SPD with her traditional partner the Green Party form a coalition. As for the SPD, they couldn't even form a coalition out of SPD + Green Party + The Left. And since both CDU and SPD don't want a grand coalition, the CDU is talking to the Green Party now, which is as far as I know a political innovation for Germany.

 

[fuelair]

Oh where, oh where is Oliver to tell us why lots of little parties are good for us!!!!

 

[a_unique_person]

It's a fine balance. Too few big parties are bad as well.

 

[egslim]

Look at the election in Hessen: The election was 27.01 and they haven't formed a new parliament yet. SPD doesn't want to have a grand coalition with the CDU, the Green party doesn't want to form a coalition with the CDU and can't get the majority together with the SPD. The FDP and CDU can't get the majority either and The Left party is isolated after the debacle of the SPD, which kept saying they won't form a coalition with The Left. Then the SPD wanted to work with The Left after the election but couldn't because of one of their party members who would not tolerate it, so they didn't reach a majority in their own party for a SPD + Green Party + The Left coalition.

Sounds more like a mentality than a constitutional problem.

It is the voters who ultimately decide which parties should form a coalition. There are very few valid reasons for a party to refuse cooperation with another party if the electoral results indicate they should. As soon as the party leaders accept that fact of life the "constitutional crisis" will be solved.

 

[Cleon]

Oh where, oh where is Oliver to tell us why lots of little parties are good for us!!!!

Uh...The solution Herzog proposes also involves "lots of little parties."

 

[littlehulkster]

Clearly, the solution is to vote in another insane Austrian with a top lip mustache and a good working relationship with Hugo Boss.

 

[mrbaracuda]

Sounds more like a mentality than a constitutional problem.

It is the voters who ultimately decide which parties should form a coalition. There are very few valid reasons for a party to refuse cooperation with another party if the electoral results indicate they should. As soon as the party leaders accept that fact of life the "constitutional crisis" will be solved.

While you're right that the voters decide, it's unthinkable to form a coalition with certain parties because of what you call mentality. It's not just the mentality, it's the whole party program and not enough points both can agree on. Now imagine three parties or even four trying to establish a coalition.

The Left party for example is a radical left party and the successor of the East German SED, which became the PDS after the German reunification and merged with its West German offspring WASG, resulting in what we know as The Left. In my opinion only the greedy elements of the SPD want to form a coalition with The Left at the moment, or how I like to call them: the Utopian Party.

The SPD is going left towards them and so is even the former "tiny bit right-wing, foremost central" party CDU. Problem is, many voters are either voting for The Left because they're, to be honest, dumb and fall for their utopian demands or vote for them just to protest. It's The Left party in my opinion that is a problem at the moment, because it's syphoning votes off of the other parties. That and the trend of low turnouts.

As seen in Hessen, the electoral results indicate they should form a great coalition, which mainly the SPD does not want if I'm not mistaken. But now that their plan of a SPD + Green Party + The Left failed, they might have to form a grand coalition - or have new elections in Hessen.

As for your "fact of life": the CDU talking to the Green Party is difficult because the CDU for example wants to maintain brown coal plants or deepen the Elbe that leads into Hamburg, so bigger ships can access the harbour. The Green Party is against both. I'm curious as to how their talks will turn out.

It's not as easy as you might think and even if they accept "that fact of life", they can block each other in the process afterwards.

What worries me personally is the course of the CDU and the results you can see in Hessen, in Niedersachsen and in Hamburg. Nichtwähler = someone who did not vote at all; Andere = other.

 

[marksman]

I'm sorry, but I will find your argument unconvincing unless it is supported by a series of five or more one-hour YouTube videos, only six seconds of each video being relevant to your point.

 

[MRC_Hans]

I think that the thought of a multipartite system is frightening to many, but having lived with one for over half a century, I can tell you that it is just a way of living. Of course, big parties which have been used to having full dominance when in office will have a learning curve .

IIRR, the record for a Danish parlament is 12 parties represented. Currently, we have 10.

Hans

 

[Phaedrus74]

What worries me personally is the course of the CDU and the results you can see in Hessen, in Niedersachsen and in Hamburg. Nichtwähler = someone who did not vote at all; Andere = other.

What causes the CDU to lose so many voters? Länderpolitik is rarely covered here in the Netherlands, but I had the impression that Merkel was doing an okay job. Has this no influence on the elections in the Bundesländer? Or are de CDU politicians simply doing a bad job?

 

[mrbaracuda]

What causes the CDU to lose so many voters? Länderpolitik is rarely covered here in the Netherlands, but I had the impression that Merkel was doing an okay job. Has this no influence on the elections in the Bundesländer? Or are de CDU politicians simply doing a bad job?

I'm not sure which other factors can be attributed to the loss, but the main problem seems to be the CDU's pandering to the left, thus moving slightly away from the center as well as other things like their position on Islam and migrants with a muslim background, with the minister of the interior (CDU) leading the "Integrationsgipfel", the integration summit, which is clearly failing, not only because the Turkish-muslim organisations could not to this day accept our constitution, but because Schäuble, the minister of the interior is even giving in to demands, which adds to the voters' decisions. Hardly a good thing for a Christian Democratic Party, heh. As well as a widely spread feeling of social injustice, carefully fostered by The Left and,then as a reaction, SPD.

Of course the overall performance has an influence on the Länder (states) and affects their policy, but the Länder are own their own pretty much when it comes to state politics. You have to keep in mind that Germany's still in a state of reform and change of its labour politics. Although it's overall going up and unemployment down, the felt state of many citizens is quite low or in the negative, especially when it comes to the reforms. Here The Left comes in with their utopian demands and the SPD, who doesn't want to lose voters to The Left.

Overall I'd say the CDU has lost her "bite"; she does not counter the opposition properly and doesn't take advantage of many things in the public discourse. If she were to get back to the center-slightly right position and would be clearer on some points like in the integration summit and also deny demands and follow through her own agenda as a center-party, I think voters would come back.

ETA: As an example: The left (not the party now) is strong and effective in Germany. Hessen's minister Koch tried to capitalize on an event that took place shortly before Christmas, where a retired ~80 years old man was almost beaten to death by a Turk and a Greek, because he told them not to smoke in the smoke free subway. Hessen is one of the safer states in terms of criminal statistics, yet the left, SPD, Green Party and The Left tried, in parts successfully, to brand Koch as a racist etc, because one of Koch's party programs he ran on was to do more against criminal foreigners.

 

[Phaedrus74]

I'm not sure which other factors can be attributed to the loss, but the main problem seems to be the CDU's pandering to the left, thus moving slightly away from the center as well as other things like their position on Islam and migrants with a muslim background, with the minister of the interior (CDU) leading the "Integrationsgipfel", the integration summit, which is clearly failing, not only because the Turkish-muslim organisations could not to this day accept our constitution, but because Schäuble, the minister of the interior is even giving in to demands, which adds to the voters' decisions. Hardly a good thing for a Christian Democratic Party, heh. As well as a widely spread feeling of social injustice, carefully fostered by The Left and,then as a reaction, SPD.

This is something I recognize. We had (have?) similar problems in the Netherlands. But the CDA (equiv. CDU) was relatively isolated from the anti-multiculturalist backlash, the PvdA (SPD) intially took the heaviest blows but in the end it seems that the VVD (FDP) has become permanently fragmented whereas the PvdA has pretty much recovered.

Of course the overall performance has an influence on the Länder (states) and affects their policy, but the Länder are own their own pretty much when it comes to state politics. You have to keep in mind that Germany's still in a state of reform and change of its labour politics. Although it's overall going up and unemployment down, the felt state of many citizens is quite low or in the negative, especially when it comes to the reforms. Here The Left comes in with their utopian demands and the SPD, who doesn't want to lose voters to The Left.

Labormarket reforms are without a doubt the biggest challenge for Germany (and France) and I understand that these cause a great deal of unrest. clever politicking by the Left party does pose a thread. On the other hand when they come to be in a position where they would have to carry the burden of government they might (or will probably) chicken out (like the SP did over here) since they would have to make too many concessions.

Overall I'd say the CDU has lost her "bite"; she does not counter the opposition properly and doesn't take advantage of many things in the public discourse. If she were to get back to the center-slightly right position and would be clearer on some points like in the integration summit and also deny demands and follow through her own agenda as a center-party, I think voters would come back.

Living in a country where the Christian Democrats' defining characteristic is enabling either a left-wing or right-wing majority, "lack of bite" is pretty much synonymous with them. I can see why you are concerned that a "lack of bite" might come to be perceived as a "lack of substance".

I hope (and trust) that it will work out in the long run.

Thanks for you response...

 

[mrbaracuda]

the CDA (equiv. CDU) was relatively isolated from the anti-multiculturalist backlash, the PvdA (SPD) intially took the heaviest blows but in the end it seems that the VVD (FDP) has become permanently fragmented whereas the PvdA has pretty much recovered.

[...]

Thanks for you response...

You're welcome. I got to ask you about that anti-multiculturalist backlash though. What happened?

 

[Phaedrus74]

You're welcome. I got to ask you about that anti-multiculturalist backlash though. What happened?

Are you familiar with Pim Fortuyn (he got assassinated a couple of years back)? He launched a bid for government shortly before the events of 9-11 his platform (initially) was that the "purple" coalition of the nineties (PvdA, VVD and D'66) had all but ruined dutch government by being basically spineless jerks. [That they made it possible for same-sex couples to get married or that they legalised euthanasia apparently wasn't very impressive].

He initially became popular because of the fact that the dot-com bubble had just burst causing wide-spread economic insecurity. After the events of 9-11 he became a vocal critic of radical Islam and he succeeded in convincing a large number of people that especially the PvdA had negelected to monitor and support the integration of guest workers of Maroccan and Turkish descent and their children. This led (after his assassination by a left-wing loon) to the tightening of immigration laws, integration exams and a general distrust of muslims as exemplified by the popularity of one issue-politicians like Geert Wilders and Rita Verdonk.

This is, in a rather roomy nutshell, the anti-multiculturalist backlash. Currently it is believed that Pim Fortuyn had a point, namely that reluctance to assist people to integrate in society (because of an unsubstantiated fear of assimilation by force) is tantamount to abandoning them to the whims of fate.

 

[Georg]

As an example: The left (not the party now) is strong and effective in Germany. Hessen's minister Koch tried to capitalize on an event that took place shortly before Christmas, where a retired ~80 years old man was almost beaten to death by a Turk and a Greek, because he told them not to smoke in the smoke free subway. Hessen is one of the safer states in terms of criminal statistics, yet the left, SPD, Green Party and The Left tried, in parts successfully, to brand Koch as a racist etc, because one of Koch's party programs he ran on was to do more against criminal foreigners.

I beg to differ. Koch is a racist. Outside his party he did not have much support for his campaign. Some support, yes, for example from the NPD, which is the most successful Nazi party in Germany in the moment.
Playing the "criminal foreigner card" was exactly why the CDU had the bad result in Hessen. That is not even disputed in the CDU. You can read the election analysis here.
The analysis is of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, which is very close to the CDU, so definitely not a left source. Scroll down to the bottom of page 5. (It´s a pdf)

Criminal statistics: Hessen had quite the biggest rise of youth criminality in Germany during the time of his reign , which made his campaign ring hollow.

 

[Francesca R]

Germany ungovernable? To my knowledge, with the exception of Schroeder calling (and losing) an election early, German governments almost always run to full term and are very difficult to unseat. Compared to countries like . . . . everywhere else in Europe.

Is that incorrect?

The idea of a "grand coalition" is rather odd though. That's what I tend to think of Japan's LDP as. But grand coalitions running Germany are not all that common, are they?

 

[Georg]

Germany ungovernable? To my knowledge, with the exception of Schroeder calling (and losing) an election early, German governments almost always run to full term and are very difficult to unseat. Compared to countries like . . . . everywhere else in Europe.

Is that incorrect?

That is not incorrect, but the situation is different now with the left party (I like the expression "Utopian party", mrbaracuda) entering the parliaments. Germany will become more difficult to govern, but I don´t think that it will become ungovernable. And I´m all for a system with more than two parties, because it means we can choose amongst more than two turds.

 

[Beerina]

If by "ungovernable", you mean "paralyzed such that it cannot pass more laws", then isn't that a good thing?

I would not be in a rush to re-arrange things such that the power hungry find it easier to begin exercising their power. Would that more nations were "ungovernable".

 

[Chaos]

Germany ungovernable? To my knowledge, with the exception of Schroeder calling (and losing) an election early, German governments almost always run to full term and are very difficult to unseat. Compared to countries like . . . . everywhere else in Europe.

Is that incorrect?

You´re thinking of Italy, for example, aren´t you? (my apologies to any Italian forum members there might be...)

But I agree with you... for example Helmut Kohl staying in power for 16 years might not have been for the best of the country, but it did prove that we´re governable.

The idea of a "grand coalition" is rather odd though. That's what I tend to think of Japan's LDP as. But grand coalitions running Germany are not all that common, are they?

Our current one if the second... I think the first was some time in late 60´s - I´d have to look that up.

The advantage of the grand coalition is that there is no strong opposition who can ruin things by simply blockading everything out of spite. Both parties have an incentive to make things happen, because then they can take credit for the good stuff that happens, and lay blame for it on their partner.