How Al Gore Will Get the Democratic Nomination

[BPSCG]

Current Obama vs. Clinton Pledged Delegates:

MSNBC:
1307 vs 1175 = 132

CNN:
1257 vs 1127 = 130

Okay, let's go with the MSNBC numbers. Right now there are 611 unpledged delegates remaining to be selected in primaries/caucuses.

If Obama wins all of them, he's still only at 1,918, well shy of the 2,024 he needs for the nomination. He'd need superdelegates, too.

And he won't win all of them. If he and Clinton go 50/50 the rest of the way, that puts him at 1307 + 305 = 1,613. He'd need over 400 superdelegates.

That would put Clinton at 1175 + 305 = 1,480. Not counting Florida's 210 total (pledged and super) and Michigan's 157 total (pledged and super).

Neither one gets the nomination without back room dealing for superdelegates. And if the delegate count is close, the absence of 367 delegates from the count may well make it impossible for either to get the necessary 2,024.

 

[kosai]

Okay, let's go with the MSNBC numbers. Right now there are 611 unpledged delegates remaining to be selected in primaries/caucuses.

If Obama wins all of them, he's still only at 1,918, well shy of the 2,024 he needs for the nomination. He'd need superdelegates, too.

And he won't win all of them. If he and Clinton go 50/50 the rest of the way, that puts him at 1307 + 305 = 1,613. He'd need over 400 superdelegates.

That would put Clinton at 1175 + 305 = 1,480. Not counting Florida's 210 total (pledged and super) and Michigan's 157 total (pledged and super).

Neither one gets the nomination without back room dealing for superdelegates. And if the delegate count is close, the absence of 367 delegates from the count may well make it impossible for either to get the necessary 2,024.

But nobody is debating that. Through your use of anti-liberal prose you are simply calling using the super delegate system that is already in place as "back room dealing for superdelegates" with all sorts of nefarious claims in those musky cigar smoke filled rooms where secret plans are hatched to take away your gun and half your salary in taxes.

Will super delegates choose the winner? Yes.

Is that significant? No.

 

[BPSCG]

But nobody is debating that.

Are you saying you actually agree that with Florida and Michigan out of the mix, it's quite possible that neither Clinton nor Obama will be able to get to 2,024?

Through your use of anti-liberal prose you are simply calling using the super delegate system that is already in place as "back room dealing for superdelegates"

Well, yeah. You don't think those deals aren't getting made at this very moment?

Psst... Come here... You wanna buy this Rolex watch? My uncle died and left it to me. It's worth $3,000, but I'll let you have it for a hundred, 'cuz I need the money to pay my landlord...

I hope this letter will find you in the best of health. I am Prince Joe Eboh, the Chairman of the “Contract Award Committee”, of the “Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC)”, a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

The Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) was set up by the late Head of State, General Sani Abacha who died on 18th June 1998, to manage the excess revenue accruing from the sales of Petroleum and its allied products as a domestic increase in the petroleum products to develop the communities in the Niger Delta Oil producing areas.

I am the Chairman of the Contract Award Committee, and my committee is solely responsible for awaiting and paying of contracts on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria. My Committee Awarded Contracts to foreign contractors for Drilling and Ecological Matters in the oil producing areas of Niger Delta. We overshot the contract sum by US$25,000,000.00. We have paid the contractors and withholding the balance of US$25,000, 000.00. But, because of the existence of some of the domestic laws forbidding civil servants in Nigeria from opening, operating and maintaining foreign accounts, we do not have the expertise to transfer this balance of fund to a foreign account.

However, this balance of US$25,000, 000.00 has been secured in form of Credit/Payment to a foreign contractor, hence we wish to transfer into your bank account as the beneficiary of the fund. We have also arrived at a conclusion that you will be given 20% of the total sum transferred as our foreign partner, while 5% will be reserved for incidental expenses that both parties will incur in the course of actualizing this transaction, and the balance of 75% will be kept for the committee members.

Will super delegates choose the winner? Yes.

Is that significant? No.

Not terribly democratic (with a small "d"), either, is it? How'd they become superdelegates?

[Monty]
King Arthur: I am your king.
Woman: Well I didn't vote for you.
King Arthur: You don't vote for kings.
Woman: Well how'd you become king then?
[/Grail]

 

[Upchurch]

Are you saying you actually agree that with Florida and Michigan out of the mix, it's quite possible that neither Clinton nor Obama will be able to get to 2,024?

With Florida and Michigan out of the mix, do they still have to get to 2,024 or is that number adjusted down to account for Florida and Michigan's absence?

 

[BPSCG]

With Florida and Michigan out of the mix, do they still have to get to 2,024 or is that number adjusted down to account for Florida and Michigan's absence?

I was wondering that myself; the wikipedia entry where I got my delegate numbers says, in part, "In order to secure the nomination at the convention, a candidate must receive at least 2,024 votes from delegates (a simple majority of the 4,047 delegate votes, bearing in mind half votes from territories)."

I know, take wikipedia with a grain of salt, but given the public glare this issue is getting, I can't imagine something that is demonstrably wrong about this issue staying up there long.

I can certainly imagine a convention fight over that issue, though.

Gonna need a lot of popcorn. This could end up being the most entertaining convention since the Dems in Chicago in 1968...

 

[NotJesus]

His blunders have been ignored, such as not knowing Al-Qaeda is in Iraq...

You keep saying that and it's just plain wrong. To figure out why, you need to pay attention to what Obama said, not just what McCain said about what Obama said -- after admitting he didn't even hear Obama say it!

Please try to keep up.

 

[kosai]

Are you saying you actually agree that with Florida and Michigan out of the mix, it's quite possible that neither Clinton nor Obama will be able to get to 2,024?

Wow, you suck at math (kidding, this is a reference for Upchurch) But you are doing your calculations incorrectly. You are eliminating super delegates in your numbers because you've confused pledged delegate numbers with total delegate numbers.

As you've already explained, worse case scenario we have every state from here out split 50/50. Your numbers show:

1307 + 305 = 1,613

Again, as you said Obama will need 400+ (411 to be exact) super delegates to meet the needed 2,025. There are 794 or 796 super delegates (depends where you look) so I'm failing to see how it's going to fall short.

Sorry, but it ain't anything nothing popcorn worthy.

...

As far as 419 letters and monty python references. Uh... cool?

 

[kallsop]

You keep saying that and it's just plain wrong. To figure out why, you need to pay attention to what Obama said...

What is the preferred flavor of Obama Coolaid?

I heard what Obama said. Not a transcript, but listened to what he said, tone of voice and all. There is no context that excuses what he said.

I'll accept that he misspoke, but not that he was misunderstood. These are the kind of mistakes that can be ignored (Obama) or mercilessly propagated (Dan Quayle). Prediction - Hillary is going to start doing the lamestream medias job and hold Obama accountable. Should be a fun next few months. Bring it on!

 

[BPSCG]

As you've already explained, worse case scenario we have every state from here out split 50/50.

That's not worst case - that's quite plausible, +/- a percent or two.

Your numbers show:

1307 + 305 = 1,613

Again, as you said Obama will need 400+ (411 to be exact) super delegates to meet the needed 2,025. There are 794 or 796 super delegates (depends where you look) so I'm failing to see how it's going to fall short.

Assuming they split the super delegates, that's 796/2 = 398. 398 < 411. Close but no cigar.

And how many of those 796 supers are unavailable because they're from Florida and Michigan?

 

[NotJesus]

What is the preferred flavor of Obama Coolaid?

I heard what Obama said. Not a transcript, but listened to what he said, tone of voice and all.

And yet, as I said, you're completely wrong.

 

[kosai]

That's not worst case - that's quite plausible, +/- a percent or two.

Assuming they split the super delegates, that's 796/2 = 398. 398 < 411. Close but no cigar.

And how many of those 796 supers are unavailable because they're from Florida and Michigan?

Maybe it's time to stop getting your education from the likes of the "NRO" because that ain't how it works in the process. These are super delegates choosing (hopefully) the next President of the United States, they aren't playing Who Wants to be a Millionaire. They don't "final answer" or lock in their votes, they can jump from one group to the next at will. You are acting like they pledge their souls to a candidate, though in your mind maybe they do, you have a lot of rather interesting ideas around this board.

Also, did you actually read that article you linked to? It sounds more like a supermarket harlequin novel than a news story.


A fanfare of trumpets! A shaft of light! Into the hall rides a man on a white stallion! Stirred from their lethargy, the delegates begin rising from their seats. They start cheering and applauding. The rider reaches the podium, dismounts, and strides to the dais. The applause is deafening now. Cheers ring round the hall! Women are weeping; men are hugging each other.

Broad-shouldered and confident, his sternocleidomastoid muscle flexing and rippling, the Rescuer sweeps his powerful gaze around the hall. A hush falls. He begins to speak. As he speaks, the same though settles on every listener simultaneously: This is the one. He has always been the one. What fools we have been!


And you wonder why there's the rumors of right-wingers being a bit in the closet. That was a believable news item to you?? Really?

 

[Upchurch]

And yet, as I said, you're completely wrong.

Perhaps someone could find the clip in question?

 

[BPSCG]

Maybe it's time to stop getting your education from the likes of the "NRO" because that ain't how it works in the process. These are super delegates choosing (hopefully) the next President of the United States, they aren't playing Who Wants to be a Millionaire. They don't "final answer" or lock in their votes, they can jump from one group to the next at will. You are acting like they pledge their souls to a candidate, though in your mind maybe they do, you have a lot of rather interesting ideas around this board.

Fine, we're not going to settle this here and today. By August we'll know which one of us was right. I'm saying it becomes a brokered convention unless one of the candidates shoots him/herself in the head - figuratively or literally. What do you think happens if neither of them can get the requisite 2,024 votes after thirty-four ballots?

Also, did you actually read that article you linked to? It sounds more like a supermarket harlequin novel than a news story.


A fanfare of trumpets! A shaft of light! Into the hall rides a man on a white stallion! Stirred from their lethargy, the delegates begin rising from their seats. They start cheering and applauding. The rider reaches the podium, dismounts, and strides to the dais. The applause is deafening now. Cheers ring round the hall! Women are weeping; men are hugging each other.

Broad-shouldered and confident, his sternocleidomastoid muscle flexing and rippling, the Rescuer sweeps his powerful gaze around the hall. A hush falls. He begins to speak. As he speaks, the same though settles on every listener simultaneously: This is the one. He has always been the one. What fools we have been!


And you wonder why there's the rumors of right-wingers being a bit in the closet. That was a believable news item to you?? Really?

This reinforces my theory that an apalling number of left-wingers are a grim, humorless lot. You take the above literally, even after reading the sentence describing Gore riding onto the convention floor on a white stallion. I have a WaPo article around here that posits the theory that Republicans are happier than Democrats. Have to see if I can find it.

ETA: Ah, here it is:

A 2006 Pew Research poll found that 45 percent of Republicans describe themselves as "very happy," compared with only 30 percent of Democrats (and 29 percent of independents). This is a sizable gap and a remarkably consistent one, too. Republicans have been happier than Democrats every year since the General Social Survey, conducted biannually by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, began asking about happiness in 1972.
What to make of this finding? Is there something about being a card-carrying member of the GOP that induces a warm, fuzzy feeling, a sort of political Prozac? Or does the river of causality flow in the other direction: Are happy people more likely to become Republicans than Democrats? Or maybe neither explanation holds water and it only appears as if Republicans are happier than Democrats.
The most obvious place to look for an explanation is, of course, with money. Wealthy people are marginally happier than poor ones, and Republicans, according to some surveys, tend to be wealthier than Democrats, so that must be why they're happier, right? Nice try, but no dice. Even after adjusting for differences in income, the Pew researchers still found a marked happiness gap: Poor Republicans are, on average, happier than poor Democrats, and wealthy Republicans are happier than wealthy Democrats.
Maybe the answer is power. Republicans have controlled the White House for most of the past 35 years, and nothing spells happiness like p-o-w-e-r. Wrong again. Republican bliss persists even if a Democrat -- be it Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton -- resides in the White House.
You can practically hear the researchers at Pew scratching their liberal heads. They put the findings through a rigorous process called multiple-regression analysis in an attempt to isolate the relevant variables. But try as they might, they could not wash that Republican happiness out of their hair.

 

[NotJesus]

Perhaps someone could find the clip in question?

Here's the relevant excerpt from Obama's answer to Tim Russert's hypothetical about the possiblity of re-invading Iraq:

"Now, I always reserve the right for the president -- as commander in chief, I will always reserve the right to make sure that we are looking out for American interests. And if al Qaeda is forming a base in Iraq, then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad. So that is true, I think, not just in Iraq, but that's true in other places. That's part of my argument with respect to Pakistan."

It takes quite a leap to get from this to 'Obama doesn't know al Qaeda is in Iraq.'

Link.

 

[BPSCG]

Here's the relevant excerpt from Obama's answer to Tim Russert's hypothetical about the possiblity of re-invading Iraq:

"Now, I always reserve the right for the president -- as commander in chief, I will always reserve the right to make sure that we are looking out for American interests. And if al Qaeda is forming a base in Iraq, then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad. So that is true, I think, not just in Iraq, but that's true in other places. That's part of my argument with respect to Pakistan."

It takes quite a leap to get from this to 'Obama doesn't know al Qaeda is in Iraq.'

Link.

Emphasis mine. Does he think al Qaeda has a base in Iraq right this minute? If so, why does he promise to scurry out of Iraq as fast as he can the minute he's sworn in?

 

[kosai]

Fine, we're not going to settle this here and today. By August we'll know which one of us was right. I'm saying it becomes a brokered convention unless one of the candidates shoots him/herself in the head - figuratively or literally.

It's going to be a brokered convention now, without the bullets (or someone quitting pre-convention.) You've already shown it has to be, why are you changing your stance on the one thing you were right about?

What do you think happens if neither of them can get the requisite 2,024 votes after thirty-four ballots?

For this to happen you need 400 people to be so dedicated to one candidate that they won't change over. This is ridiculous, if they were that committed don't you think they would be on their candidates side already? There are 358 uncommitted now joining either side is enough to push over the need 2024.

This reinforces my theory that an apalling number of left-wingers are a grim, humorless lot. You take the above literally, even after reading the sentence describing Gore riding onto the convention floor on a white stallion. I have a WaPo article around here that posits the theory that Republicans are happier than Democrats. Have to see if I can find it.

This reinforces my theory that an appalling number of right-wingers like bad jokes. I know that part of the article was written in jest, I was in on the joke... It just wasn't funny.

ETA: Ah, here it is:

Ignorance is bliss, as they say.

 

[Upchurch]

Emphasis mine. Does he think al Qaeda has a base in Iraq right this minute?

Does your emphasized portion indicate that what he thinks about? It's an if...then statement, not a declaration of fact.

 

[ImaginalDisc]

Yes, it's totally plausible that a guy who has repeatedly expressed no interest in running again, who has no campaign money, and no votes in the primaries is going to become the Democratic nominee for President.

I want to bookmark this thread to throw it back in your face when nothing remotely like this happens.

 

[kosai]

Yes, it's totally plausible that a guy who has repeatedly expressed no interest in running again, who has no campaign money, and no votes in the primaries is going to become the Democratic nominee for President.

I want to bookmark this thread to throw it back in your face when nothing remotely like this happens.

***Remember***, that article is from a source of NEWS for him. Then in another thread he complains about bias in the New York Times:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3498621&postcount=3

These people are almost as bad as the truthers.

 

[Darth Rotor]

***Remember***, that article is from a source of NEWS for him. Then in another thread he complains about bias in the New York Times:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3498621&postcount=3

These people are almost as bad as the truthers.

This is the politics sub forum, you don't get an objective opinion. (Nor do many, yourself included, seem to offer one. )

I am trying to be as objectively cynical regarding all of the major candidates, as both parties have me in raw disgust mode, but I am sure I am not succeeding as well as I would like to.

No point in complaining about it, it's the nature of the beast: politics isn't science, I don't care how many political scientists claim it is.

DR