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Hillary Campaign Deathwatch

corplinx said:
Not necessarily. Looking like a vulnerable woman might help her.
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I don't think it made her look vulnerable, just more human. She seemed to be off-script, and speaking honestly for the first time in her campaign. If anything, it will make her look a lot less like Lady Macbeth.
 
latent aaaack said:
There's something I really don't understand - why did Clinton's support suddenly drop in New Hampshire after Obama won in Iowa? Is it just coincidence or did NH change it's vote because she lost in Iowa? Why would New Hampshire change who it wants to vote for based on Iowa's decision? Anyone?
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The horserace blog has a two-part "primer on momentum" which explains why.
Part 1
Part 2
 
corplinx said:
Not necessarily. Looking like a vulnerable woman might help her.
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Hmm. We all know that different rules apply for men and women. Muskie was a man, Hillary is not. Former Japanese PM Koizumi said that "tears are a woman's biggest weapon." Let's see what effect this has (I still expect it would be bad, but probably not as bad as it would be for a man to cry).
 
rtalman said:
I don't think it made her look vulnerable, just more human. She seemed to be off-script, and speaking honestly for the first time in her campaign. If anything, it will make her look a lot less like Lady Macbeth.
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Agreed. It was an obvious ploy to break her image as a cynical robot. Maybe it's just me, but I don't recall ever seeing Hillary Clinton get choked up about anything, not even as she was publically humiliated during the Lewinski scandal. If a woman can fight back the emotions as the entire national media talks about her husband's affair, I doubt she's going to lose her composure because, "the other candidates just don't care enough!!!"
 
ScanningFool said:
I think most of the vote shifting is due to people who liked Obama but felt he wasn't electable but upon seeing that a state like Iowa can support him overwhelmingly that he is a viable candidate.
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I wonder how much of this is 'real' vote shifting away from another candidate, and how much is undecideds getting that final push.
 
I've been the rounds of my usual political haunts, which are pretty much all on the Democratic side of the fence if not farther left yet, and it's my considered opinion that Hillary has lost it. No, strike that- Obama has won it. Unless something really unpleasant comes out between now and Feb. 5, he will not merely win Super-Duper Tuesday, but win it pulling away.

I think Bill can smell it, he is, after all, one of the most talented politicians alive, and I think he told Hillary, and I think she lost it a bit in the debate, and almost lost it completely today in front of the cameras.

I don't think it was just winning Iowa; I think it was winning Iowa with enough votes to guarantee a win the state in the general election. Independents, and even some Republicans, flocked to vote for him. People are really enthusiastic. They also think things are screwed up, and want things to change- and they want to make sure that everyone in Washington gets the message. What could be more clear?
 
Hilary is the most polarizing figure in the race. I've always felt the best shot Republicans had to win the 2008 presidency was to be lucky enough to have Hilary out their to drum up grass roots Republican support. No candidate will mobilize the Republican base like Clinton.

The general public would tolerate a huge "Swift Boat Style (SBS)" attack on her, not so much on Obama. Don't get me wrong, Obama will mobilize an unsavory part of the Republican base, but it will be under the covers and while overt SBS attacks on Clinton would get endorsements from the Republican leadership, not so on Obama.
 
Her crying only matters because, ultimately, it is about her...not about someone else or something larger, IMO. WHichi is the entire problem with her campaign and her candidacy. It is all about her. It is a return to her 1990's (and Bill), it is about her vidication as a politician. It is about her inevitability. It is about her "change". It is about her experience.

Now, admittedly, politicians at that level are pretty self invovled. No doubt Obmama, Edward, Huckabee, etc. have pretty monumnetal egos...however they seem to have been able to sublimate thier ego driven need into how they have shapped their message and caught the mood of the American people. Hillary's problem is that when she discribes her vision of America, the mood of the voters, her reason for wanting to be preisident, the changes she would bring...it comes down to American empathizing and trusting her, rather than she empathizing and trusting Americans, IMO.
 
My first thoughts are, 'Did Bill really want to be first lady anyway?'

That led to, 'If Bill is so important to the campaign, as many think he is, then what does that say about Hillary?'

Then I thought, 'If so many uber-liberals on this forum think it is over for Hillary, then it probably is.'
 
Schneibster said:
I've been the rounds of my usual political haunts, which are pretty much all on the Democratic side of the fence if not farther left yet, and it's my considered opinion that Hillary has lost it. No, strike that- Obama has won it. Unless something really unpleasant comes out between now and Feb. 5, he will not merely win Super-Duper Tuesday, but win it pulling away.

I think Bill can smell it, he is, after all, one of the most talented politicians alive, and I think he told Hillary, and I think she lost it a bit in the debate, and almost lost it completely today in front of the cameras.

I don't think it was just winning Iowa; I think it was winning Iowa with enough votes to guarantee a win the state in the general election. Independents, and even some Republicans, flocked to vote for him. People are really enthusiastic. They also think things are screwed up, and want things to change- and they want to make sure that everyone in Washington gets the message. What could be more clear?
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Dang! I finally agree word for word with the Schneibster. (pinches self)

We'll see what happens when the NH votes come in.
 
Judging from the early returns from NH, it seems that the reports of Mrs. Clinton's demise have been grossly exaggerated.
 
yup, it appears crying a river is the way to go.

I guess Bill will have to back track on his outrage at the press.

As for Hillary being polarizing, you bet.

if she wins the nomination, as much as I am a Democrat at heart, and though as a Canadian my opinion counts for nothing on it, I would have to take a serious look at who won the REP nod.

McCain versus Clinton, I would vote for McCain.

TAM:)
 
<old timey goodness>Hillary's cabinet ought to be filled with Hamburger Helper and canned peas</old timey goodness>

I kid, I kid. I have always liked McCain, and always disliked Hillary. But I don't think there's a whole lotta difference between the two. It's probably an admission of sexism, something I'm not terribly proud of. But there it is.
 
As much as I don't really care for Hilary, the fact that her election would drive the right-wing nutjobs bonkers does have its appeal.

I honestly thought Bill Richardson is one of the best qualified, but he ain't got a snowballs chance.
 
corplinx said:
I would wait to see who their cabinets are.
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Good advice.

Spindrift said:
As much as I don't really care for Hilary, the fact that her election would drive the right-wing nutjobs bonkers does have its appeal.

I honestly thought Bill Richardson is one of the best qualified, but he ain't got a snowballs chance.
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Bill Richardson, for me, is too much of the nice guy. That person has a role, VP, ambassador, secretary of state, but not President. He always wants NO BICKERING, NO ARGUING, "lets talk about this" should be his slogan...works sometimes, but sometimes a country leader has to act instead of talk.

Just my opinion though.

TAM:)
 
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