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StopSylviaBrowne - Your Help With 1996 Predictions

RSLancastr

www.StopSylvia.com
RSLancastr
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A lot of you have asked how you could help with the StopSylviaBrowne site. Here's a way!

Since before the SSB site opened up, I have planned on putting together a series of articles examining her "annual prediction" lists.

Unfortunately, time constraints, along with other things, have kept me from doing so. It is more time-consuming that you might think, researching each claim to the degree I would like.

As a result, to speed things up, I have decided to try an experiment, asking the JREF Forum to provide some research and input. I am going to post her list of predictions for 1996 (the earliest year for which I have her list), and ask you all for help.

Anyone who is interested, I would ask that you do the following in this thread. For each prediction you wish to research or comment upon, add a post, including the following:

1. The category and prediction (see list in second post).

2. Your "score" for the prediction. Currently, those scores are WRONG, UNKNOWN/UNKNOWABLE, RIGHT, COMMON SENSE (for predictions like "There will be earthquakes in California") and ALREADY KNOWN (Such as predicting a medical breakthrough which had already been published in JAMA). Those categories may change, but they will do for a start.

3. Your reasons for giving the prediction the score you have.

4. Links which back up the score you gave the reading. The more authoritative the link, the better. Use Wikipedia sparingly.​

Please don't worry about how you phrase your posts, as I will most likely rewrite everything into a consistent tone.

Please do not be offended if the score I give a particular prediction differs from yours.

Anyway, this is an experiment. I am open to all suggestions.

I will combine any research I have already performed, the research and input I receive in this thread, and come up with my own verdict. I will also be adding comments giving the prediction context within other predictions she has made on the same topic (eg: "She's predicted this three years in a row now.." or "Two years ago she predicted just the opposite").

There are already some articles out there researching some of her annual lists. If there are any for the year in question, I would suggest/request that you NOT read them until your research its done. It would be best to each do our own original research, rather than letting earlier research possibly effect our judgement. I will be taking those earlier articles into account when coming up with my verdicts.

Also, please don't get ahead of the class and start a thread about another year. Let's take this one year at a time.

Finally, don't worry if your research into a prediction leads you to a differnt conclusion than someone else who has already posted theirs. I hope to get as many and varied opinions as possible before deciding how to write each prediction up.

I plan to place copies of this thread on other message boards, including (I hope) some which are more sympathetic to Browne, in order to get the most varied input possible.

A final note about scoring a prediction: Unless the prediction specifies a different time frame, I plan on judging each prediction based on the year for which the prediction was made. In other words, If the prediction says "Fred Smith will die," I will assume she meant that he will die in 1996. If she says "Fred Smith will die in the next three years" then I would judge it based on THAT time span.

Sorry for the rambling OP.

Now, on to the predictions, in the second post!
 
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Here they are: Browne's predictions for 1996, created in 1995.

Politics
POLIT-1: Bill Clinton will be reelected President.
POLIT-2: Bob Dole will be the Republican Presidential candidate.
POLIT-3: Republican party starts moving towards being moderately liberal.
POLIT-4: Another "Million Man March" in the South to show solidarity.
POLIT-5: More states will accept Gay marriages. Supreme Court issues a favorable ruling.​

Economy

ECONO-1: Federal budget will not balance in 7 years, more like 10 years.
ECONO-2: Our economy improves: more jobs, more small businesses flourish.
ECONO-3: Stock market keeps rising until February, then levels out and begins to go down. Not a plunge, just a downward trend.
ECONO-4: Interest rates go down.​

International

INATL-1: The war in Bosnia is not really squelched until late July; troops are sent in.
INATL-2: A nuclear test moratorium is imposed on France.​

Weather

WEATH-1: California is in for a 2 year dry spell. Some rains in February, but not much.
WEATH-2: Colorado gets close to flood conditions due to excessive snow and moisture.
WEATH-3: April brings flooding to some Southern states.​

Health

HEALT-1: Gradual health reforms begin in consideration of the elderly and physically challenged.
HEALT-2: A preliminary vaccine for AIDS is tested on a control group; findings are favorable.
HEALT-3: A new type of pneumonia virus is found that seems impervious to drugs.
HEALT-4: Water pollution is found to be a problem in the Southern states.​

Earthquakes

QUAKE-1: Mexico has another large earthquake in December, near 6.9 magnitude.
QUAKE-2: Southern California has two small quakes, one in January and another in October.
QUAKE-3: Northern California has a small quake in February, near Livermore or Modesto.​

Celebrities

CELEB-1: Sandra Bullock gets married, it only lasts 4 months. She then goes away to a retreat to regroup.
CELEB-2: John Travolta has another baby.
CELEB-3: Sylvester Stallone marries a woman not in modeling whom he meets at a horse ranch.
CELEB-4: Liz Taylor finds a new man, from the world of cosmetics.​
 
First of all, fantastic idea, I like it very much but do you really need our help when we've already sent you all the transcripts of the Montel episodes?

Ah, well. Ok, here I go again.

Politics (this is from a 2004 episode commemorating 2, 500 shows- and I found the entire thing and how they did it hilarious since if you were reviewing all the predictions an even mediocre psychic had made, you'd need 2500 more shows.)

...

What about the Oklahoma City bombing? Will we get some justice in America this year?

Ms. BROWNE: (Originally Aired January 2, 1996) No, no, we're going to get some justice with this.
WILLIAMS: OK, so somebody's going to jail over this one?
Ms. BROWNE: Oh, you bet, two people, two people.
WILLIAMS: Death penalty? Death penalty?
Ms. BROWNE: Death penalty, gone.
WILLIAMS: Two people were arrested and sent to prison for the Oklahoma City bombing. Last August, Terry Nichols received a life sentence, barely escaping the death penalty. And in June of 2001, Timothy McVeigh was executed.

...

It's a prediction becaus Montel is clearly asking about "this year" on an episode that aired the 2nd day of 1996. Notice how delibrately vague she is about predicting that two people would get the death penalty and when.

Nethertheless, I'd call it a FALSE because neither Timothy McVeigh nor Terry Nichols were tried in 1996 and Nichols didn't get the death penalty, as she is clearly suggesting.
 
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Celebrities

CELEB-1: Sandra Bullock gets married, it only lasts 4 months. She then goes away to a retreat to regroup.
CELEB-2: John Travolta has another baby.
CELEB-3: Sylvester Stallone marries a woman not in modeling whom he meets at a horse ranch.
CELEB-4: Liz Taylor finds a new man, from the world of cosmetics.
Click to expand...
1-Failure. Sandra Bullock didn't get married until 2005. She married Jesse James (I am not making this up). They are still married.
2-Failure. John Travolta has given birth to no offspring himself. However, his spouse gave birth to Jett in 1992, and then to Ella Bleu, but not until 2000.
3-Eh. He married former model Jennifer Flavin, but not until 1997. No information on where he met her.
4-Geez, how could "Liz Taylor finds a new man" NOT be true? However, failed; Liz certainly did not remarry in 1996 (making that a red-letter year), though she did get a divorce from her then-current hubby, Larry Fortensky, whose forte was labor organizing rather than cosmetics (he was with the Teamsters).
 
EeneyMinnieMoe said:
First of all, fantastic idea, I like it very much but do you really need our help when we've already sent you all the transcripts of the Montel episodes?
Click to expand...
Thanks, EMM, but this has nothing to do with any Montel episodes.

I put up the list (in Post #2) of her official predictions for 1996.

I am looking for help in researching these predictions, and these only.
 
Spektator said:
1-Failure. Sandra Bullock didn't get married until 2005. She married Jesse James (I am not making this up). They are still married.
Click to expand...

I found the same things, but do you have links to back this up? I found the info within mini-biographies on IMDB.com, but I would like to have something a bit more substantial, since IMDB, like Wikipedia, is user-maintained, at least in the mini-bios.

Also, Browne said that Liz Taylor would "find a new man," not "marry a new man," so this one cannot be quickly written off as WRONG, but as UNKNOWN, unless someone finds something which would make it TRUE.
 
POLIT-1: Bill Clinton will be reelected President.
POLIT-2: Bob Dole will be the Republican Presidential candidate.

Assuming this was taped in December 2005, my father was making the same predictions, with equal success. Dole was considered an early front runner, certainly more credible than Gramm and Buchanan. As every CNN viewer knows, incumbents have much higher chances of being elected than their challengers and in a race between Clinton and Dole, it would be very reasonable to assume Clinton would be reelected.

POLIT-3: Republican party starts moving towards being moderately liberal.

Very vague, impossible to concretely disprove. I'd call it NOT APPLICABLE.

POLIT-4: Another "Million Man March" in the South to show solidarity.

None that I've ever heard of. None that the Nation of Islam cares to mention, either: http://www.noi.org/history_of_noi.htm

POLIT-5: More states will accept Gay marriages. Supreme Court issues a favorable ruling.

Not in 1994. Massachusetts is, as of now, still the only state in the Union to have gay marriages. As a matter of fact, because of 2004 referendums on the issue, many more states have outlawed gay marriage.

The Supreme Court has never ruled favorably on gay marriage; marriage is a state's right, as stipulated in the Constitution. That's why gay marriage and domestic partnerships law differs so widely from state to state.
 
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RSLancastr said:
I found the same things, but do you have links to back this up? I found the info within mini-biographies on IMDB.com, but I would like to have something a bit more substantial, since IMDB, like Wikipedia, is user-maintained, at least in the mini-bios.
Click to expand...

Here you go :D:


CONGENIAL SANDRA BULLOCK SPEEDS DOWN AISLE

BYLINE: BY DEREK ROSE DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

SECTION: NEWS; Pg. 3

LENGTH: 263 words


NOW SHE'S MRS. Congeniality.

Actress Sandra Bullock wed her bad-boy boyfriend, tattooed reality TV star Jesse James, at a horse ranch Saturday in California wine country.
More than 300 friends and family attended the sunset wedding, including Metallica frontman James Hetfield, actors Jamie Lee Curtis, William Shatner and Regina King and "George Lopez" star Constance Marie, "Entertainment Tonight" reported.

Bullock, who turns 41 later this month, wore a white lace dress designed by Angel Sanchez.

She walked down the aisle to a tape of her late mother, opera singer Helga Bullock, performing Bellini's "Casta Diva," according to "ET."
"She looked beautiful," one guest told People magazine. "She was incredibly happy."

James, 35, who stars on the Discovery Channel's "Monster Garage," drove to the ranch Saturday behind the wheel of one of his red monster pickup trucks.

Guests, who assembled under white circus tents, weren't told they were attending a wedding until they arrived.

Shuttle buses took the guests to the Folding Hills Ranch in Solvang, Calif., from hotels in nearby Santa Barbara.

At the ranch, they danced to the bluegrass music of Cousin Lovers and ate wedding cake baked by Bullock's sister, Gesine Prado.

This is the first walk down the aisle for the star of "Speed" and two "Miss Congeniality" flicks, though she was once engaged to actor Tate Donovan and romantically linked to Matthew McConaughey.

The groom has been to the altar twice before, with Karla James and porn star Janine Lindemulder. He has a son and two daughters from those marriages.
drose@nydailynews.com

And if someone demands empirical proof of Ms.Bullock's husband:

http://www.accesshollywood.com/assets/images/200704/200x150/27094.jpg
 
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ECONO-1: Federal budget will not balance in 7 years, more like 10 years.

UNKNOWN/UNKNOWABLE

The budget is worse than ever, however "more like 10 years" is ambiguous enough so that 50 years will be "more like 10 years" than it is like seven years. Of course no one would have read the original prediction to be "significantly more than 10 years."

ECONO-2: Our economy improves: more jobs, more small businesses flourish.

TRUE, this is awfully vague though and could be classed as COMMON SENSE. On the other hand, a lot of people do their best on this one and are still wrong...

ECONO-3: Stock market keeps rising until February, then levels out and begins to go down. Not a plunge, just a downward trend.

FALSE, the markets rose until mid-December then began a minor downward trend; by February the markets were well into a steep uptrend which flattened out around the end of February.

ECONO-4: Interest rates go down.
UNKNOWABLE or COMMON SENSE or FALSE. The fed funds rate was raised exactly once in 1996. However rates go up and down every day, so unless she is specifically referring to the fed rates it isn't possible to class this one. In general 1996 rates were up.
 
EeneyMinnieMoe said:
POLIT-1: Bill Clinton will be reelected President.
POLIT-2: Bob Dole will be the Republican Presidential candidate.

Assuming this was taped in December 2005, my father was making the same predictions, with equal success.
Click to expand...
I see now what has led to the confusion.

The list is not from a Montel episode. The list is from her official list of 1996 predictions, taken from an archived copy of a page on Browne's web site.

Dole was considered an early front runner, certainly more credible than Gramm and Buchanan.
Click to expand...
Ah, but can we find a link to an article which states that Dole was the early front runner, and how early, and in front by how much? If he was way ahead prior to Browne's making this list in November of 1995, I want to put that in the article.

As every CNN viewer knows, incumbents have much higher chances of being elected than their challengers and in a race between Clinton and Dole, it would be very reasonable to assume Clinton would be reelected. [/QUOTE]

Yes, but something I would like to find out is, how many times has an ecumbent run for a second term, and of those, how many lost? I think the second number is pretty small. If the country is doing fairly well (as it was in 95), the smart money is on the encumbent winning. I would like to first make sure that is true, and if so, find some links to back it up..

See why this would take me forever? It's why I need the help. :D

POLIT-4: Another "Million Man March" in the South to show solidarity.

None that I've ever heard of. None that the Nation of Islam cares to mention, either: http://www.noi.org/history_of_noi.htm
Click to expand...
There was a Million Woman March, a Million Youth March and a Millions More March, but none were in the south in 1996.

POLIT-5: More states will accept Gay marriages. Supreme Court issues a favorable ruling.

Not in 1994.
Click to expand...
Link? Or a page in a book? I found a chart in Wikipedia which shows gay marriage legislation in America, but I would like to be able to cite a more reliable source.
 
Oh, you want LINKS? Phooey.

For the budget deficit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms

It was briefly balanced by Clinton in 2000 (less than seven years) but by 2003 was back in deficit under Bush. So no matter you read the numbers, she was wrong.

The indices (DOW, NASDAQ, S & P 500) can be readily seen on YAHOO by clicking on Charts or New Charts.

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices

This is also the best proxy I know of for "more small businesses flourish."

For employment specifically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

Interest rates: For the Federal funds rates:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

The somewhat more consumer-driven LIBOR rates:
http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=141&a=627

There are zillions of rates out there, but the LIBOR rates drive quite a few credit cards and are also used in some definitions of "Prime rate."
 
> WEATH-1: California is in for a 2 year dry spell. Some rains in February, but not much.

Won't let me link so the http is watersupplyconditions.water.ca.gov/background.cfm

97 was El Nino.

96 was *slightly* below average. Some and not much are too vague to prove or disprove without more digging into the record which I'm not inclined to do right now but the 2 year dry spell clearly has her talking to the wrong spirits.
 
EeneyMinnieMoe said:
Here you go :D:

CONGENIAL [/SIZE]SANDRA BULLOCK SPEEDS DOWN AISLE
Click to expand...
Thanks, Eeney! But unless I missed it, thre was no link!

Bonus points for links to a resource available to anyone with an internet connection. If a Lexis-Nexis link is all we can find, I will go with it, but something the rest of us can see is better still.

Again, thanks!
 
Eeney, Spekktator, Christine, DrewD, Leftus (and anyone I missed), this is great! It's exactly what I was hoping for.

Keep 'em coming!
 
RSLancastr said:
Also, Browne said that Liz Taylor would "find a new man," not "marry a new man," so this one cannot be quickly written off as WRONG, but as UNKNOWN, unless someone finds something which would make it TRUE.
Click to expand...

You know, I think I can actually prove it WRONG. :D

Liz Taylor doing fine navigating no-man land
USA TODAY, April 16, 1996, Tuesday,, 552 words, Jeannie Williams


Elizabeth Taylor is on the lookout for a man again -- but not
to marry.

Still in the throes of her split from seventh husband Larry Fortensky,
Taylor quipped repeatedly about finding a new mate Monday as she
launched her Black Pearls fragrance tour at Macy's in Manhattan.

Asked how life is different without Fortensky, she told the crowd
of media and fans, "I'm single for the first time in quite a
few years. I'm managing to get along fine. It's strange, but I'm
fine." (Applause from crowd.)


Fortensky is doing "OK," she said. Maybe she had Larry in mind
as she kidded about doing a men's fragrance called "Rough Diamonds."

Holding her Maltese pup, Sugar, as she sat in a chair on a small
stage in the flower-decked store, Taylor said about the romantic
effects of Black Pearls, "So far, I'm alone. I have to test it
on somebody."

Suggesting it was inspired by a sunny beach, she said, "That's
where I'd like to be right now, holding somebody's hand. I don't
know whose." Is there a man on the horizon? She shaded her eyes,
said hopefully, "I don't see anyone."

When a questioner wondered whether she'd consider a Cuban husband,
she said, "Why not!" But asked if she'd wed again, she said,
"I don't think so." (Murmurs of disappointment from the crowd.)

...

A quick search of Liz Smith columns reveals that no man was rumored to have been dating Elizabeth Taylor until Rod Steiger in the January of 1998.
 
RSLancastr said:
WEATH-3: April brings flooding to some Southern states.​
Click to expand...

WRONG!

Below is a list of floods declared by all states to FEMA in 1996.

Of all the ones to be wrong about, this one is almost impossible. But she did it.

8 Floods in January
7 Floods in Feburary
2 Floods in March
0 Floods in April
4 Floods in June
7 Floods in July
4 Floods in August
3 Floods in September
6 Floods in October
4 Floods in November
3 Floods in December

Reference:
http://www.fema.gov/femaNews/disasterSearch.do?pageInfo.pageStart=301
 
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