carlson test and debunking randi

Whats your birthday?
important numbers are:
- friends and close relatives birthdays
- foes
-house you bought or live in
-jobcenter,school,uni,girlfriend, places where you are lucky or unlucky,important ages. Remember that there is more than one important. For those born on the 9th, the multiple numbers 3,6 and 9 should be important, and the number 8 and 4 and its series are more fatalistic.:)
For example I noticed that cities where the name numbers add up to 4, the people tend to be narrow minded,square, like Nottingham in UK, or Lisbon,Portugal, Zurich, Switzerland etc
Do friend's girlfriend's birthdays count? What about cousin's mother-in-law's? - I can get some its if I go with those. This numerology stuff is interesting ...
 
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I don't like the number of "outs" you give yourself idunno.

You tend to use terminology that boils down to "you may" or "you might" in your readings, which means that if you are incorrect you have an easy out.

You also said that if for example 9 is a special number for the person, then so is 3, 6, etc. That also gives you far too many outs and possible "hits"
 
Yes I just finished reading this thread and am also interested in the results.
 
Exactly. But you need a fairly sophisticated medical system in order to distinguish between the ailments that are treatable and the ailments that aren't (I admit that decapitation is pretty easy to tell from a viral infection, but I remind you of the second season of Blackadder. "Ointment! That's what you need when your head's been cut off!"). The first step to determining what personalities astrology is effective on is to establish whether there are any such personalities, and we don't know that until we've run the tests...



Yup, I'm back, and have sent all seven profiles to all seven participants. Looking at the profiles (informally), it looks like a classic Forer effect dataset (I think five of the seven are "talented" or "very talented"). I will post the profiles later for general information, when I have responses from the group.

If I missed or misrouted anything, please let me know.

Hi Doc

they are talented because they have output or creative element in their charts. Some of the charts are clear cut, so I would expect a good result.
I use expressions like #it should#= or# it may# cause i dont know if it really works or is Forer or any other effect. :)
 
I don't like the number of "outs" you give yourself idunno.

You tend to use terminology that boils down to "you may" or "you might" in your readings, which means that if you are incorrect you have an easy out.

You also said that if for example 9 is a special number for the person, then so is 3, 6, etc. That also gives you far too many outs and possible "hits"

see my previous post.
the 3 and 6 do not seem very imprtant in my life, only 9,4,and 8.
But age 34 ,a 7, was also important so...it may be WOW:)
 
Do friend's girlfriend's birthdays count? What about cousin's mother-in-law's? - I can get some its if I go with those. This numerology stuff is interesting ...

if they are important in your life for good or bad:)
 
they are talented because they have output or creative element in their charts.

Er, that's an interesting causal explanation. Unfortunately, it may well be an "explanation" of something that is contrary to fact. I find the observation that 5/7 of the charts have "output or creative element" to be a more likely indicator that the test involves a substantial degree of false positives.
 
Er, that's an interesting causal explanation. Unfortunately, it may well be an "explanation" of something that is contrary to fact. I find the observation that 5/7 of the charts have "output or creative element" to be a more likely indicator that the test involves a substantial degree of false positives.

explain false positive please?
as you may have seen output is not the onlyt thing i mentioned in the charts.
Can you give us the results?
Im back in 18 hours...;)
 
explain false positive please?

If you suggest that 72% of the population is "talented" or "very talented," (72% of our sample charts have the elements you named and interpreted as "talent") while in reality only about 20% of the population is, then you have overpredicted talent by a minimum of 52%.

Can you give us the results?

Not yet -- I am still waiting on two of the participants' selections.
 
TEST RESULTS ARE IN!

Let me start (because this post will get long) by thanking both idunno and the seven
participants who I must refrain from naming, but whom I appreciate no less for their anonymity.

The results were exactly at chance; one person correctly identified his/her own profile from the list.

I should also note that most of the participants were not at all impressed by the accuracy of any of the profiles. Six of the seven stated explicitly that they were chosing the "least bad," three in exactly those words. One wished for a "none-of-the-above" choice. I feel I can now state that the results were exactly as I anticipated and that this illustrates to me that confidence in astrology is somewhat misplaced, especially given idunno's previous comments about how clear-cut these particular readings were. But I invite idunno to give his further thoughts.

I should also noted that these were based on *Chinese* astrology. If idunno (or anyone else) wishes to attempt another set of readings using other systems, I can certainly scrub and forward those profiles as well.

For the benefit of those playing along at home, feel free to try to match dates to readings. Here are the participants' birth dates:
  • Solomon -- 7th June 1956, Montpelier (France) 17:00
  • Hercules -- 9th October 1972, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (UK) 10:00
  • Atlas -- 20th December 1981, Montreal (Canada) 15:20
  • Zeus -- 30th March 1952, London (UK) 14:45
  • Achilles -- 15th October 1956, Elmhurst, Illinois (USA) 08:52
  • Mercury -- 4th June 1974, Hayti, Missouri (USA) 10:00
  • Billy Batson -- 18th May 1966, Honolulu, HI (USA) 20:17

... and here are the scrubbed profiles distributed to the seven participants.

Here are the profiles, based on Chinese astrology; I've cleaned up some of the language, left some as-is. Please identify yourself as best you can (i.e. by number: 1--7).


#1

competitive, but gets too much support from relatives, especially old ones. May be spoiled.
talent for publicity but lacking motivation or ambition due to excessive protection.
should seek friends to escape family influence.
academic talent,cunning and technical.
nice and pleasant, but lacks opportunities for self expression of talents. intuitive and wise.

#2

rebelious and revolutionary, extrovert, original, creative,innovative, loving relation with an offspring.
ambitious, disciplined, but conflicts with superiors and authority figures.
idealist, friendly, money is very important but a SOURCE OF STRESS as it doesnt come easy.
opposite sex very important but its hard to find the right partner.
however marriage itself is good.
little support in life.

#3

potencial for making a lot of money but should avoid business partnerships.
pleasant person,righteous, honest,thrifty,opposite sex favorable but marriage not.
Marries the right person but somehow marriage doesnt work out well.
older friends.
a lot of support from parents but they also provide discipline.
very intuitive.
not very creative or creativity has no opportunities for expression.

#4

a creative and talented person, but talents are hidden, not visible to the public.He must create his own oportunities for performance, because they dont come easy till age 44.
he has a rebellious side but this side is not visible either unless he makes an effort.
he has conflicts with autority figures like father, boss, police,establishment.
but most importantntly, this is the chart of a leader. He could go into politics as he is capable of anything to get power if he likes power.Leadership is the key to this chart.
his basic chart has no resource meaning that he gets little support from parents and superiors,however, he had this element in luck cycles betwen ages 5-25, so he got some support in this period and was more studious.betwen age 25 and now money and women have been more important to him than knowledge.
he has many rivals in life and is competitive but he seems like the winner here as he has leadrship qualities.From age 25 he had little support from others and should avoid business partnerships all his life as he risks being cheated.Better go t alone.
He can be stubborn and solitary as he finds hard see others points of view


#5

He is a very talented person, artistically or otherwise.
a performer.
very rebellious with problems with authority figures and opposite sex.
extrovert,agressive, a bit insensitive to others feelings.
may care about the environment and wildlife.
studies not easy but favorable.
has difficulty getting support from otheers, like parents.
at best self made person, idependent.
doesnt rely much on others.
ideal lover likely to show up but temper causes troubles with lover.
lovers envy the persons performance, so do superiors.
marriage unfavoable, may divorce or stay single.

#6

His relatives, especially grandparents, and superiors admire the persons talent and performance.
revolutionary, original,creative, but a bit drastic and rebellious, a good performer.
friendly, good student, temperamental,spouse a bit controlling, but righteous and honest.
help and support from parents and elder relatives but not the right sort as they give what the subject wants rather than whats good for him.
disciplined and ambiytious but may spoil things with his revoluitionary spirit.

#7

a lot of support from family but not always the right kind.Parents may give the subject what he wants rather than what he really needs, so maybe spoiled person.
academic talent but lacking ambition to go high.
friendly, pleasant, known for his knowledge. self expression not the best, nor creative, or talent is blocked .
 
I should also note that most of the participants were not at all impressed by the accuracy of any of the profiles. Six of the seven stated explicitly that they were chosing the "least bad," three in exactly those words.

Minor emendation. Participant number 7 just wrote and said that s/he had written that, then deleted it as being unresponsive to the original question. That brings the total to 7 of 7, counting the inevitable Monday morning quarterback.
 
My thanks to idunno, drkitten and all the participants as well.

Now I'm eager to hear what idunno has to say about these results.

Also, out of interest (and since the test is over) can we see the un-scrubbed readings drkitten?
 
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I'm getting strong vibes connecting the profiles with the pseudonyms. I was hopping to identify the profiles to the owners but the bovinity waves seem to be completely swamping reality. I'm afraid I can only match the profiles to the ID's they were created for. I'll send DrKitten a PM with my matches to see how I did.
 
My thanks to idunno, drkitten and all the participants as well.

Now I'm eager to hear what idunno has to say about these results.

Also, out of interest (and since the test is over) can we see the un-scrubbed readings drkitten?

hi
although in recent days i got strong evidence that CA works i must accept thse negative results if the people involved were honest.
Humans have more in common than they like to think, which i believe makes astrological interpretation subject to all kinds of comments.Maybe the current tests are not the ideal i dont know.

Having said that i m reading a western astrology book in German by a german.
The good thing about German Ernsthaft is that they never write crap.
It is the most accurate book i ever came across, and it was meant only to help me with my german.
So i want to test western astrology and especially Astrocartography, which shows you the best places in thevworld for just about anything.
IE: S. Stallone has Jupiter in MC in New York, where he made movies where he has a good guy vibe, and when he moved to Hollywood where he has Mars inthe same position, he made rather marcial movies and played rather martial characters like Rambo,Rocky...
Since Americans move a lot this would be a great test.
cheers:)
 
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TEST RESULTS ARE IN!

Let me start (because this post will get long) by thanking both idunno and the seven
participants who I must refrain from naming, but whom I appreciate no less for their anonymity.

The results were exactly at chance; one person correctly identified his/her own profile from the list.

I should also note that most of the participants were not at all impressed by the accuracy of any of the profiles. Six of the seven stated explicitly that they were chosing the "least bad," three in exactly those words. One wished for a "none-of-the-above" choice. I feel I can now state that the results were exactly as I anticipated and that this illustrates to me that confidence in astrology is somewhat misplaced, especially given idunno's previous comments about how clear-cut these particular readings were. But I invite idunno to give his further thoughts.

I should also noted that these were based on *Chinese* astrology. If idunno (or anyone else) wishes to attempt another set of readings using other systems, I can certainly scrub and forward those profiles as well.

For the benefit of those playing along at home, feel free to try to match dates to readings. Here are the participants' birth dates:


... and here are the scrubbed profiles distributed to the seven participants.

i would like the participants to tell where i got it wrong and where i was vague so i can check my reading skills and know what they expect from astrology:)
 
I can't help noticing that despite the fact gender was specifically excluded, 4 out of the 7 use the words "he" and/or "his". Fortunately this doesn't invalidate the test because this actually biases the test in Idunno's favour, since it increases the chance of people guessing correctly. For example, any girls had a 1/3 chance of guessing right rather than 1/7.
 
I can't help noticing that despite the fact gender was specifically excluded, 4 out of the 7 use the words "he" and/or "his". Fortunately this doesn't invalidate the test because this actually biases the test in Idunno's favour, since it increases the chance of people guessing correctly. For example, any girls had a 1/3 chance of guessing right rather than 1/7.

I used "he" for all charts just forthe sake of simplicity;)
 
Do friend's girlfriend's birthdays count? What about cousin's mother-in-law's? - I can get some its if I go with those. This numerology stuff is interesting ...

today is an 8 and i got bad news about the test...:)
 

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