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Global warming

Does anyone posting in this thread actually think there isn't money to be made for the pro-gw groups as well as the anti-gw groups? If there is a way to exploit peoples sensibilities, someone will do it.

P.S. There's always a way.
 
You know, I specifically asked you what was a "put down." You never answered. I never mentioned any consensus, and neither did Megalodon. So what are you talking about here?

Looks like a strawman argument to me.

So basically we should just ignore logical fallacies? What are you saying here? Do you have the slightest clue what you're implying? You're implying that we should abandon thinking. Not just a real great start, Al. That doesn't work for me.

People who don't have an agenda don't accuse people of being nasty without being able to prove it, Al. I asked you to present specific criticisms. You didn't. I guess you don't have any. If you don't, then where did this claim come from?

Apples and oranges, Al. Also, what's this about the CO2 level being "much higher," without the temperature being "radically higher?" You got anything to actually cite that wasn't written by an oil company shill that shows this? Any of that, you know, evidence stuff?

Gee, I dunno, maybe it was that little thing they had then, I think they called it World War 2. You never heard of that, right? And then they had to rebuild Europe afterward, and Asia; you know, all that stuff that got bombed. And then people started realizing that there was a lot of pollution being made, and started yelling about it. I seem to recall a little something about that in the 1960s. Maybe it's just me.

Sulphates don't have a long half-life in the air, Al. You have to keep pumping them out, or they go away pretty quick. That would be some of that, you know, science and stuff.

So, basically, because we don't know everything, we don't know anything. This is the same argument the cretinists use, Al. I thought you didn't like them.

See, it's mischaracterizations of opposing arguments like this that irritates people, Al. Anybody who knows what the real argument is in this case can spot this a mile off.

If you've only got one measurement, then you question it, you look it over, you pound on the top of the box to see if the meters are maybe stuck. But when you measure that same thing five or six completely different ways and get the same answer from all of them, then it becomes a lot clearer what the facts are. And the thing is, Al, we've got those five or six different ways. And they all say the same thing. So when you concentrate on one of them, and ignore the others, what is that?

And another one. Every time you go look this up, it turns out a coupla guys said, well, maybe if things are just like this, we might be headed for an ice age. I think we oughta go check it out. And the media trumped that up into a big headline, and the guys are like, where did you get that? We never said that. We just said maybe we oughta go check it out. But now it's like, all the scientists said this. They didn't. All the newspapers did.

I thought it was all "urban heat islands," Al. Losing the thread of the argument a bit there?

Well, gee, Al, the CO2 concentration seems to be rising, and the isotopes (measured two different ways) say that's carbon that hasn't been where it can absorb C14 from the atmosphere for a long, long time. Anybody can go check out the figures for how much CO2 we're making; it's pretty simple. Economists keep track of stuff like that. So given we know we're making this amount of CO2, and given the concentration is rising that much, and given the isotope results, I guess it looks like we are making the CO2 levels rise. And given all the really obvious physics above, which you still haven't said anything about, gee, I guess that really does mean humans are causing the rise in temperature.

Did you have some point here?

Who ever said that? Gimme a source, Al. I just don't see it. I haven't heard it. I think you either have listened to someone who didn't know what they're talking about, or you're obfuscating. Which is it, Al?

Al, nobody ever said CO2 forcing is the only forcing. Again, who ever said that? You know, that evidence stuff.

What's going to happen tomorrow ain't climate, Al. It's weather. Global warming is not weather.

A link that provides answers to every point you've brought up here, and a lot more besides, is produced. Have you read the articles at that link, Al? Are you actually interested in the evidence, or are you just saying you are because it sounds good?

Schneibster,

'Well, gee, Schneibster, I guess if you can't understand something simple like the fact that what we grown-ups call "talking down" to people is really patronising (look the big word up in the dictionary if you don't understand it, Schneibster), I can't help you.'

or, as you more succinctly put it, 'That would be some of that, you know, science and stuff.'

Basically, bloody patronising.

This is a long post and it deserves a detailed response. I will post one hopefully some time tonight.

However, one thing I would like an apology for right now. That is your strawman argument that I advocated not exposing logical fallacies. I certainly did not. I just said that repeatedly giving the same climate information to climate "deniers" did not seem a plausible explanation for terseness, since I had seen members patiently point out any number of logical fallacies again and again to other errant posters, on other subjects. You don't seem to tire of that; it's only when climate issues are addressed when the patronising patient-kindergarten-teacher or angry-elder voice seem to come into play.

What I also object to is the implication that because I have expressed some doubt about this serious issue, or at least made my mind up, that I am an unreliable thinker likely to espouse any number of junk ideas.

However, that aside, I am happy to converse in a reasonable, measured and adult tone if you are, without sarcasm or down-talking.

I'll reply in greater detail later on.
 
This quote is just great. He says "Unaided judgmental forecasts by experts have no value" because amoungts other things "People confuse correlation with causation". Is he actually saying that the IPCC scientists confuse correlation with causation, a science 101 topic? He really cannot be serious.

Then to top that, this;

This is deeply ironic. But shows a complete and utter lack of knowlege about the scientific method. With his background in Marketing thats acceptable, but why is he even injecting himself in something that is clearly way above his head.

Obviously the latest "expert" paid for and sent out by people with agendas.

Is he a heavyweight?

Yes, he is a heavyweight.
If you just do not like his paper on the IPCC, continue to blast him in this discussion but.... then use him next time you are debating the "war on terror". :D

But it looks to me like the evidence based forecasting approach is well suited to the problems of climate science.

He wrote the handbook (40 plus contributing arthors) started several journals, has an encyclopedic website, and has published on numerous subjects. Start with wikipedia and go from there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armstrong,_J._Scott

In 2003 Armstrong gave a BBC radio interview, applying his investigations of forecasting to "the war on terror". The BBC reported that "unaided judgments by college students were no better than chance. But when they asked experts... they were no more accurate than the students. Based on the research to date, then, discussions about what to do in situations such as in Iraq, are based on worthless forecasts!" [2].
  • Armstrong has made contributions to rule-based forecasting, conflict simulated interaction, structured analogies, decomposition by causal forces, auditing procedures for forecasting, and relative absolute error (See #Links to Full-Text Papers).[2]
There is a diverse group of subjects that he has applied his methods to. No evidence of oil companies here!

http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/special interest.html

I'm afraid he is quite serious.

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
We conducted an audit of Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of the total of 140 principles. The forecasting procedures that were used violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.
Yep, he is serious. Sorry about that.

Climateaudit.org discussion here.
 
Once upon a time this cite -- in the science section of a skeptical forum no less -- would have boggled my mind. Instead, with bleak amusement and a ho-hum, I add marketing professor to the list of goofy cites that I've seen on jref posted by pseudo-skeptics that includes (no joke): a bumbling associate economics professor, Lyndon Larouche, Malloy/junkscience, Michael Crichton ad nauseum, an oil industry businessman :boxedin:, a coal mining engineer, right-wing lobbyist DCI and countless other bags of free market hot air, anonymous bloggers, "here", paid Exxon shills, the Czech president (who freely admits to ignoring scientific evidence), and last but certainly not least, a construction worker.

Varwoche come on down!

Lets see if varwoche can produce evidence of the "oil industry businessman" that he failed to produce last time.

Or maybe he's just the cowardly liar that I take him to be.
 
I need a friggin list to keep up here. Will everybody that is 100% sure that Global warming because of CO2 produced by people please raise their hand? Then post the proof that convinced you, then link to the source, and then pat yourself on the back.

Thank you in advance.
 
Varwoche come on down! Lets see if varwoche can produce evidence of the "oil industry businessman" that he failed to produce last time.

Or maybe he's just the cowardly liar that I take him to be.
It's perplexing that you persist with this nonsense, given that I posted solid evidence, as opposed to your unsupported spleen venting. If you have new evidence, I'll be glad to consider it though I suggest that the thread you devoted to the topic would be the best place for it.

And speaking of perplexing, I welcome you to clarify some of your other whimsical rants:
  • Here you cite a construction worker, claim he is an oceanographer, and then ditch when exposed.
  • Here you falsify a quote and refuse to correct the record.
  • Here you cite non-posts as evidence. (Are you still a Rasputin adherent? ;) )
  • Here you are exposed making stuff up ex nihilo, and ditch when exposed.
  • Here again you make stuff up and and ditch when exposed.
  • Here your "debate" tactics are challenged and you ditch.
  • Here you wave M&M as a magical talisman to "debunk" any and all GW studies presented, including studies that postdate M&M that you "don't have time to read".
  • Here is where your virulent anti-science agenda takes a truly surreal turn, accusing climate scientists of being part of a broad Marxist cabal.
Sorry Diamond, but you aren't within shouting distance of being taken seriously. You do a good job of disruption though.
 
Great, Al, you're going to "rebut" physics. I can't wait.

I posted your own words. I don't see another way to interpret them. You didn't explain, you asked for an apology- for an offense you didn't prove exists. Looks like another strawman, there, Al.
 
Heavyweight in economics? Well he is a Marketing professor, kind of similar. But you would have though Wharton would have made him an actual economics prof. if he was such a heavyweight.

He has no science background, no background in climatology.

And when you look in to this "heavyweight" claim it just doesn't hold up, at all.

Armstrong cites himself more than anybody else cites him.

http://ideas.repec.org/e/c/par65.html



Just one example from the link. So his 2001 paper is only cited by himself. In 6 years nobody else found his work usefull, apart from himself.

The paper you posted cites himself more than any paper. His own citations are around a 1/3rd of all the footnotes. And that ironic because he accused scientists of citing their own UN report in his questionaire.

A quick google search turns up almost nothing about him. His wiki page is slim and inaccurate (he didn't predict the 2004 election for example). Reading the report, is interesting because he offer little evidence for such a huge claim. His main point seems to be that the actual report does not have sufficient detail and he made attempt to look in to or understand the models other than reading the report.

He seems to like to promote his own ideas and methodologies, but other people are not many people are bighting.

Amazing what a certain amount of skepticism can turn up in just a few minutes.

I read it here first; statistics is not a science. Interesting. Just as interesting is the custom in this forum when in doubt, attack. Always attack.

Would you also consider W. Edward Deming insignificant? He was not an engineer yet was instrumental in rebuilding Japan's business and manufacturing economy after World War II to the status of bringing the Big 3 to it's knees.

Can you name any field of science not reliant on statistics, or any area of modern society for that matter? In fact, statistical science, though crudely applied, dates back thousands of years.

Forecasting is not something Armstrong made up. A statistician knows this, but then, you aren't a statistician and therefore not qualified to comment (sorry for the ad hom).

A statistician designs experiments, collects, analyzes, and interprets numerical data among other things. That could include but is not limited to climatology. To say Armstrong is not qualified because he has no background in climatology is baseless. Just as statisticians are not climatologists, the inverse applies.

Here is supporting documentation on the subject matter contained in Armstrong's paper referred to as social networking. Indulge:
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/StupakResponse.pdf

If Armstrong's analysis on climate models is inadequate, then perhaps you can provide evidence to the contrary? Being familiar with models of a different sort, I am confident your results will be less than stellar. Prove me wrong, and when you've exhausted your resources, I will be happy to provide some useful information on climate models. As a guide, be sure to look for the word 'uncertainty' and be wary of 'proxies'. Always use statistical tools to evaluate the referenced material before posting.

In any event, since there seems to be much confidence in climate models, as there must be in order to propagate the Holy Writ of AGW, why not become a "proxy" for Al Gore and take up Armstrong's challenge:
http://theclimatebet.com/2007/06/16/a-global-warming-challenge/
Members in this forum can post their displeasure with Armstrong's analysis by commenting in the blog. Heck, you could even call him a denialist.

Edit: I missed your post Scheibster. Did you ever locate the experiments used to test the hypothesis of CO2 being the main driver of climate? What about the climate sensitivity, any word on that?
 
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It's perplexing that you persist with this nonsense, given that I posted solid evidence, as opposed to your unsupported spleen venting. If you have new evidence, I'll be glad to consider it though I suggest that the thread you devoted to the topic would be the best place for it.

Then go to it.

Please explain on that thread how Steve Mcintyre, who has never worked in the oil industry in any capacity can be an oil industry businessman.

There is no "solid evidence" at all, as you well know because you have been told repeatedly.

Its an ad hominem smear against Steve McIntyre to paint him as somehow "paid for" by an industry that is supposedly engaged in a conspiracy against the self-proclaimed defenders of the environment. And all because Steve McIntyre demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that the Mann Hockey Stick was a disgraceful and shoddy piece of trash that you are desperate to defend by any means.

Lets see this "evidence". Or shall we just take you for the liar that you are?

Here's that thread again the one that you bailed on because you couldn't produce any evidence for your repeated lying assertions.
 
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And denialist isn't even a word.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Search?search=denialist&go=Go

I know, I know, you Woos think that making up a word that a "cool in group considers a real word", you think that makes it a word. Maybe to you it does, but the majority of intelligent thinkers in the world would consider you dumb.

Consider the bolded sentence, and then consider the board you're posting on. See if you can't spot the cleverly hidden irony.
 
Please explain on that thread how Steve Mcintyre, who has never worked in the oil industry in any capacity can be an oil industry businessman.

BUSTED!!!

You owe an apology. Here's the real story:
McIntyre was the President and founder of Northwest Exploration Company Limited which merged with CGX Energy Inc., an oil and gas exploration company. McIntrye was a strategic advisor for CGX in 2000 through 2003

So, you've been caught saying something completely untrue. I guess we can throw out your entire position as unworthy of belief now. Thanks!
 
So, you couldn't find a logicall fallacy, let alone the "megacan"...

Nothing new.
 
No strawman there, Megalodon. Although some of the individual words may vary, I've seen pretty much those sorts of putdowns. I have actually seen the "consensus" staement used as the be-all and end-all of the argument. No discussion. Case closed.

But not here. Thus your ignoring of the answer and comment to Robinson was a strawman. You might not have intended it, but that's another thing.

The answering posts may get a little tetchy if the same questioner carries on being wilfully ignorant, but they aren't dismissive from the off.

Sorry, but I disagree. I didn't find the answers to the OP dismissive.

OK, what about those who say the CO2 concentration has been much higher in the prehistoric past, without the temperature being radically higher? Are they lying?

Show me a link with the data and I can talk about it. Like this is difficult, since I don't know what period you're refering to.

CO2 concentration has been rising pretty much steadily since the industrial revolution. After several decades of rises, the average yearly global temperature dropped fairly steadily year-on-year from approximately 1941 to 1975. We are told this is due to sulphate emissions creating a negative forcing. Why were sulphate emissions not seriously affecting the climate until the 1940s? They, too, were important industrial emissions. What caused the sulphate level to rise so dramatically in the 1940s that not only did they allay the temperature-increasing effect of the rising CO2 concentration, they reversed it? CO2 was still rising, after all.

Schneibster tackled this one already.

Assuming that sulphate emissions were gradually curtailed as a result of Clean Air policies, why do we not see a gradual lessening of the temperature decrease until CO2 begins to dominate again? Why the sudden, steady increase in temperature from 1975, instead of a curve as SOx dropped out and the still-increasing CO2 began to take over?

And this one also...

I humbly suggest "what we know about the world" is insufficient to predict the climate. I've seen a huge spread in predictions of the rate of increase, confusion as to whether the rise will continue perpetually or peter out, whether the Northern Hemisphere will become a desert or an ice-bowl. Current climate models do not postdict the Little Ice Age or the Medieval Warm Period, which were significant climatic events. However, they did not depend on CO2 as a forcing. Cloud formation seems to be all but absent in climate models, but is almost certainly an important forcing.

I could even agree, if we didn't have a couple of decades of observations in accordance with the models. This is what separates a theory from fluff. Predictions were made, they were in general correct. The theory stands provisionally, being adjusted where it was incorrect.

Scientists must have been doing something right.

And I have never, ever denied that.

And I have never claimed you did.

OK, this year, in the UK at least, is so far considerably cooler than last year, but I do appreciate the difference between weather and climate.

Here in Germany the seasons are all mixed up, and it has been cooler, warmer, rainier and dryer than last year, sometimes in the same week :D... and we still have half of it to go :)

However, there is the fact that a large number of weather stations in Siberia and in non-urban areas have ceased to be. They are no longer taking measurements at all. And yet all I've seen as a rebuttal to the urban heat island forcing is along the lines of, "Oh, that's irrelevant."

Well, that is irrelevant, since temperature can now be readily measured via satellite.

We do not know all the factors affecting climate, not by a long chalk. The 30s were pretty warm in the UK. Builders started to put water pipes on the outside of new houses because they believed there was never going to be a cold winter again. Global warming was happening - after all, the temperature had been steadily rising for 30 years. It was simple.

This was proved to be an incorrect decision during the chilly winters of the late 40s to the mid-70s, as water pipes burst all over the UK.

Again, weather vs climate. We don't put the pipes outside in Portugal, and I lived in the Algarve... It only takes one odd year...

In the 70s, climatologists just knew we were heading for another ice age. The temperature fell steadily for 30 years. That proved it. It was obvious.

Now it's getting silly... The global cooling was a media fad, not a global (or even american, for the US-centrics) scientific consensus. It was a hypothesis put out based on the observations, and showned to be wrong.

Not that the media cares.

Since then, the climate has been warming up for 30 years. That means global warming is here.

No. It's much more than that, and I think you know it by now.

Really, the simple fact that the mercury's higher than it was thirty years ago says absolutely jack about continued trends. I have never denied that recent years have been warmer than in my youth. That is both simple and obvious. Yes, I would be an idiot to deny that.

Never called you that to begin with...

Is it simple and obvious that human beings are causing the rise in temperature?

Yes, given the information we have available to us.

Is it simple and obvious that the temperature will continue to rise without limit?

And who proposed that?

Is it simple and obvious that carbon dioxide forcing is the only game in town? I don't think so.

Again, nobody said that, and you know it. It is the drive of the current warming, but it's not the only forcing in the system.

I'm all for recycling and cutting down pollution on a general principle: it would be nice to stop poisoning the earth. So basically, I'm happy to walk the walk. I'm just not convinced enough to talk the talk.

Well, I don't get any carbon credits for convincing you either :). The info is out there, generally available. People can make up their own minds.
 
I need a friggin list to keep up here. Will everybody that is 100% sure that Global warming because of CO2 produced by people please raise their hand? Then post the proof that convinced you, then link to the source, and then pat yourself on the back.

Thank you in advance.

I get from amateur calculations (mine) 5-20% of current GW due to CO2.

100% sure.... you have no takers so far on that one!:D
 
I read it here first; statistics is not a science. Interesting. Just as interesting is the custom in this forum when in doubt, attack. Always attack.

Now that we have firmly established that Armstrong is a heavyweight, does anyone care to discuss the theory and practice of his approach to the IPCC Chapter 8 findings?

Anyone is quite welcome, including construction workers. I even invite persons who may be lurking on JREF who are employed by oil companies.:D
 
Great, Al, you're going to "rebut" physics. I can't wait.

I posted your own words. I don't see another way to interpret them. You didn't explain, you asked for an apology- for an offense you didn't prove exists. Looks like another strawman, there, Al.

I thought I made myself pretty clear. I was trying to claim that the "repetition makes a poster tetchy" argument didn't seem to apply on a lot of other threads, where the same logical arguments are trotted out again and again with no apparent sign of annoyance. In those cases, mere repetition does not seem to bring about this tetchy reaction.

Somehow, you have chosen to read this as me pooh-poohing logical argument in its entirety. Along with this, you claim that I intend to try to "rebut" science. Doubtless, putting the verb in quotes is to imply that I actually said it.

All I asked for was

a) Some civility
b) Some answers

I have seen none of either. Instead, you seem determined to cast me as some wide-eyed, imbecilic, drool-spattered, anti-science, iconoclastic oil company shill, determined to bring the whole of logic to its knees.

I don't want to fall out with you, Schneibster, so I guess I won't be daring to post on any more climate threads. Well done, mate. You won.

Congratulations.
 
BUSTED!!! You owe an apology. Here's the real story:

So, you've been caught saying something completely untrue. I guess we can throw out your entire position as unworthy of belief now. Thanks!
Joe, while you are correct that Diamond is being untruthful, the wiki article is based on the same source document that I referenced -- the CGX annual report -- and thus sheds no new light.

And of course, the annual report is as clear as the day is long in the dead of summer in Barrow that (1) the company is exclusively in the oil and gas exploration business, (2) McIntyre founded CGX's predecessor company, and (3) McIntyre was a strategic advisor to CGX, and this fact was important enough to warrant being mentioned in the annual report. And even Diamond admits that McIntyre isn't a scientist and that he worked for CGX in a business capacity.

It's useful to realize that Diamond's debate tactics are based on making a lot of vitriolic noise, apparently predicated on the hopes that readers won't bother to read source documents and discover that his posts reliably contain numerous exaggerations, unsupported assertions, and outright fabrications.

Of course the fact that McIntyre was (is?) an oil industry businessman is not hugely important, as his bumbling work speaks for itself. (This entire surreal sub-debate originated from a parenthetical comment fer crying out loud.)
 
People need to think of climate change as Miamification of the Northern United States and Canada. If I can strut around downtown Chicago in January and rest under a palm tree while the gentle 85 degree wind blows through my hair as I sip on a margarita watching beautiful women jog by in bikinis; I wouldn't really care.... The only downside is the actually Miami may be under 20 feet of water and about 130 degrees F....
 

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